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diehardtwinsfan

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Everything posted by diehardtwinsfan

  1. diehardtwinsfan
    yeah, I have a couple dogs... I'd much prefer my carpet clean... Impressive analogy.
  2. diehardtwinsfan
    I think there's merit in what you're saying; but to cherry pick a bit, the Yankees, just two years ago, blew up their roster. They produced a playoff team the following year by beating us in the WC. They currently have the 3rd best run differential in all of baseball playing in what is its toughest division, sitting in second. No one will challenge them for the WC, and they have a real chance at making up those 4.5 games. They made a smart decision, stocking their farm with talent. Some have produced at the major league level, and some can be used to acquire talent for the run over the next two years (which is why Gibson is in play with them). I think there's merit in making an intelligent decision, and I think at this point, the right answer is sell. I wouldn't punt on 2019, because the talent is there. I'm definitely selling this year.
  3. diehardtwinsfan
    I think there are two narratives being spun, and both are wrong, or partially right depending on how you view this. It's not an issue of wanting to stay or wanting to leave or wanting to stay. Dozier made it clear that he wanted to test free agency. I do think it means that he wanted to gage his market and take a fully informed offer (and yes, I think dollar value is probably a big factor, perhaps even the primary factor). I think he wants to know his true value and take an informed decision. He's got one shot at this. At this point, I doubt he's too willing to negotiate. He bet on himself when he signed that extension, and I don't think he's going to fold now.
  4. diehardtwinsfan
    yeah, the only way that works is if said young pitcher has been pitching poorly and the team is getting a good SP now.
  5. diehardtwinsfan
    his K rate has trended down, albeit slowly.
  6. diehardtwinsfan
    I never said I didn't want a high level prospect. Escobar should command one, and Dozier, if he continues to hit, should as well. I'm just noting that we have some gaps in the system right now in the high minors at C and 3B. I haven't written off next year, and I think it would be prudent to target those types of needs. Again, I'd still take starting pitching if that was all I could get. It's always needed, but given our depth at MI right now, that wouldn't be a priority.
  7. diehardtwinsfan
    I think if I'm the Twins, I want an MLB ready 3B/1B type as Sano insurance and a C in AA/AAA. I won't argue with SP either, as you can never have enough (as long as it's upside, and not back of rotation type). I'm not against acquiring middle infielders, but we have plenty of them and have needs in other places. Both the Phillies and Brewers seem to have some decent pitching prospects, but not much in the way of guys that could potentially help in 2019/2020.
  8. diehardtwinsfan
    Gonsalves walk rate this season is certainly concerning, but I really think people are under valuing him. His career minor league ERA is under 3. His K rate is over 9, and his career hit/9 is under 7. Even with the high walk rate this year, his career walk rate is just a bit over 3. He's got a lot of potential, and certainly more than a mid rotation guy even if that is his most likely outcome. My guess on the walks is that they have him throwing that curve more in order to refine his command on the pitch. Maybe I'm wrong, but that, to me at least, would seem logical since the pitch is his weakest and is likely preventing him from being a top half of the rotation guy. It will be interesting to see if that walk rate is trending in a particular direction over the course of this season.
  9. diehardtwinsfan
    I think Mauer has value in the right role. He takes great at bats, but he's lacking in power and just isn't the Joe of old. His lack of positional flexibility hurts him too. If he could play 3rd and maybe some RF, he'd be much more valuable. He's certainly capable of having one or two more 2017 type seasons at this point, but hardly a sure bet. As a complementary player who isn't playing every day, I think he'd be fine. Whether or not the Twins are the best for that remains to be seen. I don't think they'd play him in the right role if they signed him, and for whatever reason, they don't seem too interested in having him play 3rd despite the need (which I don't think would take much adjustment) or a corner spot.
  10. diehardtwinsfan
    I love reading your posts... I learned something today. Thanks... I always thought the breaking pitches led to more TJS... bit surprised that it appears to be the other way around.
  11. diehardtwinsfan
    When his bat is on, you're right, Dozier is the better player. He's had way too many good half seasons with putrid results during the other half. Escobar has been more consistent and can play decent defense everywhere. If Dozier had played 2018 like he did 2017, we'd have a lot more wins and we'd be clamoring to QO him. Those Ruthian half seasons of baseball will come to an end at some point. I'm much more comfortable with the consistent guy on a 3 year deal than the one who goes from hot to cold and has no in between.
  12. diehardtwinsfan
    To be clear, I don't think adding a 5 WAR player simply adds 5 wins. That's a complex approximation that provides some context around results, but hardly an absolute value. Adding good players top through the bottom of the team will certainly make the results greater than the sum of the parts. But I'd add that you would still need to makes some sort of move at 1B/DH, which in this market is oddly enough, cheap to do. That's also a big reason why I'm advocating keeping Escobar. Pitching, I agree is still weak, though I'm not sure how you figure we have 1 SP. I'd say there are two pretty good ones right now in Berrios and Gibson. There's a slightly above average one in Odorizzi, and wild cards in Pineda (who could be very good), Romero (who is probably a lock for 2019), May, and some of the AAA guys. I'd also argue that the pen can largely get figured out in this lost year. There are plenty of guys on the 40 man who need shots and Molly needs to play them... So no, I wouldn't punt on 2019. And regardless, you'll still need a catcher. If things don't pan out, you can trade Realmutto or take the comp pick when he leaves absorbing the risk for his potential injury. The flip side to all of this is that if you do nothing, and Sano and Buxton make strides, we wasted 2019 as well.
  13. diehardtwinsfan
    I'm not quite sure I agree here. Dozier is without question elite when he hits. His peaks are awesome but the valleys are frustrating. Escobar has been very good and plays multiple positions. I'd keep Escobar if I had to choose.
  14. diehardtwinsfan
    The question I'd like to pose to you is what you think Buxton and Sano will do in 2019. I get the long term approach, I do. I was advocating it for most of the last few years. But this window is open right now. Then central is ripe for the taking, and young players like Buxton and Sano can take huge steps forward (just look at the Eddies or Berrios), and both have demonstrated well above average MLB production at varying points in their career, so assuming they will not is as dangerous as assuming that they will. So what do you do? Doing nothing about catching is certainly going to hamstring the 2019 roster. It will setup guys like Buxton and Sano to fail, putting more weight on their shoulders. I see no way around doing something, and there's no help in the minors for 2019/2020 either. The best option right now is Rortvedt, and to be fair, I think breaking north with the team in 2021 is probably optimistic. The FA market is pretty weak too. So do you punt on 2019? That's what you're advocating. Given the young core on this team, I'm not sure that's wise. We may find ourselves upset in 2019 looking at wasted seasons from our core because of a few black holes in the lineup. I saw way too much of that in the mid-2000s for my taste.
  15. diehardtwinsfan
    I'm kind of curious how long both need to be in the minors to extend that by a year. I certainly wouldn't fault the org for keeping them down for that reason given how poorly they've performed at the major league level.
  16. diehardtwinsfan
    That's fair. Though to be fair to Gonsalves, he has shown up in multiple top 100 lists. He's not a bad prospect. Getting two top 100 guys for Realmutto would certainly get the Marlin's attention. I think we both agree that we'd rather have Graterol/Romero at this point, as the upside for both is higher. My point was that I didn't understand why those guys would be on the table and Gonsalves was not. If the Marlins wanted him, I'd include him.
  17. diehardtwinsfan
    I don't think anyone is over-valuing Gonsalves. I was perplexed why Nick took him off the table. If they wanted Gonsalves, I would be more than happy to include him, especially over Graterol or Romero.
  18. diehardtwinsfan
    I really liked this piece, and I've made a case that we should get Realmutto for the same reasons you propose… but this line is perplexing. Stephen Gonsalves is exactly the type of piece we should be adding to Kirilloff. We have Littell, Slegers, and Romero all sitting in AAA, all of which are pretty much ready as well, and there's not room for all of them. Romero should be untouchable, and I'd much rather part with Gonsavles than Graterol. If you can build a package around Kirrilloff (who is definitely redundant) and Gonsalves (who is also redundant), you do it. Yeah, were' probably adding some lotto tickets, but this is a great way to trade from surplus to get a need.
  19. diehardtwinsfan
    He needs to keep it up. He had a HR and a 2B the other day, so maybe he's heating up. If he goes nuts for a week and gets that OPS up a bit, some GM may come buying.... But if he doesn't get hot, I just don't see a GM giving up much for him.
  20. diehardtwinsfan
    I think most of the Twins tradeable assets will have some value. Escobar and Gibson would be an upgrade (and likely significant) on a number of playoff teams. They should fetch top price if on the market. Other than maybe DeGrom, there really aren't any impact pitchers available. I would expect a top 150 prospect for these guys and probably something else. Lynn would be a perfectly acceptable 5th starter for any team really struggling at the back of the rotation. The question there is how many other pitchers are out there that fit that bill, because supply is what will ultimately depress his price. Dozier will depend on what other 2Bs are on the market and if someone wants to make a bet that he could get hot (or hopefully he gets hot and solves that problem for us). Teams always need bullpen help, especially when every team has at least 7 spots and someone who could be upgraded. Again, it's supply/demand. I'm sure there will be other relievers on the market. The question is how many are available and how many teams are buying. I don't see a scenario where Rodney, Duke, or Pressley couldn't get something, though most likely in the high risk/high reward type category. So yeah, I think the Twins could unload all of these guys. Other than Gibby and Escobar though, I don't expect much in the way of high quality prospects.
  21. diehardtwinsfan
    I think no market would be odd. There are still teams in the hunt trying to solidify a roster for a playoff/WS run... What you may see is more sellers and less buyers. That will depress prices on any non-premium assets.
  22. diehardtwinsfan
    He was too winded after rounding 1st base /ducks
  23. diehardtwinsfan
    Probably worth noting that his OPS is north of .900 right now in A ball. Yes, he's still walking too little and striking out too much. No idea how his conditioning is, but at the moment, the bat is getting some results and he appears (scouting box scores at least) to be righting the ship.
  24. diehardtwinsfan
    I was curious if Santana's velocity is ticking upward.
  25. diehardtwinsfan
    I think this overvalues Dozier and probably undervalues Lynn a bit. I figured those two would get similar returns, and I don't see Dozier bring in several mid-level prospects. Someone might send a decent prospect our way on a flier that he gets hot, but they aren't sending a bunch... now if he suddenly starts hitting, that would be different. I think Levi mentioned trading Pressley as he has only a year of control left. He might net a decent prospect.
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