Dman

Is his arm not good enough for center? His lack of power and good OBP would play well there. He had the speed to steal 50 bases last year so have to assume he has the wheels to play center. I have him starting in AAA next year given Keirsey seems like the only legit outfielder there right now. I guess if you include Martin then there are two guys. I don't see Garlic coming back, but maybe he will. At any rate as things stand there is room for him right now. He has good walk and K ratio's but slugging is holding him back some. I'd like to see what he can do at AAA. I didn't watch him a ton last year, but I liked the plate appearances I saw and he is a beast on the bases. Unless something changes 4th outfielder looks like his ceiling right now, but the Twins have found ways to get guys the power they need. If he finds it I think they might have something in Fajardo.

That is about how I would have those guys ranked as well. I know he is not in the top 30, but Ohl has been good and his stuff might carry over faster than the last 4 guys you mentioned. AAA can be a stall point for a lot of arms so hard to say how any of those not yet at AAA will do. I am hoping Festa is ready to take the leap this year. I think he is going to be desperately needed at some point this coming year and I agree with the OP that out of that group he looks like closest one to being ready for that kind of challenge. SWR is a real wild card, but he is on the 40 man so he still could be the first arm up unless he struggles at the start of the year. Raya can really bend the baseball around the plate. He needs to refine some of his pitches and needs to prove he can go longer to be a starter. I think he has the plus pitches to be a top of the rotation arm if he can manage the workload. I really like all four guys from the 2022 draft. Lewis could be special but as noted in the article AA and AAA will let us know if he can make it or not. Morris and Culpepper are slightly younger arms with a lot of potential as well. I think Festa and SWR are the most likely to pitch at the MLB level this year. How good they will be is anyone's best guess, but I sure hope they can end up mid rotation arms.

Really liked part one. Kody is so engaging and gave great responses about getting called up and what that was like. Some really great stuff in there.

Its a 100 to 200 point drop for OPS generally from AAA and that still puts Prato in the 700 OPS range. He also has a very even K and walk rate which is generally an indicator of greater success at the MLB level. The potential seems to be there if you believe the AAA numbers (Granted high unsustainable BABIP). A fair number of good bats that seemed like they might get taken no one took and maybe the worst hitter of all of them Nunez got taken. I assume mainly because of eye at the plate and good defense, but with a .224 BA and .672 OPS those numbers likely don't translate well to MLB at all. Hard to predict the chances teams will take. Will be watching Prato to see if he is for real or just had a good 4 month run.

I liked the Marcano pick as the system is short on Lefties anyway. Escalante reminds me of Olivar. Del Rosario seems like a pick to compete at A ball with several other wild card players there. Reed is much needed pitching depth at high A\AA. I liked what the Twins did and while there was some risk they might lose someone since they didn't they optimized the 40 man as well. So good job FO! Hopefully a couple of these picks turn out to be an asset at some point

I really thought a team might be able to take a chance on Prato, but glad I was wrong.. It is hard to hide position players on the 26 man. I was surprised Washington grabbed Nunez, but he has speed and a good eye at the plate but no power and not much of a hit tool. Prato probably just too old and he had an uneven season last year. Glad the FO didn't waste any 40 man spots. They will need them for waiver wire pickups and adding players. If the Twins are going to promote Lewis, Culpepper, Matthews and maybe Morris or Jones I guess I can see why they grabbed some High A pitchers in the AAA portion of the draft as there is no one left to promote from A ball and if they promote all of Lewis, Culpepper, Matthews they needed at least two more arms which they got in Marcano and Reed. Escalante looks a bit like Olivar in the Twins system as he has a good OBP and low strike out numbers (balanced line). Not much in the way of power though, but maybe the Twins think they can unlock something there? Del Rosario is pretty young and at the lower levels but the A ball options are a bit slim so guessing they just added another wild card because they could? Overall just happy the Twins didn't lose any players in either phase and were able to build a little depth in spots they could use it.

I think Seattle is looking to grab Snell or Yamamoto and then can use one of their young controllable pitchers to fill holes in the lineup. I think they want to work with Tampa more than Twins. If they can get Arozarena and or Paredes those are better targets than than Polanco and Kepler IMO. They will cost more so maybe it won't make sense for them but those would be two good players for them to get if the price is right. Polanco and Kepler would be more stop gaps than long term solutions and cost more money.

You are correct UZR and DRS are in the negative. Was going off some highlights and games I saw him play.

He doesn't have to play much shortstop but he can if needed. If your shortstop is injured for significant period that can be a big deal. Can't assume anything but not many and I can't think of any Twins prospect that made it to AAA in their first pro full season. His Dad is a hitting coach odds are he is going to figure it out and IMO more likely on the elite side than average or below.

If 5th starter is their high hope then I am even more pissed they didn't just get Kenta back on that reasonable two year deal. They better find someone better than Maeda or they look like idiots IMO.

How many MLB switch hitters that can play all three spots and likely be elite hitters? That would be my definition of unicorn.

Yeah but you are forgetting something. Lee made it all the way to AAA in first full pro season it took Julien three years to get there. Lee doesn't quite have Julien's patience but his bat to ball skills are excellent and Lee hits from both sides of the plate. It is really hard to find good switch hitters which makes him even more valuable IMO. I still see All Star upside and a versatile player who can play all three spots if needed. That is not the right player to trade IMO he is a unicorn.

To be honest I was shocked they kept the payroll at 156M last year. I thought they would dump Kepler after the Gallo signing for sure and others noted they probably didn't think they would get Correa in the end but they went with the larger than normal budget anyway. They didn't have to say anything and I agree with Nick that that in itself is curious. The FO generally isn't that forth coming with much of anything. Maybe they wanted to get a head of the TV revenue conjecture and\or maybe they wanted time to lower expectations to exceed them. Hard to say but I think they land in the 130M range in the end but we will see. Some of their decisions seem to have more to do with what happens in future years than just this year. Starting in 2025 they are going to have to pay Lopez 20M per year so three players are going to take up 72.5M of salary. There are going to be more players that become Arb eligible in 2025 and beyond and no way out of Buxton and Correa for the next 5 years. They have to plan very carefully from here on out. I think that is why we were hearing that if they did anything in FA they were looking for one year deals and why even though Maeda's price tag wasn't all that high that they didn't go two years. While I assume Kepler, Polanco, Farmer and Vasquez all come off at some point this year or next saving 36M they are going to be relying on younger players with very little space to add in free agency IMO. I think there are many things at play and they just decided to level set expectations early mainly because of the TV deal expiring. Cleveland appears to be doing the same thing. We'll see how Texas ends up operating but 100M is a lot of revenue to lose.

He pitched well last year. His first year with the Twins blowing so many saves and giving up HR's really made it hard to shake the narrative. I for one was not much of a believer in him starting the 2023 season. The Twins pushed him back to lower leverage and after a tough angsty start he really turned things around. I will say I was surprised he was able to get that much money given his history of giving up the long ball but maybe the Twins helped him get to a place where that is less likely now? I don't know what the offers were but I still wish the Twins would have traded him instead of using him last year. After all he went through in Minnesota I am happy he landed a great deal.

That is what happened to the Twins when they lost Stuart Turner in the Rule V draft. He was a no bat very good defensive catcher and I believe it was the Reds who grabbed him in Rule V from the Twins. Turner never turned the bat around and really only played at the MLB in that 2017 season. Bats can be hard to turn around so it would still be a long shot but like Turner a team short on catcher depth might take a shot just based on the fact he isn't a defensive liability. I don't see it as a move the Twins would make though.

Johnston is interesting but his numbers (except HR's) aren't that far off of Prato's who the Twins decided not to add to the 40 man. Prato bats right handed which would work better but is too short to play first base. Being 26 already and carrying a guy on the 40 man that seems redundant to Kirilloff or Jullien from the left side doesn't make much sense to me. The batting line looks real solid to me but the fact he he also has limited positional flexibility and is older works against him holding a 40 man spot. If I am the Twins and looking to upgrade 1st base I use that roster spot on a veteran player not a Rule V guy. The Twins essentially have Crim in the system already and his name is Chris Williams who they don't have to carry on the 40 man. Again I just don't see it. While AHT is interesting I think given how far away he is that a waiver claim would be a better way to go. Just too risky a move for the Twins especially when carrying too many questionable arms as is and battling for a playoff spot. IMO. Given the Twins are a playoff team a guy like Van Eyk holding a 40 man spot isn't appealing. The Twins are looking for high end upgrades in the pen and I don't think he fits that description. If that is the best the Rule V has to offer I think it is likely better to just play the waiver wire. Those players generally have MLB experience and are a tweak away from making a difference at the MLB level right away and sometimes they can still be stashed at AAA if they eventually clear waivers.

Yeah but they will sign someone for depth as right now Louie is the only somewhat proven depth piece they have. It is gonna take more than 5 starters to get through the whole season. The Twins will get another starter the only question is what level of quality at this point.

Varland looks like the odd man out of the rotation to start the season. He is critical depth though. I think they keep him stretched out at AAA just like they did with Ober last year. Someone is likely going to get hurt and Louie would be the next arm up. If all the starters do stay healthy and the Twins need help in the pen again I could see them moving him there fairly early in the season as well. I still think he is a starter though. If he shores up the HR issue he can be a really good one. Personally I don't think his future is in the pen but, it is nice to know he can be a weapon if needed down the stretch or in the playoffs.

This isn't the year to shop Vasquez. They need the level of defense he provides for the pitching staff. It also allows us to see if Jeffers continues to play at the level he established last year and to make sure Camargo is ready for the next step. 2025 gets more interesting depending on if the Twins need to protect Cardenas, Winkel or Olivar in the Rule V draft. If one or more of those players need to be added and Vasquez is still struggling at the plate it might make more sense to move him. I still think Vasquez is an important part of this years team. Camargo needs to be slowly brought along not depended on at that MLB level of a potential playoff team. Depending on the return I think it would be a mistake to trade Vasquez at this time.

I would only give him elite status in Left mainly because his arm is such a weapon to throw guys out at the plate and or teams won't send guys knowing he is there. He lacks Kepler like speed in right and while the arm still plays well there I don't feel like it has the same effect as in left. At any rate he is solid to above average in my book simply lacking the speed to get to some balls.

I ma pretty sure he will rebound but his defense is horrible at least at short and I don't know how well he fits into a club house. Like the article said he just isn't a good fit for the Twins, but I think the team that takes a chance will get rewarded.

I have been thinking about this a lot and I guess I am someone who probably loves prospects and future potential too much but, I don't really want the Twins to trade many prospects in the top ten let alone guys that already look good at the MLB level. Jenkins could be the star player that drives this team like Lewis does I don't want to move him. As mentioned above Lee is the perfect Polanco replacement and he can play 2nd. short and 3rd along with being a switch hitter. Lee completes the infield and adds a ton of versatility I think trading him would be a mistake. Rodriguez is polarizing right now. He could be something great or just meh. Still he could be our center fielder by 2025 and\or an excellent Kepler replacement in right. He has power and a good eye at the plate just like Kepler but possibly some contact issues. There is no one close enough that can do what he does though and his upside is mini Soto. The Twins likely need him as soon as next year. The only guys in the top 10 or 11 on MLB.COM I would be OK trading would be Schobel, De Andrade or Keischal as they are just further infield depth and the Twins already have that and pretty far into the future. I also can't see them trading Jullien as he has great plate discipline and power and is a really good lead off option. I realize that with Lee coming he likely gets moved off of second but his bat plays at first base or DH and he can play second at times as well. I can see that in some ways he might be expendable but he is still important to this years team. Wallner looks elite defensively in left and can handle right field. His arm is a difference maker. His power is a difference maker. Not sure if the K's catch up to him but he looks like a middle of the order bat and he is a native Minnesotan. Just can't see moving him. I get it if they can get a top of the rotation arm it might be worth moving one of the players mentioned but IMO they all have key roles to play on the current team as well. Definitely some tough decisions if they are trading for a top of the rotation arm with years of control and arms are riskier bets long term than bats. Where is @Mike Sixel to tell me I need to step out of my comfort zone and just take the risk and go for it?

Expecting at least one of Winder, Sands, Henriquez, Balazovich and Headrick to step up and help the bullpen last year almost ended in disaster. 40 man space is valuable and all 5 of those guys were a drag on the roster. At least one of them was supposed to grow into the role and none of them did. Henriquez is already off the 40 man and Winder seems to be in no man's land as well. Balazovich might have a chance but with his control problems it seems unlikely. That only leaves Sands and Headrick as legit options to me and both gave up hard contact too often. Festa, Ohl and Raya are right behind them and will need to be added next fall. Those fringe guys need to figure it out fast or get passed by.

If the Twins didn't want Maeda for that kind of money it seems hard to believe they would trade for a guy with fairly similar results at about the same AAV and throw in trade pieces as well. Still he is a lefty with solid results so who knows. Probably would cost Festa or Raya as I would think the reason the Cards are willing to trade him is for some salary relief after the Gray signing and to rebuild the prospect pool. I think I would rather keep Raya and Festa as they could be mid to top of the rotation arms with lot's of years of control if things work out. It doesn't feel like a likely match to me.

Yeah I agree. Hard to find a Brooks Lee type player in the the comp rounds. It can be done just not likely to happen. Also takes longer for draft picks to develop than guys closer to ready. So that pick has only so much value. I was thinking the Twins might get the Brewers to bite on the Comp pick for Burnes plus maybe Polanco or some other player that fits their roster. That way the Brewers have the certainty of getting the comp pick for Burnes and something else they need. The Twins get Burnes with the potential to get a comp pick for him after 2024. Still a fair bit of risk for the Twins if Burnes is injured or has a bad year he might not be worthy of a QO, but in theory both teams could get something they want or need. Probably depends on if the Brewers are in a partial rebuild mode or still trying to win it all for that to work though.