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gunnarthor

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Everything posted by gunnarthor

  1. gunnarthor
    I'm a bit surprised on how bad Baltimore's pitching has been. Gausman has been horrible and they are having Twins-like problems filling out that rotation.
  2. gunnarthor
    That would have been awesome!
  3. gunnarthor
    I wouldn't say it's a weak system, I'd say it's a really young system. Right now, we have maybe 5 guys in AA/AAA that are semi-exciting or better (Gordon's a stud, Romero, Gonsalves ... Granite? Wade?). The bullpen group - Jay, Burdi, Reed, Chargois, Melotakis has been, for the most part, disappointing beyond my worst fears. I suppose we should note that Curtiss has been good. But in the low minors, wow. Lewis is the proverbial toolshed. Kiriloff, Blankenhorn, Diaz, Rooker, Javier are pretty exciting and potentially really big bats. I like Miranda and Baddoo a ton and am really looking forward to how they play now that they've gained a bunch of muscle. Enlow, Leach, Balozovic and Benninghoff are all really young high upside arms that fans have been clamoring for for years. I think this will be the first time since Sano and Rosario were destroying low A pitching and fighting for the HR title that we'll be focusing on the low minors.
  4. gunnarthor
    Sure but that's probably not the right way to look at trades. I'm ok with trading Santana but the return you suggested looks bad to me. Webb is a career minor leaguer so far. If our scouts think Montgomery's legit, that's one thing. But a handful of starts in the majors probably isn't enough to throw out the scouting reports in the offseason.
  5. gunnarthor
    Oh yeah, you're right. I mis-read that. So add in his age 31 and 32 years so, maybe 800-900 innings and 10 WAR?
  6. gunnarthor
    So I should update this again. Blankenhorn was struggling earlier but has gotten better. He made the all-star team and was on mlbpipeline's prospect team of the week this week - http://m.mlb.com/news/article/237411606/prospect-team-of-week-led-by-ryan-mcmahon/?topicid=151437456 He's been hitting pretty well since a slump and started coming around in mid-May but since June 1st, Blankenhorn has been crushing it. He's hitting .333/.415/.696 with 8 walks against 15 strike outs. He also has 5 triples but I don't think he's that fast so ... He also stole home a few games ago.
  7. gunnarthor
    I hadn't realized how much Pitt is struggling this year. Cole is more name than elite pitcher. Polanco is a disaster for them. Marte was suspended for PEDs. Their #1 prospect, Austin Meadows, is a stud OFer but having a rough time in AAA (but he'll be fine in the long run). And McCutchen is no longer the all-star he used to be. They should be selling a lot of guys. Not sure how they'd fit with the Twins but is Polanco a change of scenery guy or just a hacker? He's under a longterm contract but I'm not sure if he's a better bet than Rosario (for the risk). Would Pitt want to move him to make room for Meadows?
  8. gunnarthor
    Sure, but other teams would probably put his value at 4th OF and maybe give a slight bonus for youth and years of control. Better than Sam Fuld which got us Tommy Milone, for example. Maybe you could find another Hector Santiago type pitcher with 1 year of control?
  9. gunnarthor
    I wouldn't be surprised if the Twins were kicking around the idea of trading Gordon (or Polanco or Dozier or Lewis). Not sure what the level or interest would be. Rays, assuming they put Archer on the market, would want a strong return. He's signed for 2018-2019 as well so a team gets 2.5 years out of the trade. He's only had one big WAR year - 2015. He was a 1.8 WAR guy last year despite 200+ innings and 10 k/9. I guess his home park is pretty good for pitchers. So a trading team could expect roughly 500 innings and, what, 7 WAR? So that's probably not the Sale return but more than just Gordon.
  10. gunnarthor
    I don't expect any major trade during the season but I do think we will make a few trades in the offseason. That said, I think the team might move Grossman in the next 5 weeks. Molitor sure seems to like Vargas (I don't) and Grossman can't field but he can get on base. I could see a few teams willing to offer something of value for him.
  11. gunnarthor
    I really enjoyed the comments on how baseball is louder and more meaningful in the Caribbean. We saw a bit of that during the World Baseball thing.
  12. gunnarthor
    I have no idea. The Rays let him start 3 games in AAA this year and then he made 8 relief appearances in AAA before coming up to the Rays. When he was traded by us, the most common scouting reports on him had him as a useful future bullpen piece even though he was starting at the time. Same song and dance we heard on Berrios - short RHP but he didn't have Berrios' stuff.
  13. gunnarthor
    He's looking good. Good for him.
  14. gunnarthor
    Hu is a bullpen arm. Basically, the Twins traded future Jepsen for 2015 Jepsen. If they aren't allowed to make that trade, they basically can't trade prospects.
  15. gunnarthor
    I think those types of trades might be pretty dangerous. Maybe Montgomery is more than he seems but he also might be another Tyler Duffey. He wasn't a highly regarded pitcher and most scouting reports had him as a backend guy or long relief. Tyler Webb is a 26 year old relief pitcher who has never reached the majors but putting good numbers in AAA. That kind of trade has pretty big risk.
  16. gunnarthor
    I'm ok with the offense for the most part. Agreed that we need more out of first base but for our park and our youth, we're ok. I like Polanco and Kepler a lot, I think both will be major assets in the long run but it's ok if they are struggling a bit right now.
  17. gunnarthor
    I talk to my banking guy but I also read a lot of articles off of yahoo finance and barrons (you can subscribe pretty cheaply to that). I agree with Mike that you should understand the idea of your stock, for the most part. I obviously don't have the ability to fully understand how Wells Fargo actually works of course but I can say "big bank" and understand a big part of it. You can find articles on motley fool, morningstar etc but you have to be careful to understand any built in bias - does motley fool want you to buy this stock? Compare it with how others are covering the stock. I prefer high dividend stocks with a long history of providing it. You can look at ratios like P/E or PEG and compare them to others in the same industry. I like doing that. And I think it makes sense to follow the news to see how things outside of the business will affect your stock - for example, China's economy tanked and that brought down Indian stocks as opposed to your company's CEO stole millions and set up a ponzi scheme. One scenario is far worse than the other. But at the end of the day, I'm not that smart so 'big dividend' is a good reducer of risk for me.
  18. gunnarthor
    Yeah, I think Birdwatcher has it more or less right.
  19. gunnarthor
    Ignoring every thing else in your post, the prosecutor didn't over charge. He was charged with second degree manslaughter and two counts of recklessly firing his weapon. When the national review calls out a verdict, you know we have problems. http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/448740/philando-castile-verdict-was-miscarriage-justice
  20. gunnarthor
    Without getting into this too much, I've been a lawyer for 15 years. Our justice system is broken. Prosecutors and Judges bend over backwards to keep the system how it is. That's why cops can kill black men just by saying the black man scared them. It happens everywhere. They didn't prosecute the cop who Tamir Rice. It's utterly broken. The only verdict that has surprised me was the Walter Scott mistrial where I figured the jury had to convict. Silly me. The only way to push back against law enforcement excess is to cut their budgets. The Courts will never stop this. I've never met a civil rights attorney or a public defender who didn't think our system is corrupt and broken. And I've met many cops and I would say as a group they suck with good people being in the minority. This BS we hear about they are good people with tough jobs is usually bull****. They are usually *******s with ugly racist views. They are cowards and bullies. In law school, I worked with a retired cop doing security who bragged about lying to get guys convicted. It's such a common problem, it's got its own name - testilying.
  21. gunnarthor
    I would imagine we'll see a lot promotions in the next two weeks.
  22. gunnarthor
    Glad he signed. Hopefully, he makes the Twins FO look great for the pick.
  23. gunnarthor
    http://m.mlb.com/news/article/236553468/twins-used-no-1-pick-to-have-best-2017-draft/
  24. gunnarthor
    Actually, Barnes made the fangraphs guys list at #96. http://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx
  25. gunnarthor
    It's amazing how many bad pitchers are out there. Cleveland and Baltimore are dying because of their staffs right now.
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