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USAFChief

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Everything posted by USAFChief

  1. USAFChief
    Mostly. Again, over/unders are a little bit different than say, one football game. On over unders, there are 30 moving parts, so it's mostly about getting enough money on either side of 30 bets, but it's also about being somewhere close to reality. Vegas books aren't going to offer a line that is totally divorced fom reality, because doing o exposes them to smart money coming in late and killing them. If they make 5 percent on 28 or 29 teams, but lose a ton on 1 or 2, that doesn't work. So it's complicated, but I doubt they think either the Cub or Twins win totals are way out of wack. They might end up way wrong, they missed by a ton on Texas last year, for example, but they are not going to put really bad bets for the house up.
  2. USAFChief
    Same thing. It's just in Vegas, they don't take your word you'll pay up. Cash in advance. Either way, there's the loser's vig that stays with the house (or the bookie.). What most people don't understand is, Vegas (and your bookie) try very hard to avoid gambling.
  3. USAFChief
    Yup. Typically, a $1000 over/under bet will cost you $1100. (Your bet plus a 10% vig). Let's assume one person bets the over for a thousand, one bets the under, also for a thousand. Vegas has collected $2200. If you lose, they keep the $1100. If you win, you get $2100. Nice little system they got...if they can just get an even amount of money on either side, they use the losers bet to pay the winner, the winner gets his money and vig back, but Vegas keeps the vig from the loser. They are guaranteed a profit of almost 5% of the total bet on both sides, minus their overhead of course. That theory works a lot better on single events than it does on things like "over/under" team win totals, though. In theory, if Vegas can hit the sweet spot on the spread for a game, they can't lose. Even amount of money bet on both sides, it doesn't matter which team wins. Vegas gets its 5%. But, at least in theory, Vegas could lose money on EVERY team on the "over/under." Of course, in theory they could win money on every team, too. Mostly, Vegas doesn't care much for these types of bets, because they have much less control over the outcome. They are pretty good at setting the totals for these kinds of things though, which is why they offer 'em.
  4. USAFChief
    A TD over/under contest will be announced in March.
  5. USAFChief
    A tolerable deviation from good taste. Barely tolerable, though.
  6. USAFChief
    Nice. A simple TC logo...no M, or any such nonsense.
  7. USAFChief
    He might be physically past the age where he can help a team win. That's a fair question. But for me, It will be a refreshing change of pace to see someone on the Twins with a pulse. Someone who cares about winning...a lot. Sports aren't just about talent.
  8. USAFChief
    Then it might be a topic for spring 2016. Right now, Hunter is blocking nobody.
  9. USAFChief
    In last year's TD over/under contest, the Twins were at 70.5. More people took the over than the under. But none of us picked well enough to do much braggin'. Predicting baseball is hard.
  10. USAFChief
    That's a long road trip...don't try to drive it all in one stretch.
  11. USAFChief
    There's an argument to be made the strike zone is bigger than it's ever been. At the least, K's are way up.
  12. USAFChief
    Heartfelt sympathies, and heartfelt thanks for a heartfelt story. You are lucky, and so was your grandpa.
  13. USAFChief
    Joe Mauer! Not as bad as Ryan Howard!!
  14. USAFChief
    Torii Hunter and Ricky Nolasco, just to drive up traffic on TD.
  15. USAFChief
    My strong preference is not to mess with actual game play or managerial options. I would be very opposed to limiting pitching changes, or requiring pitchers to pitch to more than one hitter. Those have always been managerial decisions and should stay that way. I also believe the growth of bullpens will eventually self correct, as managers decide they can win more games with a stronger bench than another OOGY. But I would have no problem with finding ways to speed up pace of play that don't impact actual game play. A pitch clock is an easy solution, as is requiring hitters to stay in the box and hit. Find ways to limit time between innings...first pitch of every half inning should be on its way no more than ten seconds after the last TV ad ends. Find ways to prevent managers from stalling. Consider starting games earlier...6:40 instead of 7:10. Just don't change the way the actual game is played.
  16. USAFChief
    It doesnt seem to me an oblique injury in July would affect his ability to pull the ball in April, May, or June.
  17. USAFChief
    Pelf strikes me as the perfect candidate for the pen. Good fastball that might tick up a couple notches, unremarkable off speed stuff, decent control and command.
  18. USAFChief
    Some of us think it's bizarre to use WAR to judge a player. In any case, I don't think LaRoche's defense at first base is all that bad, but even if it is, isn't he going to mostly DH? Bad defense from a DH isn't all that damaging, IMO. :-)
  19. USAFChief
    Cameron says many things. I remember when he said the Twins where the 5th best organization in MLB. He said that in April, 2010. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/organizational-rankings-recap/
  20. USAFChief
    We'd have seen more of Drew Butera.
  21. USAFChief
    I agree with him...looking backward. I'd rather have had the RBI. Same way, looking backward, Id rather have W's from a starter than ERA or FIP or any other stat. RBI equal runs. W's equal, well, W's. The question is, which is a better tool to guesstimate the future. I honestly don't know, but I do believe the answer isn't as clear as proponents of either measure sometimes proclaim.
  22. USAFChief
    I think often hitting behind in the count has caught up to him. Stop giving away the first strike in so many ABs. .
  23. USAFChief
    For comparison: According to BRef, Hunter had 83 RBI from 167 PAs with RISP (259 total PAs with at least 1 runner on base). Mauer had 55 RBI fom 146 PAs with RISP (241 total PAs with at least 1 runner on base). Dozier (who had the most PAs batting second in the order, like Hunter) had 71 RBI from 196 PAs with RISP (296 total PAs with at least 1 runner on base). So I think it fair to guess Hunter might have done well with RBI as a Twin, too.
  24. USAFChief
    At the least it's an indication someone cares that things have gotten bad. Something in somewhat short supply around TF, IMO.
  25. USAFChief
    Articles like the one below suggest Hicks' preparation and professionalism have been concerning to Twins mgt: http://m.1500espn.com/pages/sportswire.php?sPL=wetmore_twins_tell_aaron_hicks_he_needs_to_be_better_prepared_to_play051514 Whether that has been related to "desire" is open to interpretation. I speak only for myself, but it sure looks to me like Hicks would benefit as a ball player if he could match Hunter's desire and work ethic. It's not a magic bullet that would fix all his problems, but I think it's fair to think that it might be beneficial.
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