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diehardtwinsfan

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Everything posted by diehardtwinsfan

  1. diehardtwinsfan
    to respond to the original piece, Sports in general are seeing more "tanking" so to speak. There's value in those early picks and everyone knows it... it's far more valuable than a middling finish. In baseball, that's exacerbated by certain teams with resources to perpetually buy away the best FAs and extend their windows... it really does make it hard for the rest of the league to compete in that scenario. If you don't have a window of opportunity, trade your guys for prospects. It means several powerhouse teams and a whole bunch of crap... As for the Twins... I don't get how people say that Darvish will allow us to compete for a WC. We got a WC last year and are returning the same team with an improved pen and some SP depth that we haven't had in ages. Darvish is a go for it move that makes it realistic to compete with Cleveland and a possible deep playoff run. As for the window, yeah, it's open. We need a guy like Darvish. We have about 4 years with this core and not enough sure things in the rotation to keep said Window open.
  2. diehardtwinsfan
    I think there's something to saying a reliever must face two ore three batters. That's not unreasonable in my opinion, and I think there's a player safety case to be made there too.. But yeah, like Brian said, this won't fix viewership. Pace of play is an issue, but these are bandaid fixes to a much more fundamental issue.
  3. diehardtwinsfan
    Brock, Is there a way to force these ads to stop loading if they exceed a certain amount of time. It seems that there are some that can crash just about any browser as they hang. It's not consistent, but I have more problems at TD than just about any site I visit.
  4. diehardtwinsfan
    It's not a misleading stat at all. It gives you a really good approximation for how many batters do not put a ball in play. The guy with the lower K/9 puts more balls in play and leaves more up to chance and the hitter's skill.
  5. diehardtwinsfan
    agreed on all of this... At this point, I just want them to get one done. I'd prefer Darvish, but I'd be happy with any of them.
  6. diehardtwinsfan
    The take away here is that everyone said no to Thome 12 times... same happened with Pujols by the way, except that he was drafted much later. I think there's a moral here in that late draft talent can be found, and if there was something the analytics guys could do about it, it is figuring what the common themes that are unique to those late round gems and make it a point of picking up guys that fit the criteria.
  7. diehardtwinsfan
    I get not being excited about FAs... they come with risk. Everyone does. I'm more concerned though about stats like this. For one, just about every pitcher will see their metrics regress when framed in this way. I'm not surprised at all that his batting average against went up from pitches 51-100. The pitchers that see this number drop are the outliers, and I'd bet that over the course of a season that you won't find any pitchers who will see their numbers improve or remain the same... Now if ESPN can show some stat that demonstrates that Darvish is significantly worse in this capacity than his peers, I'd be interested in that. Second, Darvish has a career K/9 of just over 11 batters. He probably won't do that going forward, but he should still be very good in that area. That's roughly 1.2 batters per inning that never put the ball in play. That means he's lights out in his first 50 pitches and that those pitches likely cover more than 3 innings. It also means that he afford a higher BABIP in the second half of a game. I realize the Ks don't come consistently at a 1 per inning clip, but you have to accept that part of the reason he's considered an ace is because of the number of batters that never put the ball in play. In the all or nothing outcomes that MLB tends to be right now, you need this guy.
  8. diehardtwinsfan
    Not only is not guaranteed, but it takes time. The window is now. They need help now. Waiting for Gonsalves/Romero to reach their ceilings will essentially punt on 2018 and possibly 2019. Both guys will get a chance to pitch anyways. I'd rather they get that chance with some top shelf pitching in the rotation.
  9. diehardtwinsfan
    I don't think anyone is saying the team will be fine without Sano. I think it's fair to say that Sano missed quite a few games last year (more than 30) and we still won 85. I'd certainly like to see Sano play a full year, but this team isn't any worse than last years if Sano misses 30 games (yes, that assumes Escobar keeps being Escobar)... If Sano is not suspended, then right there we are likely a bit better (assuming of course that the injury isn't an issue). My bigger concerns is that we still haven't fixed the rotation. That drop off is pretty big after Santana/Berrios. Even with an improved pen, this team needs at least one more better than average starter if they want to be more than a pretender for the central. The flip side is that there's negative value that could be replaced with one solid acquisition, making an 85 win team a 90 win team almost overnight. Most of the other issues are fairly benign. I'm not worried about Garver as a backup. I just cannot see him being worse than Giminez. The pen will be better. Guys like Buxton, Sano (injury aside), Rosario, Kepler, Berrios, Mejia, and Polanco all stand a better than average chance of repeating or improving on their 2017 campaigns... and should improve a bit more than what you can expect guys like Dozier, Mauer, Castro, Santana, and Grossman to drop off. They will also have even better depth at the AAA level to cover for pitching injuries as guys like Gonsalves, Littell, Romero, and Slegers should all be able to contribute right away. I'm not expecting the world from them, but I think they can be better than some of the options we tossed out there last year.
  10. diehardtwinsfan
    I'd note that Lynn never had a K rate below 8 per 9 until this season (first full season back from TJS). I don't think the risk here is nearly as much as some think. Control is usually the last thing to return and Lynn saw upticks in his BB rate, HR rate, with a down tick in Ks (all of which are explained by control). I suspect that this will normalize a bit more in 2018. He doesn't scare me. I could also see a guy like Lynn betting on himself on a one year deal. If he posts something more along the lines of his career norms, he's looking at a much bigger deal next season. Only real concern is not recovery but NL to AL transition. I'd sacrifice a draft pick for Lynn... I prefer Darvish, but I'd be quite happy if we walked away with Lynn.
  11. diehardtwinsfan
    Twins have plenty of depth as it is. I'd rather roll with an AAA arm than this type of depth. They need quality, not quantity at this point.
  12. diehardtwinsfan
    Darvish, and it isn't close. They don't need to be locked into two long term contracts. I'd take Lynn over Arietta for the record.
  13. diehardtwinsfan
    that may be, but relating to millennials in the work environment is something a lot of organizations are dealing with... I'm sure the same was true for our generations, but it's honestly something I've never really thought about...
  14. diehardtwinsfan
    I woudlnt' be shocked if the FO is in this same boat. The key words here are "If he gets his heath his heath straightened out". My guess is that front office doesn't think that's likely to happen. Bard is the guy they essentially valued less than Kinley.
  15. diehardtwinsfan
    this would do more to speed up games than anything...
  16. diehardtwinsfan
    I think it's a lame attempt at leverage with the other teams in the mix... Personally, it would be nice if Levine gave him a call and offered to add another 10M or something on it to get him to sign now. He's clearly not happy with any offers. At this point, he should be at a place where he'd be willing to talk.
  17. diehardtwinsfan
    I just read this article and concluded "Yu is going to hold out till mid-season"... I do think it will be interesting. The market has to shape up, otherwise, I could see a team like the Twins swooping in on Lynne for a below market deal and leaving Darvish out in the cold. I'd rather have Yu, but at one point, I think someone has to blink.
  18. diehardtwinsfan
    I'm not sure a grievance would work. I would say though that Darvish is going to be the victim of demand in this case. That usually isn't the case with SPs, but with the major players all out, there's no one to drive up the price... Side note, if the Cubs were serious, I think they'd have signed him already. That team can print money. I know a extra couple mil per year is a lot of money, but it's pocket change to these guys. They would have signed him if they really wanted him. I think Brian is right. The Twins probably have the best offer on the field, and the only reason why Darvish hasn't signed is that it is significantly less than what he was hoping for.
  19. diehardtwinsfan
    I wouldn't assume Hughes will be in the pen. I wouldn't assume he will be on the team either. Two TOS in two years. I have to think he's done... or at least, I have to think that the assumption is that he's done until he proves otherwise.
  20. diehardtwinsfan
    I'm still recovering from the Viking's game yesterday, but this was a welcome sight when I checked TD today. My two cents: I think they are done with the pen. I said before that I wanted someone better than Rodney. We got that. I'm quite happy with this signing, and even more impressed by the price.I want Rodney to be the closer if they are going to use that role. Nothing against Reed, he's a better pitcher. I want him in those high leverage situations. Between Reed, Hildy, and Busenitz, we have a nice group of guys that we can throw in those situations. I think Duffey's problem last year was over use, and if that's the case, he's another one Molitor can rely on.I do think this means May will be starting (which I want), when he's ready.I do not agree that this means we are out on Darvish. I really think that Darvish hasn't moved because he's not getting the 150+M contract offer he was hoping for... from anyone. This will be interesting to see play out, b/c with ST only 4ish weeks away, I could see some of the lesser tiered SPs getting nervous and signing some deals. Darvish should want to set the market, but if he continues to wait, he's going to get the market set for him, and I don't think he's going to like the outcome. As for us, I do think we have a legit shot here, and a 135M payroll is not unreasonable.
  21. diehardtwinsfan
    I like Enlow, but that is insanely aggressive... especially considering he's likely to start in EST and play in the Appy league this summer. He might taste Cedar Rapids if things go well, but I don't see him making it to FTM or Chatty this year.
  22. diehardtwinsfan
    he's my all-time favorite Twin.
  23. diehardtwinsfan
    I think I'd want more concrete info than a tweet. No offense to Thrylos, but we haven't seen much in the way of accurate scoops from posters on this board of late. I think some caution would be wise. I do hope he's right though.
  24. diehardtwinsfan
    I think he sticks around. Even if he has a bad season, I wouldn't be surprised if he took a small deal to be a utility player. A lot though hinges on 2018. Another good year, and I could see him trying to stick around for 4-5 years for a shot at the 3000 hit club. That's probably his easiest way into the HOF.
  25. diehardtwinsfan
    This is more like a high school dating relationship... Hey, can you tell Yu that someone likes him... just don't say who...
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