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USAFChief

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Everything posted by USAFChief

  1. USAFChief
    I’m hopeful a RH hitting fourth OFer is a winter addition, and Werth seems like a decent gamble for a mild rebound, enough to be very helpful if used properly. Lackey, on the other hand, seems poised to crater, rather than rebound. Hard pass.
  2. USAFChief
    I'd say that DURING a rebuild, you can afford to waste a 40 man spot or three on a whim, hoping to strike gold with a hit that you can flip in a midseason trade. When you're trying to win, trying to get by on the cheap isn't a very good gamble.
  3. USAFChief
    And if my old home German isn’t wrong, “Craig” means “rummage through the scrap heap and end up”.
  4. USAFChief
    yes.
  5. USAFChief
    Wouldn’t adding to the top over the winter and hoping May or Romero prove worthy of being added during the season be a plan much more likely to succeed?
  6. USAFChief
    I'll believe 1 isn't a myth when it's proven not to be. 2 shouldn't be put forth as a myth...the Twins need better pitchers than they've assembled. You do that by adding to the top, not the bottom.
  7. USAFChief
    KirbyDome: I think you're completely ignoring the value of 2 seasons of Brian Dozier. The point is to win baseball games. Current games count just as much as future ones, at least. In fact, in my opinion, winning current games is about all you can try to do. Thinking you can plan for five years down the road in MLB is wishful thinking, IMO.
  8. USAFChief
    It's interesting you bring up KC. They had a two decade period of irrelevance precisely because they always followed your advice...they spent current assets on long term hopes. They traded away every good player they had for years, always had "great" minor league systems, and watched the postseason year after year. Only when they traded some of the future for some of today did they make a run. A run we, as Twins fans, should be quite envious of...they got to two WS and brought home one trophy.
  9. USAFChief
    Amory IS in NE MS, I believe. So there's that.
  10. USAFChief
    Personally, I'm not sold on Polanco, on either side of the ball. That seems like an obvious place ripe for improvement, but I doubt the Twins will look for a SS this winter. Dozier is steady, but range and arm seem to get a little weaker every year. He's not going anywhere in 2018 though. Sano obviously will play third the majority of the time so I don't see much room for improvement there, either. Mauer' good, but he's not going to get better. The OF can't get much better, I don't think. So I think at this point you have to work on the pitching, not the backups, if you want to significantly reduce runs allowed again. I just don't see how you realistically improve the defense much.
  11. USAFChief
    Certainly health could diminish a players defensive ability. Age, too. However, Field conditions are a non factor, and in any case are unrelated to defensive ability. So is positioning....that might mean fewer or more balls fielded but that's scouting, not defensive ability. Who pitches doesn't make someone a better or worse defender, nor does the other team.
  12. USAFChief
    I read this a lot, but I question it. Defensive ability should be pretty stable, IMO. At least way more stable than 1 yr of hitting or pitching results. It's just another reason I'm very skeptical about current publicly available defensive metrics. I might be proven wrong someday, of course.
  13. USAFChief
    http://www.twincities.com/2010/02/08/twins-owner-jim-pohlad-not-in-on-mauer-talks-but-revenue-boost-should-help-team-sign-star/ http://www.startribune.com/pohlad-twins-remain-opposed-to-giving-deferred-money/83817132/?numToShow=10 http://m.mlb.com/news/article/2398412//
  14. USAFChief
    I'm not discussing the possibility of injury. Every pitcher is an injury risk. I'm talking "bust." That's the "floor" for any minor league pitcher. Getting hitters out in the minor leagues does not guarantee a successful major league career, even with perfect health. My remark is in response to a statement that JDL's floor is "4/5 starter." I do not agree. Part of why you can trade for minor leaguers in the first place is that "might never pan out" is part of the equation. And part of why a trade of JDL for Dozier would have been, IMO, a poor gamble last winter. You can't get one decent (not great) prospect for an established above average big league player. You'll lose that trade a very high percentage of the time. I imagine DeLeon will get major league starts in the future, if only because every team needs pitching, and TB has invested a lot in him. But that does not make him a "4/5 starter." It just means he will be given chances he won't have to earn, and might not deserve.
  15. USAFChief
    You haven't addressed a single word in the post you quoted.
  16. USAFChief
    DeLeon's floor is not "Back end starter." His floor is "bust," like virtually every minor leaguer.
  17. USAFChief
    To each his own. But if part of your objection is thinking a $140m payroll in 2018 would mean the Pohlad family will lose money, I believe you're mistaken. Just for starters, the value of their asset has gone from $44m to over $1B.
  18. USAFChief
    Or we could look at Dave Roberts, manager of the team with the best regular season record. Kenley Jansen is his best reliever. He got into 65 games, and finished 57 of them. It would be interesting to see what Franconia would have done with Miller if he lost Allen. I don't think closers are overrated as much as deep and strong bullpens are underrated.
  19. USAFChief
    Even if we accept the figures in the handbook, why shouldn't they spend the money in 2018 that they didn't spend in 2017, and 2016? They just get to bank that, without anyone questioning it? They can spend whatever they chose to spend. And they could certainly add $30m in 18 and not lose money, particularly if you average over the past several years.
  20. USAFChief
    They would view themSELVES as having failed. The point isn't to be the win per dollar spent champ, he third wins champ, the TeamWithTheMostWAR. The WeAlmostWonTeam. The point is to win the WS.
  21. USAFChief
    Actually, plenty of people say exactly that. They just couch it in terms like "can't afford to sign the best free agents," "don't trade away prospects," and "our deep minor league system will supply what we need." "That's what Falvine where hired for, to turn magic beans onto ace starters, like Cleveland!" If those are your positions, you're saying "just find the next Arrieta." For proof, I offer the "hunt for an ace" thread.
  22. USAFChief
    I would probably try to lock up Berrios, but there's compelling reasons not to, as well. Tough call, IMO.
  23. USAFChief
    Or even Chatwood in addition to a legitimate top of the rotation starter. But as the centerpiece of a rotation fix? Fail.
  24. USAFChief
    Concur. I do not agree with the OP's position that A-list FA pitchers are "a pipe dream" for the Twins. And to me, the risk associated with signing mid tier FAs is greater than the risk associated with signing top-of-the-line FAs. A Darvish might get hurt, but he will help the team win if he doesn't. A Chatwood might get hurt, and he also might not help the team win if he doesn't.
  25. USAFChief
    Concur.
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