gunnarthor

Every year we pretend that this is the year the Pohlads spend money. It never happens. Never. It doesn't matter who the GM is. The Twins have been top half in payroll twice in the last 25 years - 09 and 10, when they fleeced the tax payers into paying for Target Field. Usually they are in the bottom third. The Twins are already at about 71m in payroll, assuming they re-sign most arb guys. They were at about 130m in payroll at start of the season last year although it was pro-rated to about 115 by the end of the season due to trades and insurance. The Twins are still on the hook for Molitor's salary as well as some of Hughes. Those two are nearly 10m combined. The Twins underachieved last year and attendance fell below 2m so revenue is going to be down in comparison. I think it's a fantasy to expect payroll to increase over 130 and would expect payroll to go down. I'd bet it's closer to 115 than 130 on April 1st. The Twins will do what they always do. Sign a few middle tier guys and hope that they get an overachiever like Santana. They'll throw some money into reliever arms and hope something sticks. If the Twins are going to be good, they'll need the core of Buxton, Sano, Rosario, Berrios to make major strides forward. They can also look into trades, since they have a few tradeable assets (and maybe another comp pick they can trade?).

I'm not recommending anything but here's an article about some nice dividend stocks to own. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/9-best-dividend-stocks-buy-202745921.html A few of them I do own and a few others are obvious "safe" stocks. Some are a bit riskier.

I think the manager has to be able to relate to the players and that probably requires him to understand their backgrounds. Molly was baseball smart and he managed every game as a must win, blowing out his pen in the process and not given enough rope to the young guys.

He's a cog, not a difference maker. Solid player but expendable, especially with Kiriloff coming up. I'd consider trading him and let Cave/Wade hold the corner down until Kiriloff but if they don't get a great offer, we could do worse than letting him play for us.

ROKU is taking a hit, down into the 50s. Anyone have any insight on it? We kicked the tires on it a few months ago but passed and saw it jump. Might jump in now.

We could trade Kepler or Rosario because that's a position of depth for us and, frankly, the Pohlad's aren't gong to pay to keep the nucleus around. Kepler will be 26 next year, Rosario 27 and both are entering their arbitration years. Notice I also said, "depending on the return" for them. I didn't suggest giving Rosario away. I like him a lot and am also willing to let him try third base. He's probably our strongest trade chip - his bat has been good for a couple years now and the defensive metrics decided to like him this year, most likely b/c Buxton wasn't in center rather than any actual change to his game. I'm also ok if the Twins don't move those two. But they should at least see what the market is for them.

Flip a coin between the two.

In all seriousness, I think the Twins should consider trading either Kepler or Rosario, depending on the return. Wade and Cave could hold down a corner until Kiriloff is ready to come up and the new piece could help us in areas where we are weaker than OF depth. I haven't followed the Rays nearly enough this year to know but they have 4 MIers on their roster that put up some nice seasons with the bat in varying number of at-bats (Wendell 118 OPS+, Adames 109, Robertson 122, Lowe 112). I'm not sure if those four are even all still with the Rays, for that matter. But the Rays were interested in Kepler last year and might find a spot for him. But even if it's not the Rays, moving OF depth for IF help seems to make sense, unless the Twins are ready to go with a Gordon/Polanco MI out of the gate.

A solid off-season plan: 1) Trade Kepler 2) Sign Harper and Machado 3) Win

Wow, what a day to be busy. I think this was a very good move by the FO that had to be done.

I think the failure is pretty clearly on the ML side of it though.

I don't think that's right. They were in the playoff hunt in 2015, down to the last series of the season. They had a very young nucleus of players and they carpet bombed 2016. They were in the playoffs last season. They should have at least expected .500 this year. Yeah, a lot of stuff went wrong this year but we shouldn't be happy with 78 wins. We should have expected this team to push Cleveland, which really wan't that good this year. Instead we got a bunch of unwatchable baseball for most of the year.

Yep. The Red Sox have actually had quite a few blunders themselves. If you look at mlbpipeline's list of top 100 guys, it included Allen Webster, Henry Owens, Barnes, Ranaudo, Cecchini, Ball, Swihart etc. Every single team misses. When you have additional resources - like $ - it helps cover those mistakes. Henry Owen and Allen Webster didn't turn into aces but they could go out and get Price and Sale instead so those mistakes don't hurt. Although the Red Sox do deserve credit for Betts, a 5th round pick, becoming Mike Trout. Wowza.

That was a nice send off for Mauer.

I listed the age the guys made their significant ML appearance - I ignored Polanco's cup of coffee at 20, for instance. Buxton played in 46 games at 21. Sano came in third in ROY voting at 22. Rosario came in 6th at 23. Kepler played in 113 games at 23. Berrios made 14 starts at 22, etc. It's not misleading at all. Second, Aaron Judge debuted at 25, Sanchez and Andujar at 23. Torres at 21. So that's not really different. Lastly, yeah, the Yankees and Red Sox are better. Frankly, this argument has been boring for twenty plus years. Let the Twins spend a billion dollars on payroll over a five year period and see how that affects the team's ability to be competitive. It's ridiculous to say that because Servino signed for 225k, the Yankees and Twins were on the same level. The Yankees and Red Sox simply have more resources than the Twins and have used those resources smartly. For instance, the Red Sox got 2+ WAR from 10 players this year and they drafted/international signed only 4 of them (Betts, Bogarts, Bradley and Bennintendi). (Twins only had 6 such players but 5 were home grown. None had the season that Betts had although Berrios would have tied for second and Gibson tied for third). Having three former Cy Young starting pitchers on your roster and paying 100m to JD Martinez probably helps a team win 100 games. Give the Twins the resources that let the Red Sox do that - and they did that with massive payrolls over a period of years - and then the comparison works. The Twins shouldn't be rebuilding. They were playoff competitive in two of the last four years but have had two "total system failures" in between. That's on the ML staff, not the development team. The FO has to figure out why the ML team is f'ing up but I think the pipeline people have done fine. They've had failures but they've had successes in all fields - pitchers/position players, early round/later round, big money signings/low value signings - and have pushed the guys multiple levels with regularity. Most of the problems are on Molitor and his staff. I don't know if they can fix it and would rather the FO found a new team to work on it.

No, the Twins were relatively dark horses on Jay and most (except Callis) had him getting picked by the White Sox, who would turn him into Chris Sale 2.0. The Twins were linked to a lot of players, including Daz Cameron (who I wanted), Tyler Stephenson (who nobody wanted) and a few of the HS pitchers. Jay was mostly surprising, especially in the lead up to the draft. And when the drafted him, they drafted him as a starter. It wasn't a relief pitcher strategy. In fact, the 2015 draft was mostly a position player draft - although they did take a college reliever in the 5th round.

I'm not overly concerned about Garver. Look at the promotions of the guys in the minors since Steil took over. They are pushed. Just a few of the ages of guys when the made the majors since 2012. 21 - Buxton 22 - Sano, Polanco, Berrios, 23 - Rosario, Kepler, Hicks, Littel, Gonsalves, Stewart, Romero Sure, they haven't pushed everyone as hard - Gordon for example - and injuries affected others (Jay and Burdi) but generally, the development team has pushed the guys. Kiriloff misses a year and immediately starts a level above where he left off and gets a mid-season promotion. Most of our best prospects get mid-season promotions and/or start at higher levels than others. Lewis, for example, is at higher level already than Greene and Gore and the same level as college pick McCay. Sano has already been an all-star and Buxton has already put down a 5 WAR season with MVP votes. Berrios and Rosario have played at or near all-star levels. I think the development team is doing fine. There is something wrong at the ML level that needs to get fixed to address why Kepler has plateaued and Sano regressed etc.

I think there's a lot of stuff to complain about the FO but I'm not sure we should say they are conservative in rushing minor league players. Frankly, that's been a false narrative since Steil took over. The Twins have pushed a lot of young guys up the system. I think the development guys are doing a pretty decent job, frankly. It's the ML side that needs to be fixed.

I made this comment a few weeks ago but Stewart's stuff is better than Slowey or Blackburn's stuff. But they both knew how to pitch with their stuff and both had much better command/control. Stewart's ceiling is better than both of them although I'm not sure he can reach it but I hope he does.

So if the Twins had drafted the college players, here's what they would've nabbed (based on the best college player after their real pick): 2012 - C Zunino or P Appel. (Appel was considered the best college player by far, Zunino went #3) 2013 - 3B Colin Moran 2014 - P Aaron Nola 2015 - P Tyler Jay 2016 - C Matt Thasis (although we picked 16th so maybe we could nab a HS bat at that point?) 2017 - P Brenden McCay (although $ played a big part in the selection here and later in the draft) 2018 - OF Larnich The obvious upgrade is Nola over Gordon although Nola was not favored when discussing the draft at the time. Would still rather have Buxton over Zunino or Appel. McCay wasn't even my favorite college arm (I wanted Wright) so I'd rather have Lewis. Thasis seems decent and close to the majors. Kohl Stewart or Colin Moran? On a side note, it's interesting looking back at the drafts and remembering some of the names. I really liked Alex Jackson and I remember rooting for some scenario where Kolak falls to us. Shows what I know.

I think Stewart is unfinished and I think Jay won't be a Twin much longer.

He's not ready yet. No reason to burn away three years of control while his bat waits to catch up.

I think pitching is a smaller concern, which is a bit shocking. But Gibson, Berrios and Odorizzi are all solid enough and we have Romero coming up and a bunch of arms behind that. I'd be ok adding another top arm, of course, but I'd rather the FO focus on improving the lineup.

They need talent. Only three guys - Buxton, Sano and Rosario - have all-star or better ceilings right now and Buxton and Sano have big question marks. Kepler and Polanco can be serviceable starters in the MI and RF but they're just complementary pieces right now. After that, the Twins have some big holes. C- Garver/Castro - ugh, but probably passable in today's MLB 1B - Sano 2B - ? SS - Polanco 3B - ? LF - Rosario CF - Buxton RF - Kepler DH - ? If we're dreaming, Manny Machado is the perfect fit for us (and every other team). But realistically, the FO is going to have to fix the line-up substantially. I like Cave as a 4th OFer but I'd be ok if we moved Kepler and plugged him into RF until Kiriloff was up. But the Twins can't have a bunch of black holes in the lineup again. They need some professional hitters. I'm not sure what's out there though. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/2018-19-mlb-free-agents.html

Buxton's handling early in the season and Rosario's injury last night are pretty jarring. Those are two pretty important guys. I have no idea what the answer is - obviously, the guys want to play and might say "I'm good enough" and the manager believes them. But when the injury is obviously affecting their performance, like Buxton's foot, I think we can pass blame from the player to Molitor or up.