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USAFChief

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Everything posted by USAFChief

  1. USAFChief
    Your honor, the prosecution will stipulate to the fact the proponents of UZR think its great.
  2. USAFChief
    Help me with the math, please. Which CFers had 500 chances last year? The run value of a single is .75? Where did you get the "opportunity" numbers from? Help me with theory, please. Are we sure a season of Gary Matthews Jr and Vernon Wells can really change the baseline? I thought UZR was based off a rolling average of plays made and not made over 6 years..is that incorrect? If so, a season of those two should have very little impact on Franklin Gutierrez, correct? Maybe no impact at all, unless you believe CF never had players like Matthews and Wells before, and never will again? EDIT: thanks Jimmer, for posting the primer below and confirming the six year rolling data used for comparison. That seems to rule out "other bad CFer" as a possible cause for the wild swings in Gutierrez' UZR, no?
  3. USAFChief
    I don't like to compare players using WAR, because I don't think it's very useful, but since you brought it up...as I understand it, about 1/3 of Dyson's WAR is solely due to him standing in CF, right? You don't have him in CF in your above scenario. So wouldn't you need to lop off a good portion of that WAR were he a Twin and standing in LF or RF?
  4. USAFChief
    Don't feel bad. I had the Gophers into the regional final.
  5. USAFChief
    I guess I would rather Arcia and Vargas get full time jobs, or nearly full time jobs, so they get the best chance to develop into something, or play themselves out of the picture. Same with Rosario...wherever he's at, he needs to be playing every day. Mauer would be at first base 155 games, so not much room for Vargas there, either. And Dyson....I think Dyson would be an acceptable 4th outfielder, but he's not someone I'd pursue, nor would he ever take playing time away from any of Rosario, Vargas or Arcia. Or Hicks, for that matter, if Hicks is on the team. He's 30. Can't hit, won't run as fast in the near future.
  6. USAFChief
    Hal-lah-insert your word of choice here-lu-yah!
  7. USAFChief
    Concur on all points, particularly the last one.
  8. USAFChief
    The ol' 6-4-2 double play, IIRC. Or was it 5-4-2?
  9. USAFChief
    I am probably misreading your post...are you proposing Vargas share playing time in the OF? And Dyson at DH?
  10. USAFChief
    I'm not sure how else to read your post above. So what becomes of Arcia then?
  11. USAFChief
    Trading Arcia for 30 year old, .650 OPS, never been a full time everyday player Jerrod Dyson sounds more like a nightmare than a dream to me. I bet KC would be up for that trade.
  12. USAFChief
    I think the strongest argument against "use your best reliever in the highest leverage situation" isn't comfort. Rather, it's difficult to have your best reliever ready for the highest leverage situation. How would a manager do that? Unless he can predict the results of the next three hitters, he can't know when the highest leverage situation will occur. I am all for longer outings by relievers. I am all for using your best reliever in situations other than "9th inning up 3 or less." But I think it's asking a lot of a manager to always have his best reliever ready for the perfect moment. He'd have to be warmed and ready from the 6th inning on, every close game.
  13. USAFChief
    FWIW, Just wanted to say I have very much enjoyed this thread. I am going to read it several more times before even thinking about posting. There's a lot to chew on here.
  14. USAFChief
    You might be right. But if it were me I'd do it differently. I am also growing more doubtful either path would ultimately succeed, so there's that, too. Hope to be proven way wrong.
  15. USAFChief
    Concur...with that part. Where I part ways is, distasteful as it is, I would give Hicks the CF job and let it play out until he proves worthy, or he proves incapable. He at least represents a prospect with a chance of being someone who will hold a big league position for a while and be a plus doing so. If he suddenly turns into an asset, great. If he fails yet again, hopefully by then Rosario or better yet, Buxton get a shot. Say, July first. But there is no point in investing half a season in Shafer/Robinson, who will almost certainly never hold the position and might actually end up worse than Hicks anyway. I doubt AAA time helps Hicks much at this point. He needs to play, and that might as well be at the highest level. He has enough years in professional baseball to sink or swim.
  16. USAFChief
    Respectfully, the 120 run number doesn't come from me, it comes from the Fangraphs article. It flatly states there was a 120 run difference, based solely on defensive measurements, between those two teams. It even rhetorically asks us to speculate about the 12 wins those runs represent. There is no mention of pitcher quality, or sequencing, or any other mitigating factor. I'm a skeptic, which isn't news, and isn't important. But it does occur to me that supporters should be wondering 1) do these measurements really measure anything, and 2) if so, are the results of these measurements so obscured by, or overwhelmed by other factors as to tell us nothing useful? In this specific case, pitcher quality doesn't seem able to hide 90 runs. And if random sequencing overwhelms defense to this extent, how do we know Cleveland isn't really good, but was only the victim of unfortunate timing? Why would we be trying to measure defense if it doesn't actually account for runs allowed? If I seem argumentative, apologies in advance. I sincerely would like to believe in defensive metrics. But IMO the data doesn't support such a belief. YMMV.
  17. USAFChief
    I'm in. Thanks SD.
  18. USAFChief
    Yes.
  19. USAFChief
    I'm all ears, my friend. Teach me. How come the 120 run difference only added up to 29 on the field?
  20. USAFChief
    Defense and WAR don't count when the bullpen is in? And if it doesn't add up, why pay attention? I'm still skeptical there was a 120 run difference between those two defenses last year.
  21. USAFChief
    A quick check of Fangraphs shows Cleveland with 20.1 team pitching WAR, KC with 18.8. Now look what you've done...you have me checking--and quoting--WAR. For pitchers, no less! In any case, it doesn't seem to explain the 90 missing runs.
  22. USAFChief
    The Fangraphs article claims a 120 run defensive difference between KC and Cleveland last year. Cleveland allowed 653 runs. KC allowed 624. It's probably just me, but the math seems...questionable. Or Does this mean Cleveland's pitching was 90 runs better than KC's?
  23. USAFChief
    Nitpics: Per baseballref: First basemen in the AL 2014 OPS: .735 LFers: .722 RFers: .726 CFers: .712 DHs: .744 Twins first basemen: .669 LFers: .663 RFers: .731 CFers: .746 DHs: .765 I don't know exactly what Nick meant by "regulars" but the Twins got above league average OPS's from DH and CF last year, slightly above average OPS from RF, and below average from 1b and LF. Above average from C, 2b, SS, and 3b, btw.
  24. USAFChief
    I just checked, and my pulse is fine, even though I'm not "excited" in the least by prospects. Hopeful, intrigued, sure. But not excited. I get excited about MLB games in September that mean something. Postseason games. I'm glad the Twins have some quality and depth in the minors. It is certainly better than not having either. But it hasn't translated into anything yet, a good portion of the quality is there only because of how badly they've performed at the only level that matters, and one major piece is there thanks to a one-time-only strategy of outbidding everyone else on an international free agent. I'll get excited when and if any of this actually means something more than hopeful opinions, because that's all it is. I think it's important to remember "if" is still very much in play.
  25. USAFChief
    How many of us would turn down the chance to do something we love, where the minimum salary is $500k, if offered?
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