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USAFChief

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Everything posted by USAFChief

  1. USAFChief
    You have SIX major league foul balls??
  2. USAFChief
    In addition to Stirnger's post above, I'd add that it was obvious Baldelli gave Berrios every opportunity to get through the 5th. He was at 105 pitches, wasn't sharp, and leaving him out there just to get the W wasn't the right call, IMO. He was lucky to get that far, despite not having allowed a run up to the fifth.
  3. USAFChief
    We have an analytics department analyzing every little detail just to find slight advantages, for the purpose of making our team just a little bit better and using a "somewhat static" "small fluctuating" "almost permanent" slotting totally ignores any slight advantage uncovered by metrics. Perhaps the analytics department determined that the best way to approach batting order is to determine who are the most likely hitters to perform well, based on more than the past 20 PAs, and trust that over time that will play out better than trying to predict who will go 2-4 tomorrow based on who went 2-4 today.
  4. USAFChief
    That's the biggest change, and most encouraging, IYAM.
  5. USAFChief
    The contrast between Gibson pitching ahead in the count often, and pitching behind in the count often, is incredible. I also dont remember a single change up today.
  6. USAFChief
    Great work, Thieres.
  7. USAFChief
    Ooh ga chah gaOoh ga chah ga
  8. USAFChief
    Felix was Canadian, no? "Pea - eh?"
  9. USAFChief
    the manager needs to take some of the blame for Hildenberger?? Also, Hildenberger hasn't been good since a few weeks his rookie year. Decidedly below average. You dont get an accurate picture of a player when you only consider his successes.
  10. USAFChief
    I'll keep saying it. The Twins cannot survive with the current bullpen options. Taylor Rogers and hope the rest are good dodgers isnt a good plan. I trust one guy out there. And I suspect Baldelli feels the same.
  11. USAFChief
    if by bullpen you mean Taylor Rogers, then yeah. Agreed.
  12. USAFChief
    It's fun to care about winning or losing again. I still maintain the Twins will not be able to survive this pen. But good win tonight. Hopefully Garver isnt seriously hurt.
  13. USAFChief
    https://www.athleticsnation.com/2013/8/7/4590940/a-statistical-defense-sort-of-of-the-sac-bunt try this. Unfortunately, it doesn't cover bunting a runner from 2nd to 3rd with 0 out.
  14. USAFChief
    I would argue the person who posted that rather limited and incomplete article about "run expectancy" used math exactly that way. Maybe I understand math better than people that understand math.
  15. USAFChief
    There is a place for math, but in this case, the math is fuzzier then it first appears. First, the math assumes that all base/out situations are created equally. That 2nd base, no out, with a hard throwing reliever against the bottom of the order is the same as 2nd base, no out, middle of the order against somebody's tiring 5th starter. That LH/RH don't matter for pitcher or hitter. None of this is ever true. This is a case where averages obscure the truth, rather than reveal it. There's an old saying...a statistician will look at a guy with one foot in boiling water and one frozen in ice and conclude, on average, the guy must be pretty comfortable. Second, having seen these studies before, I believe the math shows that in certain situations, sac bunting actually increases the chances of scoring exactly one run, while lowering the chances of scoring multiple runs. And I agree with RB...there are situations when scoring one run is so important that I'd be more than willing to lower my chances of two or more to increase my chances of one. And third, I don't even care if Kepler bunts there. A sac bunt attempt isn't guaranteed to advance the runner either. But if the team isn't going to bunt in that situation, then the hitter absolutely, positively, has to sell out to hit the ball to the right side, to maximize his chances of advancing that runner to third. In this case, Kepler swung wildly at the first pitch, a pitch that was very "pullable," and then got beat on a pitch away, which he had little chance of pulling, and popped up weakly to the left side. That's a failure to understand the situation, IMO, not just a failure to get the job done. It's the 8th inning. Your first priority has to be "get this sucker tied up."
  16. USAFChief
    There are still times when "productive outs" really are productive. No matter how hard some people scoff at the idea. Sometimes you fail, everyone does, but that was a terrible PA by Kepler. Not just unproductive, uncompetitive.
  17. USAFChief
    why wouldn't Willians bat ahead of Buxton, especially vs a LHer?
  18. USAFChief
    the blame falls on the front office who built a pen that includes Hildenberger as a featured piece.
  19. USAFChief
    and we somehow managed to lose THREE of them. Fire Baldelli!!1!
  20. USAFChief
    Odorizzi. What. The actual. ****?
  21. USAFChief
    BTW...you're 37, no?
  22. USAFChief
    By losing their next five.
  23. USAFChief
    Where can one get a fedora like that? ... Asking for a friend.
  24. USAFChief
    Fortunately, Toronto won't have any high leverage situations this year.
  25. USAFChief
    Hel-LO.
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