Shane Wahl

Boom. This is exactly correct. Hicks is Span's replacement (and upgrade *crosses fingers*).

1. Mauer 2. Sano 3. Willingham 4. Morneau 5. Hicks 6. Span 7. Revere 8. Arcia 9. Buxton 10. Parmelee/Rosario Note not a pitcher in the bunch, though Berrios would be soon.

By the way, rotating 7 (Willingham,Span, Revere, Morneau, Doumit, Parmelee, and Mauer) guys in 6 spots is not totally difficult, esp. if Willingham moves to right field, primarily. Always having one of them available on the bench would be nice, actually. Signing two FA good SP pitchers for $25 million a year total would be one way to get around trading anybody . . .

I am not totally comfortable with Revere being a true replacement. That average has to be higher than .300 if he is going to be a leadoff batter. For the millionth time, if I knew that Gardy would move Mauer up to the 2nd spot in the lineup instead of putting Carroll, Escobar, et al. there, I would be fine with trading Span. Still seems that the most obvious move is trading Morneau for pitching. Very little if any drop in defense, and likely only some drop in power.

I could have told you that before the season began and before Capps was signed to that ridiculous contract.

The lineup was at its best with Span, Revere, Mauer, Willingham, Morneau, Doumit, Plouffe, Dozier, Carroll. There is no disputing that.

Interesting. Clearly they don't really pay attention to detail. Kepler has climbed dramatically. I will say that giving props to higher level players makes sense so I can see how Kepler could be lower, but that doesn't explain Arcia's placement . . . I am probably going to put him ahead of Buxton for now (AA is a LONG way from Rookie ball). If Rosario sticks as a second baseman, forget about it. He will be one of the top 3 second basemen in baseball by 2016.

I don't consider him a RF, no. I cannot believe this approach they are taking with him. This year was just WEIRD in the way he was treated. Anyway, his long-term future is not in RF. It's at 1B and DH. If things go well in the system, Parmelee will be a BENCH player (Sano moving to first . . . . ) or a DH.

The best case scenario, in my view, is getting a flip-flop of Willingham and Revere defensively. And keeping all three OFs until it is truly time for Hicks and Arcia (and hopefully Benson). That time is not here quite yet. I am scared, however, that Span will be traded, Morneau kept, and Parmelee made into a right fielder. So preposterous. Parmelee has no future in the OF.

Another great post. I agree with all of it and am equally perplexed by the Juan Pierre comp being a negative thing . . .

Boom. Very true. I do actually think that a Span-Benson-Hicks outfield would be optimal, but I don't want both Willingham and Arcia to be traded. Clearly there are big questions about Benson now anyway. A Willingham-Revere-Hicks outfield is pretty good (with Arcia DHing quite a bit, but also Willingham as well). I do think that trading Willingham at the deadline is a good option if (assuming Span or Revere is traded) if if all three of Benson, Hicks, and Arcia are ready. I would love to see 2013 end with a "youth movement."

By the beginning of 2014 hopefully both will have been traded (Benson, Hicks, Arcia)

AHAHAHAHAHA! Every line is pretty damn funny.

Oh my GOD I agree. That site's comments are getting close to YouTube's comments in terms of barbarity.

I wouldn't know. During my grade 9-12 years I was home schooled by my crazy great uncle who collected porceline dolls and antique blow torches. Thanks for some levity after that!!!

Butera cannot be on the roster next year, much less catch 50+ games!!!! Mauer's value as a 2/5-1/2 time catcher is still good, but that value diminishes as a full time RF. That bench is pretty bad. I agree with your MI 100% though. I would like Carson or Ramirez on the bench, but replace Butera with Herrmann and Escobar with somebody. No sub-.600 OPS anymore on the roster, please.

Brock is exactly right. And the Twins should trade Morneau instead (similar return).

Having studied statistics in school (I was a math major) I know that statistics can be made to say just about anything you want. They can be a helpful tool, but I would never trust them completely in making decisions. They are an aid to the decision-making process, but not the sole (or even the most important) aid. About the article, well written and cogently argued. That said, how many more "Free Slama" articles are we going to have? At what point does this become dead-horse-beating? So what distortion is being made about Slama's statistics? No one is saying that they should be "trusted completely" but rather that perhaps we should be able to get some more Slama statistics . . . as in his major league stats.

Yeah, there are over 20+ potential OF prospects. I think guys like Bigley, Pimentel, Ortiz, and Morales can be added in to trade packages to make them more appealing (for instance, a Morneau, Swarzak, Ortiz package might be appealing to teams who have SP depth).

It really isn't a curious kind of situation. This organization is stuck in the 20th century. It believes in seeing-eye scouting predominantly. Statistics "lie" is clearly the mantra.

Using Liriano as an example is ridiculous. First, that trade was stupid. Second, Morneau has more value than Liriano. Morneau's numbers are good this year and he has been healthy most of the year. .800+ OPS and 25 homers is going to be appealing to a lot of teams in the AL who need 1B/DH types. The treatment of RF this year has been bizarre from start to finish. The Twins were at their best this year when Span and Revere were each around .350-.360 OBP at the top of the order (and Plouffe was healthy and hitting). It was as though they understood, for once, that getting on base is the key to offensive success. Now take out Span and sub in a MI with a .320 OBP (at best) next year . . .

I don't like it. First, that OF will not be good defensively. Poor range in two spots and average-to-poor arms all over. I also wouldn't get to excited about Escobar. He has no track record of offensive skill.

You are possibly very right, and that is distressing. That OF will be significantly below average. I just don't get it. Why not ship Morneau?

From my blog spot awhile ago. Soon it will be time to actually get serious about next year (imagine being a Cubs fan). Maybe a title like Dr. StrangeGlove, or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb of the 2012 Twins Season would be most appropriate here. An early blueprint for 2013: Trade Justin Morneau (Oakland, Texas, Tampa Bay would seem to be potential teams for this trade) for pitching prospects (hopefully at least one in AA or AAA) or even an arbitration-eligible pitcher. Maybe include paying for half of that $14 million left on Morneau's contract to sweeten the deal. Add in Anthony Swarzak to give pitching and Bigfoot back. Sign Shaun Marcum for 4 years and $50 million (12.5 per). Try to sign Scott Baker to a one-year deal worth $2 million base and another $6 million in incentives. If he doesn't want to agree to something like that, he should leave. Say goodbye to Matt Capps, Carl Pavano, and Alexi Casilla. Option, DFA, or outright Drew Butera, Alex Burnett, Jeff Gray, Kyle Waldrop/Carlos Gutierrez, Tyler Robertson, and three of: Manship, Deduno, Walters, Vasquez, Hernandez (the other two are fourth and fifth starters initially). Let Rochester be happy with Nick Blackburn. $67.25 (keeping half of Morneau's salary) plus $12 million plus 2-8 million equals $81.25-87.25 million. Off the 40-man, then: Morneau, Capps, Gray, Butera, Swarzak, Waldrop or Gutierrez, and two of Deduno, Manship, Walters, and Vasquez. On the 40-man, then: Marcum, Baker, Walters, Hicks, Herrmann, Pinto, Hermsen, Slama, pitcher acquired in Morneau trade, and potentially Vasquez. With arbitration players, the payroll jumps too $90 million if Baker performs at a high level. I will let that stand for what it's worth. Clearly if Baker only earns that $2 million, another starting pitcher could be added and payroll would still drop from 2012 (there was a lot tied up in Morneau, Pavano, Baker, Capps, and Liriano). Starting rotation in April: Marcum Diamond Hendriks (yes) Baker or Deduno or Walters or Vasquez or Manship LR: DeVries MI: Guerra MI: Oliveros/Fien MI: Slama SU: Duensing SU: Burton CL: Perkins (or flip Burton and Perkins) Position players (and keeping that OF situation as is . . . ) Span CF Revere RF Mauer C Willingham LF Doumit DH Plouffe 3B Parmelee 1B Dozier 2B Florimon SS Carroll Herrmann Mastroianni Carson In Rochester: Gibson Bromberg Hermsen Deduno or Walters or Vasquez or Manship Hicks Escobar Arcia Benson Colabello Tosoni or Bigley Romero Butera (if he clears waivers, Lehmann otherwise) Ramirez, Chang, Burroughs, etc. In NBR: SP acquired for Morneau Stuifbergen etc. Gibson, the pitcher acquired for Morneau, Hermsen, and Bromberg could all take over the other two spots in the rotation, or all three if Hendriks falls apart next year. My thinking is that the Twins are an 80 win team next year without the addition of Marcum and the improvement of Hendriks, Parmelee, and Dozier (which one would think has to come in 2013). And Baker, Arcia, Hicks, and whoever is the SP acquired for Morneau are the x factors that could push them to over 90 wins. Some more notes: Hopefully personnel decisions are not made based on September and ST performances like they were this year. That time could be used to figure out how the MI plays out for next year, but hopefully not much more (I predict Florimon at SS and Dozier at 2B when Dozier comes back up in September). The pitching situation is not as egregious as people are making it out to be. First of all, when the correct decision is finally made about Duensing, the bullpen is anchored pretty well with him, Burton, and Perkins. Gray won't be back and Burnett has an option (and he just has to regress, right?). I don't like Swarzak for a variety of reasons and think DeVries should be rewarded. Free Anthony Slama, and then figure out the last two spots (with preference for Oliveros, Fien, and Guerra). Second, 2012 was a trial run for a number of pitchers, and aside from Hendriks, all of the AAA guys performed well. The disaster that opened the 2012 will not be repeated. Excluding Blackburn, Marquis, half-Pavano, and half-Liriano will go a long way in 2013. Some optimism abounds here, but overall the 2012 system improved quite a bit from a year ago. A 70-win total in 2012 (that might be optimistic itself) covers up the fact that the organization improved from the ground up this year. The problem was that the top faltered on many fronts, and strange inconsistencies in personnel decisions (treatment of Parmelee vs. Dozier, for instance) had negative impacts. While I said last year that I was looking forward to the Twins 2012 season, when I say the same thing about the 2013 season, I won't be lying.