I think another factor that comes into play is the number of games in which the offense struggles.
The Twins have scored 3 or fewer runs 17 times this year. It's very difficult to win consistently when you score 3 or fewer runs. They also have another 5 games scoring 4.
I can't find it, but I believe the magic number in MLB is 5. Score 5, and you'll win more often than lose. Score 4, and you'll lose more often than win.
Obviously, 3 or fewer and you're increasingly losing more than winning.
So, long story short, despite a few double digit games, the Twins offense is too consistently weak, scoring too few runs too often.
Their starting pitching has been strong enough to have them slightly above water, and leading the weakest division in MLB, but I believe the offense has to improve or the team will struggle to stay ahead of even the ALC.
And I don't really know where the consistent improvement will come from. Their lineup lacks a middle. Nobody is going to put up a 1.000 OPS.