diehardtwinsfan
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Everything posted by diehardtwinsfan
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Buxton Stalls Out, Again
diehardtwinsfan replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I cannot emphasize the bolded statement enough. Add to it that he has a grand total of 237 plate appearances in AA. You're talking about a guy that doesn't even have a full season of PAs in the high minors. We need to get beyond the 'he tore it up in AAA.' Yeah, he's done well there in short samples, but that is a far cry from being ready to hit major league pitching. The real question is what does the team do with him next season. Do they bring in a 1 year stop gap and start him in AAA? They should have done that this season. -
I think the big problem is pitching. I could see 2017 being at best a .500 team, but without some serious strides in that department, I don't see them ready for the show... though at this point, keeping guys like Milone and Santiago in the rotation are probably doing more harm than good. Time to turn it over to the kids, and if they don't think that Gibson can take that next step, I see him getting traded when guys like Gonsalves, Jorge, Stewart, and Romero are all in AAA.
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I think Palka will be a Sept add, since he's pretty much guaranteed to get added this offseason. I don't see Antony doing anything drastic since I don't get the idea that he wants to hamstring his successor (and I'm sure he wants to build his resume as to why he'd be a good one here too). As for 40 man Sept call ups: Walker Mejia Dean Chargois maybe Melotakis
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yeah, makes it sound like he cares about his craft a lot, and isn't just some pull happy guy. No doubt, he can pull an inside pitch and deposit it 400 feet away down the line, but I really like his thoughts on his approach to a plate appearance.
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They are short on the 'sure thing high ceiling type' aka grade A/A- type guys, but they have plenty of high ceiling players and certainly some guys who could hit that A/A- grade at some point. That was probably the one thing that impressed me as I looked through that list. A lot of guys in it have the chance to be well above average at their positions (in particular starting pitching). Yeah, there's definitely some weakness (catching in particular) and they are missing that 'sure thing star' type guy (though they just graduated 3 such guys), but I'm not sure I'd call them short on prospects. They have plenty of guys in the pipeline that should be able to step in and contribute at a high level. As well, they will probably be able to add a pretty top shelf guy come next June.
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Honestly, this was the right decision. Rosario is still on the bit lucky side, but at least he's producing. Buxton isn't and he isn't getting better. Letting him spend the rest of the season working in AAA isn't a bad thing.
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Twins should be buyers this offseason
diehardtwinsfan replied to AZTwin's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
You're right... I forgot him. He's definitely in the mix. I'm a bit surprised the Angels sold low there as I'd have thought someone would give up something for him. He's not a great pitcher, but a pretty consistent 4/5 guy. He's a non-tender candidate much like Milone is this offseason. I would think someone would give up a similar upside guy in the low minors for a sure thing like that. Those 4/5 guys, as much as we rag on them, are pretty useful to most teams. Kind of gets back to my original point though. We need to make room for the kids, not keep guys like Santiago around. My ideal rotation next season is Santana, Gibson, Berrios, May, Duffey. Plenty of upside there, but some expected struggles. -
If they cut him, it was only a couple days ago as Gibbons last played on the 2nd. The Twins handling of said prospects is definitely case by case. I do take issue though with bad management of options. You only get 3, and while you hope a guy like Buxton or Berrios really takes off in option year 1 or 2, you cannot count on it, so if you make them an early add, they better stay on the 25. That irked me about Buxton last year and Berrios this year as both were early additions to the 40 man and were optioned in the same year. The worst part is that Buxton has been optioned twice now and really has not spent a lot of time in the high minors. That time is very beneficial to them. We tend to gloss over it, but there's a pretty significant talent gap between AAA and MLB, and the win now nature of MLB doesn't always encourage good behaviors or allow that continued development. Yeah, a guy can put up sexy numbers in a short stint at AAA. It doesn't mean they've mastered all they can learn there or that a guy like Buxton still couldn't be working on off speed pitch recognition in an environment where he is actually contributing and isn't pressing b/c he's afraid he might get cut/sent down.
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Yeah, If only we had a chapman to trade away... Perkins is probably the only guy who would have garnered something of value in a trade to be honest.
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Twins should be buyers this offseason
diehardtwinsfan replied to AZTwin's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
If they want a legit number 2, it needs to be someone with a lot of control left, and that also means they need to sell on some of their other pitchers. These are the pitchers they have going for 5 spots: Guaranteed: Santana, Gibson, probably Berrios Most likely: Duffey In the mix: Hughes, May, Mejia, Dean, Wheeler, Milone. I'm fine with adding a number 2 to the mix if said number 2 is under control for a minimum of 3 years, preferably 4. But that gets expensive, and you might be able to get rid of one of those guys listed as a thrown in, but in reality, people need to get moved. The other problem is that a team trading said number 2 obviously doesn't have contention planned in the near future, so they are going to want guys like Gordon and Gonsalves to likely headline that trade. I think in reality, the Twins would be better off developing their own potential 2s in guys like Berrios, Gonsalves, and potentially May. No reason Berrios and May cannot be in the rotation opening day with Gonsalves likely forcing it at some point next season. edit: side note, but Santana right now is a 2. I'd love to get 4 more pitchers of that caliber in the rotation, but the real reality is that it makes more sense to develop them than to trade for them. -
I'm actually pretty high on him. I still think he can be a 1/2 type guy at most, probably more likely a 2/3 guy, but that's still pretty good. He's gotten the Ks at ever stop while being young for the league. Of course, Liam Hendricks did too, so that has to be taken with a grain of salt.
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The late add didn't help, but honestly, walking 4 guys per nine innings was the big issue. In retrospect, I probably should have slotted him somewhere in the 20-30 range.
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quantity I believe. I want to say the bonus was in the low 6 figure range.
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Yeah, I've started keeping an eye on the occasional box score and he caught my eye. The fact that he's doing as well as he is against guys much older is probably my biggest criterion for eval.
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Game Thread: Twins @ Rays, 8/6/16, 5:10 PM CDT
diehardtwinsfan replied to USAFChief's topic in Archived Game Threads
Counting Crows
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quite well.
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Dave, I think you're missing a digit on the title. Needs a zero at the end I think But yeah, he's been streaky this season, but overall pretty good. Here's the real question, what do you do with Mauer/Vargas/Park. 3 guys for 2 spots.
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I actually had Arraez quiet a bit higher in my first iteration and ended up dropping him out of the top 10. Don't know why, but I really like the kid. Doing what he's doing as a 19 year old in low A is pretty impressive.
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biggest take away I'd note is that there are still quite a bit in terms of high ceiling guys in the system.
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Yeah, I've been working on this since early July. I had a great plan for using the strikethrough font as I expected nothing on the trade market... then I had to improvise as Meyer's had already been written up.
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I like potential, but I think to an extent that it has to be earned. Don't have a problem with high ranking certain high ceiling guys in the lower minors, but I have to think that production matters at some point.
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I doubt it is that simple. Part of it is establishing good habits. At the ML level, it's win now believe it or not and when you don't have good habits, it is really easy to get out of them. Buxton clearly needs more time working on advanced pitching, and even though he has shown he can hit AAA pitching, I don't think that he's in the 'nothing left to learn' category, especially given how badly he's performed at the major league level. My biggest concern with him to be honest is that he is a really good example of poor management. He was an early add to the 40 man and then saw his first option burned last season. His second was burned this season and while he's improved, it has only been marginal. Next year is his last options year, and I really hope the Twins new brass doesn't make the same mistake as the old brass in handing him the CF job despite his continued inability to hit major league pitching. If that means he spends most or all of next year destroying AAA, then so be it.
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I updated my prospect list. Feel free to flame away. http://twinsdaily.com/blog/84/entry-8433-2016-top-30-minnesota-prospects/
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Honestly, what they really wanted was an international draft/slotting system, and the CBA was setup in this way because it would fail. The criticism of how teams would play this out was well documented the day that CBA was signed. I don't think these guys were that dumb not to see how it would play out. They needed a good reason for an international draft, because at the end of the day, that's what they wanted.
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He needs AAA. Somewhere along the lines we need to recognize that time in the minors actually helps develop that talent. Quite frankly, he hasn't spent enough time down there. He gets away from his good habits in AAA too quickly
