diehardtwinsfan
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Everything posted by diehardtwinsfan
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Potential Rule 5 Selections for the Twins
diehardtwinsfan replied to ScottyB's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
this is a great place to grab a guy that has 1 decent offspead pitch that you can stash in the pen for a year and send back down. I'd think a hard throwing pitcher or two could be added and used to potentially augment the pen a bit... A rebuilding team should be all over this. -
Article: In Terry I Trust
diehardtwinsfan replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
This is like being back at BYTO except that there's more people to fuel the madness. Not to get back on topic, but Terry Ryan never seemed to be the type that liked being forced into a trade. Some have suggested that this was part of the reason he resigned so that he didn't have to deal with the Santana mess... and the Hunter mess... I'm with Nick on this one. Terry hasn't lost out often when he let the market come to him. Bill Smith on the other hand, was just the opposite. Now I just hope that he will actually make some good FA moves. -
I'm not against either signing, though I'd prefer a minor league contract with an ST invite... I suppose the league minimum + incentives like what Zumaya got might not be bad either.
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He might be fast, but when your manager refuses to call the steal, I'm not sure what advantage it brings. I'm for it if it's cheap, as he'd be an upgrade in the middle assuming is defense is as good as his speed.
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Just curious if I'm the only one who seems to have to refresh my browser quite a bit due to partial page loads...
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yeah, if we had Alex Smith, we'd be 8-4 right now at least... the question I have is when does Webb get a shot? At the very least, it would be nice to see him get an extended look.
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I was kind of hoping for Kepplinger...
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Only if the catcher is a Yankee...
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I'm not sure there's much serious about 70% of the threads posted in the offseason...
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This isn't catcher ERA. I should have used a different term, yes I understand that... my point is that the only way to quantify the catcher's impact on runs allowed is a long term study on the same catchers and the same pitchers...
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There's quite a bit wrong with what you said. Yes, my financial philosphy is very much akin to social Darwinism (though I think there's a moral component to letting people keep what they earn and spend it how they'd like). That said, I have no issue with the Biological process of Darwinism. The problem I have is that his does not reasonably explain the theory of evolution. The tenant behind Darwinism is that nature essentially breeds out the bad genes. I have no issue with this, as Darwinism does an excellent job of explaining how nature can form selection from existing genetic material. What Darwinism doesn't adequately expain is how new genetic material gets added to the pool. It also does a lousy job explaining how life can arise from non-life. Your example contains the same flaw. A gene mutation has to be passed on before it can be selected (where your example assumes the opposite), which is the first major problem with Darwinism/evolution. Reproductive cells are formed at birth, and they contain a separate copy of your genetic profile. If I aquire a mutation later in life, it does absolutly nothing for me as I cannot pass it on. I have to aquire that mutation in my reproductive cells, which is done before that gene can be selected. Likewise, mutations tend to be changes to existing genetic materials, not the addition of new genetic material which is another problem. Your example assumes that I already have the mutation and can pass it on. Like Darwinism, however, it fails to show how exactly I aquired it.
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What I dont' get is that Alex Smith has been a pretty decent QB the last couple of years. Even getting beat out, it isn't as if Smith was horrible... Kaepenick was just better. I think someone would give a 2nd or 3rd for him, and I wouldn't be against the Vikings doing it... I've seen enough of Ponder to know he isn't the answer. This team is winning in spite of him. Smith can complete the short throws and should be enough of a danger that defenses cannot just focus on AP.
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all this makes me wonder why it is exactly that they were enquiring about Mauer...
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He's like a lot of others worth a minor league deal. Unfortunately, I don't think there's a cure for a Dusty Baker ruined arm.
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Honestly, the only way to put any type of stock into catcher ERA is to look at how the same pitchers perform over a few years with the same catchers... If there was something to this, I'd imagine that over a large enough sample, you could determine that the catcher made the pitcher X amount of runs better... but this would essentially have to be done with the same group of pitchers pitching to the same catchers over several years to get enough data to be remotely conclusive...
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He'll get his shot... problem is that he was never a big K guy to begin with and seems to have gone downhill. The Braves thought he was too expensive to offer more arb... I'm guessing he gets 1yr 3M at best.
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Sickles has Sano at A- and Buxton, Arcia, and Meyer at B+...
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well said.
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Is this the offseason to extend Revere?
diehardtwinsfan replied to Willihammer's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
You aren't even comparing apples to apples here. Span had come off of two seasons posting an .800 OPS, strong on base skills, and above average defense at a key position. Revere has played for essentially 1 season and has done only the defensive side of things. There's legitimate question as to whether or not he will ever be able to top a .750 OPS and whether his on base skills will improve too. While Span didn't have a ton of minor league success either, Span did show improvement and then got the contract. If Revere can do that for two years, I guarantee you they will give him an extension to buy out his arb years, but if he does not, they should not. -
Is this the offseason to extend Revere?
diehardtwinsfan replied to Willihammer's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
That's fine, but until we see results like Bourn, we shouldn't pay Revere. I'm not saying he can't reach that level, there is just zero logic in paying him based on the chance that he might be that level of player. Let's at least see which Revere is the real one first: pre-August or August and on before we talk about guaranteeing millions of dollars to him. Pretty much this. The guys that get approached with extensions this early on in their careers typically have already had success to justify it along with the skillset that says "this guy's going to be pretty good." You give extensions to guys like Evan Longoria this early in your career, not to guys like Ben Revere. Even if Revere replicated his rookie season, I'm not sure I'd extend him... The guys who I'd be thinking about extending in the next year or two would be guys like Plouffe and Parmalee assuming they have very good seasons. -
Baseball America on Alex Meyer and Span Trade
diehardtwinsfan replied to John Bonnes's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
Judging solely by his stats, I'd say this isn't a mechanics fix like Guerra was... it's more of a "finding a consistent release point" kind of thing, which comes with repetition. I don't think Meyer is nearly the project as some seem to think, and judging by the numbers, I'd say he has gotten a bit closer each year. -
I don't know about Wilson "only playing for a contender." He's far more likely to play for the team willing to shell out the most money for his services. Given his name, he's probably going to get a decent contract, and I highly doubt he comes here because he's going to want to close.
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25 million for 3 starting pitchers.
diehardtwinsfan replied to Brandon's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I wouldn't be surprised if Marcum got a nice contract, but I have a tough time believing guys like Bedard and Liriano who have had their good moments but have plenty of baggage are going to get big contracts. I could see something that is incentive laden, but given their question marks, I highly doubt they are going to get huge contracts. The market is weird in part b/c teams went out and got the guy they were targeting, and at this stage of the game, with the big tier pitchers not falling, you are going to overpay a bit to get it. There might be something to the added revenue thing, but that will affect the contracts for good talent, not some guy that has just as much chance of being a disaster as he does making good on his contract. -
typically the top FA's set the market during winter meetings. If you are targeting a guy before then, you are going to end up likely overpaying. So to answer your quest, yes Zach is definitely setting the market. When he goes, the rest of the dominos will start to fall.
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A couple of things. While Revere has a greater range, that is lessed by a much weaker arm. Revere has been lucky enough to see guys tag up and score from 2nd on a deep fly ball, and that rarely happens. I'd imagine defense metrics attempt to bring that into context, and while I don't know if they "figured it out" so to speak, that is a reason why Revere's defensive metrics are going to be a bit muted. The OF defense is going to be bad going into 2013, though there's good reason to think it will be above average by the end. Morneau likely gets flipped for something allowing Parmalee to move to 1st. That will give a callup for one of Hicks, Benson, or Arcia, all of whom should be better defensively. If more than one of them is doing well in Rochester next year, I wouldn't be surprised at all if Willingham was flipped for something as well.
