Shane Wahl

When coming to form one's beliefs or making evaluations about things, the rather vast ocean between blind faith and evidence sets up a stark contrast in reasoned (or un-reasoned) judgment. This post is not about evolution or theism, but about something much less important in the grand scheme of things. This post is about the Twins' evaluation of Anthony Slama. Let's first examine the evidence, sticking to Slama's minor league and major league statistics. In parts of four seasons in AAA Rochester, Slama has 146 2/3 inning pitched, a 2.21 ERA, 183 K, 72 BB (2.54 K/BB), and a 1.152 WHIP. In 2012, Slama has improved upon the K/BB rate (3.0) with a whopping 15.1 K/9 together with a 5 BB/9. Let me repeat, this year he has been striking out 15 batters per 9 innings. With such impressive AAA stats (and much the same or better at the lower levels in the minors), certainly Slama has seen ample time up with the Twins, right? He pitched 4 2/3 innings in 2010 and 2 1/3 innings in 2011. Yes, the guy striking out AAA batters at an incredibly high rate has only seven total innings up with the Twins. So, clearly stats lie, in the view of the relevant decision makers for the Twins. What, then, are the Twins basing their evaluation of Slama on instead? I submit that it is blind faith, but more importantly it is blind faith in their (the Twins' decision makers) ability to evaluate players and make projections into the major league future. Slama does not "have the stuff" and Gardenhire himself has made the claim that Slama's fastball is too straight vertically and horizontally for the majors, or in his eloquent words, "up here you've got to make it do something." Instead of using the evidence of Slama's AAA success to make a reasonable projection about his MLB projected performance, the Twins would rather rely on the faith they have in their seeing-eye assessment of Slama's stuff. AAA batters are actually pretty well-equipped to hit straight fastballs as well (in fact, that is usually the one thing hitters in AAA can do, even if they can't hit anything else and never make it to the majors). I could perhaps forgive this blind faith evaluation (in their own talents as evaluators, not in Slama) if the Twins A: had a bullpen full of better pitchers who were going to mean something for the Twins in the future, and B: if the Twins were in a division or wild card race and couldn't afford 20 innings given to a reliever they were leery of promoting. But neither A or B are true. While, Alex Burnett has been incredibly lucky not to get destroyed this year, he does have an option left and that should not be burned this season (it will next season, trust me!). But Jeff Gray is a pitching abomination. He (like Burnett) walks almost as many as he strikes out and he isn't striking many out to begin with. He has somehow been given 51 2/3 innings to pitch this year. And Gray has no future with the Twins, isn't getting better, and will be 31 in a few months. It is mind-boggling to me to consider the thought process involved in keeping Jeff Gray on the roster instead of Anthony Slama. Now, plenty of people at Twins Daily will wonder why one might complain about the last bullpen spot on a horrible team. Well, first, I am for improving the team at all roster spots if possible and it never matters how good or bad the team is in the first place. Second, is that there has to be some kind of justice in the baseball world! Anthony Slama deserves an opportunity with the Twins. We are also talking about livelihoods here as well. I have come to the point where I actually believe that the Twins are not promoting Slama because they are scared that he will succeed. That would prove them wrong and would make them have to question how they evaluate pitchers. The faithful do not like either of those two things happening.

When coming to form one's beliefs or making evaluations about things, the rather vast ocean between blind faith and evidence sets up a stark contrast in reasoned (or un-reasoned) judgment. This post is not about evolution or theism, but about something much less important in the grand scheme of things. This post is about the Twins' evaluation of Anthony Slama. Let's first examine the evidence, sticking to Slama's minor league and major league statistics. In parts of four seasons in AAA Rochester, Slama has 146 2/3 inning pitched, a 2.21 ERA, 183 K, 72 BB (2.54 K/BB), and a 1.152 WHIP. In 2012, Slama has improved upon the K/BB rate (3.0) with a whopping 15.1 K/9 together with a 5 BB/9. Let me repeat, this year he has been striking out 15 batters per 9 innings. With such impressive AAA stats (and much the same or better at the lower levels in the minors), certainly Slama has seen ample time up with the Twins, right? He pitched 4 2/3 innings in 2010 and 2 1/3 innings in 2011. Yes, the guy striking out AAA batters at an incredibly high rate has only seven total innings up with the Twins. So, clearly stats lie, in the view of the relevant decision makers for the Twins. What, then, are the Twins basing their evaluation of Slama on instead? I submit that it is blind faith, but more importantly it is blind faith in their (the Twins' decision makers) ability to evaluate players and make projections into the major league future. Slama does not "have the stuff" and Gardenhire himself has made the claim that Slama's fastball is too straight vertically and horizontally for the majors, or in his eloquent words, "up here you've got to make it do something." Instead of using the evidence of Slama's AAA success to make a reasonable projection about his MLB projected performance, the Twins would rather rely on the faith they have in their seeing-eye assessment of Slama's stuff. AAA batters are actually pretty well-equipped to hit straight fastballs as well (in fact, that is usually the one thing hitters in AAA can do, even if they can't hit anything else and never make it to the majors). I could perhaps forgive this blind faith evaluation (in their own talents as evaluators, not in Slama) if the Twins A: had a bullpen full of better pitchers who were going to mean something for the Twins in the future, and B: if the Twins were in a division or wild card race and couldn't afford 20 innings given to a reliever they were leery of promoting. But neither A or B are true. While, Alex Burnett has been incredibly lucky not to get destroyed this year, he does have an option left and that should not be burned this season (it will next season, trust me!). But Jeff Gray is a pitching abomination. He (like Burnett) walks almost as many as he strikes out and he isn't striking many out to begin with. He has somehow been given 51 2/3 innings to pitch this year. And Gray has no future with the Twins, isn't getting better, and will be 31 in a few months. It is mind-boggling to me to consider the thought process involved in keeping Jeff Gray on the roster instead of Anthony Slama. Now, plenty of people at Twins Daily will wonder why one might complain about the last bullpen spot on a horrible team. Well, first, I am for improving the team at all roster spots if possible and it never matters how good or bad the team is in the first place. Second, is that there has to be some kind of justice in the baseball world! Anthony Slama deserves an opportunity with the Twins. We are also talking about livelihoods here as well. I have come to the point where I actually believe that the Twins are not promoting Slama because they are scared that he will succeed. That would prove them wrong and would make them have to question how they evaluate pitchers. The faithful do not like either of those two things happening.

Who is saying that elite prospects would still be in A ball? You cannot deny, however, that the Twins have promoted the slowest in baseball (for position players, close for pitchers) at least through 2010. Yes, I do think it hampers players, especially if they are looking at the Toby Gardenhires and Rene Riveras of the world above them.

Well this is going to depend on how one views the different levels in the system. I am one for pushing quickly to Beloit and then later certainly pushing from New Britain to Rochester. There are some players who I think languished and ended up not amounting to much, but who knows the effect that showing confidence in a player might have. Steve Singleton was an example for the past few years. I find it bizarre that Nate Roberts is still in Beloit right now. Matt Koch should have been promoted to Fort Myers. Chris Herrmann to Rochester. Benson and Parmelee should have been given some AAA time last year. And one could go on and on. I haven't even begun to discuss the pitchers.

Usually it would be five, right? Is the league afraid the Twins will go to a 6-man rotation?

It is flat-out ridiculous to use Jeff Gray instead of Anthony Slama. I have to imagine Guerra is going to get a look in September as well. Burnett, Waldrop, and Gray should make for some 5+ run innings.

Yeah, it matters that he stay at 2B and progress fast. I don't like to nay-say, but I am surprised that he won the award. Is there really no more productive hitter in that league!? Hyper-valuation of batting average or something?

I am really not down with trading more than one of the Twins core, unless there are established replacements. Parmelee's AAA numbers are ridiculous. I am more confident that he could at least put up his 2011 NBR numbers in the majors. That's worthy of trading Morneau for a good pitcher. However, I don't really see Revere as Span's replacement any longer given they were so effective *together* in the lineup. But I am NOT comfortable with replacing him with a AA player yet. How could I? Revere needed time in AAA. Clearly Parmelee did too. Hicks and Arcia in AAA to begin the year next year and maybe by June a Span trade would be a good idea (as long as there are no injuries to Willingham or Revere at that point). Point taken back on Marcum.

So . . . what became of this? I should further elaborate . . . I generally find back and forth discussions more appealing . . . so the forums are a much better place for that. If I knew that people read blog posts (I "view" many as well!) and they generated more comments, then I would certainly blog more. And it isn't content-based. I am sure that if I posted a blog and a discussion thread with the exact same text, The latter would be out-commented upon 10 to 1 at least.

Never had a problem with it on any computer until today. Yeah, that has actually bothered my TD time this morning.

Well, I like Carson, but clearly the bullpen is in a pickle at the moment.

I am not sure what you are really getting at, Jeremy. I don't see that happening at all. That's the exact opposite of what I think should happen and even what will likely happen. Anyway, I am not sure if Span is necessarily more valuable in a trade than Morneau. It depends on the team. And the Twins could throw in a Swarzak, Gutierrez, or someone else to make it more palatable. Clearly, if Parmelee is going to be a Twin, Morneau has got to go. There is no other palatable way if Parmelee is going to be a Twin next year.

Thrylos, am I suppose to gather from this that you might be a fan of keeping Morneau and playing Parmelee in RF? If not (hopefully not), who is going to in RF, at least at the start of the season (until June, maybe?). I will concede that Mastroianni has been fantastic in his role, and I think Carson is an adequate fill-in for awhile too (I mean the dude was consistently between .280 and .295 all year in Rochester, and with solid power).

This is incredibly helpful for wannabe GM-ing.

I didn't mean to get rid of Robertson (I know I wasn't very clear about that part), but I want to see him give up fewer hits. Maybe some more time in Rochester? I could easily sub-in someone else for Marcum. Not sure who yet. Morneau and paying half (or more) of his contract next season could fetch a young top pitcher. Maybe not an ACE ace, but a number one.

Not a huge surprise, he was considered one of the fastest to the majors college players and he came from a great baseball conference. I don't think the Twins should have taken him though. (Of course, once he gets to Seattle, he'll hit like Nick Punto ...) Well I had my doubts about him. If drafted by the Twins he would still be in Beloit . . .

Well, Guerra is out of options (strange isn't it), so they have to make a decision. I would doubt that he would clear waivers. I like the idea of trading Morneau for an arbitration-eligible younger pitcher. There are about a dozen good ones. And Oakland has a few of them. Burnett has gotten by somehow this year with more walks than strikeouts. I just don't really trust him, but he has an option left, so he can maybe setup in Rochester. I would expect DeVries to be slightly better than Swarzak in that role, actually. I was a bit taken aback by how cheap it actually was this way. And I think I actually am $7 million high and should have started out with $60.25 million after paying for 1/2 of Morneau's contract. Carson was the last guy on this roster . . . I didn't really know who else to start the season with. Carson is the guy who would be blocking guys if in Rochester, though. I want to see Arcia and Hicks in AAA for a bit next year before thinking about trading Span or Revere.

Why Slama over Gutierrez!? Something about how their stats compare in the minors, maybe?

Also, Mike Zunino is murdering the ball. Up to AA now.

I would have liked the Twins to take Nick Wittgren from Purdue instead of Lee Mazzilli in the 9th round. Wittgren dominated rookie ball and is up to A ball now.

Soon it will be time to actually get serious about next year (imagine being a Cubs fan). Maybe a title like Dr. StrangeGlove, or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb of the 2012 Twins Season would be most appropriate here. An early blueprint for 2013: Trade Justin Morneau (Oakland, Texas, Tampa Bay would seem to be potential teams for this trade) for pitching prospects (hopefully at least one in AA or AAA) or even an arbitration-eligible pitcher. Maybe include paying for half of that $14 million left on Morneau's contract to sweeten the deal. Add in Anthony Swarzak to give pitching and Bigfoot back. Sign Shaun Marcum for 4 years and $50 million (12.5 per). Try to sign Scott Baker to a one-year deal worth $2 million base and another $6 million in incentives. If he doesn't want to agree to something like that, he should leave. Say goodbye to Matt Capps, Carl Pavano, and Alexi Casilla. Option, DFA, or outright Drew Butera, Alex Burnett, Jeff Gray, Kyle Waldrop/Carlos Gutierrez, Tyler Robertson, and three of: Manship, Deduno, Walters, Vasquez, Hernandez (the other two are fourth and fifth starters initially). Let Rochester be happy with Nick Blackburn. $67.25 (keeping half of Morneau's salary) plus $12 million plus 2-8 million equals $81.25-87.25 million. Off the 40-man, then: Morneau, Capps, Gray, Butera, Swarzak, Waldrop or Gutierrez, and two of Deduno, Manship, Walters, and Vasquez. On the 40-man, then: Marcum, Baker, Walters, Hicks, Herrmann, Pinto, Hermsen, Slama, pitcher acquired in Morneau trade, and potentially Vasquez. With arbitration players, the payroll jumps too $90 million if Baker performs at a high level. I will let that stand for what it's worth. Clearly if Baker only earns that $2 million, another starting pitcher could be added and payroll would still drop from 2012 (there was a lot tied up in Morneau, Pavano, Baker, Capps, and Liriano). Starting rotation in April: Marcum Diamond Hendriks (yes) Baker or Deduno or Walters or Vasquez or Manship LR: DeVries MI: Guerra MI: Oliveros/Fien MI: Slama SU: Duensing SU: Burton CL: Perkins (or flip Burton and Perkins) Position players (and keeping that OF situation as is . . . ) Span CF Revere RF Mauer C Willingham LF Doumit DH Plouffe 3B Parmelee 1B Dozier 2B Florimon SS Carroll Herrmann Mastroianni Carson In Rochester: Gibson Bromberg Hermsen Deduno or Walters or Vasquez or Manship Hicks Escobar Arcia Benson Colabello Tosoni or Bigley Romero Butera (if he clears waivers, Lehmann otherwise) Ramirez, Chang, Burroughs, etc. In NBR: SP acquired for Morneau Stuifbergen etc. Gibson, the pitcher acquired for Morneau, Hermsen, and Bromberg could all take over the other two spots in the rotation, or all three if Hendriks falls apart next year. My thinking is that the Twins are an 80 win team next year without the addition of Marcum and the improvement of Hendriks, Parmelee, and Dozier (which one would think has to come in 2013). And Baker, Arcia, Hicks, and whoever is the SP acquired for Morneau are the x factors that could push them to over 90 wins. Some more notes: Hopefully personnel decisions are not made based on September and ST performances like they were this year. That time could be used to figure out how the MI plays out for next year, but hopefully not much more (I predict Florimon at SS and Dozier at 2B when Dozier comes back up in September). The pitching situation is not as egregious as people are making it out to be. First of all, when the correct decision is finally made about Duensing, the bullpen is anchored pretty well with him, Burton, and Perkins. Gray won't be back and Burnett has an option (and he just has to regress, right?). I don't like Swarzak for a variety of reasons and think DeVries should be rewarded. Free Anthony Slama, and then figure out the last two spots (with preference for Oliveros, Fien, and Guerra). Second, 2012 was a trial run for a number of pitchers, and aside from Hendriks, all of the AAA guys performed well. The disaster that opened the 2012 will not be repeated. Excluding Blackburn, Marquis, half-Pavano, and half-Liriano will go a long way in 2013. Some optimism abounds here, but overall the 2012 system improved quite a bit from a year ago. A 70-win total in 2012 (that might be optimistic itself) covers up the fact that the organization improved from the ground up this year. The problem was that the top faltered on many fronts, and strange inconsistencies in personnel decisions (treatment of Parmelee vs. Dozier, for instance) had negative impacts. While I said last year that I was looking forward to the Twins 2012 season, when I say the same thing about the 2013 season, I won't be lying.

Soon it will be time to actually get serious about next year (imagine being a Cubs fan). Maybe a title like Dr. StrangeGlove, or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb of the 2012 Twins Season would be most appropriate here. An early blueprint for 2013: Trade Justin Morneau (Oakland, Texas, Tampa Bay would seem to be potential teams for this trade) for pitching prospects (hopefully at least one in AA or AAA) or even an arbitration-eligible pitcher. Maybe include paying for half of that $14 million left on Morneau's contract to sweeten the deal. Add in Anthony Swarzak to give pitching and Bigfoot back. Sign Shaun Marcum for 4 years and $50 million (12.5 per). Try to sign Scott Baker to a one-year deal worth $2 million base and another $6 million in incentives. If he doesn't want to agree to something like that, he should leave. Say goodbye to Matt Capps, Carl Pavano, and Alexi Casilla. Option, DFA, or outright Drew Butera, Alex Burnett, Jeff Gray, Kyle Waldrop/Carlos Gutierrez, Tyler Robertson, and three of: Manship, Deduno, Walters, Vasquez, Hernandez (the other two are fourth and fifth starters initially). Let Rochester be happy with Nick Blackburn. $67.25 (keeping half of Morneau's salary) plus $12 million plus 2-8 million equals $81.25-87.25 million. Off the 40-man, then: Morneau, Capps, Gray, Butera, Swarzak, Waldrop or Gutierrez, and two of Deduno, Manship, Walters, and Vasquez. On the 40-man, then: Marcum, Baker, Walters, Hicks, Herrmann, Pinto, Hermsen, Slama, pitcher acquired in Morneau trade, and potentially Vasquez. With arbitration players, the payroll jumps too $90 million if Baker performs at a high level. I will let that stand for what it's worth. Clearly if Baker only earns that $2 million, another starting pitcher could be added and payroll would still drop from 2012 (there was a lot tied up in Morneau, Pavano, Baker, Capps, and Liriano). Starting rotation in April: Marcum Diamond Hendriks (yes) Baker or Deduno or Walters or Vasquez or Manship LR: DeVries MI: Guerra MI: Oliveros/Fien MI: Slama SU: Duensing SU: Burton CL: Perkins (or flip Burton and Perkins) Position players (and keeping that OF situation as is . . . ) Span CF Revere RF Mauer C Willingham LF Doumit DH Plouffe 3B Parmelee 1B Dozier 2B Florimon SS Carroll Herrmann Mastroianni Carson In Rochester: Gibson Bromberg Hermsen Deduno or Walters or Vasquez or Manship Hicks Escobar Arcia Benson Colabello Tosoni or Bigley Romero Butera (if he clears waivers, Lehmann otherwise) Ramirez, Chang, Burroughs, etc. In NBR: SP acquired for Morneau Stuifbergen etc. Gibson, the pitcher acquired for Morneau, Hermsen, and Bromberg could all take over the other two spots in the rotation, or all three if Hendriks falls apart next year. My thinking is that the Twins are an 80 win team next year without the addition of Marcum and the improvement of Hendriks, Parmelee, and Dozier (which one would think has to come in 2013). And Baker, Arcia, Hicks, and whoever is the SP acquired for Morneau are the x factors that could push them to over 90 wins. Some more notes: Hopefully personnel decisions are not made based on September and ST performances like they were this year. That time could be used to figure out how the MI plays out for next year, but hopefully not much more (I predict Florimon at SS and Dozier at 2B when Dozier comes back up in September). The pitching situation is not as egregious as people are making it out to be. First of all, when the correct decision is finally made about Duensing, the bullpen is anchored pretty well with him, Burton, and Perkins. Gray won't be back and Burnett has an option (and he just has to regress, right?). I don't like Swarzak for a variety of reasons and think DeVries should be rewarded. Free Anthony Slama, and then figure out the last two spots (with preference for Oliveros, Fien, and Guerra). Second, 2012 was a trial run for a number of pitchers, and aside from Hendriks, all of the AAA guys performed well. The disaster that opened the 2012 will not be repeated. Excluding Blackburn, Marquis, half-Pavano, and half-Liriano will go a long way in 2013. Some optimism abounds here, but overall the 2012 system improved quite a bit from a year ago. A 70-win total in 2012 (that might be optimistic itself) covers up the fact that the organization improved from the ground up this year. The problem was that the top faltered on many fronts, and strange inconsistencies in personnel decisions (treatment of Parmelee vs. Dozier, for instance) had negative impacts. While I said last year that I was looking forward to the Twins 2012 season, when I say the same thing about the 2013 season, I won't be lying.

It's possible that he doesn't get injured, or at least as much, if he stayed in the Twins organization. Or . . . given how the Twins medical staff is . . . he may never have thrown another ball!

I feel quite sorry for him. His season has a ripple effect through the system (trading Span or Revere, and/or other OF prospects could have occurred if Benson had repeated AA numbers at AAA this season).

Good to see Pinto homer after a MUCH-deserved promotion. What do guys think about his defense as a catcher? GREAT to see Stuifbergen pitching well. Too many pitchers with lost seasons or 3/4 seasons. I have much more confidence in the long-term success of Stuifbergen than I do of Hermsen.