Major League Ready

The people who evaluate farms systems are squarely in agreement with "some posters" here. Regardless of industry opinion, I think it is a safe bet to say some posters find it more fun to be optimistic where you seem to thrive on pointing out every possible point of negativity.

One of the best posts I have seen here in a while.

Are you not the same guy always complaining that they don't move players up fast enough? Of course, they could play him out of position for 3-4 years. That would pretty much assure he never becomes a legit starting SS. Obviously that plan is also flawed unless Buxton does not pan out. Many fans live in the right now which initiates all of the complaining. There were lots of people freaking out after the first week. Maybe that's why the F/O has not embraced a full rebuild mode. Fans cheered when they signed Santana. I hated it. They have three guys signed long-term leaving 2 spots for several guys that should be better than all of them with the exception of perhaps Hughes. That move (at least the initial signing) made sense because the contract covered his prime years and the price was right.

Worst idea ever. We have already retarded Santana development and why. So that we could win an extra game or two in 90+ loss season. I hope the front office finally starts embracing that we are a rebuilding team.

I would love to see Sano stick at third but his size does not bode well for that happening. Plouffe should bring back a player(s) that will help the club toward contention. Unfortunately, his size is going to make that very difficult. I have a friend who watched him carefully and met him in person. The man is just flat big. It would help if he was the type that would work hard on his body (ie. KLove & Bazz). However, that seem very unlikely. Maybe he was inspired by Yadier Molina this spring. He looked way better than previous years. It just amazes me that some "professional" baseball players don't stay in shape. Not to isolate Molina, I am just using him to provide a specific example, but was Molina's excuse for the last few years?

The quote is irrelevant. It is very obvious he is not in great shape. Sano could earn 10X what the average American earns in their entire lifetime in a single year. Is it too much to ask that a professional athlete manage his diet and work out. There is absolutely no excuse for a professional athlete not only to maintain their athleticism but do everything they can to improve it.

I find the quote from Sano basically saying he practices no discipline whatsoever maddening. With so much riding on his mobility, not to mention a difference in 10s of millions of dollars if he can stay at 3rd, it is flat out stupid on the players part and where the heck is his agent and the Twins FO. Someone needs to have a talk with this young man.

This drives me crazy. It seems very reasonable to expect a professional athlete to stay in shape. The off-season should have been a time to get in even better shape. (ie. Shabazz Muhammad & Anthony Bennett) This is especially true for players like Vargas and Sano who have body types that it is not too hard to pack on 30 extra lbs.

Hamels would require more than just Polanco. The net would be to move a couple of players that would very likely contribute to a contender a couple years from now. We maybe get to 500 but probably not if the projects without Hamels added are anywhere near accurate. So we get a very good pitcher today that enter what is normal the decline phase for most pitchers. We loose 6 years control and low cost for a couple players that are highly likely contribute to a contender if we don't manage to screw it up. Instead, don't try to make a real bad team into a bad team this year. Trade Dozier for a top tier prospect when Polanco is ready for another piece we need. Use the $22M Hamels would have been paid plus what you are saving in replacing Dozier as he heads into his arbitration years for a FA SP of Hamels caliber. The net is a SP of Hamels caliber plus Polanco, plus whoever else would be required in a Hamels trade, plus whatever you get for Dozier.

This team is projected to win 70 games. This team has no shot at a post season appearance. Managing personnel as if you do just retards the rebuilding process. I hope the FO does not burying their heads in the sand and manage our assets in the manner that best promotes rebuilding. We are going to suck so why not focus on development. Personally, if I am going to watch a 70 or 75 win team, I would find it far more entertaining to watch the young guys develop. Meyer showed good potential toward the end of the year and we know Meyer has a front of rotation ceiling. Let's invest in that potential instead of milking an extra win or two out of the season by starting Milone or Pelfrey. I would not be opposed to Milone being the long relief guy. He has managed to get it done over a significant sample size. Put him in the rotation or build trade value if he shows he can sustain the production in a long relief role.

The fact that we will have cheap talent the next few years is exactly why Mauer's contract is detrimental. Those funds could be used for a front of the rotation SP and that type of FA is going to be much more likely to come to Minnesota when Buxton, Sano and others are everyday players not to mention a future bullpen that looks to be awesome. I would love to have the aggregate salaries of Mauer, Nolasco and Santana instead of the players in 2017 and 2018. There are several guys in the system that will be better than Mauer at first base by then and I would not count on Sanata/Nolasco being impact SPs, especially after a couple more seasons. Take that money and invest in a true ace and with the $20M that is left over go fill whatever position is a hole. BY 2017 I like the odds of having 4 very strong SPs among Gibson / Berrios / Meyer / May / Stewart / Milone / Rogers / Duffey and perhaps the pick from this summer. However, I am not sure any of these guys is a true ace so the ability to go get one when our time finally arrives would be big and it will be most affordable while we have a young core.

It just makes no sense to extend right now. Polanco will be ready by 2016 or 2017 at the latest. Trade Dozier in the final 2 years of team control and get a nice return.. This also is one of the reason they need to figure out of Santana is a SS. If Santana pans out at SS, Polanco is our future 2B. I like Dozier but why in the world do you want to risk having big dollars tied up in Dozier. He will be less attractive as a trade asset or worse, his performance goes south and the contract is not only an impediment but you don't get anything in trade. You can also look at it this way. He performs great, you get a great return in trade during the last two years of team control. You replace him with Polanco or maybe even Michael in the next two years giving us more payroll to work with as the team becomes a contender. If he falls off, you don't have a big financial commitment to a mediocre player. The only way it's a good idea is if he improves quite substantially. I don't like the odds of that happening.

If I were a betting man, I would take even money on 76 wins with a +/- of two wins/losses.

Perhaps I should have said bottom half revenue because we would be closer to the middle if revenues rebound. It does not matter because the point remains the same Unless you don't think it matters there are a number of teams with $100M incremental revenue. Every year there is a team or two signing TV contracts that are $50-100+ million dollars more than the Twins.

I guess in a literal sense a farm system does not win MLB games but it is the most important element to the success or a failure of a MLB team in the bottom half of league in terms of revenue. This would assume international scouting and signings are part of the farm system operations. The ONLY probable way a bottom third revenue team is going to contend is by having inexpensive players produce.

It would make more sense to just bring Rosario north. Why give up any assets for a mediocre player. I would rather give Rosario the developmental opportunity. He is probably already far enough along already to out produces this guy.

Milone?

1) Lester got six years. Scherzer is not going to accept a 5 year deal. The goal of these elite free agents is to get paid for as many years as possible after their performance is likely to fade. 2) Elite FAs have their choice of where they want to go. Why in the world would he come to a team with a horrible defense. And, why would he chose a team that project to win 85 games or less even with him. Bidding so high he can't say no is too ignore reality. This might be possible if you are one of the couple of teams at the very top in terms of revenue. For a team near the bottom it is the equivalent of someone with a 40K income buying a $100K BMW. You might find a way to get it done but it is foolish.

The article does oversimplify the Twins situation. We should not plan everything around Buxton and Sano. That is risky and a reach. The fact that we have Buxton, Sano, Rosario, Polanco, Meyer, May, Berrios, Milone, Burdi, and others who should be ready soon makes a far more compelling case for avoiding long-term contracts on players past their prime. I am not sure if those who are advocates of timing FA additions are solely focus on winning at all. That definitely is not my focus in terms of timing additions. The focus should be on developing young players and retaining flexibility. In addition, when you are signing players to 4+ year contracts, the implications need to be considered for the duration of the contract. Next year we are going to have one spot available for May, Meyer, Milone, and Berrios. Yes, you can never have enough pitching but that needs to be put in context. We are not going to contend so what is the benefit of having Santana and Nolasco over someone like Hammel or Volquez who would not be on the payroll come 2017. These guys just might be better than Nolasco this year. Most likely case scenario is that the addition of Nolasco and Santana make a 4-5 win difference and the twins still finish below 500. Big deal. I would rather watch the prospects play and the sell tickets argument does not fly either. It is highly unlikely attendance increase enough to pay for Nolasco and Santana in the best case scenario this year. Anything less than best case scenario like Nolasco performing like last year or one of them getting hurt and it is a poor investment and that's this year. The likelihood of this investment paying off goes down every year of these contracts. They caved and applied a short-sighted approach. It still possible Nolasco and Santana beat the odds and perform well enough to be traded at some point over the course of their contracts. Unfortunately, it is more likely that they will delay development of players that are part of the solution. And, what are the odds that money could not be used far better elsewhere come 2017/2018? Winning it all is not at all the point but making the most of assets and building a team that is a legit contender requires more discipline, especially in a small to mid revenue market.

I am surprised there has not been any comment on the authors thoughts on the timing of spending which is very much in contrast to the opinion of many here. The concept of timing investment tends to downright irritate quite a few people here but I have to agree. Signing Hughes was a great move because the term covered his prime years. Nolasco and Santana were both signed to deals that statically extend into diminished performance and increased chance of injury. Worst of all they committed those funds into the years when this team SHOULD be ready to compete and the likely benefit of these moves is that they might get to 500. This team just does not understand the concept of rebuilding and that most likely means the mediocrity will be extended.

Baseball fans forget this is a business. From an ownership perspective, profitability and building team value/market price is somewhere very near the top of evaluation criteria for a GM. The Houston Astros and St. Louis Cardinals were the most profitable teams in baseball in 2013. I would rather do it the way the Cardinals did but the Astros were very profitable while at the same time building a strong farm system. I would imagine the Astros will also be the most or among the most profitable in 2014 when those results are published. This year they will add 2 top 5 choices to an already deep farm system. They have built a talented management staff and they are on the front edge of statistical analysis. While they were at the bottom in terms of wins/losses, Jeff Luhnow has done well.

I can't respond with a quote either. There is quite a bit more to it than missed picks or trades starting with leadership which none of us are even remotely close enough to the organization to decipher. The next aspect of the job I would put the most weight on, specifically for a lower revenue market team, is the farm system. I don't mean how the happen to rank right at this moment. Practices, methodologies, personnel, etc. I guess some folks might think we see enough of what goes on to judge but I could not possibly agree. I have a team on a similar assessment with a client right now. The engagement is scheduled for 9 months and 3,000 man hours with total access. Our environment has also changed. Our relative position in terms of revenue has changed. We are still closer to the bottom than the top but we can do some things now. Like buy some decent starting pitching. While most cheer this move, I can't get past the fact that we no have $50M a year tied up in Mauer, Nolasco, and Santana through 2017 and Mauer and Santana through 2018. Have we extended out mediocrity? Would you rather have $37M to spend on a top of the rotation guy in 2017 and have $10-12M left over to invest somewhere else? What are the odds these guys are above league average in 2017 and 2018. Mauer might still be pretty good but we have several guys who will be more productive by then for $22M less. There is a best case scenario where this works out but Nolasco and Santana would need to stay healthy and productive enough to be traded between now and the end of 2016. Maybe Nolasco and Santana can be turned and we actually get something for them. Let's hope they beat the odds.

Let's be really optimistic and add a little wrinkle. Sano tears it up and shows a solid glove at 3rd. Meyer starts at AAA and pitches to a sub 2 ERA. The Twins trade Plouffe and Nolasco to SF for Crick, Susac, and Meija. Meyer and Sano take over the spots vacated by the trade. I seriously doubt SF would trade 3 of their top 5 prospects but as long as were are being optimistic, lets hope for a big score.

I can't pick just one. Buxton and Sano, and Polanco because they have the potential to be perennial all stars. Berrios, Meyer, and May because we are not going to contend unless we develop SPs. AB Walker and Rosario because they could flame out or be great. How do you pick just one?

We have had consecutive 90 loss seasons. That's where we are. Perhaps more importantly, we have a number of prospects that should be ready in the next 2 years. I would hope where we are going is to build a contender and not sacrifice development for a few wins that might get us to 500. For example, Santana has the most value if he reached his potential as a SS so let's get on with that determination. Let's get Rosario here. I am not saying he needs to break camp but once he is ready are they going to sit Hunter in order to develop Rosario? Let's hope we finally embrace rebuilding.