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Dman

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Everything posted by Dman

  1. Dman
    When this team pitches well they win games. four runs from this offense is about the best you can hope for most nights so they need to pitch well to win. I think the baseball gods dislike me. When I root for this team to win they lose badly. When I essentially root for them to lose or don't care if they lose they get series wins against two of the better teams in baseball. Being three back with one of the easier schedule's to the deadline playing the bottom three NL teams in three different series. There is a good chance this team is in one of the wild card spots come the end of July. Unless the baseball gods reverse course, because I see a path to the playoffs.
  2. Dman
    Great post Doc. Totally agree on Bremnar. I think his arm action could be something like Bieber had in Cleveland. I think it is a top of the rotation arm, he won't get past picks 11 to 15 if he lasts that long. All the really good arms look like they will be gone around the top 10. I like Woods stuff. I think it can be elite in time. He could droop to 16 or late 20's. Kind of Joe Ryan like, but with a shoulder impingement already and only two plus pitches that seems like too much risk for me at 16. If he were still there at 36 or 54 I would do it, but I imagine he won't last that long. I have them taking a college player again at 16. Summerhill could be plus everywhere with a question mark with power. Likely just a left fielder despite good speed, but he would be plus defensively there. Aloy comes with concerns with chase and thus the bat to some degree, but it would be nice to have an infielder with a nice power stoke. It's something they don't have in the system and he plays good D at short as well. Both could be gone before the Twins pick, but most mocks have them making it to 16.
  3. Dman
    Can't wait for the live stream. It was a lot of fun last year. I'm with @DocBauer I just love to dream on these kids. I also agree that if the right college pitcher falls it would be nice to have a fast moving arm with mid rotation potential. Looking at the way most boards are shaping up I have them taking Aloy or Summerhill at 16. So many things can happen to change consensus though we won't know until we know. Appreciate all the work and effort you put into this Jamie!!! It is greatly appreciated.
  4. Dman
    We won't know what really makes sense until the deadline. Falvey has to say he isn't focused on selling and that he believes in team. For one he created the team so it looks bad if you don't support what you put together. For another being only four games back of a wild card spot if the team does go on a run they could stand pat and go for it. They are not dead yet, but given the way this team has performed the last three months they don't look like a contender. even if they do make the wild card. It wouldn't make sense for him to say this early that the team has really disappointed and we are looking at selling. When the time is right which will likely be a week before the deadline he'll fess up to what they are going to do for real.
  5. Dman
    Brewers would do that deal in a heartbeat. That would net them a closer type arm on a cheap salary for the next few years. Stewart isn't even arb eligible until 2026. Granted he is 34 in October. Still if the Brewers want a high octane arm with years of control on the cheap side this would be an incredible deal for them IMO. They would also have the ability to trade him for something better than they gave up at the end of the season. I would think they would be very interested in that deal. I think that's a fair bit of risk for Minnesota. He hasn't hit above high A. Its a max effort swing that might not handle the breaking stuff they throw at AA and AAA let alone the majors. It is also all small sample sizes. Only 26 games at A ball last year with regression already in 32 games at High A. I wouldn't want to base my decision on so few games especially at the lower levels. It's an interesting profile but more as a lottery ticket than headliner IMO. I'd think the Twins would want more for 3 plus years of control of an elite pen arm
  6. Dman
    If the Twins do go on a run here you are right they could get right back in it as a lot of teams are hovering around .500 ball. They are only 4 games in back of the last Wild Card spot. If they are more than 5 games back by the deadline that is a tall order to overcome. They would likely have to win at a .600 or better clip to sneak in and they haven't been that kind of team so far this year. They will get reinforcements with Pablo and Keaschal and Matthews on the way back. Still no guarantee those players are back to form right away either and no guarantee they won't have more injuries along the way. It is going to be an interesting next three weeks.
  7. Dman
    Awesome! I loved reading this.
  8. Dman
    I can see not moving a Jax or Duran type player before new ownership comes into play. They still have years of control and it seems a year too early to be trading them anyway. I guess I fail to see the logic of not trading guys on one year deals at the deadline? Unless they plan to extend them they won't be back. The team saves some money this year and they hopefully get something of value for players they were not going to retain. If they are out of it what's the difference? 1 win? 2 wins? It also might set the team up better for next year to give some younger players MLB time. If that is the way they operate I would definitely want a new FO. All the other teams in our division make deadline deals to get better all the time. Detroit sold everything they could last year. KC did when they were out of it and Guardian's trade whether they are in the race or not. White Sox are lining up to trade already. Seems like that would be malpractice as a team to not trade players if you are out of it. IMO.
  9. Dman
    I have been looking at last years deadline and rental players don't return much unless they are unique in some way. Position players generally return quite a bit less than starting pitching. If Castro keeps his OPS up I'd argue he could get something decent. If and it's a big if Bader gets his OPS up around .800 he could be in demand as well They need to be a ways above replacement level to get anything decent at the deadline. There is likely so much starting pitching available I think it will be hard to even trade Paddack let alone net a decent return. Coulombe might bring back something good as one of the better lefties out there. He's been used sparingly this year so not sure what other teams will think about that, but he has been a stopper. If those players keep looking good to the deadline they could get anywhere from top 10 to 15 player in someone's system. If they regress with the bat then top 15 to 30. Maybe two lower end prospects or lottery tickets. Teams only really pay for more elite players and only so many of them get traded. We'll see what happens.
  10. Dman
    Yeah that's right, my bad. He just didn't trust him with such a slim lead.
  11. Dman
    I
  12. Dman
    No one is arguing he can't make it, but he needs to prove it again at AAA. Especially coming back from injury. We haven't even seen much power out of him yet. Two months of great play isn't enough to just send him to the majors. To small a sample. He wasn't in A ball for a year or High A for year or AA for a year like most players to prove the production is for real. Also other things are in play. Those 40 man spots are valuable. Someone needs to go, for him to have a spot and they have a lot of second baseman. Would you not protect Schobel to put Eeles on the 40 man this year? Getting rid of Jullien? There isn't room for everyone. Eeles doesn't "need" to be added right away unless he "proves" he is ready and he proves it by giving a larger sample size of production. That is all most were arguing. He might have to prove he is better than Keaschal, Lee and Culpepper to find a spot. That might take time. He had a great night tonight I can't think of single person on the board that doesn't want him to make it. I just think there is no hurry and that he needs to prove that he can continue that type of production at AAA before adding him to the 40 man and it looks like that is what the Twins are doing. I have watched him a ton as well, All the way when he jump started the Fort Myers team. Everyone can see he looks "special", but it is still a small sample size. One year of production out of someone in Indy ball. He'll get there once they feel he is the best fit for the team. Right now they have Correa, Lee and Lewis as the main infield. Whose place is he taking?
  13. Dman
    That actually doesn't look bad. Is that just this years stats or total? I guess Rocko is the only who knows why he didn't trust him. I swear I have seen Sim get beat up late, but I must be wrong.
  14. Dman
    This is pretty much my exact thinking. Hopefully you can move on from some of those guys and give younger players more chances to see what they can or cannot do at the MLB level. The odds of this team as constructed beating Detroit or Houston in 7 game series would be astronomical IMO. Gonna need some young blood that moves the needle Like Riley Green etc. that the Detroit found. If we can get a couple 45 FV guys that should help down the road and developing some younger players should also help.
  15. Dman
    I think the stats bear out that SWR isn't as good the third time through the order. The Twins are in a spot where they can't afford to lose any winnable games. I can understand them playing the odds for the win. The bullpen was rested, it was a two run game against a very good offensive team and the bullpen has been good recently. I think the odds for the win favored going bullpen early. Still using all those arms right out of the gate could hurt them the rest of the series. We'll find out how this works out the next couple of days. At least they did manage to get the win so the strategy did work.
  16. Dman
    We all want to see those players and if the system was designed in a way to allow for that we would likely see more of that. As things stand you can't just add all these guys get tired of them and then expose them to waivers. You have to have a plan. I think that is all most are saying when it comes to Eeles. Here's an example for you. Anthony Prato had a lights out year at AAA in 2023. Close to the same number of games as Eeles (72 vs 64). .302 batting average .991 OPS. Monster numbers. He never has come close to those numbers since at any level. Adding him to the 40 man after that good stretch would have been a mistake. They had guys like me saying they would lose him to rule V, but it didn't happen and he came right back down to earth the next year. They can give Eeles all the time they need to be sure he needs to be added.
  17. Dman
    But we've seen several players come back to earth after a couple of hot months. So you're convinced absolutely no doubt he is a .300 average 900 OPS no matter what right now? if not then the sample is still too small IMO.
  18. Dman
    Here is a You tube highlight video. for Eeles. It shows him him at all three levels and that he does have power and speed to steal bases. He also made a nice play at short, but isn't considered a plus defender there. He could be Castro like versatile, but has to make sure he can hit and hit for power to move past other players that are higher rated prospects. He doesn't need to be added to the 40 man for three more years so there is no pressure to add him unless he proves worthy of a spot on the MLB team. He'll have to really stand out to do that, but he has a lot of believers after last year myself included.
  19. Dman
    I have been saying it for a while but I still think Bohorquez can hang with Soto and Hill. He has good stuff just needs to find the strike zone more and or at least when he really needs it. After an awful start it is nice to see him dominate like I know he can. Hopefully he takes off from here.
  20. Dman
    For one he hasn't performed as well as he did last year. The Twins have to be mindful of the 40 man. They have Lee at second right now and Jullien is still on the 40 man and Keaschal does play second as well so they already have three guys on the 40 man that can play at that spot. Then you have Culpepper that could be ready as early as next year so even with Castro Likely moving on and Gasper expendable you would want to be careful not to have to expose anyone to waivers. Also I think they would want him hitting for more power before adding him. I think they need more time to make sure he can even handle the AAA level for a longer period of time as all his numbers last year were in a SSS. He also might need more time in Left field as I don't think he has played there a ton. He is a player we all love because he is such a spark plug, but he needs a bit more time before I would be ready to bring him up. Once on the 40 man you want them to be productive enough to stay on. They'll likely wait until they are more certain he is ready for the next level.
  21. Dman
    Totally agree. He might not be the answer, but he was a number 1 pick. He is 26 years old. He has been hitting well at two tough levels. It kind of feels like now or never for him. So it would be nice to know if he can be something or not. He still needs to maintain his AAA numbers to some degree, but if the Twins are sellers then there would be no better time to find out what he can do.
  22. Dman
    I hate to pile on with Correa, but it seems like he got old in a hurry. He looks kind of slow in the field and at the plate. Some of his at bats are just down right embarrassing. I mean once they get two strikes on the guy just throw something a mile outside and he will swing. It's hard to believe he is not some rookie. I guess there isn't much to be done because we don't really have anything else at short, but it's hard to watch a former All Star with a .600 OPS. It's just kind of sad watching him this year. I also agree on France. I mean he has been clutch and maybe that saves him to some degree, but if we can't find someone even in the minors that can't beat his .600 OPS then we are in trouble. I can see hanging onto him until the deadline just to see if something changes, but I like the idea of Sabato if he keeps hitting at AAA. At that point we should be well out of it for the wild card and getting Saabto some playing time would be helpful for next year. Buxton has been amazing. A true All Star. I love Bader's energy and how he seems to care about every at bat and gets to every ball in left. Varland has exceeded my expectations as a pen arm. I mean I felt he would be good, but I did not see excellent coming. I thought he would always carry that I give up home runs too often label, but so far he just keeps getting outs and not giving up any runs. It was fun to see some magic against Tampa, but this team doesn't have a deep lineup and a lot of arms are out. Hard to come back from that.
  23. Dman
    Olivar always pretty rock solid around an .800 OPS year in and year out. Walk rate is always 10% and his K rate this year so far has improved to 15%. He is just always a good solid hitter. Nice to see him have a heck of day, but not surprised. The top 6 bats in that lineup all have .800 OPS's or really close to it and they all had multiple hits. Culpepper with 3. Jenkins has continued to hit as well. It might be the lineup that is most fun to watch in the Twins system as they always seem to score a bunch of runs. I was wondering if Klein was going to run out of gas like last year and he really struggled in this one. I think they have an All Star break coming up so maybe he can rest that arm a little for the second half. Awesome job by the Surge players to come back and win that one. Love those scorching hot bats.
  24. Dman
    I am with @jmlease1 I have seen enough of MaCleod at AA. A lefty with his potential and the Teams need for left handed arms that are possibly MLB quality should make for a quick move. I will say his K rate is a tad low and his xFIP is two runs higher than his current 2.00 ERA. So the underlying numbers are not as dominant as you would like. With those numbers he look a bit like Morris. I have not really seen him pitch all year so no idea what he looks like other than the numbers. Still he is a seasoned lefty and it would be nice to have an arm beyond Funderburk that they could potentially call up. I think the book is out on Hill and he is going to need to adjust. Nice to see fewer walks, but he also did give up seven hits. I imagine they are working on lot's of things so no real need for concern as he has already exceeded expectations for his first year. The seven K's in 3.2 innings shows he has the stuff to get guys out. His 13.25 k rate per 9 and 34% K rate already puts him in elite territory especially considering his age and lack of experience. He has been the most fun player to follow at A ball this year.
  25. Dman
    It depends on how far back you want to go. The last seven games it looks like an 1.100 OPS which brings his last 15 games OPS up to .758. Yeah if you go back the last 30 even with his one week hot streak he has a .620 OPS. He had been slumping for a while, but it looks like he is back. You know I always give the Twins crap about those AAAA type pickups, but his impact on this team has made a world of difference. Not like this team is elite or anything, but his clutch homers are something this generally anemic offense can't manage. It takes the whole team to win but his impact has been outsized for such a marginal player. As an example his offense has been far more impactful than Correa's who is supposed to be an All Star type player.
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