It usually goes to a manager of a team that people didn't think would do much, or that really turned things around during the year.
that leaves MN, TX, HOU, and maybe even NYY. Heck, was TOR picked to do much? I don't see TOR winning, since they have all that talent.
Frankly, I don't think it is much of an award.....the Washington manager won it last year or the year before......