Major League Ready

What specifically would you have had them do last year? I really am not trying to be combative. I just don't think there were reasonable options. Therefore, how can you criticize the effort on FAs? I wanted Dempster and either Marcum or Saunders. Marcum has been really bad, Saunders and Dempster have nearly identical ERAs that are just a little higher than Correia. At least Pelfrey will be gone next year and they can try again.

We can't really judge until these contracts have run through completion. Sabathia is signed through 2017 and he looks to be declining substantially. Maybe he is hurt but he has had several bad starts in a row, including against the Twins. We will have to wait and see on Fielder. That body type does not inspire confidence in terms of continuing to perform as he ages. At least the high profile international guys don't entail contracts that take them past their prime. At least we can avoid that specific risk. I would guess Billy Beane's logic with Cespedes was that he was entering his prime and it only required 4 yr/$36M. I think this is the type of deal that makes sense for the Twins. Having said all this I do side with those who say we can do more with Morneau and Blackburn coming off the books and additional TV revenue. Someone like Ryan Dempster made sense to me this last off-season but he is 6-8 with an ERA of 4.54 which for all practical purposes is no different than Correia. The only think I am sure of is that any free agent strategy has a high probability of failure. I like the odds a little better with the international FAs for reasons previously stated. The only thing that I am sure of is that we need to get better at identifying and developing SPs and we need to sell high on occcasion.

Part of your point is the real issue. The Twins need to improve in the same areas as the Rays and As. That would provide a very high probability of improved success. I don't think one dime of tax payer money should ever go toward building stadiums. It is a subsidy for private business that certainly does not require it. If you want to be mad, be mad because our legislature/society takes tax revenue for sports teams who then use it to drive-up sports salaries that are already phenominally high. However, that ship has sailed so get over it. They spent when it made sense. We can complain when it comes time to spend to keep the talent they are developing. What are the viable options? We don't want to block Hick's, Arcia or Buxton so FA outfielders does not make sense. We have Mauer at catcher with Pinto being ready soon, Hermann as back-up and several fresh recruits at catacher. Sano or Rosario and Florimon is among the top couple short stops defensively. That leaves us w/1B and pitching. Harrison or Kepler are likely candidates and 1B would be easy to fill via free agency. It's easy to speak of how we should use free agency in general terms and to say they should have spent every last dime but how specifically should they have spent the money, short of having a crystal ball for the couple of FAs who did not require 4-6 years that did happen to work out. So, what exactly should they have done differently in free agency? I have to say the Pelfey signing was overly optimistic in terms of how quickly he be back in form if at all but there were many names floated here and out side of Grienke and Sanchez, most are not performing. The simply would have spent more money and tied up more roster spots for a longer period of time. Last season is a shining example of the current free agent market for pitchers. There will be 2-3 really top pitchers that will command 4-6 years. If you go back 4-6 years, most of those acquistions were poor or very poor values.

This is the crux of the problem. Many Twins fans just can’t get over we are not the Yankees or the Red Sox. The Yankees have approximately $250M more revenue than the Twins and the Red Sox have an additional $120M. While this is not a small market team it would be foolish for the Twins to adapt the practices of large market teams. I am not so sure there practices are well-advised even with the increased revenue. It’s a risky practice. The Yankees better hope they can get out of A-Rods contract and Sabathia looks like he is fading fast w.3.5 years to go on his deal. How about the Angels? They bought themselves a big long-term problem or two. To continue the spending debate, you have to be willing to just completely ignore that the Rays have been very competitive with a payroll about one-third of the Yankees and RedSox. The Rays and As have a combined payroll of just under $124M (approx $62M/ea). The Twins need to adapt their practices. What we should be debating IMO, is how the Twins should refine their practices to follow the successful examples of the As and Rays. And, how we could use the $50M in additional revenue we have over those teams. Should we use it to retain our own players, sign international prospects or Free Agent’s? I recognize that it will be a few years before our top prospects will arbitration eligible and eventually free agents. However, top free agents require very long-term deals and eat-up that $50M in a big hurry. Do we really want SPs next year that require a six year contract (2014-2019). Many of the top free agents do perform for awhile. But the norm is to pay them well past their prime so even the ones that do perform will likely hurt the team for a couple of years. That can be obsorbed if you are NY or Boston, not so much if you are the Twins. The rest are a crap shoot, especially pitchers.

While I would have to agree the Twins should pay big money to recruit a couple guys that scout or develop talent for the Rays and As, our farm system is in great shape. I think you might have lost sight of the fact the Twins farm system is at the top of all of the programs in MLB. You need to find a new team to follow.

With the exceptionof Houston, the three teams with the lowest payrolls in baseball are the best teams in the MLs. Houston is going to be very good but they will have to go through the rebuilding process which takes time, just like the twins. The answer is not overpriced FAs, especially for a team in the middle of the pack revenue wise. The model for the Twins is not the Yankees, Red Sox or Angels. It is a version of the Rays and As where they are able to hold on to some of thier stars instead of trading them away before they hit free agency.

Makes sense to me. It would be hard to believe a 29 y/o SP that is a Boras client is not going to throughly investigate all his options in the off-season. Why not take a chance and hope that Albers is a surprise asset that can bridge the gap to the guys coming up through the system. Heck, at least it would be something interesting to watch. Last year, very few believed Deduno would last. Maybe Albers can be this year's pleasant surprise.

Based on our last draft, I think the Twins FO probably agrees with you.

I am with you here. There is a lot of complaining about building a contender and then an unwillingness to let players go who might actually bring something in return. Perk is my favorite player on this team but I am sitting here hoping someone offers us a return TR can't refuse. It would be nice to just let Morneau play out his contract and have a nice send-off. On the other hand, we need a 1B next year and it would be nice to give Colabello a 50 game audition. Maybe even give Romero a look at 3rd and experiment with Plouffe at 1st. Romero's numbers in the past 10 games are 351/442/595 in his last 10 games.

I too am hoping Colabello will be the guy that turns this trend of guys killing it at AAA and then not making it at the MLB level. It would be great if he could bridge the gap until Harrison, Hicks or Vargas come up or maybe even Walker gets coverted to 1B.

Perkins is our only chance at an asset that will contribute to rebuilding. I would let Doumit go just to give Hermann a shot at proving himself at the MLB level.

Bundy would be really nice. Really low odds but I like your optimism and we still need a couple more high ceiling SP prospects in the system. How about Morny, Pelfrey, and Melotakis for Bundy?

I think Walker, Pinto and a few others are going to get noticed soon. Look at the bright side, there are serveral good prospects that did not make it in the top 20. That is some pretty darn good depth.

The last few games might have them thinking Colabello is worth looking at for the rest of the season or most likely a platoon of Colabello and Parm. Arcia is then an everyday starter with Thomas and Mastro platooning. Hopefully Doumit is gone in a couple days and Herman takes over his role. Doumit has been good at times this year but Herman is better defensively in both positions so let's see what he can produce with the bat the rest of the year.

My first wish is they get something decen in trade for him. We will have to see if he keeps it going through the remainder of the year. If so, we will have to have a guess Pelfrey's contract poll here. There sure is a wide variance in what people think he will get. If he finishes strong, you can bet Boras is going to be selling the Pelfrey of the next 3-4 years is going to be the Pelfrey that was great until he went out last year and Pelfrey we are seeing now and hopefully the remainder of the year.

I would tend to agree if the benching was based on this single action. However, there have been other incidents reported and it would seem likely we don't know everything that goes on. Let's not assume everyone is incompetent, at least not when we only know part of the story.

The Rays definitely know how to lock up early and how to sell high. The flip side is that if the Twins followed this message there are many on this site that would be extremely critical. They would be hating the Twins for being cheap. Can't have it both ways. Personally, I would follow their model but we would be able to keep a couple more top tier guys as our revenue is 40-50M more than the Rays.

I thought we get a pick if we make a qualifying offer. What's the rule?

I am hoping he performs great and then being optimistic on the market for him because that compensation round pick would be REALLY nice. Part of my thinking is that Boras is going to push hard on the years with Pelfry being 29 years old. Guthrie seems like a pretty good comp. He got 3/25M after posting an ERA of 4.76 and in previous years Guthrie and Pelfrey were pretty comparable. Seriously, am I missing something here. I want to have hope for that comp pick.

I think the big "IF" Pelfrey continues on this pace and has an ERA in the 3.5 range for June - Oct has gotten lost in this thread. It probably won't happen, but if it does, 3 years would not surprise me with all of the TV revenue that will be spent on next year's FAs. He is now a pitcher in his prime so should we be greatly surprised if a GM thinks Pelfrey can deliver 200 innings/yr and an ERA right around 4.00. 3.72 in 2008 & 3.66 in 2010 and was off to his best start in 2012 when he was injured. Now, a year removed from TJ surgery he is a pitcher in his prime with enough history to convince someone he is a reasonable bet. My interpretation of what Jeremy suggested was that he would not accept a qualifying offer IF he continued on this pace because someone would offer a multi-year deal. It would be a risk but worth it if there was a reasonable chance he rejects it.

I could be wrong but you have to believe the additional TV revenues are going to drive up prices, especially for SPs. The big IF here is can he perform close to the way he has in June and July for the rest of the season. He will only be 30 and a 3 year offer does seems fairly likely. If his ERA from June to the end of the season, he probably gets 3/24, maybe even more if he really looks sharp the rest of this year. What do you guys think Phil Hughes gets. His ERA was 4.19 in 2012 and 4.33 so far this year. WHIP of 1.26 / 1.29. Roughly 1.6HRs/9.

Very intriguing option, Jeremy. I agree with James in that it is only a slight overpay. Heck, if he keeps up the pace he has been on lately a qualifying offer would be market rate. This could explain why TR agreed to this one-year deal which is for all practical purposes a rehab. If TR thought of this angle when he signed him, I am impressed. IF, Pelfrey continues to pitch this well or even close to this well, he is going to get a 3-year offer from someone. He is not going to take a 1-year deal and that nets us a supplemental pick. Very nice. Man, I am going to be cheering for Pelfey in every start. The Twins still need more pitching prospects. How great would it be if the Twins could come up with 3 picks in the top 50? I have two words ... College SPs.

I read the entire thread and it seems to me people are ignoring there have been other issues with Sano. None of us are in a position to judge the discipline with the limited information we have but there is more to this story than this particular incident. As you said, his teamates and the 1st base coach were sure he had crossed the line. That is a very good indication on this specific incident without even considering preveious actions. Molitor, who is obviously much closer to the situation was not pleased with Sano's behavior when asked about it during his weelky interview on 1500. I am pretty sure none of us are in a position to question a guy with Molitors credentials, especially when he is far better informed than we are on the situation.

The Cards and Rays have to me the models to follow. Tampa is at the very bottom in terms of Revenue and they are keeping pace with Boston & NY. Boston has roughly double the Rays revenue and NY almost triple. We just be hiring someone from their organization to teach our organization how to draft and develop pitching.

Looking at the numbers Forbes publishes, the money gets spent with the exception of the rebuilding teams. Some of them have been the most profitable. I don't know how anyone thinks that allocating an incremental $750 to all of the teams is going to help us in free agency, especially next year when every team has an additional $25 to spend. This will be the worst season in the history of free agency to attempt to sign quality FAs.