gunnarthor

Nice. Still hoping for Faedo to have a big season but Greene is a pretty exciting prospect. Really hope we can get someone to fall at 35 and 37.

So Trump is going to dismantle banking regulations. Buy big banks guys - at least until the next economic crisis the deregulation causes.

Nice write up again, Seth. I hope he does well. He's young so it'll take some time but most of the scouting reports on him have been pretty fun to read.

I think the new FO has made some pretty important changes but they are not on the playing field. Pickler in the dugout might be able to help Molitor. Molitor is a smart baseball mind but not a good player's manager. Maybe Pickler makes him keep starting May over Duffey or keeping D. Santana on the bench, though. They put Sean Johnson in charge of the draft. They gave Goins added resources. They've indicated that they'll platoon more. On the field there really wasn't that much they could do. Outside of catcher, the offense is more or less set and they got (arguably) the best defensive catcher for this staff that they could. They need Kepler and Buxton and Rosario to play. Rosario might be a fourth outfielder but it's too early to give up on him. The rotation is a mess but there isn't much in FA to fix it. Apparently they did try to trade Dozier but couldn't find a trade they liked. They should add some bullpen pieces before ST though. The rotation is what it is. They couldn't upgrade it much so we're stuck with it. Hopefully Berrios takes a step forward and Gibson pitches more like 2014-2015 Gibson. Longterm, I don't doubt that they know it's an issue but I'm not sure what else they could do about it.

Yeah, my guess is they are in the 75 win range this season. How the youngsters play will have a lot of impact on how the 2018 season projects. I do want to see some improvement in the bullpen though. Right now, Pressly is basically the only arm in there I actually like.

Oh yeah, it helps if you're willing to live in a small shack on the outskirts of town without heat and rabbit ear antennas ...

Nice write up. Frankly, I didn't know much about him. He dad played in the NFL? Bloodlines! Hope he makes it. I like the nugget that some saw him as a potential first rounder.

We got killed in 08 in the housing crisis. I still occasionally stay up at night and try to figure exactly how much money we lost as opposed to just renting during that time. It's depressing. Since then, we've been a bit paranoid about it and we bought our last house with cash we had saved up and no mortgage.

Nice article. I don't know how individual players digest information but I think it's a really good thing for them to have it. Obviously, Bautista is a very smart hitter but he has tons of natural ability as well so it's certainly not a cure all but if the information can be used to make the transition to the major easier (Buxton/Kepler), let's hope Pickler helps a lot. The Molitor nugget is interesting. I'm more than done with him as a manager but he certainly is a very smart baseball mind. Not sure why he isn't a better (in my view) manager.

Beats me. I've heard many people say this is another 100 loss team. I have not asked them their theories on baseruns.

Fancy man.

That's true, I did use baseruns. And when I used it I said if you used baseruns in 2015, then in fairness the 2016 team wasn't as bad.

Gonsalves isn't our #1 and, at least according to Klaw, Gonsalves and De Leon's rankings aren't that far apart.

FLR's your man. Right after Katrina, I kicked around buying it but I didn't. Wish I had. Nice dividend.

True, only Berrios has high upside but wasting Dozier isn't the way to fix it either. Brock Stewart slips right into the back of our rotation, for instance. (And most agree he wasn't offered with De Leon). So it doesn't look like - at this time - the Dozier trade wasn't going to move the needle much on the rotation. So you don't do it. The Twins do need better pitchers at the ML level. They have a handful of ranked prospects in AA/AAA right now. They have three picks in the top 37 (I think) in a college deep draft, and they can trade guys like Dozier or Santana. The Santana rumor mill is pretty empty and the best deal we've seen for Dozier hasn't been enough for most people. So that's what's left.

How you feel about De Leon is going to greatly alter your view. I was never very high on him b/c of his shoulder soreness. Klaw's ranking him in the 70s seems to reflect that as did fangraphs (and others) noting he was not their top pitching prospect. However, if you think De Leon is a difference maker, you look at this differently.

But it's not. We've already removed 46 starts from that group (Nolasco, Dean, Albers, Meyer, Milone) and hopefully another 26 with Duffey into the pen. If nothing else happens, at a minimum we'll get at least 25-40% new starts. I agree that Santana won't be as good but last year he and Gibson combined for 55 starts and 4.4 WAR. I think, even with regression, they can be a bit better. Berrios is the big one, of course. If he's pitching like last year, we're ****ed. But if turns into even a 2 WAR player, that's a huge swing. The point is, we don't have to take a deal we don't like to improve the rotation.

The Twins can do several things to improve the pitching without wasting their best trade chip. Even doing nothing, they can't expect positive regression. They can improve pitching by getting a pitch framing catcher (if you think that's a thing). They can improve pitching by improving the defense - esp the OF defense. I think they've done some of these. Obviously, if pitch framing is a thing, Castro is supposed to be good at it. An OF of Rosario/Buxton/Kepler should be an upgrade over last year, provided they hit and stay in the lineup. I'm not sold on the IF defense and, outside of Buxton, they don't have anyone who should be much more than average at best. But it's still an upgrade. If you don't want to role with Santana, Gibson, Santiago, May, Berrios (my guess for opening day), you can sign a FA starter like Hammel, who would probably be as effective as the "and junk" part of any De Leon trade. What "similar deals?" If you're talking about Dozier trades, again, I think you try and look at trades either of similar players or similar expected value. Ben Zorbrist was traded by Oakland to KC for half a season. KC received a pitcher in Manaea, who is pretty close to De Leon now, and a relief pitcher/occasional starter. The Royals were probably expecting maybe 1.5-2 WAR from Zobrist in that half season (optimistically) + bonus for making them a playoff team/WS contender. Dozier's expected value to the Dodgers - 8 WAR - is four times that of Zobrist's expected value to the Royals. So his return should be more than a top 50 prospect and a AAAA player. And so on

What's the first part? Do we ever trade Dozier? Not unless we get a deal we value.

"Thoroughly debunked" is not the same as "Levi doesn't agree." If you want to find out Dozier's worth, you look at similar trades, and compare the value a team traded away along with its position and length of control and see what the return was. That's why we know Dozier's value is much higher than De Leon and junk.

Quick version, last year was the only surprise year for me. I correctly thought the 2015 Twins would be a winning team (and it was so nice of the people who disagreed to constantly use base runs all season to argue the season didn't matter). I think, generally, the trades that were made were mostly fair. I thought the Twins should have gotten a second piece with Span (at the time, I thought it should have been Sammy Solis, who was coming off TJ surgery and was rated in the 15-20 range on Nat prospect lists). I liked the return on the Revere trade more even though I thought Meyer was the best piece. Injuries happen and prospects don't always pan out but the Twins farm system did a great job of growing and, I think, Brad Steil deserve credit for a lot of it. While Buxton was supposed to be a stud, the Twins got some nice prospects out of later round picks and low level international signings that really took off after Steil. The farm system isn't good just b/c of high draft position (although that helped). My two biggest problems with the rebuild - and I don't know where the blame goes or even if blame goes anywhere - is that, with the exception of Sano and Arcia, nearly every young hitter has had a real hard time adjusting to ML pitching. I'm not sure if they were brought up too soon or if it's the natural difficulty of the AAA to majors jump but it does seem like our hitters are caught by surprise by *something* at the ML level. Now, maybe this happens everywhere but Hicks' constant struggles bugged me. The other problem is that something ain't right with our ML veteran pitchers. Yes, having guys like Nolasco and Milone and Santiago and Worley sucks but they all under-performed, even by their standards. And they did this through different managers and pitching coaches. Was it pitch framing? Horrible defense? The cement drying? I have no idea but even in 2015, you could see the cracks. And I'm honestly not sure if the Ryan regime understood that or just thought it was bad luck. I do hope Falvey looks at this institutional failure more. Surprisingly, I think the rookie pitchers played more like they were expected to. As to FA, I generally don't think we should sign a big FA until you're ready to win. I thought, after 2015, the Twins could have added a FA SP but they also had a bunch of young arms that could be blocked. In retrospect, they should have done something there. (But that also brings into play the Pohlad checkbood, which isn't always reliable).

Yes, everyone who disagrees with your view of the trade thinks the Twins are going to use 'magic'. You have yet to find a comparable trade to Dozier (in your view). You have yet to even find one but you keep coming back to this myth that De Leon was close to Dozier's trade value. It's kind of insulting how much you refuse to listen to other people - and, frankly, insult other people. You've made no attempt to understand other people's views and you continually misinterpret them to make points that don't fit. To summarize, based on trades made in the last few years, a team that trades off a package comparable to Dozier should expect to receive two top 100 prospects + a couple lottery ticket pieces. The Twins made the right decision to not trade Dozier yet you have continuously labeled the Twins as making decisions based out of fear. It gets annoying. Your song has been played.

Molitor terrifies me. The pitching I can see ways around. Berrios gets good, Santana continues to be a solid ML pitcher that he's been for 10 years, Gibson pitches like 2014-2015 Gibson, Santiago pitches more like he did after he stopped listening to our coaching staff, May gets a real shot in the rotation, Hughes arm is fixed, Mejia is a solid back-end lefty, one of our AA arms breaks out for a quick promotion, one of our journeymen signings works out, we sign Hammel etc. Pitch framing is a real thing that improves the staff, the defense isn't the disaster it was last year, esp in the OF, and just natural positive regression. Not all of those things will happen but some will. But you can see where the staff might not be the disaster it was last year esp if they don't give those starts to Duffey and Albers et al. But Molitor? Man. He didn't seem to know what role to put players in, he didn't seem to be a player's manager at all, I think the players hated playing for him. I don't think he's particularly good for young guys who are struggling, for all the bitching about Gardy, Molitor used the media to attack players a lot more, he didn't stick up for his players early in the season, Sano's showboating seems to irritate him but he's ok with Rosario's showboating. I think Molitor can really **** this team up. And the fact that the FO put their own coach in the dugout suggests, to me, that they agree.

Well, I think after the 2012 season is probably when they honestly started rebuilding. The 2011 team was decimated by injuries but a lot of the core of the 2010 team was still there. You had Mauer in his prime, Morneau was supposed to be fine after 1.5 off from concussions, Hammer could replace Cuddy and Span and Revere were good young OFers. Liriano can't be as bad again. Let's see what happens if everyone's healthy. And it didn't work and Ryan started trading off all the vets. As for what we should expect, I think it's basically in place now. The offensive core is there and the Twins will start winning when the young guys get good. I would guess that they'll be in the 75 win range this year and make a big improvement next year. The bullpen is crap and I sure hope the FO does something about it but Berrios should be what everyone was hoping De Leon would be. Santana, Gibson and Santiago are experienced vets who shouldn't be as bad (as a group). May might be put back in the rotation and Duffey taken out. And Molitor has a coach in the dug out to make sure he doesn't **** up as much.

Well, I agree that the Twins need pitching but what they need is ace pitching. They just graduated Berrios who was a top pitching prospect who is probably a 2/3 at best. And the Twins will have in AA or AAA four pitchers who have been top 100 prospects on some list (Gonsalves, Mejia, Stewart and Jay). So they do have high level pitching prospects. But all of those guy project as #3 or less and are on the list for high floors or solid command/control or 'know how to pitch.' They don't have another Berrios in the system and they don't have a Bundy/Gioltio type at all. If Dozier can get us one of those, great. But De Leon wasn't one of those. And before someone says look at this ranking or that, most rankings that have him high have it because his proximity to the majors + a belief in a strong floor. Almost no one puts his stuff on the level of a Gioltio or Harvey et al.