Major League Ready

I see where you are coming from now. A little context always helps.

They have sucked since 2011. Prior to 2011, The Twins record was 2nd only to Oakland for teams outside the top 10 in revenue and they were better than some of the teams in the top 10 in revenue. If you don't think revenue is relevant, you are welcome to that opinion but the correlation between revenue and winning is very difficult to deny. Having said this ... what they did in the last 25 years is irrelevant to what action they should take. Falvey's job should be to take the actions necessary and most likely to produce a contender. It is really easy to say get rid of anyone that does not likely to be excellent. Where do they get all of these excellent players to replace our mediocre players? Give us some specifics. The SP is not available via free agency even if they had the Yankees revenue. Trade for it? We would need three excellent SPs. I am not sure if you could get that done even if you gave up Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Gordon, Berrios, Jay and Gonsalves. How do you propose Falvey acquire the excellence you suggest in a short time frame?

The point was I thought the reason he is here had nothing to do with the point you were making.. He has modest offensive numbers in 127 games at AA. Why would you think he is a guy to jump right from AA. It makes absolutely no sense and you were complaining about "if the reason" when it should be very clear that is not the reason.

126 games at AA with a .729 OPS and 347 OBP AA hardly screams that the guy should be here right now. Plus, he is not a good replacement for Grossman given he is a LHH. Grossman may suck defensively but that bat should be in the linepup vs LHP. He is really a better replacement for Rosario. IMO Rosario has a higher ceiling than Granite. If Rosario can develop his approach, he could be a very good MLB player. Personally, I am not too optimistic but why would you take ABs away from Rosario next year for a guy who is not ready to play at the ML level? At a minimum, give Rosario / Grossman the 1st half of the season with Granite, Palka and Walker at AAA. Hope that you end up with several OFers that can play at the ML level and trade from that position of strength.

Mauer is not part of the solution. Hopefully, the new regime will act accordingly, including Molitor. Falvey may not be able to fire Molitor next year but he is not the right man for the job if he cant persuade Pohlad to act like an organization that is rebuilding. This includes all of the appropriate parties being on the same page in terms of building the next contender. In other words, Falvey should be able to influence the direction of the club and these decisions regardless of his ability to terminate Mauer.

I had written almost the same thing. When I went to post it I saw you beat me to it. The top 30 players made $725M. The 30 teams collectively made $625M according to Forbes. With 3.6B paid to players and an average salary of almost $4M/year, the problem is not what the owners are paying out but how it is distributed. The players are getting paid insane money and they have simply not looked out for the MiLB players. Talk about greed! http://www.forbes.com/mlb-valuations/list/#tab:overall As part of the next CBA, the teams should all agree to construct housing and provide 3 meals a day. The MLBPA should agree that 1% of any contract in excess of $5M go to a fund to be distributed among minor league players. That would give the players roughly $1,000/month raise during the season. They should be given the option to remain in the housing during the off-season. The raise is salary and the housing/meals would be significant. The teams would make a significant contribution in housing and meals. Only the players making 10X or more what they would be willing to accept would contribute to the salary increase. Seems pretty fair those so fortunate to make an insane amount of money playing game be willing to contribute 1%. Kershaw will have to survive on $32,670,000 instead of $33,000,000 per year.

Mike, This is an incredibly one-sided point of view. MLB payed players 3.6 billion and an average of nearly $4M/player. To put that in context, the average player makes 100 times the average American for playing a game. They would work for a tenth the income in a heartbeat if that’s all the revenue model supported. To put this solely on ownership is incredibly naïve and biased. Players making over $5M/year collectively make nearly $30B. If 1% of the salaries paid to those players making $5M or more annually was redistributed to MiLB players, every minor league player could be given a $925/month raise. (assuming 180 MiLB players per organization) The MLBPA could make this happen in a heartbeat if the players making the most money would be willing to fund it. 1% freaking percent for guys making more than $5M/year. Please don’t talk to me about greedy companies when players are making this kind of money and won’t take care of their own.

The time has come that cutting Mauer is probably in the best interest of the team. There is no way the old regime would have cut him but maybe the new regime will make those hard decisions. Of course, you do have to wonder if the new guy wants to start by cutting the best know player, and local boy who always conducted himself as well as you could ask.

1. Shields was gone when they won in 15. Davis certainly was not the difference in them winning it all in 2015. The fact they won the WS after Shields left provides rather compelling evidence they just were not ready in 2014 and they certainly were not ready in 2013. 2. Of course, the fans would not take it back because it worked out. If you gave your child a check for $100Kst for irresponsible thing you have ever heard. Then, if the child said, by the way, I won $100M and I have a check here for you for $10M so you can retire, you probably would not regret the decision. The facts that it worked out does not necessarily mean it was a good decision and it certainly does not mean it was the best possible decision. 3. No matter how you slice it or dice it, the result of the trade was a mediocre team in 2013. That alone suggests they could have done better had they waited another year or two to make a move. There is also no getting past the result of the trade was a one game wildcard playoff game. In other words, the equivalent to when the Twins went to game 163. 4. Trading away 5 years of two very good players for a coin flip is not a good result. Of the hundreds of people I have met over my career with P&L responsibility for organization this size and bigger, I cant imagine any of them saying they would make that trade knowing the result was a coin flip. 5. I think they should have kept Odorizzi and traded Myers which I said at the time. Odorizzi was not far behind Shields by 2014. Shields ranked 12 on Fan graphs and Odorizzi was 27th. Shields WAR was 3.2 and Odorizzi was at 2.0. By 2015 Odorizzi was ranked 12th. He was not Shields in his prime but neither was Shields when he was in KC. So in 2015 they could have still had a rough equivalent to Shields for 4 more years during the period of time when all of their core was in their prime. If Shields was important to contention then, sure Odorizzi would have been important to their contention, just longer and when they were actually in their prime window. 6. We have not even discussed what they might have gotten for Shields that would have aided their cause of the years their core was in their prime and perhaps even provided replacements for those players who are currently the core. We can spin all kinds of scenarios but it is reasonable to assume they would have gotten a very good prospect package. What if it hit like the package that included Escobar. What if just got a really good 2B? They would have been better for several years. They also would not have need to trade for Zobrist. The net of that would be they would have been stronger at 2B and added Manea for the next several years. So, Had they kept Odorizzi and traded Shields with the modest assumption the only benefit was a good 2B, they would have added a number 2 SP in Odorizzi for six years, been better at 2B for 6 years, and whatever Manea turns out to be which looks something along the lines of Odorizzi. That is a very substantial impact on a team for 6 years. Do fans cheer it, sure. That does not make it even remotely the best decision and anyone who says they would make that trade knowing the end result is a coin flip has extremely poor judgment, IMO.

Are you saying that you would trade 5 years control of two very good players, the rookie of the year who would become an all-star and a 2/3 type SP if you knew the end result was a slightly above 500 team in 2013 and a one game shot at a playoff series in 2014?

Many baseball people said the Royals made that move too early. Personally, I believe they and had options that could have worked out better. After acquiring Shields / Davis, they had the 13th best record in 2013 at 86-76. They were obviously not ready. In 2014 they made the wildcard by the skin of their teeth. They had the 7th best record at 89-73 and were considered a long shot but they got hot in the playoffs. I believe it was Mike who recently said something to the effect that just because something works out, it is was not necessarily a good decision. If you asked every GM in the game besides DM, would they trade the Rookie of the Year who would be an all-star 3 years later and strong 3 perhaps even a 2 for the 13th best record in baseball in 2013 and a one game playoff to get a playoff series in 2014, every single one besides DM would answer absolutely not. Cueto was an entirely different deal because they were obviously ready. 10 cost controlled years of 2 players of that caliber. It’s not even close. Heck, they could have traded Odorizzi for the haul Miller brought. Miller and Odorizzi have almost identical career ERAs and WAR. Of course, Odorizzi would look very good in their rotation right now and would have extended the Royals window of contention. Add to that what Meyers could have got them in a major league ready 2B plus SP prospects? It could have turned out far better. What if they had instead kept Odorizzi and traded Myers for a ML ready 2B. Obviously, 20/20 hindsight but the rest of their infield was set for years to come so it’s reasonable to say they could have solidified their infield for years plus got a good AA SP with upside? They would be better today and for the next few years, plus they would not have needed to trade Manea for Zobrist. Manea was almost league average in his first year. They took a short-cut and got very lucky. However, they could have used a different strategy that would have extended their window of contention considerably. They would probably be in play-off hunt this year and they won the WS after Shields left. Why were they able to win the WS after Shield left and not when they still had him? Well, that’s debatable but the most straight forward answer is their team just had not matured to the point where they were ready prior to 2015. Yes, Davis is not really considered here but I don’t think anyone in the KC organization could say they saw him as a lights out bullpen arm when the deal was made. Their plan had to be that those two SPs was enough SP because they believed their young core of position players were ready to win the division. You don’t trade 2 players of that caliber for a wildcard. They were not ready but got hot which was incredibly fortunate. They were a couple innings away from that deal being a disaster. Summary, they could have had Odorizzi and Manea in their rotation this year. Plus, Odorizzi for three more years, and Manea for 5 years. Plus, whatever they got for Meyers. We will see if they can still win the division before their core hits FA but their odds could have been improved dramatically had they taken a better long-term strategy. This sounds like a bunch of assumption need to come to fruition in this scenario but all they had to do was keep Odorizzi and get a good 2B in return for Will Myers. I don't think that is at all a stretch. They would have also gotten other prospects unless it was one heck a major league ready 2B but this scenario does not require anything more than a good 2B in return for Myers. There is even more upside had they gotten more.

I did not say you would get "two 2s a 2 ½, and two 3s". I said I would take that over 5 guys that that represent the statistical average for 1-5 starters. I agree it would be optimistic. You are being too literal. That group gives us plenty of prospects to construct a good staff. I also said a FA could be part of the construction of the staff and the context of the top pick is that it could be a key part of the rebuild. You also constructed your own version of what I said about that top pick. The exact quote was “we all know to pick the BPA but if its close let’s hope the Twins can get a stud college starter worthy of being the 1st or 2nd pick.” In other words, given the situation, let’s hope that top pick is a college SP. A top college starter is probably a big disappointment if it takes 3-4 years for them to get to the majors. Rodon was in the big leagues within a year. I have not seen anyone here suggest the farm system has a bunch of guys that are going to be studs. Quite the opposite. Most, including me, have said there are plenty of guys that can be good but the system really does not have guys that look to have ultra high ceilings. .

Let’s not give up the ship so soon. Any rebuild has a great deal of uncertainty, especially as one as comprehensive and this team. The Royals are a good recent example. It took their core a few years to come together and the expectations were for it to all fall into place immediately. Sano, Buxton, Kepler, Palonco, and Berrios are great talents with high ceilings. Rosario, IMO, also has potential although probably at the level of the others. He show the raw ability and if he figures out his pitch recognition/approach, an Alex Gordon comp is not completely insane. Grossman actually is a pretty good 4th outfielder to fit with this group he flat out rakes LF pitching. Sano has shown good mobility at 3B. I would love to see him show up next spring 25 lbs lighter and announce he spent the off-season working on defense.. Vielma could be here by the middle of 2017. It could work out to trade Dozier before the deadline, move Polanco to 2B and Vielma to SS. They just need to improve at catcher. I don’t know if that’s Garver or Turner but they need to resolve the catching situation through trade or free agency if one of those guys does not step-up next year. We are starting almost from scratch on starting pitching. The good news is that we are not reliant on a couple guys making it. Santana is pretty solid and May will likely be back in the rotation next year. We also several good prospects in Berrios, Jay, Gonsalves, Stewart, Romero, Meija, and we can probably count Thorpe in that group of good prospects as well. That six good prospects to go along with May. Granted, none of them look like an ace at this point but I will take two 2s a 2 ½, and two 3s and day over 5 guys that that represent the statistical average for 1-5 starters. The former is much more reliant on a couple guys. If one goes down … you are in trouble. We are also going to have the #1 or #2 pick next June. Yes, we all know to pick the BPA but if its close let’s hope the Twins can get a stud college starter worthy of being the 1st or 2nd pick. We might look back at this season and say it was worth it if we get an ace and #1 or #2, especially if he is a college SP who can join the rotation in less than 2 years. We have 9 or more prospects that to be part of the 2019 staff. . #1 - 2017 #1 pick #2 – Berrios / Jay / Romero #3-4 - May / Thorpe / Stewart / Jorge / Meija I can see if other might rate the ceilings of Romero, Thorpe, and Jorge differently but the point remains the same. There is plenty to work with in our farm system. Play it out. If you want to make a big move, sign an international free agent or a regular free agent SP in 2018. Santana, Hughes and Perkins are off the books after 2017 and Mauer after 2018. We have not even added the potential pieces from trading Dozier if that happens. Right now a SP at AA who eventually becomes a 2 and AA guy who becomes a slightly above average catcher, and a couple lottery tickets sounds pretty good. That’s a lot of assets from which to construct a team and we should be able to make significant improvement every year for the next 3-4 years and become a contender.

This is really it in a nutshell. How important is it to be a little better the next couple years? Obviously, that depends on the trade package. Why give up Dozier if the package coming back is not going to solve the problem? Of course, nobody here is likely to disagree with this position but you also think you have to set the bar at a "haul" and you probably are not going to get top of the rotation guys already in the majors. The teams who will trade for Dozier are in a window where they are contending. They are not trading top of the rotation guys.

OK. Let's pretend those players don't leave for free agency and the team losses the opportunity to acquire assets that would improve the team for years to come. For example, when the Tigers opted to let David Price go and got two SPs that are a big part of them being in contention and will be an important part of the team for at least 6 years each. They were both part of the rotation less than a year after their acquisition. I am assuming you don't think doing nothing is the answer so how do you propose to fix our pitching or lack there of?

Seth, I don't think there is a link. I heard it while driving on XM radio. His show Minors and Majors is on Sunday mornings.

Never count out the guy out with a ton of talent and a great work ethic.

This is basically what Paulsen was saying. He said he gets a lot of weak contact. IDK without seeing him pitch on multiple occasions. I do know we really need what he's got to transfer to the majors. He's not going to be an ace but I would be thrilled with three 2s and two 3s after what we have been watching for several years.

Grant Paulsen had Steven Gonsalves on his radio show this morning. One somewhat interesting thing came out of the interview was that Paulsen asked Gonsalves about the organizational philosophy. Gonsalves said it changed a couple years ago. They had been teaching pitch to contact. The last couple years they have been teaching them to go for K when ahead in the count. Later in the show, John Manual from BA was on. He was part of the group at BA that put together the minor league all-stars. He was quite high on Gonsalves and they talked about Gonsalves much longer than any other prospect. Manual and Paulsen both used Dallas Keuchel as a comp and they seemed to conclude Gonsalves was overlooked because of his FB is low 90s. It's going to be interesting to see where he ends up on various lists this off-season.

Well Chief, you do have a point. In the first paragraph I was simply trying to point out this premise is unreasonable in that it assumes we can just outbid every other team for premier agents and that they all want to come here. The 2nd and 3rd paragraphs do not take the extreme example of the first paragraph literally. Free agency is a tool this team should use. They just need to be very smart and timing is part of the equation. The answer is there is no way the twins could afford 3 premier free agents. However, I do think they could afford a front of the rotation starter plus whatever other hole needs the most attention. They can do this and still extend a couple of their key young players if they are patient and let this core come together. That includes all of the SP prospects (Berrios / Gonsalves / Jay / Romeo / Stewart / Meija and perhaps their pick nexct June. Of course, the reason for this is that would have a large portion of their 25 man roster in their cost controlled years. I say this recognizing that there are only two instances of teams this century with equal or less revenue than the Twins that have landed this type of SP. The Rookies in 2002 (Hampton) and Grienke last year. I am not sure we can count Grient given Arizona had just received a billion dollar TV deal. Plus, while some here advocated for going after Grienke, most posters here would agree that contract was a very bad idea for Arizona. I would also concede the over pay is indicative of the difficulty of landing these players for a team that is not in a major market.

If you are talking about the NY, LA or Bos, this is a good point. It's ridiculous if you are talking about the twins. You are suggesting that a team at a revenue disadvantage of $150-250M/yr as compared to those teams should be able to outbid them for the best free agents three years in a row. There are 30 teams but we should get the best FAs. You and others also advocate just do it now. You have asked me several times how long should we wait as if after a certain number of years this must be done. It should be done when the core has matured and the final pieces are needed. How many years we have sucked is not relevant to when a team should pursue a premier FA. Did the Mets, Royals or Pirates go out and spend on FAs during their extended period of losing? The reality of the strategy you advocate is that those players are very likely good for about half of the contract. This team would be better for sure but certainly not a contender. Then, when our young core grows up, we have $80-90M/yr in players well below their prime that could have been invested in productive players. In other words, you have opted to add these FAs when we suck instead of when we have the team around them to contend.

I would agree there were no advocates here of exactly what Arizona did last year. However, on a more conceptual level, many people here wanted a win now approach. There was support for trading Buxton, Kepler, and Berrios for players with 2-3 years remaining. Shelby Miller was not seen as an ace here but he was seen as a very good pitcher and rightfully so. Many people would have done back-flips for Grienke. I recall a few people complaining because they knew the FO would not consider Grienke or Price. I would not go so far as to say they should never consider a free agent top of the rotation guy but last year was certainly not the time and I said the exact same thing then. Grienke and Price are under contract for 5 and 6 years respectively for $30M+ and they are already showing regression, especially Grienke. What a disaster it would have been to bring them in. Lucroy received a lot of support. He would have been here through next year and there were those who supported Kepler + others for LuCroy. That would have been a disaster! Several people had a fit because they would not sign RPs to as long-term deal. I recall very specifically, that this move and these players was not consistent with a contender. No kidding, there was no way we were contending and nearly every national media source predicted a last source place finish. Yet, there were many here who were furious because they were not making moves that were consistent with a win now or all in mentality. So, while Nick’s article may not have been exactly what anyone here had in mind, the win now and spend big on FAs was definitely promoted here.

There has been a lot of complaining here about we never sell high? I am not positive that we can but it has become a no-brainer for me after reading the debate. The reasons are as follows. 1) It is going to take more than a year to get into contention. 2) Dozier is signed for two years. No way would I count on or want the Twins to pay what it will take for the number of years it will take if he continues to produce. The point is moot if he does not continue to produce at this level. 3) Between May, Berrios, Gonsalves, Jay, Stewart, Romero, Meija, and hopefully a stud college SP next June, we should be able to build a very good staff. The bonus to all that low price pitching will afford us the opportunity to sign an elite free agent to fill whatever role is necessary. 4) Mauer, Santana, Nolasco, Hughes, and Perkins are off the books after 2018. If we build from the farm, we will be in a great position to extend our young core and still afford premium FA talent. 5) We have plenty of offense, especially if Buxton pulls it together as I expect he will. Polanco should be better defensively. 6) We have a great glove first SS in Vielma a year away and Gordon right behind him to pair with Polanco at 2B and Gordon is not far behind.

Yes! Why take away ABs from Vargas and others with a better chance of making it. I was on the ABW bandwagon and watched the box scores for signs he was improving his contact rate because he could be a real contributor if he could improve his contact. I am over it now. If somehow he manages to get it together, great but he has made no improvement over the past two years. That makes him very suspect in terms of making it on any MLB roster.

I understand this is a possibility. I was looking for specifics. In other words, what kind of prospect package would it take to get a front of the rotation starter in his prime? We should also keep in mind that Shelby Miller was not the first SP to regress after a trade. There we several people that suggested it would have been worth trading a prospect to get Shields. He is now one of the worst SPs in the league and we would be stuck with him and the $44M remaining on his contract for the next 2 seasons. An ace that is not at that age where they could decline soon is going to cost a king’s ransom. It’s easy to say go trade a couple prospects but what is the reality. I would think it would take of our best young ML ready players plus a couple decent prospects or a bunch (4-5) good prospects. This is the type of trade made by a contender. I can’t come up with an example of a rebuilding team that has made this type of trade with the exception of Arizona last year. Of course, Miller was not an ace and they are a real good example of why rebuilding teams don’t make these trades.