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Jham

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Everything posted by Jham

  1. Jham
    I think our weaknesses are 1) lack of top-end talent, 2) lack of pennant race experience, 3) Bullpen talent. We have a very solid group of players with production at almost all spots. As others have referenced, we lack an ace, some teams have more than 1. Taylor Rogers may or may not be that unhittable closer, many teams have more than 1. Polanco is playing like Trout, but he isn't Trout or Bellinger or Yelich. We're solid but with probably no "best in baseball" players. We made a run in 2017 and looked overmatched in the race for the division and in a 1 game playoff. Many of the key pieces of that team are gone. Sano was out. Most of our rotation and bullpen has no playoff experience. We haven't faced any major adversity yet. When the pressure mounts and the are no do-overs, experience usually helps. Finally, the pen has performed great, and Vasquez, Brusdar, and Romero are potential wild cards. That said, we've seen Hilde implode, we've seen May get injured. If Rogers went down, we'd be scrambling. Luckily, Penn is usually one of the easiest places to upgrade... historically. OTOH, the league has changed. Reliable is still easy to find. Lock-down arms are now a premium commodity. Twins bucked the trend on bull pen construction and are thus far beating the trend. Playoffs with More off days tends to favor the strongest pen, not necessarily the deepest.
  2. Jham
    Much of his game and personality reminds me of former Twins 2nd baseman Luis Castillo.
  3. Jham
    Fun with numbers: Luis Arraez has accumulated .4 bwar in 4 games.
  4. Jham
    1. Arraez has passed Gordon as a prospect and on the organizational depth chart, imo. He's only 22 and has more power potential than Gordon based on his frame and contact. 2. Adrianza is not a DFA candidate. He's a leader in the clubhouse and apparently one of the hardest workers on the team. He got a start in the outfield and played well. He's actually been one of our hotter hitters after a slow start. 3. Sano has easy power to right. I hope he keeps that inside out swing. He gets great trajectory and backspin. When he gets pull happy he generates lots of topspin that limit hits slugging potential as well as exacerbating contact issues. 4. I really like this team and look forward to the summer.
  5. Jham
    Woulda been Gordon. Can't catch a break.
  6. Jham
    He has to be on our playoff roster if it looks like we'll make it, right?
  7. Jham
    Fernando Romero doesn't seem suited for work out of the pen. His hype never seemed to match his stuff. His stuff didn't necessarily match his results, and his results didn't even necessarily match his results. He gets hit pretty hard for a potential ace or closer. His fastball is straight and his slider lacks command. Should have been traded while his value was high. Moving him to the pen was a mistake. He's lost considerable value and hasn't been any more effective, actually he's less effective. I'd extend him out to be a starter or long man at this point. If we're in a playoff race, I want to see Graterol or Alcala over Romero, to be honest.
  8. Jham
    Not a face of the franchise, but I've really liked watching Schoop. He's always smiling and having fun. Laid back but professional. Strong arm after all the Dozier years. I was really impressed by the angiotensin insertion he got in his return to Baltimore. He clearly made a positive impression there as well. We're lucky to have him. I'd look to keep him until Lewis is ready.
  9. Jham
    Yeah I mean Schoop is playing himself into a nice deal i'd think a raise. Gibby is more likely to get a QO than Odo, imo. I like Crons D, but I'd think a combo of Sano, ak, rooker, and Garver might suffice. Perez is another $4mil. I just don't think we can count on Odo or same or Gibby or same. Historically, we low ball, refuse to over pay, and settle for worse. This year it worked. Last year we totally wasted. I guess some people are stressed by commitment and structure, others by uncertainty and risk. Trying to strike gold with 1 year deals seems untennable. But maybe that's the strategy. I'd ever that were to work, this FA market is probably it.
  10. Jham
    These types of players are traded all the time. Usually for cash or ptbnl. No one notices because no one cares. There's no reason to cut him if we don't have to imo.
  11. Jham
    31st in WAR as a mostly backup is pretty good. Like basically lower-tier starter. Luxury as a back up. I know Rowson was working with him on swinging out and hitting for more power which would raise his value and ceiling significantly. Early returns were somewhat positive. This year's been a struggle after a fantastic spring. But he's a veteran presence by now. He's a proven, if unspectacular fielder. He'd be a perfect stop gap for a rebuilding team or a nice backup for a contender. He's better than DSan, Florimon, or Juan Castro anyhow... put another way, if we didn't have him, and Gonzo or Polanco got hurt, I'd be very willing to offer something for a him.
  12. Jham
    Hmmm... I don't remember writing that... My point is that the idea of developing talent in waves and windows is in apposite to the stated goal of sustained success. The team has chosen roster and payroll flexibility over conviction and planning. This looks to me like a 1 year window right now unless payroll is going to be expanded significantly. you leave a lot of work and question marks having so much turnover year to year. Mostly I feel like we should really want to take a step forward next year. It seems more likely we step back. Particularly in the rotation. We also didn't commit to this year. So what is the plan?
  13. Jham
    Adrianza almost certainly has some trade value. Unless he's traded, I doubt he's moved off the roster. Cave has options. Easy call. Austudillo has options. Not so easy call. We have relief options that have options. Low leverage relievers with no options clog the wheel. Find a reliever with no options who's last name starts with "M" and cut.
  14. Jham
    Seriously? The available money is part of the problem, imo. It's a sign that we didn't have a plan and simply wanted flexibility. Apparently we didn't think this was our year. But if not, when? The guys you listed and I'd throw Hildy and Rogers in, are mostly arb eligible and up for raises or extensions. As you've said we'd have little money actually committed EXCEPT we will have to replace or extend Schoop, Gibby, Odo, Perez, and Cron. All of which are in line for significant bumps so far this year. Pineda is still a ?. Cruz comes back likely for $2mil less. This leaves mostly just Castro as salary relief (and maybe Hughes?) coming off the books. Our owners are famous for not negotiating contracts midseason. I don't think Castro and Hughes are enough to pay even for the arbitration raises we'll owe, let alone the raises needed to retain our pending FA or extend young stars. After having to replace or extend 4/5 of our starting rotation, how do you suggest we field even an equal team next season (let alone future seasons) given our inherent salary reqs?
  15. Jham
    Does anyone else see a total imbalance in roster management? Like this team is about to get really really expensive... or we're going to lose some really key pieces for nothing...
  16. Jham
    I can't advise against this course of action strongly enough. Just enjoy your victory. (looks over shoulders for own wife's peering eyes). quietly.
  17. Jham
    Also true. What a nuanced sport.
  18. Jham
    I never said we shouldn't start Castro. Just that a tick below league average ops is pretty low for a starter. He's good at framing, but that doesn't make him immune from fair analysis or comparisons.
  19. Jham
    ... but every team carries at least 2 catchers with maybe a quarter of those at bats coming from backups. League average probably places you pretty low on the list of starting catchers I'd think.
  20. Jham
    His numbers never really matched his stuff.. or his other numbers. .. basically, I've come to the conclusion that if your stuff can't strike out minor leaguers at 10+/9ip you probably don't have that great of stuff. Doubly so for guys like Romero who give up fair numbers of hits and walks. That's why I don't understand why we use k's/9ip rather than k%. If you're consistently facing extra batters, you should be getting more k's. To me, Romero profiles as a back end starter/primary competent reliever. Not so much an ace or shut down guy.
  21. Jham
    I dunno how the new age pen will work out. It sounds good in theory and on paper, but in practice, with real people, the human element is still somewhat unknown. Relievers are sometimes a shakey sort reliant on confidence, routine, and even superstition. The idea is that you may well lose some games in the 9th you might have previously won, but win more games overall. If you take out the routine, you may accidentally reduce the effectiveness of your br est bull pen arms. It's also not clear how arbitrators, general managers, and agents will test the new strategy that deemphasizes closers.
  22. Jham
    Because his natural talent and power is obvious, coaches are arrogant types that think they can get to the bottom of every player, and it only takes 1 GM to believe in him.
  23. Jham
    Fangraphs even explicitly cautions users on the weighting, particularly of HR which typically occur in small samples. Thus it created a separate stat, xFIP which assumes league avg hr rates. That said, FIP, xFIP, and SIERA are all good stats that carefully and scientifically weight the input data based on historical correlations with run prevention. But... the game is changing in regard to, and perhaps because of, the areas these stats emphasize: k's, bbs and HRs. 2 things i'd like to see is if the counting stats have the same run prevention correlations in the modern game as they used to. I'd really like to see how much more stable Fip is from year to year compared to era. Still don't get trying to predict era.
  24. Jham
    No, the weighting matters. Presumably, you're comparing pitchers based on FIP and suggesting the pitcher with the lower FIP (objective) is a better (subjective) pitcher. But the score is weighted, and the weighting may favor Ks over limiting walks or getting ground balls. The real question is why the heck we try to predict era at all. shouldn't FIP and xFIP be relatively constant?
  25. Jham
    Defensive metrics continue to improve. No doubt. I think all skeptics like cheif and myself say it's to acknowledge the blind spots. Many say they do, but don't really. Statcast is a game changer. It can track both the route of the defender, the trajectory and speed of the batted ball, and the place on the field it lands. The illusion is that it takes all into consideration. FSN will show Buxton on a route and catch and show it as caught only 6% of ther time. But that's not the route. It's simply based on how many balls of that trajectory are hit to that particular spot on the field and turned into outs. Useful, but with modern shifting the data can be heavily skewed. We've all seen the can of corn to the left side turned into a hot because of an extreme outfield shift. The left fielder would get crushed on that ball because statcast would show that ball as a FO 7 twingo spot 97% of the time when in reality he had no shot. Shifted the other way in the infield, a 2b might be called under that ball and statcast might have the play as nearly miraculous. Statcast tracks both but assembling is still difficult. SSS exacerbates this since one unlucky shift play can skew the numbers given the low number of chances. Then there's the arbitrary position adjustment for WAR which I contr want to get into again...
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