diehardtwinsfan

Truth be told, I don't too upset about Hendricks. I do think that they should have jettisoned a guy like Albers prior to Hendricks, but at this point, the odds of Hendricks being anything more than an emergency callup/short term sub at the ML level is rare. I get that he's young, and up to 2012 seemed to be a pretty good minor league pitcher, but at this point I'm not sure he's going to have a major league career.

20M in committements have to be factored into this too. This really is selling low for Beane, which is something he doesn't do much. I have a hard time thinking his value will be worse next year than it is right now (which honestly is likely a major league reliever or a C+ level prospect). If he has another injury plagued season, the value wont' change. If he doesn't, it likely will. So here's what I would ask. Would you trade a prospect like Adam Walker, who strikes me as a boom or bust guy in the majors and is likely redundant in this system for a guy like Anderson with the hopes of locking him up long term if he rebounds? Something tells me Beane is floating this, but he's not going to take a Jarrod Burton or Casey Fein.

Um... No? I don't think this could have been put in place in 2011. For one, there was no reason to think they'd be that bad after heading to the playoffs in 2010. You can make that case in 2012, but I also think you'd have reason to think there could be some bounce backs... 2013 is the point where it was clear things needed to change, and Ryan felt it necessary to rebuild... like it or not. Had they gone out and gotten say Jackson and Sanchez (we'll pretend they could have), they still wouldn't have made the playoffs, and I doubt they would have made huge changes to the offense.

yeah, I'm with the others here. Based on his season last year, he has no value if he doesn't catch. Gardy played him way too much at non-catching positions last year, and I'd argue (though it's definitely debatable) that this hurt Parmelee more than anything else. I like Doumit, but there's no chance he's a next wave guy. And while the odds of Parmelee being a significant contributor for that are very low at this point, he should be playing every day just to see if he can figure out the major leagues. He has potential to be an absolute beast in the lineup if he can.

I have to ask, but what exactly do people see in Herrman? I think I'd rather go with Pinto and Doumit (who at least has the potential to hit well there) with Mauer in an emergency role and keep Herrman off the roster alltogether. You still need to get at bats for some other guys to see where they will be, and all Herrman is going to do is clog up a roster spot.

Yeah, if Anderson can be had cheap, by all means get him. The problem is that now the rotation is reasonably locked up with Nolasco, Hughes, KC, Gibson, whoever. Someone gets bumped in that situation and there are guys who do deserve a shot at the 5th spot. I'd trade a reliever to get Anderson, but certainly not Perkins. I liked the idea of Tanaka, but at this point, I don't see that being a wise investment. Not sure they are going to be doing much on offense either. I think that other than minor moves and perhaps an FA trade, they are done.

I think the reality here though is that not much can be done. Locked in: Mauer, Dozier, Hammer, Arcia, and Pinto. Dozier needs to show that the second half was the real Dozier. Arcia is likely going to improve for no other reason than that he's young and he consistently has done that. You have open spots at SS, 3B, CF, and DH. At 3B, Plouffe is getting another chance... Period. He's shown flashes that he can be good, and the Twins would be silly not to give him one more year. At this point, he's a place holder to Sano, but I don't see the Twins signing a 1 year stop gap solution when anyone signing a 1 year deal is going to be more expensive and probably just as risky as Plouffe. Parmelee is in the same boat on the other side, though he will likely be doing the DH/OF/1B thing to get his at bats. His defense will keep him around a bit longer, but again, the Twins need to figure out if one of these guys can stick. Not all young guys hit like Trout right away. If one does manage to hit well in 2014, that's the DH for the next wave. CF also has options in the near term in Hicks and Buxton. I expect Presley to get the nod opening day and have most of the year to be in the same situation as Plouffe, and Parmelee, but if not, he's going to have Hicks and Buxton pressing him for PT by 2015. The only real gap that they need to do something about is SS. Problem that I see is that there aren't any good options there other than potentially moving Dozier back if Rosario comes back strong from his suspension.

I'll see him as a reliever when he can no longer be a starter. Thus far, he's given little indication that he cannot do it. Thrylos hit the nail on the head with this one. The development of his secondary pitches will determine where he ends up. Until then, the kid starts.

this. He's not going to cost much. Perhaps I just remember him single handedly destroying us in our 2010 home opener, but I'd think he's worth the risk if he's cheap...

This right here is why the A's won't get much for him... at least when combined with his contract. I'd be willing to give up something of little value for him. From a risk standpoint, I'd argue that 2010-2012 were all due to Tommy John injury. That to me is over with. We have lots of decent options in the pen and just about any one of them (minus Perkins) would be well worth giving up for Anderson. As it is, they are going to have to make room for Tonkin, so I say do it if the A's want help in their pen.

This is probably the last year for Plouffe and Parmelee for that matter to prove something. Both have teased with the bat and both need to break out. Plouffe won't have a position next year at this time (baring injury) so he's going to have to hit well enough for the Twins to find him one. DH is still open from a "next wave" standpoint and they may still need a corner OF if Hicks or Arcia flop, so I'd say that this is make or break. If he hits, the worst case is that he's a DH (and given his defense that might not be a bad option). The same is true with Parmelee. If they both hit, I'd say one of them or Hicks can be traded for something nice. If neither hit, the team will likely be doing some sort of platoon at DH or shopping for one.

I'd probably go after Arancebia if he was in fact non-tendered as someone said. Perhaps I just remember him being a 1 man wrecking crew against the Twins a few years back on opening night, but he is still young an if I remember correctly was a decent though of prospect.... It strikes me a as a "worst case decent backup" option and a best case "suddenly you have a guy you can trade".

Herrmann strikes me as a guy worth dumping. Perhaps they can get another Sulbaran for him.

I'm not sure you compare Corriea to a guy like Lohse and say that Corriea was better. Not sure how that works. I get the contract thing, but you have to let the contracts play out before you can make that judgement. That said, I didn't like the KC signing. Like others, I wanted Sanchez, and we certainly could have afforded it. The problem as I see it was that Ryan was clearly looking at 2013 as a rebuilding year. From that perspective, it was the right move.

I think the Twins are done adding pitching in 2014 and baring injury 2015. Gibson is going to get a spot in 2014 and probably 2015. In 2015, Meyer will most definitely have a spot, and I half expect him to end up with one in 2014 as well. The Twins will leave one spot open in 2014 for tryouts, and my gut says Worley, Darnell, and Deduno will be the first tried out. In 2015, with Gibson, Meyer, Nolaso, and Hughes, that last spot will be open for May, Darnell, and a few others. The Twins will need help at SS long term. Goodrum might be an answer there (and if Rosario hits after the suspension, I still see Dozier headed back there), but Goodrum is still a bit away. I could see a targeted FA acquisition here. 3B is filled long term with Sano who will probably get a taste in 2014. 2B is filled in the short term with Dozier. 1B is Mauer. In the OF they will have Willingham, Pressley, and Arcia this year for 2014. In 2015, Willingham will be gone and I suspect Buxton and Hicks will be manning the OF that year, and at C I think Pinto is going to be the guy for a while. To me, that really means the Twins biggest need will be DH. In 2014, I see Parmelee doing a lot of that as well as spelling the OFers. Plouffe is auditioning for that long term as well. Both need to see their bats come around or both will find themselves off the roster in a years time. The one that hits stays.

This is a tough one because I think the term "break out" means different things to different people. I'm not going to put Stewart on the list as he's already a top 50 prospect, had a great start, and was drafted 4 overall. Not really a break out candidate. Most expect him to have an excellent season, so break out for him would be Buxtonesque. I'm not going to put those types of expectations on anyone. My candidates: The other nice thing is that with this deep of a system, there are A LOT of candidates. Thorpe - I think this kid will be special. He's already broken out in some ways, as he's in a lot of Twins to 10 lists already. I think he's going to be in a lot of top 100 lists overall next season... I could even see him sniffing top 50. Gonsalves - He was considered 1st round talent and fell more due to character/signability than to his stuff (though it was questioned). The fact that he's a hard throwing lefty will keep him in the system for a while, and so far he looked to be far superior to his rookie league competition. He's another guy that may be in some top 100 lists next year. Polanco - If he can stick at SS, this is another break out guy that could hit top 100 lists. He had a pretty good year in CR and if he's average defensively, he will be on a ton of prospect lists. Kepler - No question on the tools. Just needs to put it all together. Reminds me of a Joe Benson type guy (though hopefully without the mental issues to go with it). May - Peripherals showed improvement last season. ERA didn't. No question on the talent, but thus far he's been a project. I could see him rewarding fans. It wouldn't take much more of an improvement in the peripherals to really start showing up in ERA, and in all honesty, just putting him with a better defense might do the trick. Logan Darnell - not going to hit top 100 lists, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if he's the first guy called up in MN next year. I think he's a 3 ceiling type guy, but should be far better than a typical 4/5 starter. And for the name no one is mentioning: Aaron Hicks - technically, he broke out last year and then was terrible this year. I think he puts 2013 behind him in AAA, though I don't expect to see him in MN at all in 2014 (baring injury).

I can't like this enough. Nolasco and Hughes are both guys that have not pitched as well as their peripherals have indicated, and while I tend to think this might be where advanced stats break down, history indicates that these types of guys are the ones that can suddenly put it together. I don't expect either to be the typical definition of an ace, but both could turn into a guy who exceeds the value of his contract by a decent margin. I'd have preferred Tanaka, but they went out and spent money on REAL upgrades to supplement the next wave when they arrive. I think these signings are going to make 2014/15 in particular much much much more exciting.

Can't we at least wait until winter meetings have concluded before people start complaining? That's when the dominos start to fall, and the Tanaka situation is also going to complicate things from a Twins standpoint, as they need pitching, and a lot of pitchers are going to wait until that is figured out.

I doubt Pinto is gettting traded at all... not with Mauer moving to 1B. I could see Arcia being on the block, but like others had said, it had better be for something really freaking good. Boston may want him, but I highly doubt they are going to offer Rayunado or someone of that calliber for him.

If their agents are worth anything, you can guarantee that they will call Minnesota and ask if they are willing to up whatever offer is on the table before a pitcher signs.

If pitch framing is this important, then MLB needs a way to automate strike and ball calls.

I'd certainly be willing to consider trading some of the guys in the bottom of the top 10 (assuming of course Price signs an extension), but trading anything for 1 year of Price is foolish. The reality though is that the team that will make this trade is a team that is looking for something to put them over the top. I could see KC doing something like that since they've already shown a propensity to do it... they are much closer than the Twins though. The Twins should not be making this type of trade unless it turns out that there's no market for him and they can trade Harrison/Walker type guys to get him. I highly doubt that happens.

50-60M posting fee is what I think the team should bid. If it's over that, unless they are convinced he's a sure thing, I'd pass.

Well, to answer your sabermetric quesiton, runs scored is largely a metric of the guys behind you in the linup, just like RBI's is largely a metric of what the guys in front of you are doing. It has little to do with "knowing how to score" or "consistently driving in runs". They are horrible ways to judge a prospect. Getting on base is the best way because that's something largely in the batter's control, and the best way to outscore your opponent is to not make outs. The issue I think you are missing is that the stats don't simply translate up the chain. Things will change for him in Fort Meyers, just as they will change when he hits New Brittian, Rochester, and (hopefully) Minnesota. The question at hand has a lot to do with why he's so divergent with walks and Ks. If he's free swinging at pitches out of the zone, he's going to find that he will have to make adjustments as pitchers will pitch him out of the zone far more than they should. If his problem is that he simply cannot hit the breaking pitches, he's going to be in for a rude awakening in AA.

I think trading Perkins is likely going to be the best move the Twins can make. I like Perk, but I'd strongly consider flipping him to Boston for Raynuado or Webster (and if we are lucky, you get Barnes as a Trevor May type project). Boston had their fair share of closer struggles last season.