USAFChief

That's the name the immediately came to my mind. He was as steady as a SS can be in 1991. Always made the play needed to be made, always in the right spot.

Unfortunately, while it's certainly the smallest of small sample sizes, I left Phoenix after the weekend thoroughly unimpressed with the Twins AFL contingent. None of them looked ready to contribute to the Twins any time soon, to me.

Another rude fan laughed at the "you had ONE JOB" comment. Wait, that was me.

It’s rather...illogical, since you claim to argue from logic...to state there can be varying levels of certainty in a debate, but then dismiss another’s claim because there’s “no evidence” for that position. And then spend paragraphs dismissing or refuting the very evidence you claim isn’t there. Illogical to claim you can’t use results to argue process, then spend paragraphs showing how trading Kintzler didn’t have any actual effect on results. Illogical to make claims about Otani and international FA money...which weren’t made at the time of the trade. And also haven’t proven to be worth a penny yet, BTW. The Twins were in contention for a postseason spot for EVERY single day of the 2017 season. Every. Single. Day. Including around the deadline. And speaking of which....Fangraphs’ playoff odds? As a logical argument point?? Really??? Those numbers are concocted out of thin air. They’re based on nothing. They are virtually meaningless. They are a guess, just like your guess, mine, and the guy you’re dismissing’s guess. They HAD NO business trading away pitching at the deadline. None. In fact, They should have added pitching. They were a contending team in need of pitching. Still are, BTW. That’s every bit as logical as your position...and my opinion (held at the time) is the one borne out by events. Not yours. To argue otherwise is, well, it’s illogical.

A good RH bat is a priority for the Twins this off-season, IMO. Santana would be a fantastic pickup. I could live with betting on Bautista too. There are no internal candidates likely to help, IMO.

Minimal experience? Kepler has 3000 professional PAs. Kepler will be 25 next year, BTW.

Why? Serious question. This is a common sentiment, but why? What’s the advantage? Teams carry four outfielders anyway, why not try to maximize production rather than keep trying to force a player to be good at something he’s not good at, and likely will never be as good at as a different player. You can’t platoon everywhere, or even at more than a couple positions any more, but you CAN get cheap, increased production that way. Let a RH hitter get most of Kepler’s PAs, and a few of Rosario’s, vs LH pitching. What’s the harm?

I’m hopeful a RH hitting fourth OFer is a winter addition, and Werth seems like a decent gamble for a mild rebound, enough to be very helpful if used properly. Lackey, on the other hand, seems poised to crater, rather than rebound. Hard pass.

I'd say that DURING a rebuild, you can afford to waste a 40 man spot or three on a whim, hoping to strike gold with a hit that you can flip in a midseason trade. When you're trying to win, trying to get by on the cheap isn't a very good gamble.

And if my old home German isn’t wrong, “Craig” means “rummage through the scrap heap and end up”.

yes.

Wouldn’t adding to the top over the winter and hoping May or Romero prove worthy of being added during the season be a plan much more likely to succeed?

I'll believe 1 isn't a myth when it's proven not to be. 2 shouldn't be put forth as a myth...the Twins need better pitchers than they've assembled. You do that by adding to the top, not the bottom.

KirbyDome: I think you're completely ignoring the value of 2 seasons of Brian Dozier. The point is to win baseball games. Current games count just as much as future ones, at least. In fact, in my opinion, winning current games is about all you can try to do. Thinking you can plan for five years down the road in MLB is wishful thinking, IMO.

It's interesting you bring up KC. They had a two decade period of irrelevance precisely because they always followed your advice...they spent current assets on long term hopes. They traded away every good player they had for years, always had "great" minor league systems, and watched the postseason year after year. Only when they traded some of the future for some of today did they make a run. A run we, as Twins fans, should be quite envious of...they got to two WS and brought home one trophy.

Amory IS in NE MS, I believe. So there's that.

Personally, I'm not sold on Polanco, on either side of the ball. That seems like an obvious place ripe for improvement, but I doubt the Twins will look for a SS this winter. Dozier is steady, but range and arm seem to get a little weaker every year. He's not going anywhere in 2018 though. Sano obviously will play third the majority of the time so I don't see much room for improvement there, either. Mauer' good, but he's not going to get better. The OF can't get much better, I don't think. So I think at this point you have to work on the pitching, not the backups, if you want to significantly reduce runs allowed again. I just don't see how you realistically improve the defense much.

Certainly health could diminish a players defensive ability. Age, too. However, Field conditions are a non factor, and in any case are unrelated to defensive ability. So is positioning....that might mean fewer or more balls fielded but that's scouting, not defensive ability. Who pitches doesn't make someone a better or worse defender, nor does the other team.

I read this a lot, but I question it. Defensive ability should be pretty stable, IMO. At least way more stable than 1 yr of hitting or pitching results. It's just another reason I'm very skeptical about current publicly available defensive metrics. I might be proven wrong someday, of course.

http://www.twincities.com/2010/02/08/twins-owner-jim-pohlad-not-in-on-mauer-talks-but-revenue-boost-should-help-team-sign-star/ http://www.startribune.com/pohlad-twins-remain-opposed-to-giving-deferred-money/83817132/?numToShow=10 http://m.mlb.com/news/article/2398412//

I'm not discussing the possibility of injury. Every pitcher is an injury risk. I'm talking "bust." That's the "floor" for any minor league pitcher. Getting hitters out in the minor leagues does not guarantee a successful major league career, even with perfect health. My remark is in response to a statement that JDL's floor is "4/5 starter." I do not agree. Part of why you can trade for minor leaguers in the first place is that "might never pan out" is part of the equation. And part of why a trade of JDL for Dozier would have been, IMO, a poor gamble last winter. You can't get one decent (not great) prospect for an established above average big league player. You'll lose that trade a very high percentage of the time. I imagine DeLeon will get major league starts in the future, if only because every team needs pitching, and TB has invested a lot in him. But that does not make him a "4/5 starter." It just means he will be given chances he won't have to earn, and might not deserve.

You haven't addressed a single word in the post you quoted.

DeLeon's floor is not "Back end starter." His floor is "bust," like virtually every minor leaguer.

To each his own. But if part of your objection is thinking a $140m payroll in 2018 would mean the Pohlad family will lose money, I believe you're mistaken. Just for starters, the value of their asset has gone from $44m to over $1B.

Or we could look at Dave Roberts, manager of the team with the best regular season record. Kenley Jansen is his best reliever. He got into 65 games, and finished 57 of them. It would be interesting to see what Franconia would have done with Miller if he lost Allen. I don't think closers are overrated as much as deep and strong bullpens are underrated.