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gunnarthor

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Everything posted by gunnarthor

  1. gunnarthor
    I'm a little surprised we gave this guy a 40 man spot but, ok. I would like to see us start moving some of our AAA pitchers up and see what they can do. I expect Ryan will get a shot this year after the Olympics. Probably Winder should as well.
  2. gunnarthor
    I think that's a fair question but you also have to trust your plan, such as it is. Larnach was expected to be a cornerstone bat for the Twins. He's 24. The Twins just have to hope he makes the adjustments to become a Cuddyer-like player. I don't think they should yank him in and out of the lineup. Let him play.
  3. gunnarthor
    And this FO should suffer the same fate.
  4. gunnarthor
    You know, I think this is a very fair question. My opinion is that most of the success of 2019 goes to the previous regime, not this one. The players who were acquired and developed by the prior regime accounted for 28 WAR for the 2019 season. Players acquired from this FO only acquired 15 WAR.* That nucleus of Buxton, Berrios, Sano, Kepler, Polanco, etc was going to win no matter who the FO or manager was. The new FO's main job was to supplement that team and keep that window of contention open longer. I don't think they managed that. Part of this just goes to what you expected from that core, how much a system affects player development in the majors v. minors. Lastly, I've pointed out several things that this FO did right. I liked both the Cruz and Donaldson signings. The Berrios trade looks great. The Odo trade was solid and Larnich and Jeffers look like solid MLers. It doesn't have to be all or none but at this point, the FO has had more misses - and, maybe more importantly, failed to have a concrete plan - that makes me think that they are't doing well. * I'm only looking at players who acquired at least 1 WAR.
  5. gunnarthor
    They inherited a top 10 farm system and a team full of young former top 100 prospects. They had the #1 pick and a supplemental first. Three picks in the top 37! And ownership who said "this time we mean it when we want to increase payroll"* They didn't develop the players, didn't properly value their own internal talent, didn't properly value other teams players. Entering this year, their best pitching prospect was still acquired by the previous regime. Entering this year, their best hitting prospect was still acquired by the previous regime. We still don't have that promised pitching pipeline. But posters are still blaming Ryan? Good grief. *Pohlads suck, common problem for all of our front offices.
  6. gunnarthor
    The effect for Twins fans who watched the team was that the team was utterly playing below expectations, that nothing worked. It was a system failure. Again. The six game winning streak at the end of the season, after it was all done and we just ruined our draft position, was icing on the cake we had to sit through. Your opinion may be different. I don't care. This FO inherited a great system and a great nucleus, threw the white flag on a playoff team in 2017, mucked everything up in 2018 (including getting taken in several trades), gave us one great season (2019) and another TSF this season. They've relied too much on the Dobnaks, Smeltzers, Jaxs of the world that makes me think they have no idea on how to build starting pitching - although that might be Falvey's end game. Maybe he just sees a bunch of 5 pitcher games as the future of baseball.
  7. gunnarthor
    Yeah, right now it doesn't look like the Twins have another Berrios, let alone future ace, in their system. I like Woods-Richardson, Ryan, Balazovic and Winder. Solid, real prospects. But I wish we had a Mize or Giolito in the system.
  8. gunnarthor
    2018. If you click the link, you'd see posts from TD complaining about the TSF season. The six game winning streak against Chicago at the end of the season added a little polish to the turd of the season.
  9. gunnarthor
    The Twins have some pop in the minors. How good is Steer's defense? Nice to see Martin hit a walk-off. That must have felt good.
  10. gunnarthor
    I think it's also fair to point out that this FO has already had two "total system failure" seasons. I dunno. I hope they have a plan but I'm worried that the plan is something like, "Maeda is our ace, build from there."
  11. gunnarthor
    They can't trade Buxton and they shouldn't trade Donaldson. I'd listen on offers for the other two. I think we have enough corner depth to trade Kepler if it improves our pitching for 2022 and beyond. Rogers is greatly overrated and we should trade him ASAP. I think we have enough offensive pieces to have a good offense next year but the pitching staff is a disaster. They need to figure out something and if that means parting with Kepler, fine.
  12. gunnarthor
    I think you brought up a good point. They've drafted a lot and Larnich and Jeffers were good picks and it's too early to give up on the others BUT they've missed a lot and they've drafted a lot of DH/1B/Mashers. It's ok to have too much depth if they will move that depth but we see that they didn't and we lose guys like Baddoo and Wade (not trying to restart that discussion). I just can't figure out this FO's thinking.
  13. gunnarthor
    I'm going to share an older article from John Sickels about defining an ace, a #2, #3, etc. There have been several of these type of articles over the years from various sources but all of them are pretty much in agreement, although this talks more about prospects then established pitchers. And ML pitchers can pitch well above their label. (Radke and Buerhle are two classic examples) https://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/8/7/3226335/defining-1-2-3-4-5-starters Essentially, Maeda and Big Mike aren't #2. They are backend starters at this point. Mike will end the season with a WAR of around 1, Maeda will be less than that. Our best (arguably) pitching prospect, Balazovic, grades out as a future 3 or 4 type.
  14. gunnarthor
    Generally, low although I'm willing to admit that "FO" is a bit vague. I have almost no confidence in Levine but I'm not as sure about Falvey. I'm not quite as diplomatic as Mike is. This FO simply failed in their first go around and I don't think we need too much longer to pull the plug. I'm not sure we need to go over every move over five years but the bad overwhelms the good, in my opinion. The Twins have a -3.5 WAR from their pitching staff this year. Nearly 8 WAR worse than the second worst team. That's insane. And it'll probably be a lot worse by the end of the season.
  15. gunnarthor
    That's not quite fair, though. Odorizzi's 2019 was his best (or tied for best) 3.3 WAR season. But 2018 was his second worst full-season (although this season probably will push it to third). Pineda's best seasons, by bWAR, were 2014 and 2011. His 2019 tied 2011 (2.2 WAR) but this season is on pace to be his worst fullseason, or close to it. Maeda is a bit more complicated b/c his best season was COVID shortened and I argued in the offseason that it wasn't really a true reflection of his ability. But, even if we give him full credit for 2020, his 2021 will easily be his worst season ever.
  16. gunnarthor
    Three weeks ago, I was kicking around buying AMD at 87 and decided not to. Dang it.
  17. gunnarthor
    I'm sure his starting ask was, at a minimum, a Wheeler-type deal. 5/118 (23.5).
  18. gunnarthor
    Yeah, I suppose that's true of pretty much every post on TD. On the other hand, I'm fairly confident the Twins won't sign a top end pitcher at market rate.
  19. gunnarthor
    I think the Twins should get two of Guasman, Rodon, Ray, Thor, Stroman. But that they didn't come close to extending Berrios suggests they won't pay market rate for a top end pitcher. I hope I'm wrong but the Twins way looks to be 5 inning starters, lots of bullpen arms, and AAAA arms with options to St Paul to help eat innings.
  20. gunnarthor
    The FO manipulated his service time, they leaked information about Buxton not signing, and then they tried to trade him. So, yeah, they might not expect him to be here much longer. I'd rather lose this FO than Buxton but others may disagree.
  21. gunnarthor
    I like the Arraez comparison and I think it's a good one, although Martin's bat will be a lot better in the long run. I'm not really worried about him, Toronto is pretty aggressive with their prospects. Most teams probably wouldn't have dropped him in AA to start his career so it made sense that he struggled a bit. He's going to be really good.
  22. gunnarthor
    I'm not quite as optimistic as others, mostly because I just don't see the pitching coming around. I think we have the pieces to keep a pretty strong offense around but it looks like we have a bunch of backend/AAAA arms. I'm done with the Dobnaks, Jaxs, Smeltzers. Woods-Richardson might become as good as Berrios, although that's unlikely. But it also seems that the Twins have changed their pitching philosophy so we need a pitching staff where we need to have a bunch of effective bullpen arms that we don't really have to go along with a the five inning starter.
  23. gunnarthor
    I agree. I like Ober. Darn nice return for a 12th round pick. But it's sad that this is what this season has come to. I want a playoff rotation. I want my promised pitching pipeline. It's sad that this is what we're left with.
  24. gunnarthor
    Ahh, I misread things, I guess.
  25. gunnarthor
    Who? Donaldson is on a 3-4 WAR pace despite his injuries.
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