I hope you're right about your first paragraph Nick, (though I'm fairly certain Clinton won't run away with anything, but that's a separate discussion). I thought Trump would be interesting b/c of the trainwreck that would most likely ensue, but somehow he's managed to dodge it quite well. Poll after poll is saying he could beat Hillary, and I just don't see any Republican capable of mounting some sort surge that could unseat him. Carson is likely the closest, and now that he's been somewhat exposed as a liar that novelty is wearing off. The closest thing that Republicans have to a true breath of fresh air is Rand Paul (and I'm not even a huge fan here, I really liked his dad), but the party brass has gone out of their way to marginalize the Libertarian movement within the Republican party for a good 10 years now. I don't see that changing. As for your second paragraph, Trump running independent is likely the only way Clinton gets in, much like Ross Perot did to get an ensure her husband's victories in 1992 and 1996, but if he's carrying the party nomination, I really don't see her stopping him. Quite frankly, given Obama's poor job and Hillary's history, I don't see the Dems having much of a chance at all in 2016 baring something like a 3rd party run that splits the votes.