Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

chpettit19

Community Moderator
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    8,590

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    169

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Tracker: Picks & Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by chpettit19

  1. chpettit19
    I agree they're in a very interesting spot, and don't have any issue with people wanting to go after the playoffs in a year when the league is so down at this point. But I'd still trade Jeffers and Ryan. The Twins are still below .500. If they go on an absolute heater like 11-5 or something before the deadline, I'd reconsider. But if they're still struggling to get to, and stay above, .500, I'm pointing my efforts straight at 2027 and beyond. Again, I understand people wanting to play for this year, but I'm just not interested in being a "playoff contender" simply because the league is down so far. To me, that just means most of the AL (11 teams?) are going to be focused on this year and not doing more to build for the future. If Anaheim, KC, and Vegas/Sacramento are the only clear "sellers" in the AL, I sell Jeffers and Ryan and give myself more of a boost heading into 2027 while the other 11 squads are standing still on that front. I want true contenders, not just a below .500 team that is in the fight because the rest of the league has also struggled.
  2. chpettit19
    No, they should have guys they're willing to play in a role. Platoon bat, defensive sub/stolen base threat. Something. Not roster guys they don't ever want to put in games. Having a guy on your roster you're afraid of having to put on the field is bad roster management. The goal for major league teams is to have 26 guys they're willing to play and use in a combination of roles that allows them to counter the other team's moves. Rostering Fedko, McCusker, Keirsey types, or 3rd catchers, limits their options. It is not maximizing your roster. No team has 9 guys (or 10 with 2 catchers) that they play every day in every situation. Not even the Dodgers. So, you need to have guys up and down the roster who can fill in for each other's gaps in skill. Having a roster spot used on a guy you don't trust to truly fill any gap in another player's skill is a complete and utter waste of a roster spot and bad roster management.
  3. chpettit19
    I think there's a very real difference in this conversation between IL stints and just rest days off. I reject the idea that any individual player needs half days off by DHing or any more regular rest days off than 5 to 7. They don't have the drugs like back then, but they have so much more information on training, diet, etc. and such better health services than back then. There is no physical reason a guy can't play 155+ games beyond injury. And injury, for this discussion, is very different because it opens another roster spot. If Lewis goes down, they wouldn't have to slide Caratini and/or Jeffers into 1B, they could put Clemens there with Culpepper coming up to take over 2B or SS (hypothetical based on health for everyone other than Lewis). Missed time for injury is very different and doesn't play so much into this discussion because it's opening a new roster spot. I agree Jackson isn't an unreasonable 13th guy based on current roster construction. But, to me, that's missing the bigger point of not having better options than Kersey, McCusker, Fedko, or Jackson for years now. That is a very real concern. Even if they have likely better support coming through the minors.
  4. chpettit19
    Bell is a DH. Why can't he play every day? If he's one of your 9 best hitters, and a better hitter than Jeffers or Caratini, why would you sit him ever? Sure, Lewis will have days off, but it's not once a week or anything. Outside of injuries, there is no reason Lewis, or any other guy who's supposed to be a "starter," can't play 160+ games a year. Certainly don't need to give him any more than 5 to 7 scheduled days off during the season. Agree, the Twins really don't have that guy. And that's a large part of this problem. They've done a very poor job of building out a roster and system that can avoid having guys on it that they don't want to put in the game ever. It's really the point of this debate. The fact that they can't find a better option for the 13th guy on the roster than Kersey, McCusker, Fedko, or a 3rd catcher.
  5. chpettit19
    I don't disagree with this general idea, but are you sitting Bell or Lewis for Caratini or Jeffers? I didn't mention DH and 1B because they would put guys there, but those are spots that most certainly don't need to be taken up with Caratini or Jeffers. Unless Jeffers is going to continue to hit like a DH (I have my doubts based on his entire career), neither him nor Caratini would be the first or second (Larnach) options at DH. I don't think "emergency injury replacement" in RF is adding any real value to Jackson. It's nice to have, but they'd have to be in a pretty specific situation for that to happen. He's essentially a once-a-week catcher when they're on long stretches without a day off in your scenario. It's not the worst roster situation they've found themselves in, but it's certainly not ideal. Them having 3 switch hitters and far fewer platoon bats than they used to is the real reason having an essentially completely wasted roster spot isn't awful for them. They have a group of guys who are clearly playing better than the bench guys and should be starting most every day. I still don't think 3rd catcher is really the best use of that roster spot. Give me a true defensive/SB demon who can be used every day over a 3rd catcher on a roster with plenty of DH/1B options.
  6. chpettit19
    As opposed to your argument? You listed a guy who hasn't even been on the Mets for a month while providing inaccurate stas as proof. You haven't provided any evidence either. I'm all ears for you going through all 30 teams and proving that the norm is to have a guy with no roster role whatsoever. I'm actually looking forward to it.
  7. chpettit19
    Yes, that is a good comp for the Twins in that he's a player with no real role. But in terms of 3rd catchers, he is at least trusted to stand in those spots. The Twins would never put Jeffers, Caratini, or Jackson at 3B or LF.
  8. chpettit19
    You come up with a better proxy. The hitter with the 13th most PAs for a team assumes that player has been on the team the entire year. Which is an awful assumption. My argument is not that the Twins should have 13 guys they want to play all the time. It's that they are outside the norm in that they have frequently rostered players with no role whatsoever. This website is funny because you'll see people who think platoon bats are the only way to use the 13th position player spot. I have no problem with the Guardians using Petey Halpin as a nearly daily defensive replacement. That's a real, defined role. Kyler Fedko wasn't a platoon bat. James Outman wasn't a platoon bat. They weren't trusted to hit against anyone. But they also weren't defensive replacements or elite base stealers. They were guys with no role at all. Players the coaching staff had no situation where they looked at those guys as the best options or wanted to put them in. That is very different than teams having limited roles for a player like Halpin. The Phillies are a good example as @arby58 has pointed out with Stubbs as their 3rd catcher having no real role. But it is absolutely outside the norm to have a guy on your roster that you never want to put on the field.
  9. chpettit19
    Petey Halpin has been optioned multiple times this year. He's played nearly every day when he's been on the MLB roster. Garrett Stubbs, the 3rd catcher in Philly, hasn't been on the MLB roster all season and plays LF, 3B, and 1B for them beyond catching. I never claimed the Twins were alone. But they are outside the norm. And context matters. James Outman wasn't a Petey Halpin defender who played every game for his glove, he was a guy who wasn't the best option for anything. The Phillies situation is certainly closer with Stubbs.
  10. chpettit19
    Zack Short started the year in Detroit. He has 16 PAs for the Mets. Missing quite a bit of context and have some incorrect data there. Just like going off what batter has the 13th most PAs for a team is missing a whole lot of context.
  11. chpettit19
    He'd be #2 for me because he hasn't stepped foot on a pro field yet. But he's certainly in the conversation for #1 with Jenkins. It's those 2 and then everyone else.
  12. chpettit19
    That's 27 more PAs in 19 fewer games than James Outman had with the Twins this year. I don't think that's the same at all. He's a short-side platoon guy. Outman would've been the big side of a platoon but wasn't even that. The Twins use of the 13th spot is absolutely not the norm in modern baseball. Teams don't tend to roster guys they don't trust to hit against anyone ever or be defensive replacements. They have some platoon spots so there'll be guys who don't play as many games (like Arias) because they're righties who only hit against lefties, but it is not typical to carry a guy you don't ever trust to step into the batter's box against any pitcher ever.
  13. chpettit19
    Extra dramatics to show how he wasn't at all like the MVP candidates he was being comped against. People tend to be more open to comps when you can give them blind numbers and they can't pick out their favorite Twins player when comped against a guy they aren't as familiar with but certainly don't see as an elite player at the position.
  14. chpettit19
    I hope Boras can convince a team he's a .800+ (or .900+ if you're going off this year) OPS guy and he gets crazy money. I don't think it's likely. I think most teams are going to look at a guy going into his age 30 season, who already has trouble sustaining performance for entire seasons, has never started more than 81 games at catcher, and is a below average defensive catcher and think he's more likely than not going to perform around his career number of a .756 OPS over the life of a deal. And that's a rich man's Victor Caratini. Or at least a whole lot closer to Victor Caratini than any of the guys who got $100+ million deals.
  15. chpettit19
    I don't think 60 would be crazy, no.
  16. chpettit19
    At that point we need to be trading Culpepper and Kriedler for bullpen help and getting Houston to the bigs so we can have a parade in late October...
  17. chpettit19
    Ryan Jeffers has never started more than 81 games at catcher. Ever.
  18. chpettit19
    I commented on JT's age and that his defense is what is carrying his value. Jeffers has 0 defensive value. If his bat dips, he's then a below average defensive catcher and below average hitter. JT can survive a dip in offense because he started with a much higher offensive baseline and he also continues to bring defensive value. I disagree with you because I don't think the $15 million projects are low and I don't think he'll get 5 years. I think he'll get 3 or 4 years at 45 to 55 million. I disagree because I think you've significantly overrated Jeffers due to familiarity with him.
  19. chpettit19
    We can debate the definition of a "starting" catcher, but Jeffers has never started more than 81 games in a season at catcher. I don't call that a "starting" catcher. I already told you they have identical 106 OPS+ numbers the last 2 years combined. If you think Jeffers is a 130-140 OPS+ hitter as a primary/starting catcher, we just simply need to agree to disagree. I hope Boras can convince a team he's who you think he is and he gets paid 150 million. Seems like a good guy and I have no reason to not wish him wealth and success. But I don't think it's a likely proposition.
  20. chpettit19
    Never!
  21. chpettit19
    But, if you want to do WAR, here's the comps you're throwing out: Raleigh: 15 WAR in that time frame. Smith: 12.8 JT: 9.3 Realmuto is the closest, and he got 3 years and 45 million. But he's a premiere defensive catcher who doesn't rely solely on his offense to make up his numbers so the expectation is he'll provide more value as he ages to combat the point you bring up of the offensive variability of catchers. Raleigh is still an elite defender even with his offense completely cratering. Before JT got paid, he was putting up 4.5 WAR a season, not 2. So, even the stat you want to go with puts Jeffers far more than a step below the guys you're talking about. His contract will be much closer to Alejandro Kirk (2 WAR catcher). But since he'll likely get fewer years than Kirk due to his age, you're most likely looking at 3 years and 40 to 50 million.
  22. chpettit19
    .246/.328/.414/.742 .263/.329/.406/.735 Which one is Caratini and which one is Jeffers? Those are their slash lines from the last 2 seasons. Neither is a plus defender. They're both bat first catchers with identical OPS+ numbers. I don't care at all about WAR numbers for catchers. The defensive metrics placed in there makes it a near useless stat for me.
  23. chpettit19
    I mean, anything is possible, but you're comparing him to MVP candidates and gold glove type defenders. Career OPS for Jeffers is .756. Yes, he had 1 other year like this 4 seasons ago. Boras will do everything he can to point to that, and maybe he gets a team to believe in it. But his career number is much closer to what he was the last 2 years. Victor Caratini. That's my disagreement. You're pointing to the wrong comps. He's not Will Smith, Cal Raleigh, or JT Realmuto. He's Victor Caratini. If the Twins need to spend because of CBA rule changes, other teams are going to need to cut because of CBA rule changes. The free agent list won't look like it does today. The owners aren't going to agree to a floor without a cap. And the Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, etc. will have to get under the cap. And they'll have to trade and cut expensive players to do it. Overspending on Jeffers by $10 million would not be a good use of their money.
  24. chpettit19
    I assume you mean Morris, not Matthews, but this is pretty much where I'm at on things, too.
  25. chpettit19
    There are 2 catchers in MLB with $100 million deals currently. JT Realmuto had one previously. Ryan Jeffers is not JT Realmuto, Cal Raleigh, or Will Smith. He is not a plus defender. And he is not an .800+ OPS guy. He isn't ever getting MVP votes. I think familiarity, and general lack of offensive stars in MN, has lead to a significant overrating of Ryan Jeffers. He's absolutely a solid player who can start for a contender. But he's not in the same stratosphere as the catchers who get $100 million deals. His best case is probably the Kirk deal at 5 years and 58 million. But Kirk is 26, not 29. Jeffers getting 5 years and being paid until he's 34 is also no sure thing. Would people have been happy paying Victor Caratini 5 years and 50+ million this offseason? If I told you we signed Victor Caratini to a 1 year, $23 million deal before this season would you have been thrilled? They're both below average defenders and their lines the last 2 years are: .246/.328/.414/.742 .263/.329/.406/.735 Both had an OPS+ of 106. Unless you think Ryan Jeffers is suddenly a .900 OPS guy, he's Victor Caratini. And nobody would be happy paying Victor Caratini the numbers that get thrown around on Jeffers.
×
×
  • Create New...