Shane Wahl

The thing about Dozier is that he and Bruno discovered something wrong with his swing, corrected it, and from June on he was fantastic offensively. That BA was about .213 or something until June and he hit 16 of those homers after May. Looking at the season as a whole and it all looks rather mundane, but there seems to be a legitimate correction made to his approach at the plate. I believe Parker has an article about it. It's perhaps my favorite article of TD in 2013.

I had a few friends at the game. They posted video of the best use of Journey's "Don't Stop Believing" ever. I think it was in the 10th inning. The crowd booed the part about Detroit. While singing along. Great stuff.

This is a very solid rundown. Boyd, Boer, and Michael are terrible disappointments. I think Boyd needs to stick full time in the bullpen to even have a chance at that longshot.

A question I have is: do we have information about how many "innings" guys pitch in EST and if that factors into next seasons innings limit? Otherwise, 44 innings isn't a lot to build off of if going to Cedar Rapids.

I got into a little argument with someone I don't know on FB about this. He ended up saying that they should put it to a vote and that the majority would still support the name. Clearly he wasn't thinking, because clearly he set himself up for "well without that whole genocide thing, I think the numbers would be a little different." He didn't respond.

This is that awkward moment where I respond to a post about not responding to every post . . . I am not one to simple agree to disagree, so I welcome actual debate and enjoy argumentation. Sometimes argumentation leads to arriving at a truth or some truths!

I enjoyed this blog post. I agree about drafting a college starting pitcher and will use BCLSPA from now on.

How recent is this picture? He really looks like such a kid. Oh don't mind me, just need to work on my third and fourth pitches this coming year after I turn 18 . . . .

I don't advocate for Capuano being the top signing. I have him second in my "more realistic" scenario because there is no way the Twins are going to buy two better pitchers. In my real scenario, he is the third signing. I am not sure what is wrong with that, especially given the fact that in that scenario I am trading away Correia and mention trading Capuano at the deadline if he has a good year!

Yeah, I just saw that about Hughes. I find it to be a bizarre prediction. The guys here have predicted 3 years and $30 million. Mlbtraderumors is rather low in all of the predictions, especially given the new TV money. Cruz is 33, inept in the outfield, and is about the opposite of the kind of guy I would want to add to the clubhouse.

If you have some sort of post 2014 plan that involves Willingham and Doumit, then go ahead. Otherwise, paying and playing declining players is obviously silly and ridiculous. Any value in return is good. And it also gives several hundred more plate appearances to players potentially in the future for the Twins? Imagine that?

So, is *anyone* going to ever answer my question? Name another player who skipped AAA and then was asked to be the leadoff hitter? Also, Hick's OPS after April is about .700. WHY waste any more time with filler? Presley in CF and Willingham in left? That's the plan?

Nelson Cruz will not be had for 2 and 26, nor will Hughes for 2 and 20. Feldman, yes. Also, Nelson Cruz is an abomination in the field. FYI.

So how do you successfully spend $70 million if that is the agenda (I said if I were the GM, no the owner)? There are 29 other teams competing. It seems difficult to throw that kind of money out unless you have LeBron-Bosh-Wade kind of collusion. For $70 million I guess you can get Santana and Jimenez, and then Ellsbury or Choo plus Morales. But really? How likely is that unless they all sat down together and were convinced that *together* they make the Twins viable. Anyway, I see zero possibility of this team contending for the playoffs. That isn't the point. The point is to move toward 2015.

I don't think I have ever watched so many highlights from game as I have from that game 163. It was just crazy, especially the 6-3 double play with Cabrera and Nathan's reaction to it.

Thanks, Jeremy. Given that I think the Twins have good trade value in their current relievers, I do think that they should protect the next group of guys. Maybe this involves risking Vargas. I like Achter, Watts, Oliveros, and Ibarra. Anyway, Polanco is good. I still want to know what SS potential he has. Niko isn't performing as well and might be a third baseman anyway?

And this is weird for me to say such things about Parmelee given that I said last year and the year before that he was a bench player on a good team. This isn't a good team though. Ultimately: Hicks, RF Mauer, 1B (come on) Buxton, CF Sano, 3B Arcia, DH Dozier, 2B Rosario, LF primarily (for whatever time he spends with the Twins in 2014) Pinto, C Florimon, SS Is pretty exciting even if there are going to be growing pains. I would rather get some of those growing pains out in 2014 and not wait for 2015.

Ultimately, a platoon with Parmelee and Plouffe shouldn't be out of the question. I guess that would mean Hicks in left after Buxton arrives. That's not terrible given the range and a big left field. I am still not totally convinced that Parmelee doesn't have Lyle Overbay type potential.

Haha. I think the Yankees would take a letter saying "congratulations, you got rid of A-Rod" and they would pay the salary.

Oops. That is a fair point and an omission--I came up with the second scenario first and then didn't make the correction in the first one. Man, Deduno makes me think about trading Correia more and more. But, in this case, Deduno would be the fifth starter. I don't know what to do with Diamond and Worley. Worley isn't good, but good lord he was just terrible last year.

Yes, exactly. And I still don't have an answer from anyone as to how many players have ever skipped AAA and then been the leadoff man on opening day. Or in recent memory. Whatever.

I understand that the value might increase for those two (more than likely, but I still wouldn't actually bet on it), but in the meantime they are clogging the roster as non-contributors post-deadline. Also, that money saved now could be . . . nevermind.

Yeah Jones is imploding in almost every appearance.

I know that paying some salary is not realistic for this team to do, but I would do it and some of those teams might be interested. I tried to go top end of the realistic prospects (these guys, aside from Blach who is probably 250 or so overall, are 400-600 overall). And all but one of them is either A+ or AA. The alternative to not going big is to go with either Kazmir or Haren with Hughes. And probably for quite similar years and money. That's acceptable to me too. There's little doubt in my mind that the Twins will get one of those guys, and Hughes makes the most sense. Capuano is about an average #4 starter. He's my Correia replacement, but with more strikeout capability. In the first scenario, the two years is just based on the idea that I think it is fairly silly for the Twins to sign a guy for one year at all if he is one of two FA pickups . . . because they are just in the same mess again next year. If the Twins sign three FA starters, then Capuano at one year and would be either disposable (from the rotation) or if good, tradeable at the deadline or before. He also goes back and forth between being above average and below average and in 2013 he was below average . . . In many ways he is an asset that isn't too expensive and could be deadline fodder. With regard to Ervin, the vast majority of pitchers are going to have one bad year out of five, and many will have two bad years out of five. Only real aces escape one bad year out of five.

I will proceed in two parts. The first one is a realistic prediction for how the Twins might navigate in this offseason. The second is what I think I might do if I were actually the GM. First scenario: Trade Ryan Doumit to the Texas Rangers for RH SP Nick Martinez. Justification: unless the Rangers strike gold and land McCann, resign AJ, Soto, Murphy, and Cruz, and refrain from trading anyone else, it looks like a cheap DH/C/RF option with a potentially good enough bat might be something the Rangers need. Nick Martinez ranks around 15-20 in the Rangers system and has a career 3.30 ERA in 327.1 minor league innings, compiling an 8.1/2.7 K/BB rate, reaching AA in 2013 (which is where he would start in 2014). The Twins are in need of some SP support between Gibson, Meyer, and May on one end, and Berrios, Sulbaran, Stewart, Thorpe, etc. on the other end. Martinez would join Baxendale and Duffey in that spot, and is probably better than both. Sign RH SP Phil Hughes to a 3 year, $39 million deal. (13 a year) Sign LH SP Chris Capuano to a 2 year, $15 million deal. (7.5 a year) Starting rotation: Kevin Correia Phil Hughes Chris Capuano Kyle Gibson Scott Diamond/Vance Worley Bullpen: Send Ryan Pressly to Rochester to get back to starting. LR: Swarzak/Diamond/Worley MR: Tonkin/Swarzak MR: Thielbar MR: Burton SU: Duensing SU: Fien CL: Perkins Lineup: vs. RH Dozier, 2B Mauer, 1B Arcia, RF Willingham, DH Plouffe, 3B Hicks, CF Pinto/Herrmann C Presley, LF Florimon, SS (some Escobar action here against righties) vs. LH Hicks, CF Dozier, 2B Mauer, 1B Willingham, DH Plouffe, 3B Pinto, C Arcia, RF Presley, LF Florimon, SS Bench: Herrmann, C/LF/RF Parmelee, 1B/RF Escobar, Util infield Chris Colabello 1B/RF (Deibinson Romero next option in AAA for bench role) Sano should be up fairly quickly. May, Meyer, Rosario, and perhaps Buxton to follow by the All-Star break at the latest for the first two, and September for the second two). Sano joins the team and Trevor Plouffe moves to platoon with Presley, and someone (Colabello, probably) gets optioned. I am then looking to *unload* that bullpen as long as the replacements are doing well in AAA. I am thinking Burton, Fien, Swarzak, and Duensing flipped at the deadline or before. Achter, Watts, Oliveros, and Ibarra could be suitable replacements on the roster, with Tonkin (likely) moving to the setup role for Perkins. Trading Doumit and adding those two free agents would make for a rather modest $76.5 million payroll. * * * The second scenario involves being more proactive, unloading some more payroll before adding much more back. Trades: 1. Josh Willingham and Casey Fien to Baltimore for RHP Parker Bridwell and LHP Lex Rutledge. Justification: The Orioles are going to want one bat and to bolster their bullpen. They do it here for very cheap, especially since I would pay part of Willingham's salary if necessary. Bridwell is young with great stuff. His numbers are very Trevor Mayesque at this point, but he is still figuring it out. He would start in A+ in 2014. Rutledge would start in A+ as well, and might be worth taking a look as a starter again. He was bad early in his career there, and was very good as a reliever in 2013, but he does have a good curveball to go with a decent fastball and that could mean for more experimentation this year, perhaps splitting time and get over 100 innings this year. 2. Kevin Correia and Jared Burton to San Francisco for LHP Ty Blach and RHP Keury Mella. Justification: The Giants want A: a solid starting pitcher, and B: a solid MR/SU man. For $8.75 million, they get both of those things here (or less, I would pay some salary to make this happen). Blach is a LH starter who ranks around 10 or so on Giants' prospect lists. He would start at AA in 2014. Mella is very young and missed a lot of bats in rookie ball. He is a RH starter and would start in A- in 2014. 3. Sam Deduno and Anthony Swarzak to Philadelphia for LF/RF/1B Cameron Perkins and RHP Jeb Stefan. Justification: the Phillies pitching situation is a mess and here is a way for them to improve it for $1.5 or so million. Lannan and Kendrick are not very good, Cloyd needs more time in the minors, and they could try Swarzak out as a starter. Deduno and Swarzak would be 4-5 after Lee, Hamels, and Pettibone. Perkins posted a .790 OPS in A+ in 2013. He's a RH bat with doubles power and plays corner OF and 1B. He would fill an organizational void in the OF in the middle of the system and would immediately be a better option than Danny Ortiz, Angel Morales, etc. moving forward. Stefan pitched fairly well in A-ball in 2013 and would start the system in A+ starting for the Miracle or developing into a setup man. 4. Ryan Doumit to the Texas Rangers for RHP Nick Martinez. Justification: see first scenario. In all of these cases, the Twins should think about paying part of the 2014 salary to lure these teams to make these deals. Let's just say that salary contribution totals $8 million. The guys dealt with substantial contacts totals about $20, so this amounts to a saving of $12 million, dropping payroll to $47.5 million or so. Try to sign: Masahiro Tanaka for a $55 million post and a 6 year, $60 million deal. FAIL (Yankees will win): Sign Ervin Santana for a 5 year, $85 million deal. Sign Phil Hughes to a 3 year, $39 million deal. Sign Chris Capuano to a one year, $8 million deal (and hope for deadline trade this way) With Santana, Hughes, and Capuano, this adds $38 million, meaning an $85.5 million payroll. Rotation: Santana Hughes Capuano Gibson Diamond/Worley Bullpen: Send Ryan Pressly to AAA to become a starter again. LR: Diamond/Worley, or Hendriks, or Albers MR: Watts MR: Oliveros MR: Thielbar MR: Duensing SU: Tonkin CL: Perkins Lineup: vs. RH Dozier, 2B Mauer, 1B Arcia, DH (but with OF time) Parmelee, RF Plouffe, 3B Hicks, CF Pinto/Herrmann, C Presley, LF Florimon, SS vs. LH Hicks, CF Dozier, 2B Mauer, 1B Plouffe, RF Pinto, C Colabello/Arcia DH Romero, 3B Presley, LF Florimon, SS Bench: Herrmann, C/LF/RF Colabello, 1B/RF Escobar, Util INF Romero, 3B/1B I understand how this lineup looks, and I understand the animosity towards Parmelee and Plouffe, and the craziness that appears to be involving Colabello, Romero, Pinto, and Herrmann in such a meaningful way. Moving Plouffe to RF, however, makes room for Sano to play 3B when he arrives and to have both Sano and Plouffe in the lineup against lefties. Sano would replace either Colabello or Romero on the roster. Rosario and Buxton would follow eventually. I would definitely give time for some Dozier at SS experimentation, but if Rosario is up by mid-season, some combo of 2B-LF, RF, and DH for the remainder of 2014 isn't going to hurt. And by the end of the season this might mean a Rosario-Buxton-Hicks OF. Willingham and Doumit have zero future for the Twins, so I see no reason bothering with them at all this year. Maybe the Plouffes and Parmelees don't have a future either, but this is a maybe . . . and in a rebuild, I will take maybes over definite no-future types. The Mauer-Buxton-Sano core needs its players around it. By season's end, I would expect a rotation of Santana, Hughes, Gibson, Meyer, and May. The Twins would end 2014 with five starting pitchers who have been top 100 prospects.