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Taildragger8791

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Everything posted by Taildragger8791

  1. Taildragger8791
    Except now you're giving up (potentially multiple) youthful players or prospects. And as a result you'll looking for a new 2B in a couple years when this core they're trying to build should just be entering its prime.
  2. Taildragger8791
    I don't know if there's actually any truth to this, but I'd be interested in some stats to back it up. However, it is true that over recent years umpires are calling the low strike more and that's traditionally been Mauer's weaker part of the zone. That's led to more strikeouts and weak contact, but not because he's getting screwed on bad strike calls.
  3. Taildragger8791
    I hope so, I just see it being difficult when the guy had a relatively short run of greatness compared to most HOF careers and his game was built around contact & on-base skills and gap power. He had very good defensive skills too, I think that gets lost a lot. It might take him a lot of years on the ballot. It would really help if he had some postseason accolades to point to, but alas, the damn Yankees and Phil Cuzzi. 50 career WAR also looks to be on the low end for HoF hitters that played in the last 40 years, and if they're considering only his catching years then he compiled about 45 WAR during that time. I don't think piling up 1-2 WAR per year at 1B for 5+ seasons is a factor in his case.
  4. Taildragger8791
    If he gets in it'll be on the batting titles, MVP, elite years of AVG & OBP, and some future generation of sportswriters that give weight to advanced stats during his catching days. Nothing he's doing at 1B is really helping his candidacy since he doesn't have the counting numbers that impress. He never cracked 100 RBI, only cracked 90 RBI once, and even 70 RBI only five times. Only one season above 13 HRs and six seasons in the double digits. Walks and doubles don't help much unless they come from an elite runner and base stealer. The counting stat he does have is hits, as you mentioned. It's not a sure thing, but he should reach 2,000 hits if he's healthy and plays at least 3/4 time the next two years or has a big bounce back year. I'm just not sure that'll be enough without elite run production, game-changing power, base-running numbers, or something else to go along with it. Especially when the last 5 years of his career will have been padding that hit total with replacement-level play at 1B.
  5. Taildragger8791
    I'd have more faith in his ability to produce into his mid-30's if he had a longer track record of great performance. Those players you mentioned were great all through their 20's, they didn't suddenly have a surge on the cusp of 30. If he's still hitting 30+ jacks the next to years then sure, an extension would be warranted at some later point. If he falls back to hitting 25 jacks at .240/.320/.445 then I'd be a lot less likely to bet on this age 32+ seasons.
  6. Taildragger8791
    That is one extremely optimistic prediction on Buxton. .265 with 15 homers and 25 steals would be a good 2017 for him and represent significant progress. He's capable of more but I'm not going to set my expectations too high this season. I don't see Buxton ever stealing much over 30 bases unless he gets more aggressive without slipping his success rate. Or he suddenly becomes an on-base machine.
  7. Taildragger8791
    I agree there are some changes occurring which opens the opportunity for improvement. However, that still depends on a bunch of circumstances having the best reasonable outcome, and even then the ceiling is limited the candidates we'll be cycling through this year. All it takes is something like Molitor giving a long leash and 100 innings to a hobbled Hughes to undo a good chunk of that opportunity. If we shave a full run off our ERA, a monumental improvement, we'd still only be back to middle-of-the-pack. It's a steep climb to make in one season.
  8. Taildragger8791
    Not really an equal comparison. Buxton and Sano are super young and extendable, Dozier will be 31 going on 32 the season following this contract. Pretty much a guarantee he walks because the Twins won't pay him $15+ million at that point. And we have a good player ready to slot into his defensive position. And 2017 is a pipe dream to compete because we have essentially the same pitching staff that just finished dead last in baseball again. It would take several long-shot circumstances all going extremely right to correct that. And we don't exactly play in a powder puff division, either. Obligatory disclaimer to avoid a straw-man response: Of course I don't advocate trading Dozier at all costs just to get rid of him, but it's pretty undeniable that the rebuild is going to be delayed/weakened if we can't flip him for pitching. Whether that's due to uncontrollable circumstances or the Twins' own mistakes, it doesn't change that fact.
  9. Taildragger8791
    The only connection I'd draw, and I'd agree it's tenuous, is: 1) Front office - The front office and scouting system haven't yet been overhauled, it's only been ~3 months since Falvey/Levine took over. So we're still operating largely on the same infrastructure and scouting information from the Terry Ryan era. It'll take time to reorganize this. Falvey/Levine also may be hesitant to immediately stick their necks out on a deal that has a non-guaranteed return. 2) Ownership - Dozier is the face of the team right now and the only marketing darling we have. Amid dwindling fan interest the ownership may not be willing to accept a dip in on-field performance and ticket sales without a failure-proof return. It's admittedly a stretch, but that's the only connection I see.
  10. Taildragger8791
    Demand could certainly be lower if he has another 2 month slump and invalidates the opinion that he's "figured it out and hit his prime".
  11. Taildragger8791
    Have to agree with this. Bautista doesn't do anything for us unless he comes in with the understanding that we trade him at the deadline if he's mashing. At least that assures he might end up with a contender in the second half and we possibly get better value than a 2nd round pick would provide. Otherwise, I'm not interested.
  12. Taildragger8791
    Or maybe there's something going on with how the front office has operated that resulted in them not finding and getting great value in trades. Lack of creativity, poor negotiation, or insufficient scouting of other systems, perhaps.
  13. Taildragger8791
    Then you keep Dozier. But the Dodgers still walk away in great shape as an organization and the Twins walk away with a stagnant, unbalanced, log-jammed roster with league-worst pitching and little help on the horizon.
  14. Taildragger8791
    I'm guessing Reed will be given more seasoning in AAA, but I could see this one happening. That would be a pleasant surprise. No chance on Burdi, he missed essentially the entire season and has yet to prove himself at AA. Not sure why people are looking at him as anything more than a lottery ticket for 2017. Even if he's fully healthy he still has a crazy high walk rate to get under control (almost 7 per 9 at AA). Berrios is the one I have my eye on. Realistic opportunity for him to surprise. Same for Park, although I'd take a good ST performance from him with a big grain of salt. He could come out mashing against ST pitchers operating with restrictor plates on. His real test will come in-season. Health of Hughes/Perkins could be a big one, since I currently expect both to be hobbled and limited. The competition between Garver and JRM could result in a pleasant surprise. Hopefully one of them takes the backup job and runs with it instead of having someone back into that spot. I'm not going to consider anything from Sano & Buxton as training camp surprises because they should be expected to produce at this point. Same for Mauer, who will likely feast on early-season pitching again.
  15. Taildragger8791
    What injury caused him to slump for nearly a full calendar year? From what I recall he was pretty healthy over much of that span. He's always been a streaky hitter, usually the streaks were just shorter.
  16. Taildragger8791
    In this particular case, I think he's saying pretty explicitly that De Leon is the only significant piece in the deal. His language is a little more exact than the likely misconstrued comments from LEN III's article (I think it was LEN?).
  17. Taildragger8791
    Good teams don't avoid adding talent because they're worried about blocking a bunch of mediocre or unproven players. They stockpile as much as they can and sort it out later. Most of that sorting happens naturally because the flameout rate is so high on young players. It might sound promising to rattle off a long list of names but that list gets thin in a hurry when you really evaluate it. Santana is in his mid-30's and is the best pitcher in that group, he's not going to be here for much longer. Gibson could pitch himself out of a job this year. Hughes is a lottery ticket to ever start effectively again. May and Duffey are running out of time to establish themselves in the rotation and may be permanently bound for the bullpen. Berrios has a long ways to go and his talent will get him a lot of time to work through his struggles, but you can't count on his future right now. Mejia isn't a game changer. That leaves a lot of potential openings to rotate prospects through in a year or two. Furthermore, those prospects have ceilings as 4's and borderline 3's in some cases, with a few that could fall back to being solid relievers, but the failure rate is so high that I'm not worried about blocking someone if it means acquiring a solid #3 or better pitcher. The truly good players will always separate themselves and force their way onto the roster.
  18. Taildragger8791
    The point is that Dozier's performance is relatively negligible in the win/loss result for this team as-constructed because they are so uncompetitive. It's a pointless luxury to have a slugging second baseman when you're fielding a league-worst pitching staff paired with poor defense and a streaky lineup.
  19. Taildragger8791
    It doesn't cost the Cards anything to negotiate and drive up the price, so ROI isn't a factor. The point is to prevent the Dodgers from getting that 40 HR 2B on the cheap.
  20. Taildragger8791
    Not as long as you may think. Pitchers and catchers report in 7 weeks!
  21. Taildragger8791
    I don't know if I'd call the Twins' approach to the offseason "aggressive" yet. They signed a defense-first catcher and with the Dozier trade losing steam there's a realistic possibility that ends up being the only move. If nobody gets traded we're going to have another awkward roster with a homeless Polanco, logjam at 1B/DH, Rosario entrenched at full-time LF, and a messy musical chairs rotation & bullpen that'll see regular churn as guys play their way out of jobs. I'm not sure what they could have done better this offseason other than execute trades though. Young guys need to play. It'll be a little disheartening to see a familiar-looking disheveled opening day roster. Hopefully the kids will be better and show real progress and give this season some life and hope for the future.
  22. Taildragger8791
    At this point it's silly to expect or plan on anything from Hughes. He's coming off a pretty mysterious injury, with a surgery that only had marginal hopes of fully resolving the problem. If he comes back healthy then that's a happy surprise and he can work out of the bullpen until he proves his arm is good to go. Then maybe move into the rotation when a spot opens up due to inevitable injuries and poor performance.
  23. Taildragger8791
    It's absolutely a Twins problem, not a small market one. High end pitching talent is rarely available in free agency for less than exhorbant prices unless there are serious health issues attached. It has to be acquired through drafts, international signings, and prospect trades. Of course, you have to keep the talent you managed to get, not squander it away in busted trades (this has been a Twins issue with all types of players).
  24. Taildragger8791
    That makes sense considering his propensity for hitting fly balls. Tough to elevate the BABIP without more line drives, or grounders to the left side that have a chance to be outrun.
  25. Taildragger8791
    If the Twins really saw strong potential and signability in Springer I doubt they'd have waited until the 48th round to pick him. It was almost surely a gamble pick on a talented kid that was bound for college. It just doesn't pass the sniff test as a genuinely realistic selection.
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