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DJL44

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Everything posted by DJL44

  1. DJL44
    RBI correlates very well to players who have a high slugging percentage. It's also a junk stat because it adds noise to the data and there is a readily available stat (slugging percentage) that is much better available. Why would you use WPA when you can use PWAA instead? PWAA doesn't give you garbage results saying Trevor Hoffman is a better pitcher than Walter Johnson.
  2. DJL44
    I would be mad at Ron Gardenhire, not Bobby Keppel, if they decided not to use Joe Nathan in a close game. WPA measures whether the manager is putting the right pitcher in the game. It doesn't measure the performance of the pitcher. It also doesn't measure defensive contribution at all. It is a junk stat when assessing pitcher performance. It's the flip side of GWRBI.
  3. DJL44
    It's exactly the same for the pitcher. It isn't harder to prevent runs in the 9th inning than it is in the first inning. Why should a pitcher get credit for how he is used by his manager? At least we agree on this - at his best Joe Nathan was about as valuable as a middle rotation starter. How many middle rotation starters should we put in the Hall of Fame?
  4. DJL44
    If Joe Nathan had only pitched the first inning his entire career his WPA would be a LOT lower. WPA rewards pitching the 9th inning as if runs in that inning count more than runs in the first inning.
  5. DJL44
    WPA rewards context, not production. Even WAR overrates relievers with the leverage index.
  6. DJL44
    Vallimont looks like bullpen or bust. He's going to need to be able to put the ball over the plate more consistently. 6 walks per 9 innings is way too high.
  7. DJL44
    I have advocated for a different idea - go back to the 4 man rotation. When baseball changed to the 5 man rotation starting pitchers were throwing 250 innings a season over 40 starts. Now they're lucky if a starter pitches 160 innings over 33 starts. Workloads have dropped from 130 pitches per start to 90 pitches. Starting pitchers are your best pitchers. You want to get more innings from them. We have seen the rise of the bullpen because generic relievers can do better their 1st time through a lineup than your 3rd starter can the 3rd time through that same lineup. To get more innings from your starting pitchers you either need to let them face the lineup a 3rd time more often or have them start more often. I would opt for the latter. Limit the starter to 2x through the lineup but pitch them every 4 games. This should give a team 180-200 quality innings from their starter. With the reduced workload they should be able to recover in time for the game 3 days later. It will require modifying their between-games training regimen but that should be manageable.
  8. DJL44
    Joe Nathan and Andy Pettitte played the EXACT SAME POSITION - pitcher. They ARE peers. Andy Pettitte is ridiculously more qualified for the Hall of Fame than Joe Nathan (especially if you consider postseason performance). Pettitte pitched 2500 more innings than Nathan. Nathan has 4 seasons of 3+ WAR and none above 4. Pettitte has 9 seasons of 3+ WAR and a best season of 8.4 in 1997. Pettitte pitched 277 postseason innings with a 3.81 ERA. Joe Nathan pitched 10 postseason innings with a horrible ERA of 8.10. Relief pitchers are guys who couldn't hack it in the starting rotation. Almost none of them contribute more than the 4th starter during a baseball season. It drives me crazy that people want to pass over the BEST pitchers - the ones who can get players out for 5-6 innings at a time and instead induct the players who failed at starting and ended up in the bullpen. There are at least 100 pitchers I would have in line for the Hall between Pettitte and Nathan.
  9. DJL44
    Blame the idiot sportswriters. He was the best pitcher in baseball in 3 consecutive seasons but they kept giving the award to the wrong guy.
  10. DJL44
    I do agree that Kevin Brown, Bret Saberhagen, David Cone, Dave Stieb, Mark Buehrle, Andy Pettitte and Cole Hamels (and Tim Hudson) should be in the Hall of Fame. Better than inducting another reliever (Billy Wagner). Those starting pitchers are above the historical standard: Catfish Hunter, Eppa Rixey, Bob Lemon, Early Wynn, Burleigh Grimes, Herb Pennock. They're also a lot better picks than Jim Kaat or Jack Morris,
  11. DJL44
    David Cone should definitely be in the Hall of Fame. So should Bret Saberhagen and Dave Stieb.
  12. DJL44
    Minor league signings don't mean much but right now in addition to Larnach and Celestino they have Cave, Fisher and Garlick for AAA.
  13. DJL44
    I was excited to see Christian Encarnacion-Strand destroy Fort Myers. He's about 6 months younger than Sabato but did much better at that level. It will be interesting to see how the Twins get both of them playing time.
  14. DJL44
    Too late, that's already happened.
  15. DJL44
    Somewhere between 1/3 and 1/2 of their opponents were also cheating by using steroids. For most of those years steroid usage was against the rules but with no penalty if the player was caught. The Hall of Fame has put in Jose Canseco and Mark McGwire's manager Tony La Russa (who had to know what was going on). HoF has also inducted Whitey Ford and Gaylord Perry - who doctored the ball. Hank Greenberg was on Tiger teams that had scouts relaying signs from CF. Mickey Mantle took steroid injections. Lots of 1970s and 80s players were using amphetamines. Cheating to lose is much, much worse. If one team is trying to throw the game to make money then there is really no game happening. It's a staged event designed to deceive gamblers, not an athletic contest. The results are pre-determined. It's the difference between a sporting event and actors following a script.
  16. DJL44
    There is a big difference between cheating to win and cheating to lose.
  17. DJL44
    They seem quite mediocre. There are things they do better than Terry Ryan but not that much better and Terry Ryan had his advantages as well. They need to sign some international free agent pitchers. They're one of the worst teams in baseball in acquiring Latin American pitchers as teenagers. They keep acquiring infielders who can't stick at shortstop and outfielders but they do a terrible job trading them for anything useful to balance the roster. They wait way too long to convert their lesser starting pitching prospects into relievers. I think this is because the cupboard is so bare when it comes to starting pitching prospects that they're desperate to find anyone.
  18. DJL44
    Pretty much, yeah. I put Sano at DH and if he's terrible by June I cut him. There's only one year left on the deal. If Sano can't DH this will be his last season in the big leagues.
  19. DJL44
    If he wants to play in the field he needs to start doing it well enough to help the team. He's the worst fielding first baseman on the roster.
  20. DJL44
    They might be about even now but a year from now Donaldson is likely to be worse. Also, 1B is going to be less wear and tear for Donaldson.
  21. DJL44
    In 2022 Sano would be my full time DH and Josh Donaldson would be my full time 1B. Kirilloff can play LF with Miranda at 3B.
  22. DJL44
    I wouldn't worry as much about prospects. Most of them don't pan out.
  23. DJL44
    This is what the players are fighting for in the new CBA. They've seen their % of revenue go down over the last CBA. They're trying to fight to make sure 50% of that new money goes in their pocket. You want a system that encourages investment. You don't want low revenue teams that are content to run a minimum payroll and make a ton of money losing. You want to encourage large revenue teams to compete for the top free agents. You want to encourage MLB expansion to increase overall revenues, not just divide the current pie 32 ways instead of 30. I think changing from 10 to 12 playoff teams makes a lot of sense - when the league expands to 32 teams. That's 8 division winners and 4 wild cards. I think best of 3 playoff series are pretty stupid after a 162 game season. The NBA doesn't even run best of 3 playoffs and it has much more confidence the best team wins the game.
  24. DJL44
    You probably would but playoff media revenue (the real money) is shared league wide. The Pirates make as much off the national TV contract as the Yankees. Socialism for the rich again.
  25. DJL44
    Maybe they can change the rules of baseball from tagging a person out to tackling them to get them out! People would love that! The NBA and NHL regular seasons are mostly pointless and so are the first playoff rounds. Baseball teams that barely make it to .500 should not be in the playoffs, especially if they keep this stupid idea that the first round of playoffs is only a 3 game series. ANY team in baseball can win in a 3 game series. Did you ever think that baseball loves adding playoff games because the players are not fairly compensated for playoff games? The players get half of the gate receipts for playoff games and NONE of the TV, radio or internet streaming money. The owners would love if players' only revenue during the regular season was half of the gate.
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