Major League Ready

OK. There should be plenty of examples if your position is valid. Give us examples of the ace type SPs that have signed with small or mid-market teams. I will give you Grienke to Arizona but there needs to be an asterisk on that one given they were about to get a billion dollar TV contract. Back up your position with facts that prove this strategy has been executed by teams in a similar position.

If they let Schoop / Castro and Perez go, the payroll decrease is a little over $60M. They do have quite a few arbitration cases but you have to believe the net would cover Odorizzi, Pineada and a Wheeler type SP. Plus, revenue is up so there is payroll capacity. Then, there is always the possibility of other moves like trading Rosario. I don't believe they could get the type of ML SP we need this year but the difference in his 2020 compensation being added to the mix could make Strasburg or Cole possible. Of course, having the payroll capacity and convincing them to play for a mid-market team are two different things.

I would like to see him split time between 3B and CF next year. He could be a plus defender in CF and he has the potential to be one of the better bats in the league at that position. Let's find out where his greatest value is defensively and build some flexibility at the same time.

These are your frustrations. Why should Rocco share them? He had absolutely no ties to the organization when these things happened. He was the competition for part of it. Why should he have any frustration with the Team’s past? He would have been wise to say something like … I understand the frustrations of the fan’s who have endured a lack of playoff success. However, from his perspective, the team went from 78 to 101 wins. He should be disappointed with the playoff performance but why should he be frustrated with a season that started with many questions and ended with 101 wins? Seems to me you want him to share your frustration and that makes no sense. He did not live through your frustrations as a Twins fan.

The post I replied to suggested a net 19 win loss if we did nothing more than kept Odorizzi & Pineda. It seemed to me that was a reactionary comment. Cole or Strasburg would be great but they are longshots. It's very rare that type of free agent SP signs outside of the biggest markets. They want the limelight and in some cases the endorsement dollars that go with it. However, in this scenario of keeping Odorizzi & Pineda, we can replace Gibson with Wheeler / Kuechel / Bumgarner or even Anderson and get better. They could exercise the option for Perez or renegotiate a deal with him if they can’t do better. Personally, I would fill the 5th starter between Dubnak / Graterol and Smeltzer and spend the money to retain Odorizzi and Pineda and the best outside FA we can get. They need to focus the dollars at the top of the rotation to become more playoff viable. We can also pick-up a rental for playoffs if the opportunity presents itself.

I think just about everyone here would say they need to do better than to retain Odorizzi and Pineda. However, to suggest they go backward 19 games from 2019 with a net difference of losing Kyle Gibson is a bit dramatic.

Agree but part of it is also that everyone wants the truly elite free agent SPs and Minnesota is down the list or not even on the list of places they want to play. It's tough for a mid-tier technology company to recruit people being courted by Google. However, I think they would make the deal IF Cole would come here and the price is not absolutely insane. BTW ... I would applaud that move (now). If that can't happen I would still be happy to see two of Odorizzi / Wheeler / Ryu / Kuechel / Bumgarner. Might throw Anderson in there as well. Would like to see Pineda signed too. They can afford Pineada and two others and still keep this team together for a few years.

Timing is one of those concepts that is not well-received here. I have "heard it" for suggesting the timing was wrong in the past. My opinion does not matter but the actions of GMs around the league are consistent in terms of timing their moves. I expect our FO to act accordingly as well. This team is in a very different position than even 6 months ago. The FO will be in on just about every impact arm. Its not like their are a dozen and we can't just get anyone we want unless we are willing to pay a ridiculous premium which is not a good practice. However, I think we can expect them to be aggressive now that the team is positioned to make a run for the next 3-4 years and possibly beyond. I don't understanding immediately going to doubting them when they just improved the team by 20+ wins in 1 year.

Very true and I agree. There is no endorsement in what I wrote for the FO standing anywhere near pat. The point is that many continue to complain that the FO has not done the things that were endorsed here when it is now very clear the majority of those things would have been somewhere between bad and disastrous. To continue in the light of hindsight demonstrates an unwillingness to objectively evaluate these strategies. Now is the time. Why would anyone doubt they are targeting impact pitching? We will still be at a disadvantage in attracting that talent via free agency which is another area some fans refuse to accept. Having said this … we are much better positioned than we have been in a long time. We have an elite offense returning everyone that matters with the exception (possibly) of Castro, the organization is gaining respect around the league. We are also positioned financially. Revenue is increasing and we will be shedding $17,650 in dead salary from Reed, Hughes, Parker, Santana, and Morrison. Schoop is another 7.5M and $2m decrease for Cruz. Odorizzi, Gibson, and Pineda represent another $25,625,000. That’s a total of $52,775,000. This assumes they keep Castro. Of course, there will be a fairly significant increase from arbitration increases but they have payroll available.

Mike, This is exactly the type of absolute refusal to acknowledge the facts that I was speaking of. Find one example you can take exception with out of several examples and rest your case on that example. What about all the others. The fact is this team would be an in sad shape now and the future had the team followed the majority of moves endorsed here. I can go all the way back to Ellsbury who you absolutely insisted was the right move for the Twins. BTW ... Darvish was 53rd in fWAR right behind Gibson and Pineda. Characterizing this as one of the best pitchers in the game is just another example of how fanaticism precludes rational assessment of team building practices.

Great post! I would add that people need to be a bit more reflective of where we would be if the Twins would have done many of the deals that were promoted here. For example, many were sure that signing the top FA relief pitchers was a no brainer. There were 9 RPs that signed with a new team for $7M plus. Britton resigned with NY which is a little different than a player switching teams because it’s nearly impossible to sign a player when he wants to sign with his old team and they are the highest revenue team in the league. The RPs signing with new teams for 7M+ AAV received a total of $83M AAV and collectively they produced negative WAR. Only Soria (.4) WAR and Ottavino (2.2 WAR) produced positive WAR. If we are at all objective, signing the players the Yankees want is a very tall order. Realistically we were vying for the other 8 and they were all very bad and we would have $20M+ less to spend next year had the team followed the path they are being criticized for not taking. This is just one example. Chris Archer was a popular target here. That wasone of the worst moves of the last 20 years and would have been an absolute disaster. JT Realmuto is great but we got the same production with giving up the considerable package necessary to get him. Before Realmuto it was LuCroy. Some here included names like Kepler in the Realmuto trade. Both moves would have been horrible long term. Darvish … same story. Johnny Cueto was touted by a few people as an absolute must move. Sonny Gray got some love here the year two years ago when the Yankees got him. He sucked. And, on and on. People should stop to think about how disastrous the moves promoted here would have been before they criticize the front offices for not operating as boldly as some fans insist upon. It’s easy when you not accountable.

I don't see resigning a free agent in the same light as signing a FA from another team. Perhaps this is a tad optimistic but historically players have shown a preference to sign with their current team. It does not seem unreasonable to think we can sign 2 of the 3. Signing one of the top tier guys is always a challenge for a small or mid market team. It will be a challenge which I acknowledged. Many of those players want the spotlight of a big market. Keep in mind this started with me saying the team is well-positioned, meaning we are positioned financially and the team is now quite attractive to free agents who want to win. If they were able to get one of the top guys, I could see them only signing one of the current 3 and filling the 5th spot from within. I could also see Gibson/Pineda being resigned because they won't be crazy expensive and the term will be 2-3 years Back to the point that started this tangent ... This team has a very good core, a deep farm system including a handful of potential stars still in the minors and no dead weight contracts after this year. Plus, we will be coming of a season with near 100 wins. That's pretty darn well positioned.

What are the 3 moves to which you refer?

That’s a good question. Sano / Buxton / Berrios and Rogers will get raises but I would expect the revenue increase over last year will just about cover it. Plus, the FO is going to have much more confidence in sustaining or increasing revenue next year. We have $57M coming off the books. (Hughes / Santana / Reed / Castro & Schoop / Odorizzi / Gibson / Pineda. They will let Schoop go for certain and probably Castro. We can afford two of Odorizzi / Gibson / Pineda and still sign one of the top free agent SPs. As I said earlier, we are well-positioned. Now, we need to execute signing a top free agent SP.

I think trading Rosario this off-season could be a good move but I doubt the same team that wants Rosario (2 yrs control) is going to give up starting pitching. Any team interest would be in a window of contention and unlikely to trade starting pitching. Perhaps a 3-team trade or trade Rosario for prospects and use those assets or similar assets to trade for pitching. Of course, Like everyone else, I would prefer they sign Cole but that will be a tall order. Bumgarner or / Wheeler would be nice upgrades and Keuchel might be an option as well.

They also retained the considerable prospect package needed to sign Realmuto. Plus, Garver is under team control until 2024. Realmuto has one more year of control. We will never know which prospects would have been traded away so we will never know just how bad it could have been. We will have to wait for 4-5 years to evaluate the Alcala / Celestino trade. Thus, the need to wait on the Pressly trade and not the proposed Realmuto trade. If Pressly is out or ineffective this post season, Pressly's value would have been minimal to the Twins over the past 1 1/2 seasons. Alcala / Celestino could be very good ML players and contribute 6 years each to this team. Right now the value received could be nothing or great but there is the potential for the gain to far outweigh the cost.

The Twins have $57M coming off the books next year. They could probably retain Gibson, Odorizzi and Pineda if they so wished and they have an option on Perez. I believe they will they will make a hard push at someone better than all four of them and perhaps better than Berrios. They will have the budget and finally a team a FA who cares about winning will want to join. I do not see a problem resigning two of Odorizzi / Gibson / Pineda at a cost of $22-27M depending on which two are signed. They can afford a $25M+ AAV pitcher and there are enough FAs better than this group that we should be able to improve the rotation through free agency. This is a considerably better team next year if they add one of the premier FA starting pitchers. Obviously, those guys are hard to sign but this team has never been positioned better to attract/sign a top tier SP. Bottom line is they won’t have a problem signing an equivalent staff and a good chance to make significant improvement. The offense returns everyone who matters next year and the only position not set for multiple years is 1st base and DH. Those two positions are the easiest to fill and who knows maybe Cruz as more in the tank and can be resigned.  They also have club control of the two highest WAR offense players (Kepler/Polanco) through 2024/2025  The next three highest WAR position players (Sano/Buxton/Garver are under team control through 2022/23/24 respectively.  Rosario is here until 2022 unless but he is replaced by an equivalent or better player, probably Kirilloff or Larnach. Rosario is on pace for about 1.6 WAR this year which will make his average over 4 years a little above 2. Kirilloff and Larnach to be more impactful.  Between Graterol / Balazovic / Colina and others who are emerging there is a very good chance the Twins will get even better for a sustained period. That’s well positioned. Not to be confused with set. They need to make a key FA signing of a starting pitcher and a couple players among this tremendous depth need to pan out but they are well-positioned to be good for several years.

That kind of thinking is exceptionally short-sighted. If Alcala or Celestino are well-above average for multiple years, it's a good trade. If both are productive at the MLB level it's a great trade for the Twins even if Pressly was not hurt. His presence for the last half of last year was meaningless and now he's hurt, hoping to return for the playoffs. Sure, he would have had value to this point (this season) but to suggest his value is more important than if Alcala becomes a CY level pitcher is to think only in terms of the present. I will still be a fan for years to come. Just to put this in context. Many wanted to trade several years of Garver and top prospects for 2 years of Realmuto. That would have hurt now and the future if Garver stays healthy. The kind of prospects needed could hurt badly for years. While we are on catchers, before Realmuto many wanted us to pay a premium in young talent to get LuCroy who was not all that good for his remaining two years. Kepler was among the players mentioned. Before that many thought we should give up good prospects for Tulo and Polanco was mentioned. Too be fair, many did object to the cost of Tulo. Same story with Chris Archer and there are other examples as well. This team would be in sad shape if the Twins FO was a short-sighted as some fans tend to be. Just a little more context ... This team is on pace to win almost 100 games and is well-positioned to sustain success. To complain about the performance of the front office seems misguided, especially when speaking of the BP. TDers should take a look at the high dollar FA reliever who were broadly endorsed here this year. Virtually all of them failed miserably and we would be saddled with their contracts.

Let's face it, when it comes to anything financial, you and I will rarely agree. You either don't understand or are intentionally misrepresented my message. We are well positioned because we did not invest $22-24M in RPs that ended up producing zero WAR. t. That's exactly what I said but you have twisted it. The $10M is a related comment. That 22-24M can now be invested instead in a front of the rotation SP which I suggested is the team's most critical need. Let's also keep in mind you suggested the FO was either incompetent or just cheap when they failed to sign the big dollar RPs that have failed miserably.

Without looking it up … I think we are within $10M of are all-time high payroll. It just amazes me that people think spending an extra $10M is a difference maker. There are teams that generate literally hundreds of millions more in revenue. If you think another 10 or even $20M in payroll is the key to success, you are looking at the wrong practices. Most people here were exasperated that the FO could not see what a no brainer it was to go get a couple big name relievers. There were 10 that got over $7M AAV. People are still complaining even though one of the 10 relievers has been better than Ryne Harper and the other nine have produced ZERO WAR collectively. Even Magill had more WAR than most of the highest paid FA RPs. This is not a revelation. Relievers have been notoriously unpredictable / unreliable. I tried to suggest investing $20M+ in a couple of relievers was not the best use of funds and that such an investment could bite us in the A$$ when it came time to make additions after the 2019 season. Fans would have been elated had we spent 22-24M to get two of Miller / Robertson / Familia and they all have negative WAR. More importantly, that salary would not have been available to be directed at starting Pitching next year. IDK if we can attract Cole or Bumgarner but I am damn glad they did max the payroll for the 2019 and the next couple years by adding the BP arms most TD posters insisted was a no brainer. We are positioned well because the FO did not make any bad deals. Hey ... attracting top FA starting pitchers is tough even when the budget is there so its no guarantee we will get a top FA SP but we should recognize spending wisely as well as developing internal talent is absolutely crucial to being in a position to utilize free agency to get a front of the rotation SP which in my opinion is far and away the biggest need going forward.

I was thinking the same thing, Mike. A team that would want Rosario is not a team that would be likely to be giving up good starting pitching. Not impossible but very uncommon. Between Gibson / Odorizzi / Pineda / Reed / Hughes / Sanatana / Morrison / Schoop and Castro, we have $57M coming off the books. Sign two of Gibson / Odorizzi / Pineda. What's market value? Roughly $25-28M for two of them. That leaves around $30M to spend on other pitching and there are some good FA starting pitchers next year. Kuechel will be back on the market along with Bumgarner. Cole will be the big prize. Zack Wheeler is having a mediocre year but he is a good candidate as well. Bottom line is they don't have to trade anyone. The core position players will remain reasonably priced for the next 3 years. I would probably try to extend Gibson now. It's a good message. He has been a good team guy and consistent (albeit average) performer who is at times quite good. He is also in great shape and a good candidate to age well. Then, sign one of Odorizzi / Pineda. Players like to stay with their teams. Plus this going to be a good team for awhile. We should be able to keep one of them. Now go get the best SP on the open market. I would say go get Cole but the word is he wants to play on the west coast. Some things you just can't fight but go get the best SP truly available to us. Smeltzer gets the 5th spot. Use the team option on Perez if you want a long man or if you believe he can be effective as a RP. You still have enough budget for another RP.

Kuechel only signed for this year, right. He is a free agent next season. Bumgarner / and Wheeler are FAs. I was hoping we would see Tehran this series as he is a FA at the end of the year. Gerrit Cole and Alex Wood would both be great acquisitions. I don’t think Houston can afford any more big contracts but I have read Cole want to play on the west coast. Not sure how hard it would be to pry Cole from Cincinnati. That’s quite a few good options. This is the year they need to pony up and land a top FA Starter. That addition to Berrios and at least one of our current starters plus whatever prospect steps up should make a better staff than this year. We could also sign Archer hoping for him to bounce back. I hope you get your wish this year and we land a top FA starter. The FAs should be more receptive than past years given the state of the team and we will be in the financial position to get it done.

Rosario was great the 1st half of 2018. Since then he has produced .9 Fwar. Zero for the 2nd half of last year and .9 to date this year. He is 10th among our position players in fWAR this season. I would sure hope one of our OF prospects could produce better than what we have seen in Rosario since the 1st half of last year. I also would not expect much in a trade.

Next year we have a 26 man roster. One of our OF prospects is going to become the 4th outfielder. I would love to see Eddie mature and keep his spot but I would bet one of those prospects ends up earning the starting spot. This was not hard to see coming. Eddie was a favorite of my wife and I but I told her in his 2nd year he would need to improve his approach or ML pitchers would get the better of him. What is really frustrating is that he seems plenty capable in terms of pitch recognition. He is simply that undisciplined. We hear often that coached don't want o take away a players aggressiveness but allowing a player to continue to take poor ABs does not make sense. Did anyone notice during the series with the Yankee ... their players make the pitcher throw the ball over the plate.

That may have had something to do with it. He also was among the top 5 for swinging outside the strike zone last year. He has no plan and no discipline. He would be a perennial all-star if he had an approach comparable to Arreaz or probably even with average plate discipline but his approach is horrible. What about his numbers this year? He is 9th on the team in fWAR as well as wPA+. Arreaz has already passed him in fWAR with exactly half as many games played. He has had a couple streaks during his career when he has been awesome so some fans ignore the big picture. He is not a player I would extend. As a matter of fact, I hope we have a couple OFers making so much noise that the FO feels they can deal Rosario this off season or at the deadline next year.