alarp33
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Everything posted by alarp33
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1) I mean fangraphs has them at 3.9%, that is a fact. Whether they actually make the playoffs? Who knows. Its certainly a long shot. 2) I wrote "I would never even consider trading a top 20 prospect like Lewis to try and compete for a division title.". are we splitting hairs here or what? Try being the key word as its a big uphill battle
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Not a terrible example, the Mets did have 25% playoff odds, more than 3x the Twins current odds. They were also much more set up to win once they got their in my opinion, based off their rotation. And of course Fulmer was the 98th ranked prospect entering that season, not top 20 like Lewis is.
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I would not trade for rentals right now. I have zero interest in that either. I would keep them on the radar if something crazy happens over the next month to flip the Twins 2018 odds around. Next year? Lots of options for how this team can improve next offseason. I'd certainly look at Ramos, but am also not totally against rolling with Garver + Castro and spending the money/ resources elsewhere
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The Twins have a 3.9% chance to win the Central. No, I would definitely not trade a top 20 prospect to chase those odds. And I'm guessing no GM in their right mind would either. Can you provide a similar example in the history of baseball where a team in the Twins current position has made a trade like that?
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Yes. The return in November won't be much different at all than it will be in late July. If anything it brings more teams into it while only sacrificing 2 months (and playoffs) of control. I'd look at Lucroy or Ramos. I still would want to see more out of this team who's 6 games out in the central and 11 games out in the WC before giving up a significant piece
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What was unclear about what I typed? You'll have to be more specific
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Agreed. Lucroy will be used as a comp, but it's certainly not a perfect one. I know the Indians were giving up "less" before the trade was blocked, but that same no trade clause also eliminated some teams that could have offered more. I think Realmuto is worth more than Lucroy was, but none of us have any idea how the Brewers or Rangers valued Brinson/ Ortiz so it's all speculation.
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We are on vastly different wavelengths on how to build a team then. I would never even consider trading a top 20 prospect like Lewis to try and compete for a division title.
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Well they aren't competing this year, and its going to take a hell of an off season to compete next year. Sure they can upgrade catcher, but my point has been why would you do it right now? If Buxton and Sano stink, this team definitely is 3+ years from contention so why are you giving up top 100 prospects for a catcher that will be a FA by the time the team reloads? If Sano and Buxton figure it out (I still think possible) THEN you maybe make a move like trading the farm for Realmuto. The timing as we sit here today could not be worse
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Because the Twins are nowhere near the level of the Astros, Yankees, etc. right now they should just throw up their hands and sell Buxton and Sano at the absolute bottom of their value 4 years before they're free agents? I would certainly not recommend that approach
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It was published on 7/14/16, right before the deadline for draftees to sign... a few that had already signed were included. Also removes the players from the pre-season 2016 rankings who had graduated to the majors
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Ortiz was #46 on Keith Law's update that summer, he was a 20 year old in AA at the time of the trade. I don't put much stock at all in Jeffress being included. Sure it was a nice add, but he was traded a year later for a non prospect. I do put a lot of stock in the fact that Realmuto has the extra year of control over Lucroy, and is 27 not 30
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What minor league pitcher do the Twins have that has significant trade value? I used "meh" because they don't have a SP that is worth a whole lot in the minors. Graterol is intriguing but he's certainly no where near ready to headline a deal or be a significant piece of it
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Agreed. While I mentioned I don't think Lewis AND Kiriloff get it done on their own, I don't think you have to add significantly to that, probably a couple of really young lottery tickets, or a AAA starter like you mentioned. I would wager something like this would get it done or close to it. Lewis Kiriloff Enlow Thorpe I would pass. I would not include Lewis in any trade at this point in time when the Twins are as far away from contention as they appear. FWIW, the Brewers got #20 + #47 for Lucroy (per ESPN's mid season update in 2016).
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Sure - the Marlins who have a full extra year of control, a catcher that is better and 3 years younger, will settle for much less than the Brewers got for Lucroy. Keep telling yourself that
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No. Meaning its going to take multiple real pieces. Lewis certainly being one of them
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The trade offers in this thread are getting crazy. I think we all agree Realmuto is one of the 3-4 best catchers in baseball? He has 2.5 years of control left. You are NOT getting him without offering ELITE prospects. I truly do not think Kiriloff AND Lewis get it done on their own. I highly doubt Gonsalves has that much value, Garver has little to no value, and Thorpe is a total long shot / wild card. The headliners would very likely need to be 2 top 50 prospects for a player like Realmuto with this much control left
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Teams covet that? This is the Marlins, the team that traded Christian Yelich and is extremely friendly contract, who I believe is under team control for the same amount of time Kepler is. Why exactly would the Marlins be interested in Kepler?
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You think the best catcher in baseball with 2 years control can be had for Kepler, Garver and a meh SP prospect? Miami doesn't even answer the phone
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Good summary. Also worth pointing out, OBP and SLG don't even use the same denominator. OBP uses plate appearances and SLG uses at bats.
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I don't think you understand. No one has said slugging is not a very important part of baseball. Your Barry Bonds example proves exactly nothing, except that Barry Bonds was really frickin' good and lots of times managers would prefer him on 1st than rounding the bases. No one is denying a HR is more important than a walk in an isolated at bat Bonds was .582/.799/ 1.381 in 2002. It is a proven fact that line is more important to a team than if someone was .400/.981/1.381
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Article: Twins Daily Roundtable: Fixing the Offense
alarp33 replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Who leads off between Mauer and Dozier in the long run wouldn't make a huge difference. But you are incorrect in thinking SLG > OBP -
There are actual math studies that prove this, it's not really an opinion thing. OBP is worth about twice as much as SLG, like the other poster stated As another example, take one team with a .300/.500 split, and one with a .400/.400 split. Though both teams have an OPS of .800, the first team is expected to score 4.9 runs per game while the second should score about 5.8. This suggests that, in many situations, trading slugging for OBP could be a good idea. https://sportsstatsanalysis.wordpress.com/2009/06/10/whats-more-important-obp-slugging-or-ops/
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Article: Twins Daily Roundtable: Fixing the Offense
alarp33 replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
You are really correlating his fit for lead off because of his runs total? Dozier's MLB Ranks by Year 2017 - Plate Appearances: 6th Runs: T-8 2016 - PA: 17th Runs: 16th 2015 - PA: 3rd Runs: 11th 2014 - PA: T-7th Runs: 2nd It also helps that he hits a lot of home runs... which would happen in any spot in the lineup.. -
You keep calling this odd. It is possible the Twins did try to make a deal and the Royals liked what they got from Washington.Believe it or not, MLB teams use their own prospects rankings and scouting reports, not the lists you and I do to decide on players. It is also possible the Twins did not want to give up what the Royals wanted. Also possible the Twins didn't have interest in Herrerra. Lots of players will be traded between now and the end of August. Some may be traded by the Twins, some may be traded to the Twins, some may be traded between teams who are not the Twins. Or even more plausible, since the GM has come out and said it, it was really hard for them to trade a player they signed at 16, and they wanted to put him in a great spot where he could compete for a title...
