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gunnarthor

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Everything posted by gunnarthor

  1. gunnarthor
    I liked the Cabbage pick a lot but I think he'll develop a lot like Kepler - it may take a few seasons before he finally breaks out. He's probably ranked about right for now but if he was a stock, I'd buy it while it was low. I like Harrison more than most people do. His plate discipline is great, esp considering his age. But he does have to develop power. I think he can do that. He should be back in AA next year and we'll wait on his power to show up.
  2. gunnarthor
    I'm not as high on Micheal as Thylos is but I do like him. I've always been impressed by his ability to get on base. I probably agree that he's most likely a role player but I think he's very close to meeting that, so I'd have him higher on the list. Also, Keaton Steele is a great name.
  3. gunnarthor
    I do think some team will pay him more based on defense than other teams will. I'd love to have him (and I think defensive stats aren't good - which isn't the same as saying defense isn't important). But how you view stats is really going to affect how you view Heyward.
  4. gunnarthor
    Heyward is interesting. His on-base skills are pretty awesome (even though they probably fall a bit going from the NL to AL). But he's going to get paid by someone based on defensive valuations and that team better hope they are measuring defense accurately. This article from the WSJ suggests they aren't. "Inside-Edge, a baseball analytics company that provides data to major-league teams, brings a big-data approach to scouting. Instead of just using a spray chart to calculate a player’s defensive value, their scouts watch every single play from every single team—twice. And by taking positioning into account in grading the difficulty of plays, Inside-Edge scouts not only found that the range of many players was being overstated, but so too was the overall importance of defense in preventing runs. The major revelation: The quality of a fielder doesn’t matter on most plays. Inside-Edge partner Kenny Kendrena says 24% of plays are almost always hits and 62% are almost always outs. The remaining plays where defenders can really distinguish themselves are so infrequent, he said, that the success in converting them can distort a fielder’s true skill." We saw this play out a lot this year with the Hunter debate, since the defensive stats hated him. Now the stats love Heyward. If they are right, Heyward is a consistent 6+ WAR player. If not, he's a 4 WAR player. That's still a really good player but not a guy who is going to turn your team around.
  5. gunnarthor
    I'm not if BP is actually meant to do much more than get stroke/swing down. I remember a few years ago a story about Delmon Young standing in against some of the Twins pitchers during their bullpen sessions with a bat but not swinging to get better plate discipline. I don't think we saw any improvement that year from Young.
  6. gunnarthor
    Nice write up. It's far too early to worry about Buxton. Considering where he started this year, essentially having lost a whole year last year, he's fine. Interestingly, I remember that Ryan quote. TD damn near blew up about how Ryan didn't understand baseball.
  7. gunnarthor
    Nice article, Seth. I think it's pretty clear that Molitor really likes Rosario and that Rosario has a pretty good competitive attitude that has helped him stay on an even keel in the majors. The OBP has to improve - SIckels had a nice piece about Rosario a few weeks back - but I think it will. I think I've been most surprised by his power playing so well up here. That has really been fun to see.
  8. gunnarthor
    Yeah, Gonsalves for Storen straight up might be pretty close to the Jepsen trade (Storen's a bit better but less team control). I'd probably be ok with that although I don't know what the FA relief pitcher market looks like. That said, I was thinking something more like Storen for our 2nd round pick and a lesser prospect (Jake Reed, maybe).
  9. gunnarthor
    Federalbaseball, the Nats TwinkieTown equivalent seems to think Storen won't be back - too many bridges burned. I think the price for Storen won't be that high - he has the injury so the Nats won't get to showcase him healthy. A deal somewhat similar to Jepsen might be enough - and the Nats and Twins certainly have been willing to trade before. The Twins also, IIRC, have a tradeable draft pick after the second round, which they could throw in for him.
  10. gunnarthor
    Pretty confident that the Twins sent scouts to see him in person.
  11. gunnarthor
    I think it really depends on the class. If you really love a guy and want to spend most of your money on him, fine. And some years it might make more sense to go the quantity route. In any event, over the last several years a lot of prospect guys have said nice things about the Twins in Latin America so it seems like they are doing one or two things right.
  12. gunnarthor
    IIRC, everyone loved Sano but Polanco wasn't a top level signee and Kepler was a bit of a curiosity. I think it's not quite all about money as it is getting the right guys. In any event, I don't know how to link a tweet but Callis and Badler had a fun conversation: Jim Callis ‏@jimcallisMLB 20 hours ago Jim Callis retweeted Ben Badler And I remember how @Pirates drafted Tony Sanchez fourth overall to save $ to go all in on Sano. Whoops. Jim Callis added, Ben Badler @BenBadler The same year the Twins international scouts signed Miguel Sano, they also signed Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler. What a monster class.
  13. gunnarthor
    I believe that the Yankees are still allowed to sign individuals but they can't sign anyone for more than 300k.
  14. gunnarthor
    Sure, why not?
  15. gunnarthor
    I like Gonsalves but this is too high. We're putting too much stock in numbers and not as much on scouting reports, which still question him. But he's an exciting prospect.
  16. gunnarthor
    And naturally the Twins have a .600 winning percent in NY over Gardy's last 3 years.
  17. gunnarthor
    My bad, I thought the other guy was in the PCL for some reason.
  18. gunnarthor
    I don't think this is a time to compare season stats in different minor leagues when Sano literally missed a full year. That he is hitting this well, after shaking off the rust, is amazing and really bodes well for his future at the ML level. He's an elite hitter.
  19. gunnarthor
    Over his last 37 games, Sano is hitting .309/.388/.574 with 21 walks against 36k. Those numbers are pretty close to what Buxton had hit over his last 42 minor league games. I'd certainly be willing to let him DH over Vargas at this point.
  20. gunnarthor
    Astro fans are pretty bitter about his call up. "I want to see him fail just so everyone knows Correa is definitively the best prospect in the majors." "Buxton Will Be Sucking Exhaust of Correa His Entire Career." "Ill never forget draft day He was pouting on national tv. He looked like my daughter about to throw a fit after Correa was selected. Then when the Twins picked him he had a look like he couldn’t care less."
  21. gunnarthor
    On Stewart, a few months ago Klaw mentioned in a chat that Stewart was really raw - more of a "thrower than a pitcher" was his phrase. He said the Twins were doing "one hell of a job" with his development and, at the time, the fear of lack of strike outs wasn't anything to worry about. I'm not sure if enough time has passed to change that view. My thoughts are similar to clutter and mike - he's a good talent but really inexperienced. He mostly played football and had enough natural ability in baseball to get by on working on it for 3 or 4 months a year. Now he's playing against better competition and learning to pitch, rather than throw. It's a learning curve. I'm concerned about the strike outs but smarter people than me don't seem to be worried so let's just hope he stays healthy and continues to learn how to pitch.
  22. gunnarthor
    The Twins have nabbed a few top 200 guys today. Hopefully a few of them can sign.
  23. gunnarthor
    Callis and Mayo have no idea who this guy (Lamount Wade) is
  24. gunnarthor
    Guy has some man muscles, though
  25. gunnarthor
    Bit of a difference between BA and mlb.com - 176 there. Fangraphs had him at 202. Basically, if his bat doesn't play, he won't. Still a pretty good pick for the 8th round.
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