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Cris E

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Everything posted by Cris E

  1. Cris E
    I think the trade forced him to re-examine a lot of stuff, as Tampa has a history of letting coaches and catcher do most of the game prep and pitch calling, Last August he admitted he was reading pre-game scouting for the first time in his career. I could easily see his post-trade ERA being over six as offering an opportunity to listen to even more advice. Plus he's getting into his mid-20s and his body might just be getting stronger. He's not that much younger than SWR, who saw a big velo jump last year, or older than Marek Houston who we keep hearing will be growing into his power soon.
  2. Cris E
    Gray over Arcia feels like a surprise. Kreidler has looked better with the glove and Arcia with the bat, so I haven't been loving Gray that much. We'll see, it's just the defensive sub spot.
  3. Cris E
    Well good news for you then, because the highest score is 80. Hurray?
  4. Cris E
    Don't over-reach unnecessarily, it weakens your point and distracts from a decent argument. Vasquez was coming off several years of good performance (for a catcher) with fine playoff experience in BOS and before Jeffers had emerged. As a team on the verge of competing the $10m was not a terrible deal at the time, given that Gary Sanchez was the incumbent and couldn't stay healthy. (Search this site for "5 Reasons Christian Vázquez is a GREAT Fit for the Twins".) Miranda was playing outstanding ball when he got the concussion that he hasn't recovered from yet. Ryan Fitzgerald suddenly looks pretty good once we've taken a closer look at his peers, and Roden is far better than Outman and deserved better than he got this spring. The others, however, make your point with room to spare.
  5. Cris E
    You've got this backwards: Larnach will play against righties and Martin against lefties, meaning you'll be seeing a lot more of Trevor. If he sticks to a platoon that should be OK, since he's a league-average bat when he's allowed to avoid same-side pitchers.
  6. Cris E
    There are a lot more bad teams out there than people think. I mentioned this the other day, but Fangraphs still projects the Twins as having the #20 relief staff after this week's changes. And as bad a the ChiSox were two years ago, Colorado was as bad last year, on the field if not in the win column, and the Nats do not look good at all this year. Lots of fun to mess with Chicago fans, but there are plenty of wins to be had for barely average teams.
  7. Cris E
    That's really a surprising number. For the average to be a window that reaches down to 93.6 there have to be a lot of pitchers living at 90-91 to offset the huge number of guys that regularly throw 98 these days. Seriously, everyone hits 94 easily and many starters can reach back for 96+, so who is dragging it down that far? As far as how it affects Ober, not much at all. His game has always been long extension and changing speeds. Go look at him on Baseball Savant and you'll see no walks, lots of chase, huge offspeed value. The problem for him isn't a loss of velo so much as his control falling apart. While he's never been a strikeout guy he should be much close to 7 k/9 than the 3 he's posted so far, and that is paired with a 10 BB/9 that's multiples of his career 1.94 rate. People are seizing on the MPH because it's easy and available during spring training, but if he's on his game he should still be able to make it work. Those changeup guys live in another world, but they have to be perfect. The reason he worked on new mechanics should be to make it easier throw strikes and repeat his pitches as much as it increases velocity. Hopefully he can keep making progress as the calendar flips towards next week and into April.
  8. Cris E
    Hard to tell if he forced this or they were just waiting for the contract date to hit. They gave him a solid appearance yesterday, and he was OK, but even that doesn't indicate if it was the team saying We Can Do Better or the player saying I Can Do Better. You'd think they'd be pleased with him in a non-closer role if he were only OK, so maybe he thinks there are worse pens out there with better expectations for the year. Even after the huge sell-off last year and not doing much this winter they weren't at all projected to have one of the worst bullpens in the league. Fans here are harder on them than many of the national sites: right now, with Liam off the roster, they still rank MN as #20 in relief depth by WAR.
  9. Cris E
    Tom Pohlad is just speaking at folks who aren't paying attention and might rubber-stamp the ticket renewals for 2026.
  10. Cris E
    You think Lewis will be better at the deadline than Bell? Between the two I would expect Bell to be who he's been before Lewis both improves and stays healthy. Put Lee at 3B and Bell at 1B and leave Luke at 2b and Lewis on the 60 day. But honestly Wallner is going to play every day, at least at DH. And I think there will be at least one new face in that pen as at least one or two of those vets falter, beyond Klein to include either Festa or someone from the outside. I think Martin loses his place once they start calling up kids. And Clemens needs to be better to stick around once the youth movement begins. He can claim to be Ty France who can play 2b, but a lot of his perceived value still derives from that 3 HR game and the Boston walk-off last year. That nebulous clubhouse presence goes away with real vets in the room and trading up for future value going on.
  11. Cris E
    My last post was based on Nick Nelson's tracker from last Sunday. I just checked the March MLB.com boxscores and they show him at 3b on March 1, 3 and 12. Whatever, if he's a real option they seem to be pretty complacent about his preparation.
  12. Cris E
    You really think there's a 71 OPS+ 3B in the Twins system today? None of the potential SS backups hit that well. Edit: I keep forgetting that Wagaman exists. Has he been playing 3B much lately? just checked and as of Sunday he still only has two appearances over there.
  13. Cris E
    Prelipp may be in competition with Festa and several others for the Closer hat, and that assumes he is moved off a starting role for a non-injury reason. I'm gonna take the field on Young Twins 2026 Closer. Quick and Hill are everything tempting and alluring and dangerous about pitching prospects. Hill looks effortless hitting 100, and Quick has never stumbled. But man, pro ball is really hard. I keep saying that, but the survivors that reach MLB are beating tremendous odds. This set of three choices reflects some wishful thinking, which I love in mid-March, but the fact that Bailey Ober and SWR are the guys with the most big league innings isn't because they were the best at each step along the way, it's because they kept taking the ball, they stayed on the mound, they kept improving. Joe Ryan has made more than anyone expected out of his middling but unique FB and staying fairly healthy. That may be why the less flashy Klein and Morris are so prominent around here. I'd be thrilled for any of these guys to reach their potential, but the math is against them. Blessing, boys, and hope to see you across the river one of these years.
  14. Cris E
    Lebron? Could be, I'm not a prospect hound so I have no real opinion. However, that hot start may have lots of flashy power but 14 K in his first 18 games when he's totally dominating in all other respects indicates he's got holes that will get exploited at higher levels. Could work out, but no draftee is a lock. Erod? Love to see him put it together at come up this year, but he's still got some work to do. Prove it in St Paul and come up when he demands a spot. Houston? Hitting is so, so hard. If teaching good fielders was so easy the league wouldn't be hitting .240, so I am more hesitant about expecting him to reach a .650 OPS. His Wake Forest team had a .967 OPS his senior year, so his 1.055 isn't as mind-blowing as it might first appear. I'd be happy if his excellent glove could be paired with an average .340 OBP and some baserunning.
  15. Cris E
    Guys can succeed at lower velocity, but they are outliers, and to do this Ober needs to become a surgeon like Jamie Moyer. His change has been terrific this year, but his control has to be outstanding to live that life long-term. He may not be cooked, but if he wants to walk this road he's a 4/5 until he proves he's taken those steps.
  16. Cris E
    St Paul has a yawning chasm at 3B too, so Gio will hopefully start there. They do need to keep him around as the 3B safety net, but he's no part of a SS discussion (short of some sort of zombie apocalypse.)
  17. Cris E
    That's probably just a sign that he's started selling out a little of contact for some power, likely in recognition of his declining skills. That's fine as long as he can piece together a vaguely acceptable approximation of a utility guy level of offence. Arcia is the guy for April simply because the others won't be claimed (again) and he's sort of hot (for him at this age) right now. As mentioned above, you're looking for Jeff Reboulet here, not Bobby Witt Jr.
  18. Cris E
    Pitching is hard. 369 guys started a game last year (245 started 5 or more), but only 127 threw 100 innings. The league had a 4.16 ERA, but that includes all the reliever innings as well. Only 21 starting pitchers hit 4 WAR in 2025, and 13 more were between 3 and 4 WAR. So what do you think a #3 pitcher looks like? If you jump down to the 60-90 range of starters from last year you get between 2.0 - 1.3 WAR. The middle of that third band is #75, and the guys there tied at 1.5 WAR (Shota Imanaga, Davis Martin, Taijuan Walker, Brad Lord, Mike Burrows.) That's 3.73 to 4.34 ERA (95-109 ERA+) in 96-144 innings. SWR had 2.2 WAR, with a 4.04 ERA (106 ERA+) in 111 innings, which actually put him at #48 among MLB starters last year. If you don't like WAR you can pick something else, but he started 22 games and was better than average. That's a solid #3 starter in modern MLB baseball.
  19. Cris E
    Wow does this make me feel old. Not because I watched him play, but because I recall his first games in the booth so clearly. His first spring they had him down behind the plate at the Dome for a game because the booth was too full of guests. They cut to him abruptly for insight on a pitch and all he could come up with was "Well it was a breaking ball I guess." Not entirely fair, but not all that useful either. He's much better now, but it took years to rise from Terrible to Not Distracting. Congrats Dan, you've come a long, long way.
  20. Cris E
    Oh I hope he's out of options with a deep propensity for Three True Outcomes hitting and a major hole in his swing. Or would it be better to have a guy with one good year in 2022 who is just one tweak away from being Seth Brown? Maybe an injury project who merely needs ABs to regain his prospect polish? Oh, such choices.
  21. Cris E
    Amen. It's easy to find excellent defense, but pairing it with offense is hard. Teams usually have to strike some balance between "enough" defense and "enough" offense. Lee is just like everyone else, somewhere between Marek Houston and Josh Bell as a SS: he fields well enough if he hits well enough. But there are huge swathes of unplayable SS between Josh and Marek, so it's good that Lee continues honing his skills to stay relevant. It sounds like he knows his hitting will keep him ahead of Gray and Kreidler, and it sounds like he's ignoring Culpepper and focusing on his own game since there's nothing he can do about the guys behind him. Sound approach, and best of luck to him, we could use a better SS in 2026.
  22. Cris E
    Let him see high quality breaking stuff in St Paul, let him fail a little and recover, and then bring him up. No sense making that readjustment period harder than necessary. And there's always the chance that he doesn't adjust and he get dismantled in AAA. Let the process work, our SS is not the last piece of a championship team.
  23. Cris E
    Completely unrelated to the topic at hand, I expect the owners to introduce a rabbit ball if any time is missed for the new CBA. Nothing polishes up the old fan interest like 60+ HR and a bunch of guys hitting .350.
  24. Cris E
    This org has been watching service time since before many of this generation of 30-something GMs was born. He'll be up in June when the Super Two date passes.
  25. Cris E
    This sort of article needs to be clear about cut-downs and how many minor leaguers are on hand at any point, similar to the WBC mention in CF. It's fun to see ERod and Jenkins and Rucker(?) but they are starting to disappear this week as things start to get real. I think they know what they have in a lot of guys, so playing time reflects either things a guy wants to work on (eg Lee at SS) or questions they want to answer. Can Bell or Wagaman really play 1B? Who can back up at 2B and 3B? Which of these OF can cover what spots? They need enough info to decide what spots they still have to fill and which spots to create thru trades and cuts, but Larnach in RF might just be about staging him for a sale. The amount of time Clemens is spending at 2B almost looks like he's being shown off. Hey, how about Clemens and Larnach to the Angels for the desiccated remains of Kirby Yates and whatever money and kids make the GMs happy? Money would be a wash, we get some closer-y vibes and clear the roster a bit. They have holes at 2B and LF is no great shakes. Everyone is happy.
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