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gunnarthor

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Everything posted by gunnarthor

  1. gunnarthor
    Yeah, he'd be good, too.
  2. gunnarthor
    Yep. And really, a lot of the guys in the 10-35 range have been going all over the place in mocks. I think this should be a fun draft. If we could nab a guy like Dakota Hudson at 15 and Sean Murphy, Logan Ice or Cooper Johnson (catchers) at 56, I'd be pretty happy. (As an aside, Logan Ice is the coolest name ever).
  3. gunnarthor
    It looks like BA updated their top 300 - http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft-preview/? Looks like a few players have jumped up - Trammel, for instance. Dakota Hudson (my hope) is sitting at 14.
  4. gunnarthor
    Pinto's bat was never quite enough to move beyond catcher - Collins bat is supposed to be better than that. But I don't think Collins makes it to 15.
  5. gunnarthor
    Marlon Byrd gets 162 game suspension which probably ends his career. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/06/marlon-byrd-positive-ped-test-162-game-ban.html
  6. gunnarthor
    They filed a grievance. I believe the CBA gave the PA the right to enforce draft disputes b/c someone had to. http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/report-mlbpa-files-grievance-astros-aiken-nix-marshall/#0P4R8KXvbS7LZTPT.97 The grievance was on behalf of Nix (although the article also names Aiken), who settled for the Astros for over 1m dollars. He was drafted again by the Padres and made a bit more. Good for him.
  7. gunnarthor
    I think that's a pretty good explanation - better control and cleaner mechanics. Usually that's what separates relief pitchers from starting pitchers. Add in a possible third pitch and you have a potential starter.
  8. gunnarthor
    From mlbpipeline - "That said, it's easier to project Zack as a possible starter because he has a cleaner delivery and throws more strikes. He also has the makings of a plus changeup with sink, though it can get a bit firm at times and he hasn't used it much as a reliever. Louisville has kept him in the bullpen, as may the team that drafts Burdi in hopes of expediting him to the big leagues."
  9. gunnarthor
    Oh. You were using his 19 innings in 2011. OK.
  10. gunnarthor
    I don't think so. I think he might go before 15 anyway. BA's most recent mock had him going #12 as a fast to the majors reliever. He's a first round talent but we said that about his brother (who every mock had going at 23 to Detroit) and he fell to the second round. If I'm the Twins, I do something else at 15 but would jump all over him if he fell like his brother at 56.
  11. gunnarthor
    Assuming Atlanta knew that Sano and Buxton were off limits and they really wanted bats, I think it would have to start with Kepler. Atlanta is collecting draft picks, too. So, Kepler, #74 pick and Nick Gordon/Jorge Polanco (depending on how they view him) might be doable. I'm not sure that's a trade the Twins would want. fangraphs doesn't suggest quite the velocity drop that Thylos is suggesting but I don't think he's a #1 or anything. (Of course, the Twins were interested in Johnny Cueto around the same age but couldn't get a deal together and Cueto turned into a legit front of the rotation starter). I think if the Twins wanted to put that package out there, they could get a better return.
  12. gunnarthor
    Hopefully, Kepler and Buxton are up to stay. On paper, both could be pretty good on-base guys for this lineup.
  13. gunnarthor
    Yeah, I'm not sure how much impact the PA has but they did take up the cause of both Aiken and Nix a few years back against the Astros.
  14. gunnarthor
    Anyone know how much Luis Arraez signed for in 2013?
  15. gunnarthor
    Agree with others that the Arya storyline is strange. I have no idea what will happen to her. My guess was that she was going to be ordered by the Faceless Men to kill her brother but now that's she left them - and is being pursued by them - that's out. She's easily my favorite character in the books but I have no idea how her story arc fits into this. Nice to see Dany on dragon back but they should have CGI'd in more Dorthraki troops. It looked a little lame. I assume Jaimie is going to break the siege of Riverrun sort of like he did in the books - with the Freys hopelessly threatening Edmure's life - and taking some hostages for the crown and the Vale troops go north. But obviously the Blackfish's return means something so maybe Briene joins them and kills Walder Frey? Fun season so far.
  16. gunnarthor
    It seems to help to kill Shockwave but only until it reloads itself.
  17. gunnarthor
    OK. Let's assume there are 15 elite guys and another 30 who deserve a 2m price tag or better. The Twins pick at 15 and again at 56. A bunch of teams have multiple picks before 56. The Padres have four. But the Reds, Atlanta, White Sox have three picks in the top 55. So, if there are 45 2m talents in this draft, they Twins might/should be able to get a solid pick at 15 and possibly 56 but it's unlikely that a 2m talent is sitting there at 73/74. I do think it makes sense to be prepared to pick a guy dropping at 73 and punt a few picks if needed but I don't like the idea of the Twins going cheap at 15 and 56 b/c, even if they do, I don't think the payoff would be worth it and there's no promise that one of those players would still be on the board. What might makes sense is saving a bit here and there and sign a "tough sign" HS arm like Gonsalves who took 500k or so overslot to sign or Cabbage who took 250k more. I expect there are a lot of HS arms who teams are fairly comfortable with knowing that the player really doesn't want to go to college so a few extra hundred grand could help albeit in not so sexy ways.
  18. gunnarthor
    I believe their is a class action lawsuit against baseball for how they treat minor league players but I don't know that status of the case. Hopefully things change for them b/c I'm pretty sure the Twins are doing is standard. Which sucks.
  19. gunnarthor
    Yes, they have 5.7m for their first 4 picks and I do think they could spread it around a bit but a lot of teams pick in between. The Twins shouldn't go too cheap at 15. But they could punt 76 and give 1.5 or so to both 56 and 73 or something like that. I guess I'm just not sure how many 2m talents are in this draft (or players holding out for that). My understanding was that this draft was somewhat shallow but large.
  20. gunnarthor
    That's not quite true. They got Cabbage in the 4th round last year. Kendrik and Wade both at slot last year. They did save money on their 5th round pick (IIRC) and used it to sign Cabbage and thought they saved money on Cody but he didn't sign.
  21. gunnarthor
    The Twins could sign a guy at 15 for 2.5 and grab the BPA at 56 and say "we'll give you 2m (the #56 slot plus a bit from 15 and our 7-10 picks) but the player doesn't have to respond. So the team would be left wondering if the guy at 56 will sign (and punting those picks if he doesn't) or play the draft straight. But I think it's probably a better plan to figure out your draft budget and get players that will fit it.
  22. gunnarthor
    The reason the Astros were able to get Cameron is because Bregman signed for nearly 1.5m less than slot and they punted their 7-10 picks for senior signs. The Twins could shave a bit off of #15 but it would still be hard to get a second guy for 3m or more. If the Twins sign get a guy a bit underslot at 15 for something like 2.5m, they'd save about 320k. At 56, they sign the sliding guy (hoping other teams passed on him and if Mannings tag is 3m it's unlikely that other teams would pass). The slot value of 56 is 1.14m so they'd need to come up with 1.86 or so. The value of their 7-10 picks is 710k. Generally, you give senior signs 10k that means they saved 670k for the #56 pick. Less than half way there.
  23. gunnarthor
    Yeah, that seemed high. He and Zeurch (and Dunn) seem to be going up the draft boards pretty fast.
  24. gunnarthor
    And BA has their newest mock up today as well - http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/mock-draft-4-0/#4WJ8TZ3sI6TBDErL.97 "15. TWINS: If Dunn gets this far, the Twins would be in. Their need for power arms pushes them toward a choice between Pittsburgh’s T.J. Zeuch and Mississippi State’s Dakota Hudson, who scuffled a bit Thursday in the SEC tournament but still has big stuff, and he throws a lot of strikes. PICK: Dakota Hudson, rhp" I'd be very happy with that pick.
  25. gunnarthor
    Nice but I'll throw out that Klaw has said that stats like fip for minor leaguers (esp A ball) isn't very useful. It's still probably more about the scouting then the stat line.
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