diehardtwinsfan

I guess to me that depends on who gets left unprotected. We already have a few bullpen projects, and is our project better than some other teams? Perhaps a defense first MI type guy with some hitting upside might work there too at which the Twins could leave Vielma unprotected.

3 and 4 are good starting places, but I think you get a bit more than that for Dozier. Maybe not much more, but I think you do. I'd pass on 5. If I'm talking Pirates, Glasnow is the main piece. 2 is pretty bad. No way that gets done. Problem with the Yankees if that what they have to offer is some pretty high end pitching that will be starting in AA. That's not the best fit in terms of need, but if you walk away with Justus Sheffield, another one of their A+ arms, and some change, then I think you did OK. Both are top 100 guys. If all these are on the table and those are final offers, I do number 1 and don't look back.

good plan. I recommend a low carb diet. Works quite well and I can still eat wings. Just saying though... watching baseball and inactivity go hand in hand, unless throwing your remote at the TV counts.

Until Brock resurrects the offseason forum, I'll just link this here http://twinsdaily.com/blog/84/entry-8614-my-2016-offseason-plan/ Flame away!!!

Yankees say hi as well.

CBA also plays a role in this, depending on where things go with compensation picks. If they are gone, that may change the value of the trade a bit (not too much I'd think, but it definitely changes his value if the team knows they cannot offer QO and get a 1st rounder). That said, I think they have to target ML ready pitching (and not Vance Worley types). If I get a headliner, I want it being an ace upside guy in the high minors or an ace upside guy who did pretty well in his first ML season. Not too terribly concerned about the rest of the picks, other than that I'd hope at least one more is somewhere in the top 100.

If 500k is the asking price, I think someone would have done it by now. I have no problems with the signing if they chose to do it. He's not going to be guaranteed a roster spot. The team needs pitching. It needs it now, not later. The more guys like that that they can add, the better chance they have of finding someone that can stick.

Hunter Smith (former punter for the Colts) wrote an interesting book called the Jersey Effect, and spoke about how we treat athletes in society in general (though in the book's case, it comes back down to many of our own idols so to speak), but one thing that he mentioned is just how much they (and himself for that matter) get coddled. You have talent, you can get away with a lot more. It makes it hard b/c many of these kids have been given far more leeway than they ever should, and not surprisingly, they turn into adults with some pretty serious flaws. For all the talk about how sports teaches character, it seems as though far more of the ones that make the professional stage seem to lack it. This isn't to say that all athletes are bad, but I think there's something to be said to the lack of parenting many of these people have had in their lives.

I'm not sure the problem is with identifying talent nearly as much as it is developing it. Too many guys do well in the minors only to get destroyed in the majors. I expect that to an extent, but the volume makes me wonder what is going on in getting these guys ready.

if you look at the larger sample of playoff teams, you'll see far more large salaried teams that small. That's reality. The same is true with series winners and repeats. Having money matters. It's not an obstacle that cannot be overcome, but it's silly to think that it can be ignored.

why in the world would someone want to work in that sinking ship in AZ, or did they finally clean house?

Not sure I'd put Kepler in CF except in an emergency. I think that LF may already be in the system in the form of Palka/Walker. One, I suspect, will likely carve out a good ML career, and I'm fine letting Rosario man LF for the time being. Then again, hitting isn't our problem right now.

Well said... I'm assuming that's 2 on top of Santana doing what he did in 2016 for us. That's the problem. No one will do that in the current FA market, and to hope Santana can do that for 2 more years is also a bit of a gamble. Can May get there in 2017? I'd say better than average. Gibson? Push Mejia - probably not in 2017. Berrios - probably not (though I think his long term potential is there) Hughes - I have a better chance at the powerball. Gonsalves - not likely in 2017. Long term is the right answer here. We need arms for 2018, not more contracts in 2017. Like it or not, with 100+ losses, we need to figure out which of these arms will stick. I'm not saying that we shouldn't be creative to get some higher ceiling arms, but trading the farm for a year of a guy like Sale is the worst possible way to do this and likely guarantees us far more 100 loss seasons down the road.

I love this analogy Smeeeeeeeeeeeeegal....

I'm not saying Gibson isn't expendable. I am saying that given the paucity of 2017 FA options available, the high cost acquiring premium SP talent (of which we both agree that Gibson is not one of those), and the lack of internal options, you give him another chance. Every player is different. Gibson has had a grand total of a little over 2 years worth of starts in the majors. You are hardly in "he is what he is" territory. That's it. Cutting/trading him here with no real replacement shows not only a lack of patience, but it also ignores the potential that he has shown at the ML level. If someone came along and offered to take on the risk of developing him for the potential reward and in the process exchanged a much needed piece for our current Twins, then yes, I do it and do it in a heart beat. I'm not going to cut him to replace him with a Jason Wheeler type or rush a Stephen Gonsalves to the majors before he's ready. 2018 is going to be a much better FA class, and if Gibson lays another egg in 2017, that makes the decision very easy. If he pitches well, then the question of what to do with him suddenly has more options.

I like that he's tough on himself. He wants to be a grade A+ player and knows there are gaps in his game to do so. He needs to work on both sides of the ball, becoming a better route runner in the OF and getting that average up a bit. It's nice to see that power blossoming, but I think he's going to need to work a bit more on contact. His walk rate was pretty nice, but he saw a big spike in his K rate in the majors. He was much more disciplined in the minors, and if he can get his BA up to around his minor league average (.280) without sacrificing his new found power, he's going to be a stud.

I didn't say he had a stellar season. He got off to bad starts in both 2014 and 2015 and then finished the season quite well, pitching well above average down the stretch. The potential is there, and given the org weaknesses, not one to ignore... Now if someone offers something nice for him, sure, but I don't see teams trading young cost-controlled ML ready pitching for Gibson. Perhaps you can get that catcher if you're lucky, but I doubt that. I keep Gibson one more year.

I'll have to disagree here. Sano is without question below average defensively, but even that is certainly improvable... look at Plouffe was just as bad when he came up. Escobar is average who can be slightly above. Polanco at 2B is above average. Mauer/Park are above average. Buxton is above average. Kepler is a bit of a risk, but I think he can improve there, even so he seemed average. Rosario is above average. There's one defensive liability with the hitting core. The problem going forward won't be defense, especially if that becomes a point of emphasis on this team.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but given his age, he's subject to international signing rules instead of being a true free agent. This should mute his price a bit. Not sure where the Twins stand in terms of bonus pool money (I think they still have some), so honestly, I'm of the opinion that they spend the money. I don't care if the upside is a 3 starter. Those are valuable... and I'd note that occasionally upside projections can be wrong. I'm never going to fault the team for adding talent. As such, I'm on board with this.

hmmm.... making the championship and having two guys in the top 500? Not good

I have a few points to make here, and I apologize if the Long Island's I'm drinking in the Dominican might have clouded them a bit and no, I didn't find a SS, C, or SP while I was here. Small market is a component to failure, but not an excuse. I hate these either or propositions, whether it is baseball, politics, or really anything. Small market is a component that leaves us at a disadvantage, but smart people can overcome it, though it's harder. I think the problem with TR in general is that while being smart, his skills got stale and the small market advantages he found in the mid-2000s stopped working when the nerds took over baseball. Falvey, (I hope) will lead some much needed change here.The hitting core is here now, and will likely only get better. Pitching needs to be fixed by 2018, not 2020. You won't find much for 2017 fixes in the FA class, though right now the 2018 FA class looks VERY promising.Falvey will need to add his coaches (he also needs a GM yet, but that's a different issue). Some will likely not be kept, not because they are or are not qualified, but because he has some good people he trusts and wants to bring in. The rest will likely stick around for now as he assesses their talents. I do think there's some reason to make some changes at the major league level. I don't think everyone will go. If you expect wholesale purging of jobs, I don't see it. I'm no Nostradamus here, but I think that's smart. Some may go, especially if Falvey has someone he likes as a replacement. I do hope there are some changes at the ML level b/c while the minor league coaches seem to be doing their job, there does seem to be some serious problems with talent (particularly pitching) transitioning to the majors.The same goes with the rotation. Lots of guys need to be figured out, but it's time to move on from the Santiago's of the world. You trade or non-tender there. Given the lack of decent pitching out there, Santiago might fetch a high risk/high reward type low A player... and I'm fine with that.On to the original point. I'm fine with the 1 year deals to guys like Brett Anderson depending on how plan A shakes out. If this is plan A, I don't like it. The hitting core is here. Some pitching needs evaluation. That requires time, and yes, it means we may find ourselves in a similar hole in April-June, but if it helps us figure out which of the young guys need to be kept vs. jettisoned, so be it.I have no plans on giving Hughes a shot. He's under contract and even with a stellar year, 2+ years remaining isn't going to do much. He's probably a pen option for now and likely a 60 day candidate. A full season of baseball will without doubt give him a chance to be stretched out if he's ready. Let him be an option at that point, not a plan for April.Gibson has shown flashes, but yes I understand the lack of patience. He fell on his face this year, though the previous two years he posted some pretty stellar numbers for long periods of time. He gets one more shot.May did a good job when he had a shot, but never really had an extended trial. He deserves a fair shake. I might add, he's had less of a shot than Duffey and has a higher ceiling.Berrios goes nowhere either. You roll with him. Burning an option here is reasonable, but I want to see Berrios with some new coaching.One of Duffey/Mejia/??? certainly should get a shot on opening day. The other(s) can sit in AAA and move up as someone gets optioned. Again, I'm fine with this. 2017 is going to suck, let's let it suck with the possibility of identifying long term talent that can be a fixture. You have to try these guys out at some time. The key here is near ready vs. ready. There's a big difference with pretty big results. Like it or not, we have to figure out who can go.As to my plan A, I think you need to acquire some MLB ready type asset. Yes, the price is high. As well, we have two tradable assets that should net a supremely high return in Dozier and Santana. My target would be a guy like Glasnow. Yes, I've had a man-crush on him for a couple years seeing him pitch here in Indianapolis, but a team like the Pirates IS a contender NOW and needs help at 2B. They don't have the luxury of giving up a spot in the rotation to let Glasnow take his lumps as games matter to them. Dozier can net a guy like Glasnow and a few lower minor lottery tickets, and I'm fine with that. It doesn't need to be Glasnow. There are other high ceiling near MLB or MLB ready pitchers that can be targeted here, he just happens to be a good fit. The Dodgers, Yankees, or perhaps someone else may pay handsomely for 2 years of BD. I think you do it.Santana gets shopped too, perhaps for that catcher.. and more lottery tickets (also part of plan A). If he stays, the Brett Anderson type move makes ZERO sense. If he goes, I can see it. If the team really sucks and Anderson is good, then you trade Anderson at the deadline. If the team is good and Anderson is good, then it adds some depth you can cycle through. If by chance Gibson is rebounding, or a guy like Duffey, Mejia, etc. clearly becomes 4th starter value, that's fine. They can be moved for a quasi-decent spec making room for the high minors guys. If the team is bad and Anderson is bad, then Anderson gets the boot when some high minors guy earns it.End result, the team should improve (though I'd argue they could this with no plan). It's possible we are back in the same boat come May, and I'm OK with that... THIS YEAR. I expect some improvement over the season as some of the pitchers figure it out. The ones that don't get replaced, whether that be with a 2018 pre-season FA or with high minors talent that has earned it. I'm not planning on 1 over all again, but I do think it's smart to be willing to take it for the name of figuring out what we have. To me, that was the biggest failure of Ryan. He never really went full in on the rebuild. He did some things very well, but instead of getting the Feldman's of the world, he picked up the Milones and Correia's... That worked in the early 2000s, not so much in present day. Edit: Glasnow has a #1 ceiling... just for the record. I'd be targeting 1/2 type guys.

For the record, Falvey was here in town just a few weeks ago being announced as the new POBO. I wouldn't be surprised if that conversation was had back then when contact was allowed (given he was already in town). These all fall under "easy decisions." My guess is that the tougher decisions will all be punted until after the WS. Nothing really nefarious here.

I heard a rumor there was a major front office shakeup I'm guessing that will trickle down to development too.

Anyone have a list of the guys that need adding to the 40 man this offseason?

I think the TD consensus is to trade BD and install Polanco there. That's where I am. That said, Polanco does have value. He's young, has 5 or 6 seasons remaining under control, has had stellar minor league numbers, and pretty decent major league ones. Is there risk there? Sure, but it's low. The question is what the reward would look like. That said, I think it would be downright foolish for the Twins to trade him. I really hope option 5 is not on the table here. I've got to think it's option 2. I'd rather him not be the SS, for no other reason than I think it would be odd to rely on BD knowing he is either gone after 2018 or very expensive during what would be his decline phase (which to be fair could start as soon as this season, asking him to hit another 40 HR is asking a lot). I've got to think the smart move is trading BD. Polanco won't likely upgrade Dozier. He may never upgrade Dozier, but what he can be is above average with the bat and glove at an up the middle position. A high OBP and a low 800s OPS with above average defense is still a fine player, and if trading the 900s OPS guy with sub par defense nets a top shelf pitcher, the team is better off in both the short term and long term.