gunnarthor

Well, sure, if we're only looking at the scrap heap - most of those other bullpen pieces were added from our own farm system and in trades, but that wasn't what this discussion was about. From 99-07 (Ryan's first run), his bullpen's were pretty much always awesome. He has the tools to create a pretty good bullpen again, even if he doesn't spend 18m on an arm.

The Twins got some pretty good seasons (at least as effective as Sipp's other years) out of bargain bin guys like Fien, Burton, Guerrier, Reyes, Boyer.

Sure, but Clippard isn't signing for 6m/yr (at least I don't think he is). If you're going to lock up a relief pitcher on a 3/18 deal, I think I'd want a better track record than Tony Sipp.

Doesn't Sipp himself contradict your argument? He sucked for years, Houston got him last year on a 1y/2.5m deal. Now he signed his big contract. There are a few bullpen arms that are constantly good but most relief pitchers can have some pretty good years followed by a pretty bad year, and vice versa. I don't think any of these 6m guys are necessarily sure things.

I think we're worrying a bit too much about the pen. Even if they don't grab anyone, they have some nice parts. May, Perkins and Jepsen are solid. Chargois, Meyer and Burdi (not on the 40 man) could be big arms. They have a bit of a clog in the rotation so someone from the Hughes, Gibson, Santana, Milone, Nolasco, Duffey group will probably be in the pen - and maybe two if Berrios makes the team. I actually like Pressly. Sure, they could use another lefty and a guy like Clippard or Storen would make the pen a lot better. But they have a good backend already. As to Span, I'd be ok with him. It would probably mean Buxton starts at AAA but if he's hitting .400 in six weeks, Span would be a good insurance against a Santana-like drop off for Rosario or replace a failed Sano experiment in right field. And if everything is working out, well, then we have the too much talent problem, which is a good problem to have. Plus, I always liked Span.

Let's ignore the PED debate. I've always been iffy on Raines. He had a great peak but it was really short. He only had 6 seasons that were really HOF worthy, I think. in 21 seasons, he had fewer 4 WAR seasons than Jack Morris and Keith Hernandez and same number as John Olerud, Brad Radke and Tony Oliva. I think his peak was just too short. That said, if you think Raines is a HOFer, I don't know how you could not vote for Nomar whose peak was much better - unless you're using the compiler method.

Of the list, Gordon's the easy answer - during a chat last year, a BP writer gave him a future 70 value and other writers defended it. He can stick at short and should be a good hitter. I really like him. Jay will be fine. Stewart is the most interesting prospect we have this year, IMHO. I'm very interested to see how he does and if he can improve on his strikeout numbers. I think this year will answer a lot of questions, one way or other. I'm not nearly as high on Gonsalves or Walker as others. I think the Twins have 4 pitchers who could be a #1 or #2 starter (stuff-wise) if things broke right - Berrios, Jay, Meyer and Stewart. Walker needs plate discipline badly. Of those not listed, I actually like Thrylos' mention of Melotakis but I think Burdi is the pitching answer. He'll be a big weapon in the ML pen by July.

The article addresses that a bit - "Inside-Edge credits major-league teams for saving 179 hits over what was expected with an excellent play as of Tuesday, while bad defense was blamed for allowing 156 hits that normally would be outs. But that seems like a drop in the bucket given that position players have had 76,112 total chances this season. Baseball’s best defensive team, the Houston Astros, has saved only 25 hits all season because of the skill of its defenders, according to Inside-Edge."

I think you have to be really careful with defensive stats - we talked a lot about this last year with the Hunter signing. Depending on what defensive stat you want to use, he might be good or bad - fangraphs UZR went from negative to positive last year while b-r went from positive to neutral. And a lot of people have warned about the reliability of one years worth of defensive data, as well. A WSJ article last year put a lot of this into perspective: "Inside-Edge, a baseball analytics company that provides data to major-league teams, brings a big-data approach to scouting. Instead of just using a spray chart to calculate a player’s defensive value, their scouts watch every single play from every single team—twice. And by taking positioning into account in grading the difficulty of plays, Inside-Edge scouts not only found that the range of many players was being overstated, but so too was the overall importance of defense in preventing runs. The major revelation: The quality of a fielder doesn’t matter on most plays. Inside-Edge partner Kenny Kendrena says 24% of plays are almost always hits and 62% are almost always outs. The remaining plays where defenders can really distinguish themselves are so infrequent, he said, that the success in converting them can distort a fielder’s true skill." I think Dozier's defense at second base is good enough - he passes the eye test but isn't a gold glover.

I think Rosario's the better player, period. He's a better defender and a much better bet to play a corner OF spot. Plus, he's a Molitor guy and the Twins soured on Hicks. And he's cheaper. Hicks on-base ability was good but it isn't enough absent some improvement elsewhere, which we haven't seen in 3 years. Now he could turn it around in NY - it's a nice park to hit in - but outside of July last year, he has never shown an ability to hit, especially against RHP.

I think there might be something to that. I know I read something about Molitor being a little upset/surprised at Hicks for requesting some days off down the stretch but I can't remember where I read that. In any event, I certainly don't think it was a horrible trade.

Aaron Hicks had one good month at the plate and hasn't been able to hit otherwise. He was blocking the best prospect in the game and his bat certainly won't play in a corner - where he'd block Sano, Rosario and Kepler. The Twins traded him away for what looks to be a nice solid catcher. Cripes, even Klaw liked the trade. Ryan did a good job.

I don't really have a problem with it. It's December. He should have some time off. It'll be a long season for him next year so he should be rested.

Every team has question marks - last year we were wondering if Hunter was a good signing, if Hicks could even be a good player and if Mauer could bounce back. We were terrified of a regression season from Hughes and Suzuki. We were sure that if we were going to be good it was because Danny Santana and Vargas showed that their rookie seasons weren't flukes. And we know how that turned out. And we should be ok again this year for the same reason we were ok last year - young players and depth. Last year, Rosario, Escobar, Sano and Duffey picked the team up. We still have some pretty solid depth that isn't projected (at this time) to be starters on opening day (or possibly even on the opening day roster) - Arcia, Vargas, Kepler, Polanco, Berrios, Burdi, Meyer etc. The Twins have some really nice talent - probably the most talent since either 06 or 2010 - in their projected lineup. The season won't go exactly as planned - they never do - but this team should be competing for the playoffs and the AL central next year. Should be fun.

Kepler will, and should, open the season in AAA. That will be the case no matter what other changes the Twins make this offseason.

Honestly, I'd be ok if they all got arbitration.

I think the low value also makes it easier for the Twins to send him to AAA if he needs it rather than keeping him on the ML roster b/c of his salary. Hopefully that doesn't happen, of course.

Gosh, I'm blushing. All those times I was banned really meant something now .... But, more seriously, fun site and a real big thanks especially to Seth for his excellent coverage of the minor leagues.

Couple points. 1) Batting order really doesn't matter and is way overstated by fans. 2) The few studies of batting order that I am aware of suggest the #3 hitter is the most overrated spot - The most important spots in a batting order are the 1, 2 and 4 spots. 3) OPS isn't the best stat and OBP is probably a better guide. That said, I'm honestly not trying to defend Mauer. He was horrible last year and is a real problem going forward. But batting order doesn't really matter much.

I think Jorge is the "big" surprise and it's not that much of a surprise. He'll be 22 next year and still hasn't pitched in high A ball. If someone takes him they'd have to stash him in their pen all season. Doesn't seem likely.

Yeah, me too.

Yeah, he had a pectoral injury, IIRC. Going into the season, he was projected as a first round pick but b/c of the injury he dropped. It's hard to complain too much about that draft b/c it's looking like that might become of the Twins really good draft years (Buxton, Berrios, Chargois, Jones, Walker, Duffey) but I remember I was really hoping they'd take Pierce Johnson, who went one pick later. Johnson was supposed to be a quick to the majors college arm.

I'll try and reach for one potential reason for optimism for Mauer for next year. A lot of pretty good hitters (and Mauer was definitely a very good hitter) have had a bounce back season as they got old. Torre at 35 had a nice jump from a 91 OPS+ season to a 124 OPS+ season. Ted Simmons, Frank Thomas, Morneau, etc. So maybe Mauer has another high on-base season in him.

Just saw this thread, very nice write-up. As for expectations, I expect Park to come in second in ROY voting to Buxton, hit 28 HRs and make the all-star team.

Nice article. I think Hicks' ceiling is better but I don't think he can reach it. It's a solid trade but I understand the frustration.