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PDX Twin

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Everything posted by PDX Twin

  1. PDX Twin
    But surely he will Excel in the bullpen...
  2. PDX Twin
    Doesn't the article say that the metric starts in 2002?
  3. PDX Twin
    Good riddance to Pedroia (whom I always called "The Twerp") and his endless stream of Twins-killing hits!
  4. PDX Twin
    I don't like the idea that the Twins must always have someone with a major-league track record for every slot. That's expensive and gives us a team of 30-somethings. The current squad is mostly home-built, and the next generation needs a chance to play soon.
  5. PDX Twin
    This is a good point. Keeping a final-year star rather than trading for prospects is just like trading prospects for such a person without the likelihood of a re-signing. You end up with one year of the star but fewer prospects. The prospects we got didn't turn out very well. And sometimes the prospects we don't give up in a trade for a Lindor, say, don't work out either. But at least we have much better information about our own prospects than about those we get in trades.
  6. PDX Twin
    I agree that this is hard. This is like comparing whether you want a good engine or a good transmission---you need both to succeed. I guess that the common denominator here is dollars. Each can be bought, which allows us to observe relative prices that signal scarcity. That figures into your discussion of Rooker and the relief pitchers above.
  7. PDX Twin
    This seems like a simple extrapolation of recent records. Rather like the predictions of "big data" methods: decent as long as the future is just like the past. But it never is. When Covid hit, many economic forecasters didn't know what to do because they had no past data from which to extrapolate. They actually had to think, a task at which some of them are inexperienced and, at times, incompetent.
  8. PDX Twin
    Why is this? I think there are (at least) two reasons to doubt outcome statistics for relievers. First, one season is a small sample size for a typical relief pitcher -- 50-70 innings. One bad/unlucky outing (4 earned runs, say) can take a month of shutout pitching to dilute down to a decent ERA. Second, more of their outcome statistics are out of their control than any other player. They often leave runners on base who may or may not score and they may end up facing clutch pinch hitters selected specifically to face them. I'm a skeptic about the tendency of some to denigrate outcome-based statistics, but this seems like one area where structural performance numbers such as velocity, spin rate, and detailed location data can be most helpful and ERA is less useful, at least season by season.
  9. PDX Twin
    This makes sense if we want to find at-bats for the three young outfield prospects over the next couple of seasons.
  10. PDX Twin
    Aren't prototypes by definition experimental?
  11. PDX Twin
    So 37 on the roster means 3 slots for FAs? Or are there injured players that need to be added?
  12. PDX Twin
    Offer him an outsized 5-year contract, but with incentive clauses that keep the cost down if he only plays 90 games. If the number is big enough, he will take it. And the incentive clauses are only fair given his track record.
  13. PDX Twin
    These things tend to be self-correcting, and this will too. Good hitters will start taking advantage of the open space more often. Bad hitters--even super-strong ones who hit 30 HRs---will get weeded out as their OBPs drop into the .200s. The game will be better for it: fewer HRs and fewer strikeouts: More like baseball and less like homerun derby. Arise, Arraezs of the world!
  14. PDX Twin
    I vote for Trevor Rogers to join Taylor Rogers and, for good measure, acquiring Taylor's brother Tyler Rogers. This would give us the most confusing bullpen in baseball history! Would they put first names on their jerseys?
  15. PDX Twin
    Is Nick Gordon not in the conversation at all? I know that he has had recurring health issues and that he has often disappointed on the field, but I find it shocking that we have a whole article with 8 lengthy comments about replacing Polanco and that Gordon (a first-round choice with AAA experience) doesn't get even a mention.
  16. PDX Twin
    I haven't lived in Minnesota for 50 years, so my recollections are very old, but fond memories of devouring the sports section of the Trib (no S because the Star was in the evening back then) with breakfast. I had a trivial and distant personal connection with Sid because a classmate of mine was his nephew. Never got to meet him, but in our little town any connection to fame was exciting!
  17. PDX Twin
    I worry about trading Kepler/Rosario/Polanco for the latest incarnation of Matt Capps.
  18. PDX Twin
    In every sport, a winning strategy works because it beats yesterday's opposing strategy. The shift works more often than not against a player who continues to follow his past spray chart. The comment about Rod Carew is spot-on. Every minor leaguer should be drilled on learning the bat control to put the ball in the defensive gaps. It might take 5 years, but as more players learn to do this and more teams look for players who can do this, the shift will wane in success and popularity.
  19. PDX Twin
    Seems like an ideal candidate for a contract with performance clauses. Half guaranteed and the rest kicking in at 80 games and 120 games played.
  20. PDX Twin
    Choke + Clutch = Ruined engine and transmission.
  21. PDX Twin
    Speak for yourself. I still rely on it as an important indicator.
  22. PDX Twin
    Garver to the Yankees to join his hitting and catching coaches? Depends on what we get back, of course.
  23. PDX Twin
    Off topic, but thanks for asking. The last week has looked like the apocalypse here. The air quality index was 516 yesterday, which is beyond the top of the "hazardous" region. They don't have a name for it, just "beyond scale." That said, we are grateful that the high east winds that were blowing the fires (and the smoke) from the forests into Portland have subsided, and it looks like the main metro area is not going to be threatened by fire. It seems a bit like rooting for the Yankees to be hoping for rain in Portland, but that's what we need to clean out the air. Maybe tonight or tomorrow, and likely at the end of the week. There is hope!
  24. PDX Twin
    You are a treasure for TD! Thank you so much for your informed analyses. We all tend to speculate regarding things about which we know little, so advice from a true expect is priceless!
  25. PDX Twin
    Not enough AB to really know, but his strikeout rate (5/19) was not prohibitive here. That was my biggest worry about him and it remains to be seen if he can continue to make contact once the pitchers start to figure him out a little next year.
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