chpettit19

I'd accept that answer. I wouldn't have paid either of them over $10 million. My point was simply that the idea that someone with Gallo's history, and success in 2021, most definitely costs more than "a tenth of" his $11 million. Bellinger getting 17.5 guaranteed is pretty obvious proof of that. Free agency is an expensive game to play. If you want the Twins to sign free agents you simply have to accept that the price tags are going to feel high.

I don't follow. I don't see how you get to someone ignoring metrics and following instinct. Do you believe the Phillies and Astros had metrics predicting that those players would be that bad and ignored them and went with instinct instead? My point is that literally every team signs guys every bit as bad as the Twins do. There's only so many above average players in baseball. The Twins problem is 2 fold. They haven't developed any front line pitching, or star position players that can stay healthy. They've developed major league talent on the mound and in the field, but no Bregman, Tucker, Alvarez type healthy position players or Valdez, Urquidy, Garcia type starters. Every team misses on trades and signings. Every single one. The difference is that when the Astros miss on Goodrum and Castro it's not that big of a deal because they have homegrown stars. The Twins don't. Happ, Shoemaker, Smith, etc. are misses for sure. The metrics didn't predict they'd be great. They weren't expecting that out of any of them. They were expecting them to be serviceable until a young guy took their spot. Unfortunately, none of the young arms were healthy, or performing, as Happ and Shoemaker collapsed. The Twins failures are pitching development and healthy position players. Not their judgements on guys like Happ, Shoemaker, and Smith. Those types of signings are made by every team every year. And fail with every team every year. It's why nobody builds a team through free agency.

3 all star games and 2 gold gloves between them. Almost like the baseball industry thought they've had some value during their careers. Silly Twins.

I mean they were able to trade Happ. Is the requirement for success 100% or can we accept that literally every team makes bad signings and trades? World Series champs Houston Astros started 2022 with Jason Castro on their roster. Him of the -.6 bWAR and 11 OPS+ in 2022. Oh shoot, look at that terribly run team having Niko Goodrum on their opening day roster, too. He had a -9 OPS+. That's not a typo. He went negative he was so bad. That terribly run team they played in the World Series? Paid Didi Gregorius $15.25 million for -.4 bWAR and 60 OPS+ as their opening day SS. They paid Jeurys Familia $6 million for -.7 bWAR. Those silly guys had Kyle Gibson and his 5.05 ERA and .7 bWAR on their opening day roster. Too bad they didn't have any data, research, investigators, or scouts, huh? Perspective is interesting...

No, he can't. He had to officially opt out (file paperwork) by a certain date (5 days after the WS if I'm not mistaken). No take backs here.

I know your stance on team building and am not interested in getting into a debate on strategies. The angst those fans are feeling is a result of not winning a championship in 74 years, and the team trading away their stars instead of keeping them. Being at a disadvantage doesn't change that. Whether it's the right strategy or not isn't the point. Fandom isn't about logic, it's about passion. I can understand the logic behind the Twins not wanting to pay for stars while still not liking, or even agreeing with, it. And Cleveland fans can feel the same way about their team. It's not about paying attention to anything. They haven't won a championship in 74 years, and trade their biggest stars unless they're willing to take incredibly team friendly deals. Whether that bothers you or not isn't the point. It doesn't make it wrong that other fans get upset about it. And I'm not annoyed with fans, nor do I let any of this take away from my enjoyment of baseball.

Part of the point here is simply that we're not the only cranky fan base, and fandom isn't usually logical. I'd argue the Twins being top 10 should mean we aren't that cranky. But all those wins for Cleveland hasn't stopped their WS draught, or had them expanding their payroll. Instead they cut payroll. That's typically more than enough to create fan annoyance.

Welcome to Twins Daily! 2 question for you...Which of the following 2 players would you pay more for? And what would you pay each player. Both considered above average to elite outfield defenders. Stats from 2020-2022 BA/OBP/SLG/OPS, 2Bs, HR, SB, OPS+ Player A: .203/.272/.376/.648, 46, 41, 23, 74 Player B: .183/.319/.409/.728, 29, 67, 11, 101 Stats from 2017-2022 Player A: .248/.332/.487/.819, 134, 152, 62, 117 Player B: .201/.328/.475/.803, 86, 170, 25, 112 So Player A slightly better over last 6 years, but Player B better over last 3. Who would you pay more and what would you pay each of them?

Not sure travel/weather is a believable excuse 3 hrs before the press conference is set to start.

I think the current regime is too data driven on some in game type decisions, but I can promise you they're looking at far more than just exit velocities and spin rates when it comes to player acquisitions. The amount of work, and research, that goes into these players is insane. I think it's probably pretty close to something you'd be alright with based on our back and forth here. Their scouts are still super important. They have "investigators" who do checks into their personal lives and relationships. They're using more "old school" slash line stats like BA and OBP along with the new ball data stuff. They've got all sorts of ballpark data that goes into things as well. It's crazy, and incredibly in depth. But it's also all very private as each FO thinks they've created the best way to judge talent and don't want it to get out. Lot's of NDAs signed in the baseball biz.

Why would this cause them to have buyer's remorse on Gallo? They were supposed to expect Correa to fail a physical so they can get back in on Correa now that he'll be cheaper since he couldn't pass the physical? If the Giants don't sign him at the agreed to deal they're either completely out on him, in which case the Twins should likely be, too, or they'll be in on him for much cheaper, in which case the 1 year deal for Gallo really shouldn't have anything to do with agreeing to pay Correa on a cheaper, long-term deal.

How high do they have to be to be considered "getting on the more walks?"

Correct. Swanson has agreed to his deal. But he just got married (last Saturday if memory serves) so he hasn't been in for his official physical and signing yet. But he's going to the Cubs barring any unforeseen health issues.

It is certainly a very interesting situation. I hope it's nothing serious and he's able to get his deal done (even though I wanted the Twins to bring him back). I'd be shocked if it's the Giants playing games and trying to reduce his price tag in anyway.

Any sort of degenerative disorder that would lead them to worry that his career will be nowhere as long as they'd expected.

Swanson hasn't signed. Because he hasn't done his physical. There's a difference between just getting general medical reports and doing their physical before signing their deal. It can take this long to get the physical done because Correa was busy with his life and this was the first time he could get to San Fran to have the team doctors check him out. Or maybe the lead doctor was on vacation and just got back to town. PA has nothing to get involved with. His deal, like every other one in every major sport, is based on passing a physical. He apparently might not have passed his. But this is all standard stuff. The announcement of an agreement (even in trades) is not the same as the player actually signing their deal. The Twins just signed Joey Gallo today even though we all knew they'd agreed to terms last week. He just got here to take his physical.

They certainly have themselves well positioned, no arguing that. It will be interesting to see how all those rookies do in their second seasons, though. My money would still be on them, but there's a lot of variability in that lineup. I love the Josh Bell signing for them. But we've seen plenty of career years be just that, a year. Can Kwan replicate that incredible rookie season? Can Gimenez produce similar results without a .353 BABIP? Or can he maintain that BABIP? There's plenty of young guys who burst on the scene and then flop. Not predicting that's what happens, and I enjoy watching their style of baseball, but there's plenty of question marks, and a still tiny payroll. It makes sense that Cleveland fans are the most optimistic going into 2023, but there's plenty to complain about as well with their lack of impact moves (outside of Bell) for the last handful of years. Similar to Rays fans. Team wins a good amount, but never really make big moves other than trading away their stars more often than not.

I think the Cleveland fans are the most positive at this point, but they haven't won a World Series in like 74 years and just spent the last few years cutting payroll to the bare minimum. I think they're plenty annoyed.

I think the plan is Farmer as the fulltime shortstop, but if Martin tears it up in St Paul for the first month, and they have him playing SS there, it'll be interesting to see if he becomes an option to spell Farmer. I'd guess at this point Gordon is the primary backup to Farmer. But the Twins have been real stubborn about playing Martin at short.

They don't have these kinds of numbers to look at for as many of the minor leaguers (although it's expanding rapidly). I do agree that there's likely some Arraez types, and even Joe Ryan types, that are lost in the cracks of the minors because they don't hit the ball a mile or throw 100 mph. But I think they're fewer than you'd expect. There's certainly more to it than suggesting that since an elite prospect like Buxton can bounce back to where you'd expect him in exit velos, anyone can do it. There's a reason Arraez is 1 of 620, though. But there's also a whole bunch of minor leaguers that we've all looked at their super low ERAs, or super high BAs, over the years and questioned why they weren't getting a shot only to see them get a shot and immediately realize why they weren't getting a shot. I think you're short changing the process here a lot. There's far more that goes into deciding to promote minor leaguers than batted ball data or batting averages. I also think it's quite unfair to suggest the people running day to day operations don't really understand what you're saying because they "never really played." I'd say most people would list Andrew Friedman at, or near, the top of baseball execs. He's been leading the charge with these types of data sets for years. He played a couple injury riddled years at Tulane. Does that count as "really playing?" And these guys are all baseball lifers. They played growing up, but weren't talented enough to make it a career playing. They'd blow your mind with their baseball knowledge. Do they sometimes let the numbers blind other parts of the game? 100%, but so do guys like Sam Fuld who GMed the Phillies to the World Series this year based on the same sort of numbers and processes. These decisions aren't just made by looking at spreadsheets. They're combined with scouting reports, and real human pieces (clubhouse fit/personality, etc. Although, Falvine clearly got blinded by the numbers on Donaldson in this sense). Statcast data is simply 1 part of it. Yes, you get extra chances if you show the extremes of the physical attributes. That's the same in every sport. But that's not just data, that's also in the scouting. Bat speed is scouted. Scouts have been eyeballing exit velos for decades. We're just putting high-tech equipment in more places to get exact numbers now. Pitch velo has been eye balled, then gunned, for decades. We're just adding spin, etc. to it now. These aren't new ideas, just new ways of quantifying the old ideas. Babe Ruth got his first job in baseball cuz when he hit the ball it came off his bat in a different way. He had more exit velocity. They just had a human with eyes saying "yeah, that's way better than that other guy," and not radars and cameras.

Based on what metric? Those are their career numbers. Not seeing a single one that suggests Adrianza wasn't "much worse than Correa." There's the top 25 shortstops, with at least 250 PAs, in baseball last year by wRC+. Ehire's career best year was 2019 with the Twins when he had a 102 wRC+ in 84 games. He was at 95 wRC+ in 109 games in 2021. Never topped 90 in any other season. Not wanting to pay Correa $35 million a year, or even 25 a year, is a reasonable take. But suggesting he's not night and day better than Ehire Adrianza is pretty far fetched.

We've evolved far beyond simply pitch velocity. We know, and have for a long time, that simply throwing hard isn't enough. We're talking spin rates, axis, release points, etc. now. No 1 batted or thrown ball data point is going to predict anything 100%. But that exit velocity chart speaks volumes, doesn't it? It's not simply because they hit the ball hard that they're productive, but, generally speaking, in order to hit the ball hard you have to hit it on the barrel squarely. Exit velo may be 1 data point, but in order to achieve that you have to do other things well. Just because someone can swing hard doesn't mean they can square the ball up. There's a lot more that goes into achieving the exit velocities. If you're hitting a lot of pop ups and grounders you're likely not getting a lot of hits. You're also not hitting the ball hard. It's not because you physically lack the ability to hit the ball 110 mph, it's because you can't square it up frequently enough to make it matter. The batted and thrown ball data is simply the next step beyond "the performance" of a player. It's compiled to show how players achieve what they did. Joe Ryan doesn't throw hard, but he's got a very unique plane to his fastball so it's much more effective than someone like Pagan's who throws way harder, but has no deception (or control). Stuff+, Location+, and Pitching+ are fascinating tools (to some of us at least) that look at what makes someone like Pagan terrible even though he looks like he should be good. As for Buxton his early numbers looked like this: 2015: 87 batted balls- 86.4 avg exit velo, 106.6 max, 21.8 hardhit%, 2.2 barrels/PA% 2016: 187 batted balls- 89.5, 111.3, 31.6, 3 2017: 319 batted balls- 88.1, 110.9, 32, 3.5 His last 2 years look like this: 2021: 173 batted balls- 92.5, 115.6, 53.8, 12.2 2022: 225 batted balls- 92.9, 113.5, 50.2, 9.7

They were 10th in baseball in BB% last year, FYI.

I was simply providing you with information. Didn't make any comment on what that information meant, or how you should take it. Your information was incorrect so I thought I'd give you the correct information for your own knowledge. You're free to do whatever you want with that information. Getting upset about receiving information is an interesting response, though.

My guess is that Carew, Gwynn, Rose, etc would all have exit velos around the same as Arraez. They weren't guys trying to murder the ball all the time, and were more about just making solid contact and placing it where they ain't. Ichiro was well beyond his prime by the time we got this technology in place, but on 849 batted balls between 2015 and 2019 he had an average exit velo of 82.9. Max of 106.9 which is quite impressive. But at that point of his career he was no longer as adept at squaring the ball up and avoiding the super low exit velos like Arraez is right now, and the Carew types were. Which is why he struggled so much. He could still hit it incredibly hard when he squared it up, but he squared it up less and less by 2015.