Whether Shields "holds down" Berrios, May, Duffey, etc. isn't a "hole in my theory", it's difference of opinion on what might happen in the future. Shields will almost certainly begin a decline in effectiveness. A declining Shields is still likely better than many young promising pitchers will end up being at their peak. But if my theory has hole, yours has a chasm. Shields doesn't have to be better than [insert young talented arm here]. You can have BOTH! If we rolled with Shields, Santana, Berrios, Hughes, and Nolasco next season with Duffey spot starting and May, Jepsen, Perkins out of the pen, I am liking our chances. If you want Duffey in the rotation, put Hughes in the pen where he has had success in the past. That's a pretty solid mix of youth and experience built to win a lot of games in the regular season and give you a decent chance in a playoff series.