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Major League Ready

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Everything posted by Major League Ready

  1. Major League Ready
    I hope so. We have so many question marks this season. It seems like a bad idea to give Doumit ABs. Can we get a C+ prospect?
  2. Major League Ready
    For a guy who will be gone about the time Buxton shows up and Sano has completed his 1st full year? You would trade an important part(s) of our future for a guy who might get us to a 500 record IF he can stay healty? And, that is a big IF. There is a pretty good chance you get very little for giving up 6 years of Meyer or Rosario for 2 years of BA. This would be a rather questionable decision if he were a "final piece". Such a move at this point of our rebuild would be inept.
  3. Major League Ready
    What are the odds he gets traded in the next couple weeks? Can we get more than a pair of batting gloves in return?
  4. Major League Ready
    You are segmenting the point and then interpreting it to meet your needs. No these are not parallel examples. I was responding to a whole series of posts made by Brock about long-term commitments or trading for players with 2 years of control left at this stage of rebuilding. Everyone is in a big hurry to get mediocre and are willing to make moves that are likely to be impediments when this team is ready to contend. In the case of trading assets like Rosario for short-term contribution is absolutely certain to be detrimental when our top prospects should be contributing to this team contending. That is the appropriate context. I used extreme examples to amplify the point. Do you think Jimenez is less risky? I guess I could have used BJ Upton if you want 5/75 examples. His OPS last year was .557. How about Edwin Jackson? BTW ... Epstein admitted in an interview with ESPN that move was premature. $15M is roughly 12% of the Twins max budget. These 5/75 players are still going to be in decline when this team is ready to compete and $15M/year is still a very significant portion of this team’s payroll.
  5. Major League Ready
    If you could dump Doumit. We could sign Kendry Morales. He would DH and back-up Mauer.
  6. Major League Ready
    How do you like that ... Mike and I agree. This is not such a bad deal if you are the Yankees. We won't really know for seven years. Recent history would suggest these 7+ year deals are likely to fail more than they succeed. How bad an idea this is would depend on the teams relative ability to absorb the contract.
  7. Major League Ready
    Thank you for this last series of posts. I just don't have the energy to explain these things over and over. I do it for a living so it is not fun to do it here. Fans think in terms of now and there desire to have stars on their teams. You would think the situation with players like A-Rod, Pujlos, Hamilton, Teixeria, Howard, and many free agent SPs who have been train wrecks would slow this roll. The top market teams can afford to have several of them fail and have the Twins budget left over. You would think what the As and Rays have done would leave an impression as to the best practices for a mid market team but fans want big names. Just look how often fans want us to sign guys because they used to be good. And, somehow people understand the cost associated with long-term contracts is that the player likely will significantly underperform the contract in the final years. Yet, the reality that the cost of adding a few wins now while there is no hope of contending will be the inability to pay for additional talent when it will count is somehow lost. GMs and others who have P&L responsibility have an entirely different way of viewing these things. It is a relatively rare skill set but I am saying nothing you don't already know. Thanks for participating.
  8. Major League Ready
    AJ going to Boston should help our chances of signing Salty.
  9. Major League Ready
    Last season he posted his best ERA since his first full year with the Marlins. What was different? Did he find something that he thinks is going to help sustain that level of performance?
  10. Major League Ready
    You have failed to consider several things in the way you framed this up. For starters, Harden was a long-shot. You can't hardly count that one with equal weight. In addition, the descisions you make to pass can be the most important decisions of all. In other words, you also failed to consider the numerous option all of us thought were better that were actually worse or much worse. This discussion also tends to have a short-term focus. The context of the discussion has to extend to years 4 and 5 when signing top free agents. We would have improved in 2013 had we signed Sanchez. We might have lost 88-90 games instead of 96. That's great if Sanchez is still performing at a similar level in 2016-17 when there is a chance we could contend. As we know, this is very often not the case with FA SPs.
  11. Major League Ready
    This comp perked me up. How nice would it be if we were on the other end of a Kyle Lohse type turnaround? The way I see it, we were not going to contend even if the 2nd SP was Kershaw. Nolasco and Hughes are a good bridge strategy. Let’s hope Gibson has a great sophomore season and Meyer comes on mid-season and pitches to his ceiling. They could replace Correia next year with one of the top of the rotation guys that should be available. Then you have … Shields / Bailey / etc Meyer Gibson Nolasco Hughes / Deduno / Worley It is not too far-fetched to believe we could be back in contention by 2015. If Hughes comes on like Lohse, Nolasco could be our #5. We are a long way from that scenario playing out. Gibson and Meyer have to reach their potential too but it is light at the end of what was a long/dark dark tunnel.
  12. Major League Ready
    Yes, that's part of the fun of following the minor league affiliates. It is particularily interesting following the Twins system right now because of the quality and depth. This is a big year IMO with so much potential in the lower part of the system. A big year throughout the system, especially top prospects, would bode well for our chances to build a true contender in the near future.
  13. Major League Ready
    It is true that his k/9 rate went down but until late in the year he produced a lot of very weakly hit GBs. However, it did not translate in terms of BABIP. That might be somewhat a product of his problems later in the season. His BABIP ended up the same as Liriano and Garza. K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB GB% HR/FB ERA Garza --- 7.88 2.43 1.16 .290 73.4% 38.6% 11.6% 3.82 Liriano --- 9.11 3.52 0.50 .290 77.6% 50.5% 8.3 % 3.02 Deduno -- 5.58 3.42 0.58 .291 73.7% 59.7 % 10.3 % 3.83 He had a good k/9 rate in AAA with the Twins. Now that he has some big league experience, it would not be unreasonable to believe he could increase that K/9 rate a little and tighten up the walk rate.
  14. Major League Ready
    Yes, his ERA was below 3.5 until toward the end of the season when the injury was becoming more problematic. I just don't get how little credit he gets. He was the only SP I was excited to watch last year. I wached Gibson hoping to see him emerge but that did not go so well. Deduno was the most entertaining for me.
  15. Major League Ready
    He seems like a decent candidate to put it together. As long as we are wishing... Let's hope Plouffe has a big 1st half and gets traded for value at the deadline making room for Sano after Sano has a big 1st half in AAA. I am pulling for Florimon to have a break out year with the bat because I love watching him play defense and how great would it be to solidify that position. Could Hicks be the most likely candidate?
  16. Major League Ready
    As long as we are grading on a 1-10 scale post, I would like to give this post a 12. As you have illustrated here, the process should be about building a sustainable winner. Most of the emphasis I see here is being as good as possible next year. Problem is that the first strategy generally impedes the second given the options available this year. Nolasco and Kazmir on a 3 year deal sounds ideal to me. Let's wee what we have in Gibson and Meyer this year. Next year's crop has several top of the rotation guys. If Gibson and Meyer live up to expectations, How good would 2015 look with Bailey (or equiv) / Meyer / Gibson / Nolasco / Kazmir look.
  17. Major League Ready
    They are the exeption, not the rule. They have already surpassed the point where most SPs performance tails off. Using anomlies as justification is a really bad idea. He could easily decline next year. Still, he was pretty good last year so two years is probably an exceptable risk. Three years has a high probability of failure. Edit: Sorry, I did not see Dave already pointed out they are the exception.
  18. Major League Ready
    That is the beauty of being a fan. LOTS of fans think they know how to run a MLB franchise better than those who have the job. Hard to imagine why they pay GMs $1M+ year when there are so many people working for $50K (or less) a year who can do the job better.
  19. Major League Ready
    Walker is one of the prospects I tend to watch closely. The optimist in me hopes this guy learns some plate discipline and develops into a star. I know the odds are not good but wow what a boost it would be to our team if he turned into a star.
  20. Major League Ready
    I had the same train of thought. $4M for nothing might seem like a bad business decision if it played out that way but it would be better than having $12M on the books if he just simply is no longer a compeitive SP. The same kind of deal might also work with Kazmir. You have to be a little skeptical of his resurgence but he might be a better bet given the age difference.
  21. Major League Ready
    Duplicate deleted.
  22. Major League Ready
    My post was obviously unclear. I would not touch one of these deals where top prospects are involved. I thought TB got by far the better end of the Meyers / Shields trade. Meyers is already a very good player and could very well be an all-star soon. Trading two years of Shields for 6 years of a highly productive, low cost Meyers, was a very bad deal for KC. I would not be a proponent of following their lead. Why not just wait until next year when there will be a few top of the rotation guys. The extension for Price is not going to be any better of a deal than the FAs next year and they don't cost of any of our top prospects. This type of trade also completely ignores where this team is in terms of the rebuilding process. We are not going to compete unless and until some combination of Buxton / Sano / Meyers / May / Dozier / Rosario and others take this team to contention. That is likely not until 2017 or maybe 2016 if everything comes together. IMO, this type of trade only makes sense if it is for a final piece. It makes no sense for a team that is at least 2 years for contention.
  23. Major League Ready
    I see a couple problems with this budget assessment. The cost of replacing Willingham 7M, Corriea 5.5M, Doumit 3.5M, Perkins 4M, Burton 3.5, & non-tender Duensing 2M is being ignored. It would take around $3M even if you replace them all with league minimum players. That would definitely be punting the 2014 season. We would likely be worse than we were in 2013. 52% of the $25M goes to payroll. Therefore, payroll budget is increased by $13. Regardless of the financial viability, this leaves us a starting rotation made up of a guy that has never thrown a pitch in MLB and 4 guys with big question marks and the back-end of a very good bullpen has been replaced with league minimum players. Not a good plan. I have no problem getting rid of any of these players but there has to be a better plan for bridging the gap to Sano / Buxton / Meyer / May / Rosario and others. Go offer Burnett a crazy amount for 1 or 2 years. Sign two of Kazmir, Feldman, Nolaso and Hughes. We would still have salary room to pursue the 2015 free agent crop of SPs which looks much stronger. If we get one of the 2015 SPs we can flip one of the 2014 crop.
  24. Major League Ready
    Bring back the like button for this one. This kind of trade has served the Rays and As very well. Why would we want to participate after watching this type of deal repeatedly favor the seller?
  25. Major League Ready
    Here is the problem with your argument. An hour to deliver your food would be substantially in excess of what is reasonably expected. In other words, it would be very abnormal. In comparing the FA process, it is very normal that little is done by Nov 21st regardless of how motivated a team is to sign players. We are not talking about ordering a burger. We are talking about negotiating an 8 figure contracts. Therefore it is not an excuse, it simply is the norm for people engaged in negotiations of this magnitude to take their time, conduct due diligence, and examine a number of options before executing a contract. To use your burger ordering analogy, to complain at this point would be the rough equivalent of complaining to the server after 3 minutes if your burger that takes 6 minutes to prepare is ready. You are not concluding anything here. The relevent information by which to base a conclusion does not yet exist. You are presuming.
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