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gunnarthor

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Everything posted by gunnarthor

  1. gunnarthor
    I own a few good dividend stocks like WFC and DE. I think the big banks (USB, GS, JPM) are relatively safe returns in this market and I like oil (HP is a oil rig company that I've owned in the past). If you don't want to own oil or banks, something like Pfizer might be of interest. I don't own any Pfizer but it has a solid dividend and there are people out there that think Pfizer is a potentially great buy IF a few things happen.
  2. gunnarthor
    While a few players probably played themselves out of the HOF (Jim Kaat) I think voters don't weight the bad seasons as much. Old traditional type voters will like Mauer as an MVP and only catcher to win a batting title. New type voters will latch onto his strong WAR totals like Jaffe at SI has. He'll get in.
  3. gunnarthor
    Um, have you met TD?
  4. gunnarthor
    "Greene’s father, Russell, took him to skid row when he was 10 so Hunter could talk to homeless people and understand that “each of them had a story and were once a child like me with dreams,” Hunter said. The outings had a lasting impact." That sounds like a pretty remarkable kid. Not sure if some of that isn't hype or exaggeration but it's nice that's he doing something at his young age.
  5. gunnarthor
    I think hard hit is a bit different than power, correct? I could be wrong but I thought hard hit had more to do with squaring the ball up (probably measured in mph off the bat) rather than .iso or some other metric. The problem with Mauer has been that he's not hitting the line drives anymore, he's rolling over to second base every other at-bat. As for his percentages, his career hard hit % is around 33 and his 2013 was one of his higher years and his 2014 was one of his lower. He had a 31% last year. So I'm not so sure how much value this is worth, at the end of the day. He's not the hitter he was, regardless of cause.
  6. gunnarthor
    I'm not sure you can place it on his concussion - he was also aging and dealing with a bunch of injuries over time. Most players see their hard hit % decline as they get older.
  7. gunnarthor
    Trying to time the market has never worked for me. The safest thing you can do is in invest in boring index funds. After that, research the company (and sector) so you understand how it works (Tata Motors was a huge hit for us once we understood what it was doing). Buy it when you can and just hold it until you actually need the money for something else (buying a home, paying off debt, retirement). If you're selling, it means someone else thinks the price you're selling at is a good price to jump in at. And they might be smarter than you. They are certainly smarter than me.
  8. gunnarthor
    Well, I think Joe still makes the HOF. He'll end his career with more than 2000 hits, 3 batting titles and an MVP. Tim Raines also had a very small peak and it looks like he'll get into the HOF. Mauer won't be a first ballot guy but he'll get in. As for the next few years, I think he'll have flashes of old Mauer and I really hope he has one more 4 WAR season in him but I suspect the next two seasons will look a lot like the last two seasons.
  9. gunnarthor
    I don't know. I remember in 06 the Twins wanted Soriano and offered Garza, Baker and another prospect to Washington. On the other hand, considering the angst of trading Ramos and Hu, I suspect the we'd probably offer Romero and leave it at that.
  10. gunnarthor
    Yeah, maybe. I'm sure they knew that they'd have to give up something of value but I am a little surprised about the reports. De Leon is ok but De Leon and Stewart is a deal breaker? So maybe there's something to your theory. In any event, it looks like the Dodgers will move onto Kinsler or Forsythe. I wonder what rumors we will hear about those dealings.
  11. gunnarthor
    Don't give up on 2017 doesn't mean they'd be competing for a playoff spot. We're not that 2012 Astros. We have the pieces in place for the most part. They just need to play.
  12. gunnarthor
    Yeah, I'd have him higher too but he is recovering from an injury. Callis at mlbpipeline just had a prospect inbox where he said Buehler is his pick for best break out from injury, or something like that. Callis is pretty high on Buehler.
  13. gunnarthor
    If you have that kind of confidence in De Leon, you should also have it in Berrios.
  14. gunnarthor
    Again, I think you're putting words in people's mouth when they didn't say it. I've seen no one suggest that the Twins will compete in 2017. And a way to make sure you stay bad is to trade away your best players in bad deals.
  15. gunnarthor
    On De Leon: "On the pitching side, righthander Jose De Leon must prove he can handle a starter’s workload after running into durability issues the last two seasons—but he has mid-rotation starter potential." Both fangraphs and BA have highlighted his durability while putting his upside at the mid-rotation. Not a future ace. This isn't a top 10 SP prospect. He's a fine prospect but he's not Berrios. He's certainly not Giolito.
  16. gunnarthor
    I think you're misrepresenting - or taking out of context - most people's views to create these arguments. Most of us are ok with trading Dozier but only on the right deal. Chitown was pretty clearly stating that a De Leon package wasn't sufficient for the cost of Dozier. And he's right, the Twins with De Leon and minus Dozier would be worse than the Twins with Dozier and no De Leon.
  17. gunnarthor
    Sure. It makes sense that Bellinger would be on a Twins ask list. But the bigger issue is what should the Twins receive. From all these reports, the Dodgers sure had a big list of people who weren't going to be included. Bellinger, Alvarez, Stewart, Verdugo, Urias, Buehler, Lux. There's not a lot to love if you take all those guys away. Sheffield is a reliever. Calhoun is a DH (if the Twins think he can play third, that's a different thing). Smith and Diaz are at A ball. Sborz? De Jong?
  18. gunnarthor
    I think you stated your opinion well. I just think that your ideas - screw the next two years and take what they give us - is a really bad one. Fortunately, the FO seems to agree and is holding out for a better return.
  19. gunnarthor
    I understand that. I've been investing for a long time so while I still know nothing, that phenomenon was something I learned about really quickly - esp the opposite. My stock would exceed expected earnings and it's price would fall. "What's wrong with you people!" But I still find it funny. My stock only missed by 3%. It's up today. Woo-hoo!
  20. gunnarthor
    I dunno. Losing to the Packers still killed me even when Rodgers was my fantasy football QB. (That I bench Cobb just added to my pain).
  21. gunnarthor
    You bet the over. As those of us who were happily following the 2015 Twins know, the pessimists were always reminding us that the Twins weren't good and used base runs as their go-to source. Well, base runs says that last years Twins were a 71 win team.
  22. gunnarthor
    I think De Leon's biggest question is health. Assuming he remained healthy all year, a 1:1 swamp would make more sense because he's shown that he's durable and his shoulder soreness is behind him. Arguably, that could make the Dodgers not want to move him for Dozier if he's that established. That said, just based on how the Dodgers operate, they won't let De Leon throw that many innings this year and he'll start the year in AAA. I think the best realistic case scenario for De Leon would be 12 or 15 ML starts and around 80 ML innings since the Dodgers have a bunch of starters in front of him without options.
  23. gunnarthor
    Regardless of what they do with Dozier, this team won't be bad. They have far too many young exciting pieces to be bad much longer. If they are bad, it won't be because they didn't move Dozier, it'll be because Sano and Buxton and Kepler and Jay and Berrios and Lavine and Falvey ****ed up. Right now, I'm happy that they turned down the Dodgers offer. If that's all they ever get and Dozier breaks his leg tomorrow, fine. They did the right thing.
  24. gunnarthor
    There's just too many unknowns in what the next two years hold. They could be in competition for a playoff spot in 2018. They could get a comp pick if they let him walk. They could always revisit trades.
  25. gunnarthor
    I think almost everyone has agreed that the Twins are right to take the ball and go home.
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