IndianaTwin

Like others, I’ll “like” this post and do the same with posts 87 and 90 as statements of affirmation. Perhaps you’re a professional mediator in inviting us to recenter and find the places of commonality? (And wouldn’t it be great if I’d have been able to say that I’m affirming posts 87 and 91 — now that would be a great omen!) So I’ll say a hearty “amen” to No. 1. And as an optimist by nature, who prefers to look ahead over looking back, I’ll say that part of what of what I like about the offseason is that I would nuance No. 2 to say “That season could still get even better, because they have still have the time and money to be opportunistic, both in the remaining 2.5 months and during the season.” And then I’ll add a particular affirmation to the “One of the fun things about Twins Daily...” sentence.

Do you have a sense of what that would look like? Looking at the MLBTR arbitration projections and trying to find comparibles, I wondered about a $5MM-$10MM-$15MM progression in his three arb years, for a total of $30MM. Is that on target? And if so, would a fourth year of $20MM to continuing that procession make sense? If so, that’s $50MM/4. It’s not completely frontloaded, but does $10MM-$12MM-$13MM-$15MM fit the bill? That would only buy out one year of free agency, but it would keep in the rotation for four years. And on his side, it still gets him to free agency at age 30, with time for a much larger contract. Is that close?

Well, I think we’re going to need to disagree on our perceptions of these guys. I’ll be VERY surprised if none of these guys are productive this season. At 40, Hill is OLD. But there are a whole lot of guys in the majors who are going to be productive at age 34 (Bailey). Clippard seems old, but he’s the only guy in the majors who has pitched at least 60 innings in relief each of the last 10 years. And nearly all of those have been positive years. I’m glad to take my chances on him doing it again. And look at it this way. The average age of a major league is right at 28. Given that by definition a free agent needs at least six years of MLB season, it’s very difficult to get a young player as a free agent. At best, you can get an average aged player.

True, but very few, if any, other teams had only one starter under contract at that time (or even just two, given that we could have picked up Perez’s option). In that area at least, I’d argue that they had the most to lose of anyone if they didn’t have a good offseason, and I’d argue that as a result, they’ve improved more than anyone in that regard.

Thanks for the correction.

And thanks to you as well, both for your original questions and for this response. At the risk of being insensitive, my dad was fond of saying that there’s more than one way to (conduct feline taxidermy). While I think my solution is better than your solution (or I wouldn’t have typed it!), the reality is that either approach has the potential to succeed. That’s why they play the games, right? Part of my response to you on the Cole preference is that I prefer to spread the risk, and I really don’t like the thought of an eight or nine-year commitment to a pitcher. To your first one, I’m guilty as charged as being high on Odorizzi and Pineda (more so than on Bailey, but I’m reasonably bullish on him as well). If there’s one “I told y’all so” I could claim from the last several years, it would be the decision to give Pineda the two-year deal while still rehabbing from TJS. I was really on board with that one from the beginning. So in being high on those guys, I’d nudge our guys up your second list. For example, I’d take Berrios over Woodruff and might even put Odo and Pineda on his level. I honestly don’t know Hill that well, but some people on these threads are certainly high on him. Or as another example, Verlander is a Hall of Famer and still pitching like one, but the dude turns 37 next month. It doesn’t seem like it’s going to ever happen, but he’s got to come back to the pack sometime, doesn’t he? And as one of my fantasy keepers, I hope Kershaw gives me another Kershaw-like HOF season, but Berrios and Odo both had better fWARs last year and he’s got a lot of innings on his arm. By contrast, Berrios is entering his age 26 season. It’s not an impossibility that he takes another step forward and enters the Cy Young conversation, in his career year if not making it an annual thing. That to say, it’s not unrealistic to think that he could at least narrow the gap versus a Verlander. And my penchant toward spreading the risk lends itself to a valuing of depth. I honestly don’t know Hill’s pedigree that well, but some folks on TD are high enough on him to say that when he’s healthy he can be a stud. But while strength at the top is a sign of “impact pitching,” I think of strength at the bottom as another sign. Fangraphs ranked Berrios as No. 17 among guys with 100+ innings, so I think of that as basically being an average No. 1. But it had Odo at No. 20, which I think of as a slightly below average No. 1. He was an all-star, after all. And many of us were noting that Pineda was our best pitcher for an extended period as well. And if Hill is essentially right there as well, that’s the potential big-time depth. I don’t like the whole “this guy’s a No. 1, but this guy’s a No. 3,” because it’s so subjective based on what each of our perceptions of what a No. 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 is. But for the purpose of this I’ll say that while we may not have one of the few No. 1+ Garrett Cole-type aces, a playoff rotation of some combination of Berrios, Odo, Hill, and Pineda could give us something like a 1, 1-, 2+, 2. Without looking at the current depth charts, it’s hard to think of many teams that could roll out the someone that matches the weakest of that quartet in Game 4, which counts as much as Game 1. And that doesn’t even include Bailey. As noted above, I’m not as high on him as on Bailey, but he actually had a better fWAR than Pineda. Best case scenario, that gives us five guys that pitch like No. 2s or better! To me, that’s also impact. Great discussion, Oxtung, but I really have to hit the sack. But it was a crappy week of work, and it’s a whole lot more fun to be part of the great community.

With the added benefit of some cost certainty as they make other long-term decisions. Not to mention that there’s a CBA in the works. What if a new agreement would give him the option to be a free agent in 2021? Then you’ve bought out two years of free agency.

Yeah, that was my thought on the $3MM option as well. Has anyone ever calculated what an average buyout is in terms of percentage of the total. It can’t be as high as 21 percent, can it? Have you seen the 6/9/12 progression reported, or is it just a guess? If the latter, it seems like a good guess to me.

I’ll respond by reframing your question a bit: Has the team gotten better than the playoff roster? Personally, I’d give it a pretty tentative “yes,” but that’s at least partially dependent on Gibson being hurt at the time and Pineda being suspended. With health and no suspensions, our playoff rotation would be Berrios-Odo-Hill-Pineda (or Bailey) in some order instead of Berrios-Bullpen-Odo-Bullpen. But that’s a tentative “yes,” and I can see what seems to be your suggestion that at best they’ve stayed the same. With the presence of Arraez, I’m more concerned about the loss of Cron than Schoop, which makes me wonder — if they would have known they were going to miss out on the higher-profile pitchers and have as little money committed as they do, might they have tendered a deal to Cron after all. On the other hand, they did still have the opportunity to sign him up until Dec. 21 when he signed with the Tigers, so maybe they didn’t value him as highly as I do. However, I frame the offseason evaluation question by asking, “Is the team better than it was on Nov. 1?” With Odo having the ability to opt out of the QO, they didn’t control his rights. They didn’t have Gibson’s or Pineda’s rights. They had one proven major league starter on their Nov. 1 roster. I won’t repeat my points from post No. 55 above, but with the additions of Odo, Pineda, Bailey, and Hill to the Nov. 1 roster, plus Romo, Clippard, Avila, and the no-brainer decision to pick up Cruz’s option, the answer to the latter question is an unequivocal “yes” in my mind. And part of my point In giving them an “incomplete” grade is that we are actually still closer to the last day of the World Series than we are to Opening Day. True, nearly all of the low-hanging fruit, i.e. free agents that only cost us money, has been picked. However, there Is still a LOT of time to turn my “yes” into a “YES” with some under-the-radar and not-very-sexy moves that are hard to predict, but that this front office seems to excel in. There is at least one sexy move left In signing Donaldson, but I’m ambivalent on that one. The reason for my ambivalence is that I value the flexibility that they have to use the same money for multiple boring moves. That includes in-season moves. They HAVE been active in mid-season the past several years — they just have been as bold as some folks would like. But I also wonder if having such a low payroll at this time might lead to them being considerably more aggressive if the situation calls for it.

As the one who added “and Romo and Clippard” to tarheeltwinsfan’s post, I’ll take a shot. To me it’s the cumulative effect of adding four veteran starters and two veteran relievers — all of whom I think have good likelihoods of being anywhere from above-average to well-above average — to a Nov. 1 roster that had only Berrios, four or so guys with something like a dozen combined career starts, and a solid, but still fairly inexperienced bullpen. The roster on Jan. 10 looks a heck of a lot better to me than the one on Nov. 1. Another way I would phrase that is that I’ve tried to view it as adding “impact pitchING,” whereas it’s felt like many have focused on adding an “impact pitchER.” I would rather the possibility of an eventual rotation of Berrios-Odo-Pineda-Bailey-Hill, with Dobnak-Smeltzer-Thorpe-Graterol as my 6-9, than have a rotation of Cole-Berrios-Dobnak-Smeltzer-Thorpe, with Graterol and I’m not sure who else as my 6-9. Now, that said, I think they can still do more, and I’d love to see them do that. That’s why I also posted that I don’t think it’s fair to evaluate the entire offseason on Jan. 10. So for example, I’ve thought about starting a post noting that minor league signings seem to be starting. Some guys who may have thought they were going to get a major league deal are still out there. I can think of Alex Wood, Drew Smyly, Felix Hernandez, Clay Buchholz, Danny Salazar, and Taijuan Walker. I haven’t taken the time to evaluate them closely, but I’m assuming the front office has. If they do their homework and can pull off signing the best one or two of them to a minor league contract with incentive-based bonuses, I could support that. Even if one of those guys only pulls a Martin Perez and is top-notch for eight starts (i.e. until Pineda returns), that would be a bonus. And with the return of Pineda and the presence of Dobnak-Smeltzer-Thorpe-Graterol, I’d like to think that the front office would be much more likely to pull the plug if one or more of the latter guys is lights-out in Rochester and said minor-league-contract-guy turns into August/September Perez. Similarly, with only Berrios, Odo, Bailey as vets on opening day, I’d also love to see them pull off a smart trade. Folks perceive that we don’t trade any prospects, but I keep pointing back to the February trade of a Single-A shortstop for Odo as one of their biggest wins so far. With their penchant for value, that’s the type of trade I think we’re most likely to see — what another team views as a lottery pick for an under-the-radar guy that our front offices perceives as under-valued. Probably more than you asked for, Oxtung, but that’s where I’m coming from.

That’s how I read it.

Okay, I can accept disagreeIng with the statement that the offseason can’t be judged until the end of the season. But I can’t agree with calling the offseason a failure with more than two and a half months until opening day.

Edited for you.

Yes. Has anyone counted to see if they do it more frequently than other teams? It sure seems to be the case.

I was just thinking of Romero the other day, perhaps when I saw that Adalberto Mejia got DFAed this week for the fifth time in five months. Ah, the names we remember. What's up with Mark Funderburk these days? I know Romero was used exclusively as a reliever this past year, but given where we are at and that pretty much every pitcher starts spring training by only throwing an inning at a time, I hope he's still at least on the preseason Jim Kaat Award Watch list. Or at least still on the marker board in Wes' office. The chances are minute, and he's way behind the Dobnaks of the world at this point, but let's at least keep the option open to strike lightning in a bottle with a fresh start. As you note, there was a time he was highly regarded, and he's still pretty young.

Right, but what I'm asking is whether this is saying that Sano performed at a level where we missed out on approximately five outs over the course of the season compared to if we had an average 3B there? Or that he missed about 12 outs compared to having Marwin there? I recognize that it doesn't identify which specific outs he cost us over the course of the season. I'm just saying that costing us an average of less than one out per month compared to the average 3B doesn't seem like much of a cost to have a monster hitter there. I don't know if this is an accurate way to think about it, but if 4.5 earned runs over 27 outs converts to about 0.83 runs per 5 outs, that's not much.

We clearly have “impact” owners and moderators. Thank you, everyone, for the wonderful community that is great to be part of.

Is OAA a season’s total? What does It translate to in terms of runs? And even wins? For example, does this mean Sano’s -5 gives up a little less than an out per month? If that’s accurate, when I think of it that way, that doesn’t seem like much to be overly worried about. Sure, that theoretical out might open the floodgates for a four-run inning that costs the game, but if It happens when they’re up 6-0 and May strikes out the next guy to end the inning, that’s minimal effect. I wouldn’t want to sacrifice much offense anywhere for that degree of poor defense.

I think he’s talking about the lack of longevity on the front end, since his first homer didn’t come until age 26. He’s only had 11 seasons so far where he’s been over 100 games. To use Andruw Jones as someone on the opposite end of the spectrum, by the time he was 26, he had 226 homers. Give Cruz that kind of a start and we’d be having an entirely different discussion.

Yikes — thanks for summarizing these stats. I thought he ended up with above-average numbers, but I didn’t realize there were so many top 30s! It’s important that we don’t look at the 105 games and extrapolate that to having 50 percent more in each category. He actually only missed a quarter of the season. But even having a third more games to work with could lead to some impressive numbers. And I’m still not convinced that he can’t become at least an average defender if he puts in the work on that side of the ball that he seemed to put on conditioning and working with Cruz last year. He’s still got a great arm, and he comes in on the ball really well. The biggest challenge is lateral movement, but with more and more emphasis on positioning and shifts, that may lessen the effect of that weakness. Lateral movement is still important, but I’m not sure that it’s the be all and end all that it’s often been seen as in the past.

I tend to be a Bigger Hall guy, and I hate it when people say that someone only belongs in the “Hall of Very Good.” But in those terms, unfortunately, I’d have to say he’s a better fit for the “Hall of Pretty Good.” Even if he played another three years and got to 500 homers, he’d then move into the “played most of his games as a DH” and have that as a strike against him. My hunch is he’ll get 8-10 percent his first year and then fall off the ballot in a couple years. But don’t get me wrong — I’ll gladly have him bat cleanup for us this year. And thanks for the article. HOF articles are often fun reads.

Interesting thought on being an opener. In 57 career starts, his OPS allowed is .689.

Berrios Pineda + any of the rookies who have emerged.

You know the part where they talk about “sustainable”? In that scenario, I don’t think you generally promote a guy to the majors with 5.1 innings of AAA under his belt and only 52 innings of AA (including just nine starts). The Santana comparison isn’t really accurate — he was in the majors because he had to be. And the scenario you’re describing, TopGunn, was actually his THIRD season. In his first season (2000), he only started five games, three in April and two in September. And he got rocked — 24 runs in 22 innings. The vast majority of his innings came in blowout losses — they were 2-28 in games in which he pitched. In 2001, things he generally pitched low-leverage relief, then made four starts in June/July and went on the DL for the rest of the year before pitching an inning in September. The relief outings were generally in blowouts (they were 2-9 in his games). They won all four of his starts, but not because of him — 15 runs in 19.2 innings. His only decision on the year was in his one decent start, when he gave up 2 runs in 5 innings and left with an 8-2. In 2002, he made great contributions, but he had actually started the season in AAA and didn’t come up until May 31. It was his third season. Even if the Twins don’t come up with another starter (and I think they will still get one or even two), the 3-5 starters would be Dobnak, Stashak, and Thorpe, each of whom has significantly more innings at AAA. And assuming health, one would get sent down after 8 starts when Pineda returns. Between guys being ahead of him in the pecking order and what is shaping up as a deep bullpen, I don’t think there’s any way a 21-year-old with 5.1 AAA innings starts the season in Minnesota, let alone in the rotation. I could see him pitching impact innings, but not before mid-season. Elsewhere, I outlined a scenario where he targets about 130 innings. Assume about 18 starts averaging 5 innings in Rochester, which gets to about mid-July. At that point, MLB needs and his performance determines whether you bring him up for up to 40 innings of MLB relief or leave him in Rochester to get the remaining 40. If it lines up to cover a need, he could potentially be brought up to be the 27th man in a DH, but that’s about it. I wouldn’t even be surprised if the first half dozen or so of the starts came in AA.

I liked this $2.75MM move when it was announced. I like it even more now when I see that Betances just signed for $10.5MM. I didn't catch that anyone pointed out this tidbit, but I read somewhere that Clippard is the only reliever to have thrown at least 60 innings in each of the past 10 seasons (and in his case, it's actually 11). Not a one of those seasons had a WHIP above 1.30, and only one had a K/9 under 9.