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USAFChief

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Everything posted by USAFChief

  1. I'd like to see Santana at SS, Eddie as the futility infielder, at which point I would hope two spots on the next good Twins team are filled.
  2. I don't mean to sidetrack this thread, but all OBP is not equal, IMO. A single is worth more than a walk, because it can advance base runners more than one base, for one thing. And, of course, not all hits are singles...some are doubles, triples and home runs. As this relates to Hicks, I think it's doubtful he can maintain a .340 OBP unless he can hit for a higher average. Major League pitchers are too good to keep walking guys who can't hit. My personal preference would be to give Hicks one more shot at CF out of spring training, and hopefully settle the issue, with Buxton somewhere on the horizon to either move Hicks to LF or 4th OFer, or out of the organization. He might fail (as might Buxton) but at least you could feel fairly confident at that point about giving up on Hicks.
  3. As I recall it, Reed's control was so shaky the two guys that he hit were both in the on deck circle. Of course, my memory ain't what it used to be, so I can't swear to that.
  4. A few quick thoughts: Buxton is really fast. He also has a pretty good arm. I haven't been a big fan of Rosario...but based on three games anyway...he can hit. He hit the ball hard in almost every AB we saw.
  5. Chiming in...what a delightful night in the desert....absolutely perfect weather, a couple hundredfans in aattendance, seats wherever you want, and Jones hitting 99 on the stadium gun. I also should note Ash's son is a remarkable young man...bright, funny, warm and engaging, and he keeps score! He obviously takes after his mother.
  6. if I owned that company, I'd focus some attention on the managers who are telling me their division Is "top 5 in the industry" when they keep posting red numbers year after year.
  7. I don't think you can argue either Sano or Buxton will, or should be up on opening day 2015 unless you are (were) willing to say they should have been up opening day 2014. Both are a year older, but otherwise in essentially the exact same position they were a year ago, development wise. Buxton got in a few games, Sano none. Both will have the opportunity to get in a few games before spring training, hopefully. They're both where they were a year ago. They weren't making the opening day roster last spring...I don't see how that's changed much, if at all.
  8. I don't know how to say this without sounding confrontational, so I'll just say it... I think if you substituted "2013" for every "2014'" and "2015" for every "2014," your post could have been written last October, and probably was, just not by you. "Wait until 2014, when Meyer/Mays/Buxton/Sano/Rosario/pickyournamehere are up and producing...then go get what you need." I'd rather the team goes and gets some of what they need, and hope the minor leagues can supply even more, rather than the other way around. To me that's the less risky strategy. YMMV of course.
  9. Mauer, .860 career OPS (133 OPS+) Kemp, .845 career OPS (128 (OPS+) 1.5 yrs younger than Mauer, without the injury history. Kemp is overpaid, but not by an "insane" amount, at least not by MLB standards. There's a very reasonable chance he ages well and is an above average big league left fielder through the end of that contract. I wouldn't give up much for him, but at the cost of only money, he fills a need for half a decade. I think we all agree the Twins can spend more. What's the goal here...win actual MLB games, or win the mythical "most wins per dollar spent" baseball prospectus championship? I will agree with you on one thing though...the Twins won't even consider a move like that. I guess my argument is, I'd like to see the Twins change the universe they operate in.
  10. I got a lot of flack on other forums a few years ago for thinking the Twins should have moved Mauer out from behind the plate years ago. Probably before he even made the big leagues. Now they are paying the price for a physical decline that might not be correctable, as well as losing a lot of time on the field in the interim. I still think it was a mistake having him catch, WAR be damned.
  11. Perhaps even in LaLaLand there are salary concerns...if they want to pursue Scherzer, having most of Kemps salary off the books might be attractive. I like the idea of Kemp, but only if its costs little except money.
  12. Rumor has it Ashburyjohn and Chief will be in attendance this Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, each with a son in tow. Look for the two old guys...that'll be the two sons.
  13. Honest questions: earlier in this thread you said BP's model showed 40 runs. Is that the "scaled back" number? If that's a scaled back estimate, why should I believe it's now correct, when the same claims would have been made last year, only with a larger number of runs saved? They had it wrong before, but now they have it right? As for what 2 strikes per game is worth, I don't know. Assuming 2 strikes per game is accurate, which is not in evidence by the way, I would say not a lot. Not 40 runs, for sure, IMO. That doesn't pass the smell test, for me at least. I've been wrong before, I could be wrong here. But something like this can't be proven, one way or the other, so I will just have to go with my sense of what's probable.
  14. I am a sceptic about pitch framing, so take that into account. Disclaimer posted. An extra 2 strikes a game...I guess that's possible. Although my hunch is further research down the line will call that into question, much like many of the writers who treated defensive metrics as gospel a few years ago are backing off that stance now. But 40 runs per year? I don't think that's possible.
  15. I agree there's a place for both. Baseball is hard to predict. I will say it won't bother me if they shift the balance a bit more towards the empirical side though. Here's hoping the next manager is really good at both.
  16. It's not over yet. But you have a solid lead.
  17. I see the point as: a top minor league system is nice, but one reason it's a bit misleading to put too much stock in it is some of the comparisons should be to young players already contributing at the major league level, rather than just to other minor leaguers. The goal is to get these guys to the big leagues, have them produce, and win games. Having a 24 yr old put up nice numbers in Rochester doesn't win any MLB games...he should be compared to a similar 24 yr old producing in the majors.
  18. I strongly prefer someone from outside the org. But if it does come down to these two, I agree with Nick. Look forward, not back, and go with DM.
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