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diehardtwinsfan

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Everything posted by diehardtwinsfan

  1. diehardtwinsfan
    Arent' these the same defensive metrics that said Gomez was worth 80 runs in the outfield? I'm somewhat skeptical of them for that reason. What I do know is this, Revere is the only person in my memory that saw runners tag up from 2nd and score, and you could pretty much guarantee that anything hit to him would result in a runner taking an extra base. I realize he can track down balls better than just about any, which is why I tend to think he's a great 4th OF, but his bat was nothing special and his arm cost runs too. He seems like a nice kid, so I hope he does well in Philly, but I think Ryan pulled off a major coup getting Worley and May for him. That said, anyone placing hope in Hicks THIS YEAR, will likely be dissapointed. While the glove is ready now, people need to temper expectations on his bat. Up until last year, he's been underwhelming in the minors. And even last year was hardly dominant. He's also skipping a level. I suspect his OBP will keep him in the 1 slot, but I would not be surprised in the least if he struggled to crack a .750 OPS. I do have high hopes for him long term, but he's going to take some lumps this year... Hopefully Gardy is patient with him.
  2. diehardtwinsfan
    I think Deduno or Swarzak. If Deduno continues his success in Rochester, he'll be up quickly and on the 40 man. If he's still hurt and the need arises sooner, it will be Swarzak.
  3. diehardtwinsfan
    Wait I missed something, did Butera make the 25 man roster? This thread has hit 3 pages of angst about a catcher who will be making 750k in AAA. I'll be really surprised if he's offered arbitration this offseason as his salary will likely double, and quite frankly I don't get the fascination with Herman, nor is he ready. I'm fine with Drew in AAA, and I doubt Burnet will be an org regret. He put up some sick numbers in the minors a few years back and never did anything since (including in AAA). The guy I think this org will regret is when Slama leaves as a minor league FA and ends up with a team like Tampa Bay.
  4. diehardtwinsfan
    I don't expect the Pohlads to lose money on this franchise. I haven't seen the ML books, but that said, I'd be really hard pressed to believe that spending 100M would put them in the red. I'm glad I don't live in Minneapolis and have to pay taxes for that stadium. I'd be furious. While I didn't see any sure upgrades in the middle infield, there were good pitching options available. That is frustrating.
  5. diehardtwinsfan
    I'm in the 70-80 camp personally. I think the offense is going to be better than average. The question on defense is whether the upgrade from Dozier to Florimon will be greater than the downgrade from Casilla to Dozier. OF defense will be a little weaker, but I'm not convinced that Revere's range made up for his lack of an arm. Regardless of all of this, it comes down to pitching. Decent starting pitching and I think this team would be contending. Unfortunately, I don't see much in terms of decent starting pitching. I like Worley going forward as he should settle into a nice #3 (not sure if he will do that this year given the league switch) and I think Deduno will eventually be a bright spot. Hendricks may eventually be a decent 3 too. I'm not sure either will be that this year and the rest will at best be 5s, if not replacement or below.
  6. diehardtwinsfan
    I do hope this is hte lineup going forward (though with Dozier hitting in place of Escobar). I could see some swapping around guys if Morneau and Parmalee get off to hot starts, but beyond that, I like it.
  7. diehardtwinsfan
    I didnt' see the context of Fanatic Jack's original post, but just reading the twitter tag posted here seems to indicate that Ryan was ordered to cut payroll by 33M over 2 years... Perhaps I misunderstood due to the context, but given that Ryan has publically said he didn't have orders to reduce payroll, I'd be rather upset if in fact he did. I don't have too much of a problem with rebuilding, though I think it is in everyone's best interest to be HONEST about that fact, and if Corriea is simply a signing to hold a place until that happens, I don't get too upset by it (I'd be more upset if the FO actually thought he'd be an upgrade). Looking at the market, I'd definitely say that I don't see a whole lot of sure upgrades in the middle infield. I'm not so certain about pitching. There were plenty of much better options that could have filled that void, whether that meant signing Sanchez to a 5 year deal or going for a bunch of higher upside 1 year wonders. I'd argue with the next wave, a 5 year deal on a guy like Sanchez doesn't hurt this franchize at all, but even if Ryan was allergic to that, there were plenty of 1 year deals that made a ton of sense.
  8. diehardtwinsfan
    Are these org rankings or farm rankings? That does make a big difference.
  9. diehardtwinsfan
    I missed the part where Windle was low upside. He's a lefty that can hit mid 90s. He gets his Ks and the walks are reduced. He's not in the Manea/Anderson/Appel/Gray category, but he isn't that far off from them either. I'm not sure I'd call him a back of the rotation guy. His career will likely be a career#3 with some seasons where he puts up #2 type numbers. That's a great pick at numbrer 2 if he's there.
  10. diehardtwinsfan
    If Nolin is who I think he is, he is a pretty good prospect. He's also a hard throwing lefty that Sickles himself said could be an A- by the end of the year. If they got him for Morneau, I'd be ecstatic. I could see trying to get Romero, though I don't know if Toronto will trade him. I could see swapping reclamation projects in a BlackBurn for Romero deal, but I think the Twins would have to toss in a fringe prospect to get that to work, and I'm not sure Toronto is going to want to get a low upside reclamation project for a high upside one, unless the risk is extremely high for Romero.
  11. diehardtwinsfan
    There are a few things to think about. 1) There is no obvious DH for the 2014-2016 team with this next wave of propspects. The MIF situation isn't that nice either (though I could see them rushing Rosario). Depending on how they draft his year, the pitching should be fine. As already said, a healthy Justin still has a few more "cornerstone" years and could fit into this wave quite nicely during that time. 2) Nothing prevents a trade and then a resign as a free agent next year. I know it's rare, but it can happen. Trading Justin isn't necessarily a guarantee that they lose him. The question will have more to do with what they pay him, and unless he really wants to be back, there will not be a hometown discount. The question at hand has more to do with what Justin wants than anything else. If the Jays offered him a 2 year deal, he'd have to consider taking it for no other reason than that they'd be a contending team during that timeframe. If the Twins got a decent prospect for him (particularly a middle infielder/pitcher that can fit into the 2015 team), I'd say they have no choice but to do it if that offer came.
  12. diehardtwinsfan
    I'm surprised he said 88. Usually his early season predictions top 100.
  13. diehardtwinsfan
    I'm not sure if he will go in the first round, but I suspect he gets taken in the suplemental round... really hoping he's there at 2.4.
  14. diehardtwinsfan
    I thought he fell to 10 or 11 in their mock... There were some questions on him more recently while Anderson, Gray, and Appel continue to impress. Give all of those guys have #1 upsides and probably a floor (baring injury) of a 3 or so, I find it tough to believe that the Twins won't take one of them... Then again, they took Buxton last year, so what do I know.
  15. diehardtwinsfan
    got to stop using older propsect lists.
  16. diehardtwinsfan
    1) Deduno will continue his dominance in AAA and will become a permanent member of the rotation. He will be the starting pitching bright spot this season. 2) Morneau will be back to his old self and get traded to the Blue Jays for Noah Syndergaard and a throw in middle infielder. He will finish his career with the Twins after winning the World Series (hey, one can dream). 3) The middle infield will not be good. Dozier will show enough to keep his job, but no one is going to be excited about him. 4) Plouffe and Parmalee will show their bats are for real. 5) Pitching will be bad as Pelfrey and Correia will struggle mightily and Diamond will regress. Worley will put up #3 stats. Other thoughts: Arcia will hit well and Benson will re-establish his value as well. Hicks will be good enough to keep the job but not inspiring. The Twins are going to draft two good college pitchers in the first two rounds and trade Willingham for a decent AA SS prospect.
  17. diehardtwinsfan
    I think you could have summed up this article in two words: "Not much". I have hope for Dozier, but the rest of the guys listed there don't look like much more than backups.
  18. diehardtwinsfan
    I'm assuming Appel will be off the board at number 4. Personally, I think their pick will be a tough choice between Anderson and Gray. Honestly, I'd be happy with either one, though I think Anderson might be a guy who will sign for under slot which allows them to go after someone else in later rounds. I'm kind of hoping Windle is still there at number 2. That would be 2 pretty decent near ready pitchers that would significantly improve the pitching outlook of the 2015/16 teams.
  19. diehardtwinsfan
    I have a tough time believing the Twins would do that. I'm not seeing how this catcher would be that much better than the pitching options they desparately need.
  20. diehardtwinsfan
    I think he can OPS between .800 and .850 and hit 20-30 home runs.
  21. diehardtwinsfan
    I find it amusing that people are running out there to call Boras a dick when they really dont' know the guy. He's an agent whose best talent is maximizing the return for players, but when you are in high stakes negotiation, there's always risk. Boras and Lohse both knew the risk and chose to take it anyways, and I doubt Boras wouldn't have clients if he didn't clearly explain to them their risk. As some have said, Boras is right far more often than wrong, but in this case, it's going to hurt his client. It isn't the first time. The Twins got Crede and Kenny Rogers for similar reasons. Appel is another example, as losing a year of FA is going to cost him dearly I'd imagine.
  22. diehardtwinsfan
    Actually, you missed a key point in both models, namely the ability to expand the zone. Pitchers who can hit their spots can also confidently throw pitches just out side the zone, which will force a lot of hitters to swing and make weak contact and occasionally get umps to expand the zone with them as well. My problem with the Twins' philosophy on pitching isn't the limiting walks concept (because that does correlate to runs saved), but the refusal to allow for strategic balls and the undervaluing of a strike out. Carl Pavano is one that comes to mind on this. He could hit his spots well, but I never saw him expand the zone. Good hitters approached him by swinging at everything he offered... at that point, he should have been throwing stuff off the plate...
  23. diehardtwinsfan
    Droping the team ERA from a 5.4 to a 4.8 would save about 1/2 run per game. That would add to the win column...
  24. diehardtwinsfan
    Could you link it? This is very much unlike TR.
  25. diehardtwinsfan
    I don't know why, but I keep thinking Jeff Gray and want to scream go away.... I didn't realize he was hitting 100 on his fastball at times. Not a bad option if Manea and Appel are taken.
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