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gunnarthor

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Everything posted by gunnarthor

  1. gunnarthor
    Someone posted this on my facebook. I laughed.
  2. gunnarthor
    Good for him. I will say he's my favorite columnist around. I've always thought that his love of baseball and Twins history was genuine. It really bothered him when the Twins were floundering in the 90s - that was a hell of a time. So I hope he gets in.
  3. gunnarthor
    Maybe. But after last years handful of AA starts we saw decent numbers despite low k-totals and enough for Klaw to still rank him a top 100 prospect.
  4. gunnarthor
    So Nadal just got bounced at Wimbledon before the semi-finals. Someone posted this amazing stat. Over the last 57 majors (his first championship Wimbledon 2003) including ones he didn't enter, Federer has failed to make the quarter finals only 9 times and failed to make the semi-finals only 15 times. Over the last 50 majors (going to his first championship French Open 2005), including ones he didn't enter, Nadal has failed to make the quarter finals 18 times and failed to make the semi-finals 25 times.
  5. gunnarthor
    Yes, I should have said 9 starts this year. 14 last year. Not sure that changes it that much.
  6. gunnarthor
    I think our view of Stewart is too much influenced by where he was drafted. If he was drafted in the 4th round and Gonsalves was drafted in the first, would we have the same level of angst? He's made 9 AA starts and has struggled with control, walking more than he has struck out. That's not great but it's still only 9 starts. He's still young for AA. He still throws mid 90s. He did make a top 100 entering the season. Sickels wrote about ignoring draft positioning a few years back. It's a worthwhile read. https://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/12/16/5216130/christian-colon-and-the-psychology-of-player-analysis Obviously top 5 picks in the draft are really important because they are more likely to give us Mauer-like players but I think we're focusing too much on that outcome. Even for top picks, solid non-all-star careers are great returns. Jameson Taillon, Christian Colon, Drew Pomeranz, Barrett Loux, Matt Harvey, Delino DeShields, Karsten Whitson, Michael Choice - those are 8 of the first 10 picks in the 2010 draft. Drafting and developing guys is hard. Right now both Stewart and Jay's ceiling has been significantly lowered in most people's eyes. And that lowering, I think, has put too much of a negative spin on them. (Although season ending injuries are terrifying).
  7. gunnarthor
    The Twins could have gone over by 5% but they'd also pay a 75% luxury tax on that amount so to go over by 700k would actually cost the Pohlads a bit over 1.2m. Seems dubious to expect this ownership group to pay a tax they don't have to pay.
  8. gunnarthor
    I'm not sure harder is the problem. He still seems to have good velocity. He might be like Mike Pelfrey who had a pretty solid fastball (93 avg) and low k numbers. I have to think it's a mechanical issue. How is it possible that a mid 90s fastball isn't striking out more AA hitters?
  9. gunnarthor
    I think you're over thinking this. Teams probably don't have a #1, #2 etc list like BA has. They have tiers. The Twins probably had 4-5 guys in the #1 pick tier based on ability. They then negotiated with those guys. Greene, Wright and McKay all said they'd need 7m or more. Lewis said he'd take 6.7m. The Twins didn't see any major difference in any of them so they went with Lewis who gave them more flexibility with the rest of their draft. All the major draft sights - BA, pipeline, Klaw - have said that Lewis' tools are worthy of the #1 pick so it's not like the Twins sacrificed talent at the top.
  10. gunnarthor
    Nice day for lots of our guys. Good to see.
  11. gunnarthor
    Sweet.
  12. gunnarthor
    Baddoo with four walks, awesome. He's a long way off but if he ends up with good plate discipline to go with all those other tools, woo-hoo.
  13. gunnarthor
    Agreed. I prefer Mayo/Callis at mlbpipeline. I think they are probably closest to the industry. Fangraphs, Klaw, Sickels are all good too. I used to really like BP guys but they just get hired by mlb teams.
  14. gunnarthor
    Oh no, man. The Twins don't deserve three all-stars.
  15. gunnarthor
    I think BA was the lowest on the Twins at the start of the season. I imagine a few of the other midseason updates will include Gonsalves and maybe Romero. I wouldn't worry too much about the rankings right now. As the other poster noted, a lot of it has to do with Stewart and Jay but the young players taken last year and this year won't be on these lists right away but I suspect the 2016 and 2017 drafts will end up with more than just two guys getting ranked.
  16. gunnarthor
    It's a compliment. http://www.startribune.com/similarities-between-these-twins-and-those-of-2015-are-striking/432796993/ He still doesn't think the Twins are good because they've been blown out too many times but admits that they seem hard to kill.
  17. gunnarthor
    I liked Arcia and I think the Twins didn't give him much of a shot last year - a real problem that Molitor displayed with several young guys. But he's a DH only.
  18. gunnarthor
    So you think the pitchers in the SEC, like Faedo, only threw him fastballs?
  19. gunnarthor
    I think Baddoo is quickly becoming my favorite non-top prospect. I think he could really jump up these rankings in a year.
  20. gunnarthor
    One of the few knocks on Gibson in the minors that I remember reading was that he lacked the "meanness" to be an effective starter. He was too nice. I assume that meant not throwing inside, too much nibbling etc.
  21. gunnarthor
    fip and fwar are tied together. I think there's enough doubt about fip out there to go with b-ref for most. k% is 24th on fangraphs (not that there' that much difference) but pretty good pitchers can still live in that area. Gotta admit, I didn't know they tracked QS%.
  22. gunnarthor
    At the break, Santana is #2 in IP, 4th in ERA, 5th in ERA+, 6th in WAR, 1st in both CG and SHO, 5th in WHIP and 7th in WPA. Seems like a reasonable pick for the all-star game.
  23. gunnarthor
    Well, on mlb's list Mauricio is #10, Valera is #21 and Rodriguez is #9. Marte is #3. That's probably closer to the industry consensus. Daniel Flores, #2 on both lists, signed for 3.1m. Franco, #1, got 3.8m. The bigger question, in my mind, is why did Pereira, #4 on both lists, sign with the Yankees for only 1.5m? Are the Yankees doing a Red Sox and funneling him money?
  24. gunnarthor
    Good for both and both are deserving. And, more importantly, my pre-season prediction that Sano would be an all-star was correct!
  25. gunnarthor
    He's getting 3m because that's how much this market has valued him at.
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