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Major League Ready

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Everything posted by Major League Ready

  1. Major League Ready
    Yes. I do believe the Twins are positioned to acquire a top SP without creating a situation where the team can’t be kept together as the cost of some of the key players increases. (Berrios / Sano / Buxton / Garver / Rodgers and perhaps even Duffy) I gave some specifics on that a couple weeks ago. Wheeler was the guy I wanted so I am disappointed. However, my point of contention here is that a fair number of posters subscribe to the do it any cost philosophy. It’s unrealistic and exceptionally poor management practice. His price is already so high it becomes quite questionable to match the Phillies much less “blow him away” with something beyond that amount.
  2. Major League Ready
    Why do you want to see that they will pay whatever it takes. What proof do you have that this practice will result in success for a team that profiles (in terms of revenue) like the twins. Show me two examples of teams with equal or less revenue where they signed a FA starting pitcher to 5 or more years at $100M+ and went on to make it to the world series. Not win, just make it. There is a lot of protest here based on an assumption this would result in success. Prove it! Show me a team that has done it in the last 20 years.
  3. Major League Ready
    I would bet the Twins knew when they got involved that it was going to take $100M. Also, let's not take too much stock in the reported offer. Who knows maybe the offer was 6 yrs at 17M/yr. Maybe it never happened at all.
  4. Major League Ready
    I have two questions. 1) Can he pitch? 2) Why would a 97 win team trade away an elite position player with 4 years of control, especially a low revenue team like the As?
  5. Major League Ready
    I will jump in the guess CJ Cron's arbitration salary with 6.6M prediction.
  6. Major League Ready
    You are being kind to Pineada. I am amazed, given the dollars involved, professional athletes allow themselves to get so out of shape. You would have to believe the Twins and other teams would be more inclined to sign him to a multi-year deal if he shed some weight.
  7. Major League Ready
    He was my choice because he has the best stuff and I would like to think Johnson can help him make the most of that stuff. As a matter of fact, that would be part of my pitch to him. I also had him at the top of my list because of the physical characteristics to pointed out. Guys with this build age better. Maybe I just think this because it makes sense but Verlander, Grienke and others would support this notion. Your point about the other GMs validation is well-taken. They have superior information and a team of people assessing these players. It's a pretty bold assertion that he is a bad bet when so may teams have a high level of interest in him.
  8. Major League Ready
    IDK … There is always a demand for SPs but it seems like there is as much demand as ever this year. Given the way Pineda was pitching before the suspension, I would think there will be a fair amount of interest in him. MLB Rumors had him 17trh overall, two spots ahead of Gibson. They had Gibson predicted for 2/18 and of course he got 3/30. I just don’t see Pineda still looking for a job when spring training starts. 2/20 with a 3rd year option sounds pretty good to me.
  9. Major League Ready
    Winning fills the stands. There has been countless examples of teams with superstars that don't win and don't fill the stands. I recall similar statements being made about Cueto a few years ago, Darvish two years ago, and blanket statements about going all-in for the big RPs on the market last year. Blind faith has it's charms but I don't want our team run with it. We should also ask if spending $35M+ on one player is the best way to build a winner outside of a top revenue market. Why haven't GMs of other mid or small revenue teams have ever made a similar signing with the exception of Arizona when they had just signed a billion dollar TV contract? Are these big names FAs just not inclined in general to sign with a small/mid market team. Have the dozens of GMs that have been in this position all incompetent? Why doesn't it happen. Arizona got Greinke but that was a very abnormal set of circumstances. Washington signed Scherzer but their incremental revenue more than pays for Scherzer so while Washington is a closer comparison than the Yankees or Dodgers, their revenue has been substantially higher than the Twins or other teams below the twins in terms of revenue. I would be quite happy with Wheeler and Pineda.
  10. Major League Ready
    Depends ... I am not going to assume to know the affect of the banned substance based on what is reported. I'm a fan, not a doctor and I only have the reported information to go on. If the Twins still have confidence, I think he fits nicely into the plan, especially on a 2-year deal. At the start of the off-season, I thought it was realistic to get Wheeler and bring back Odo and Pineada. Wheeler on a 4 or 5 year deal, Odo, one year, Pineda on a 2 year contract makes us better next year and allows us to transition Graterol / Balazovic and others over the next 2-3 seasons. Wouldn't it be nice to talk about it being hard for our prospects to crack the rotation.
  11. Major League Ready
    Of the players contributing 1.5 WAR or more to 2019 playoff teams Houston had two 1 yr deals w/FAs Yankees had two 1 yr deals w/FAs Dodgers did not have a single FA or player they traded for Atlanta had 2 1yr free agents and no 1.5+ WAR players acquired by trade Oakland had 2 1yr free agents and 1 1.5+ WAR player. They did acquire six 1.5 WAR players via trade. However five of them were acquired as prospects. Tampa Bay also had 2 1yr free agents and 1 1.5+ WAR player. They acquire a whopping eight 1.5 WAR players via trade. However seven of them were acquired as prospects. This includes the trade or Archer (established) for Glasnow and Meadows who had not yet established themselves. The WS champion Nationals did trade for Adam Eaton (2.4 WAR). Milwaukee had two place holders in Grandal and Moustakis who were 2nd and 3rd to Yehlich in WAR. The results don’t agree with you position.
  12. Major League Ready
    Is there a better option available for $7M and is he available on a 1 year deal? Hey, if you can upgrade at 3B, that's not a bad way to go but Cron for another year until (hopefully) one of our AAA guys forces their way onto to the team is a good plan too.
  13. Major League Ready
    Avila would be a nice back-up to Garver and add a veteran presence with young pitching. I had not thought about Kendrick but he would be a good bridge if we could get him on a 1 year deal. Would prefer to see the rumor of Josh Donaldson come to fruition and move Sano over. Wow... that would be a scary offense. Add Wheeler and Pineada and you have a 105 win team, right!
  14. Major League Ready
    You are failing to include payroll taxes and benefits in payroll. (approx $15M)
  15. Major League Ready
    While it would require a financial model to sort out the exact financial impact, the difference with all the none tax states averages around 2%. It's not inconsequential on a 100M contract but its also not going to have much impact on our ability to sign FAs. Where cost of living is concerned, the primary difference will be in housing and that's more of an investment for a ML player than an expense. They are going to most likely sell that house when they move on so the impact is basically the difference in property taxes. Any other cost of living differences are of no consequence. So, I really doubt income tax rates or cost of living has an impact expect the no tax states. An extra $4M (assuming 50% paid in other states) on a $100M contract is somewhat advantageous to those teams trying to recruit FAs.
  16. Major League Ready
    Good point. It sounds much easier until you have to come up with a list of candidates. Although I am a little confused as to if you are saying from a playoff team or a non-playoff team.
  17. Major League Ready
    Great. I think we would all love to get Darvish for a medium prospect. However, he was good the 2nd half last year and appears to be healthy. He posted a K/9 of 12.63 / xFIP of 2.45 and 2.4 WAR after 7/1. That does not sound like someone that gets traded for a medium prospect.
  18. Major League Ready
    I would like to think they would be closing this deal as we write here. IDK, maybe all of the teams have the reservations expressed here but then why are so many teams looking at him. It will be very interesting to see what it takes. I like that he has or at least it appears he has the highest ceiling of any of the FAs not named Cole or Strasburg. I would like to think Wes Johnson can help him harness his stuff.
  19. Major League Ready
    Dangling suggests he is an attractive addition. He had negative WAR last year and costs $16M/year. Not so attractive.
  20. Major League Ready
    I right with you. Why give up Arreaz unless it's a great fit. As I understand it, Bryant's grievance could mean that it would only be 1 year of team control. No way would I give up Arraez for 1 year of Bryant so I doubt they consider Bryant until that grievance is settled.
  21. Major League Ready
    We have a lot of infield depth so it's much easier to cover the trade for Arraez than it is to come up with good SPs.
  22. Major League Ready
    A trade of Arraez for Yu Darvish take 21.5M off the books for the Cubs who seem very reluctant to exceed the Luxury tax.
  23. Major League Ready
    The variance in expected performance varies greatly for FAs and trades for established players. So, based on this logic we can't evaluate free agent acquisitions or trades for MLB talent either until their contracts have expired. I think it's perfectly reasonable to assess those trades as of today.
  24. Major League Ready
    Agree with everything you say but there seems to be an underlying assumption (not in your post but with some others) that they can prove that dealing prospects for proven MLB talent is the best practice because prospects are unreliable. Playoff rosters don’t support this conclusion and within this data lies a more important comparison … the gap in success rates between teams. In other words, success is not driven by a team’s willingness to trade prospects but their relative ability to draft or trade for prospects and then develop them, especially teams in the bottom half of revenue generation. I don’t support the thinking we devalue prospects because the former regime was not good at drafting and developing, I don’t want a change in tactics. Instead, let’s execute better and become the best at drafting and developing. Ironically, that change would allow them to make more trades and retain the financial ability to add through free agency.
  25. Major League Ready
    The point is that there are times (like now for the twins) it makes sense to sign 4+ yr free agents. However, it's not essential and you beat this drum constantly as if there is no chance without signing this type of deal. Look at the highest contributors for LA. All of them home grown. They had a high payroll for years because they were still paying for guys that had not played for them for a couple years. The one year argument is absolutely bogus. Again, you refuse to accept the obvious. They have averaged 96 wins over the past 7 seasons and they have an exceptional core of young players. They will continue to be good. You bang the same drum without examining the models of success right before your eyes. BTW ... I know Corbin produced 4.8 fWAR. Morton produced 6.1 on a 2-year deal.
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