Dman

To be honest I am concerned about Kepler, Sano, Buxton, Simmons and Cave this coming season. I don't believe their numbers will be that bad but I am concerned. 2020 just doesn't give us much to go on but the trends for Kepler, Sano and Cave are not good. Kepler isn't hitting balls in the air as much and is grounding out a ton into the shift. When he does hit the ball in the air it generally is a pop fly out to his pull side as well. He hasn't been good since the ball was juiced so I have my concerns. While Sano is willing to take pitches once he gets two strikes he is prone to K on stuff low and outside, he also has a ton of swing and miss. When he does hit it though he gets a lot of hits. His power is amazing I just wish he could make contact more often. I don't know what to think about Cave anymore. The Twins obviously love him and feel he is a major league left fielder. I feel like he is more of a 4th outfielder and non essential especially once Kirilloff comes up but that is just my box score informed opinion. 2020 was not a good year for Cave and to see him start slow this spring doesn't give me confidence that he is going to turn things around. We will see where he and the team are at around the deadline. We all knew Simmons bat was light but hopefully it isn't pitiful. Buxton is basically a guess hitter. No plate discipline that I can discern what so ever. Pitchers keep throwing him strikes early and late in the count and does put them in the seats at a good enough clip that if he keeps that up makes him a dangerous hitter if not he is just K prone centerfielder. So yeah it might be spring and the numbers might mean nothing but given how those guys played last year it doesn't give me confidence that anything has changed for the better. We will know more once the season starts and guys are truly dialed in, but this lineup could have some serious holes in it.

Jax is an interesting pitcher. Doesn't get many strikeouts but I don't think there was one ball hit in the air. Some fairly hard hit ground balls but mostly weak contact. I am still surprised he didn't get picked in the rule V. I guess strikeouts rule, but I honestly think he could succeed as a number 5 on several teams. His stuff would also play out of the pen as I think he could refine it to get K's. Nothing he threw looked straight and he looked like he was trying to pitch just off the plate but the hitters were not biting. Even when he threw over the plate no one got solid contact in three innings of work. He did manage to give up 4 hits though. Law didn't look quite as efficient this time out and gave up some hard contact but still he had 2 K's, no walks and no hits. So a dominant performance non the less. Farrell had his usual bendy stuff and got his typical 2 K's but did give up a hit today. Farrell's breaking stuff is pretty slow but he did have a fastball at 94 today. He is still my sire of ft meyers choice but Law is right there with him as well. Winder and Canterino can throw hard but both had control issues today. Definitely need some refining. they both had several balls not even reaching the plate. Maybe those are by design but they fooled no one so I can only conclude they are missing their spots. Winder gave up a HR but it barely cleared the fence, again both those guys have the stuff but they need to be more consistent than they were today. Rooker and Garlick didn't look great today. Rooker K'd once and Garlick twice. Rooker did hit one ball pretty well and that was it. Tough day for the hitters again with only three hits. This was pretty much the B squad though so not too surprising. Honestly the Pirates didn't do much better they managed 4 hits off of Jax but a couple of those were cheapies and not much after that. I believe Farrell only gave up a hit because Astudillo lost it in the sun and the one good hit they did have went for a home run. The one good hit we had just missed going out and went off the wall for a triple and got erased on a hard hit ball that doubled up the runner. Thats the way she goes sometimes. Pitching looked great even from the guys that won't beak with the team. So that is encouraging. On to Tampa tomorrow.

My apologies that I misinterpreted your post. Let me know if you would like me to delete it and I will.

I agree. I think we are close and I admit the box score doesn't tell us the whole story but it does pretty much define production. It is why we compare OPS and WAR to determine which player is more successful. I get that spring is a SSS and not as meaningful as other venue's but I still feel decisions for marginal players are made there and the box plays its part. Thanks for the insight and discussion!

Well you said due to the SSS of spring they shouldn't make any decisions based on how guys are playing. I am just saying teams make those types of decisions every year. Why believe Wisler was worthy of spot over X number of spring games or LaMare or Harper? I guess because they showed they could get the job done in a SSS in spring training? I am not Saying Kirilloff is going to be horrible because he had a brutal spring training but I think if he is trending the way he is it is safe to say he is unlikely to work his way out of it at the MLB level SSS or not. So I disagree with your SSS argument in this case. I think it is enough of a trend to worry about starting him regardless of what their plans were at the start of spring.

That isn't really my argument though. I agree with you that they saw something they could fix and were successful in fixing it. My argument though is that what they fixed showed up in the box score. We could all see the success. In my argument I don't care what the Twins see in Kirilloff or how they develop him I am just saying the box score will reflect his success or failure. The box showed Kirllioff played poorly this spring and he was sent down according to the box not surprising. Rooker's success at three different levels looks pretty much the same in the box scores and he has not been sent down yet. Again the box reflects how the player is doing. I realize SSS interferer's with this type of analysis and there are other influences that will normalize things like BABIP etc. but the box is a reflection in time and can't be and isn't completely ignored. It matters and the longer the amount of data the more it matters.. Most things outside of the box eventually get reflected in the box. SSS is the enemy to a degree because improvement is made and things can and will change but again that will ultimately be reflected in the box. The box is the record that determines a players value for the most part.

Sure,I get where you are coming from there. I think both Garlick and Rooker have unsustainable BABIP's if IIRC. You will have to throw out plate discipline though because Rosario never had it and he still made it. While launch angle and exit velocity are not in the box scores there successful implementation shows up there otherwise they wouldn't be important. Again while I can admit there are things outside the box scores that can influence a decision on a player I still think the box cures all ills. Spring isn't long enough (SSS) and the competition is at different levels so it is hard to draw to conclusions from the box as you noted earlier but in competition of similar player for a position I think it can settle it. Maybe I am off base but the Twins set Kirilloff up for success to make the team. He simply had to have a decent spring and I believe they would have given him left. They obviously like what they saw at the alternate site and thought he would come out gangbusters but it never worked out that way and the box along with eye test proves it IMO.

For starters on MLB teams spring doesn't mean much. They need to put in some work and stay healthy that is about it. For guys who don't have MLB experience or non roster invites it means a lot. They can't make the final 26 without a good spring. So it depends on the player. I think you will notice that the guys trying to earn jobs are generally doing better than those aren't worried about it. Think Lamare, Harper, Wisler guys with good springs that found a way on the roster. Do you think if they didn't perform in spring they would have made it?

I see your point and I don't know what we have in Thorpe yet to be honest. Is he the no control walk batters and give up the big hit pitcher or is he back to competent 5th starter and maybe more. It is too early to tell that is why that 4th option year would have been nice. The Twins are so thin on lefties though I don't think they can afford to try and trade him or just lose him. We'll see what happens but I think they keep him for now and see how he performs.

While I agree to a degree the box does a pretty good job. There are also things that we can glean from watching games and the box score does tell a story an incomplete one but one non the less. Watching him on MLB tv he looked tentative at the plate not sure why. His swing was no where near the ball at times and for a contact hitter that seemed odd. He was striking out more than expected. Still even if we saw those traits and his box score had his batting average at 300 and OPS over 900 do you honestly think they would have sent him down based on other factors? Come on, man come clean. The stats matter. They matter a lot especially for someone with no MLB experience. What else do they really have to go on? The stats just prove that all the other things you are talking about are OK.

And yet decisions are made in spring all the time. The Twins kept Wisler, Harper and Lamare due to spring performances. Many, many other players on other teams play their way on as well. They might not be great but they made it out of spring non the less. Throw spring out the window if you like the reality is it matters. Why was everyone so upset about the Cubs and Kris Bryant including his agent? According to you those numbers are meaningless they don't tell you a thing. There should have been no reason for a grievance in your world and yet pretty much the entire baseball world took notice. While I can concede spring isn't everything I cannot concede the numbers and they way players play in spring is meaningless. There are way too many examples to disprove that theory.

The more appropriate question would be would you rather have Rosario over JA Happ 8M, Colome 5M Shoemaker 2M or maybe Nelson Cru 13M as that is where Rosario's 8M was spent. You can mix and match and decide who to keep or lose but that is where it went. Cave only makes $575,000 and his production wasn't that far off Rosario's in 2019. Cave did have a horrible 2020, just horrible but a lot of good players did as well. Hard to gain much from 2020's SSS. I am not a die hard Cave fan and see him gone after this year but if he is platooned with Rooker I think they can get to Rosario's production. If not maybe Kirilloff can once he finally get things together.

Have you seen his spring stats? He has a .129 batting average with 8k's and 1 walk. He has been over matched all spring. He is not ready to make the team let alone replace Rosario.

If you are the Pirates or Orioles or any rebuilding team why not grab a back end starter that could be better than that for free? I would.

I guess given those sets of facts I shouldn't be surprised. The players had no control over COVID nor the shortened season so it would be a bit odd to penalize them for it. It the players are good enough they will make the 26 man if not another team will get a crack at them and they might get to be MLB players. Stinks for the Twins and Thorpe IMO but it makes sense not to penalize the players who might then have to endure another minor league year with no way out.

Well I guess the FO was on the TD board this afternoon and after all the banter realized they could send Alex down, lol. He made the decision easy for the FO. He was no Kris Bryant ripping up spring training pitching and looking like a lock to start the season. Instead he never really looked himself. He never really looked comfortable for what ever reason. Sometimes it just works out that way I guess. You get off to a slow start and things just don't come around until it is too late. He is still a great talent and likely will be called up at some point this season. IMO the FO made the right decision. I know there was pressure to make certain they were not manipulating his service time but he never produced and his competition did. To me they did what was best for the team by starting the players that appear to be ready and the most productive to start the season.

I like what Broxton has done this spring and am surprised at how well he is doing. The K rate is fairly good. He has taken walks. He has hit and hit for power. He plays good defense and has enough speed to steal bases. Now that he has passed those hurdles in Spring training will that carry over to the Elite competition he will face in MLB. He rarely started this spring and I don't believe he faced the level of competition he will if makes the team so how do we know he will produce at levels close to what he did this spring or close to the ones the past two years that almost have him out of baseball? That is the question. I don't know if he has an opt out later in the season like a month or two in, but if he does not have an opt out and I haven't been able to find an article that says he does, then the Twins can keep him as insurance in AAA for the rest of the season. If Buxton goes down for a long period of time they could put Broxton on the 40 man. They might lose him once Buxton returns but he still would have served his purpose. If does do well as Byron's replacement they could try and trade Cave or make some other move to keep him on the 40 man. The sticky issue here is that Broxton is unlikely to be a long term answer. Celestino is the long term answer. He just needs a bit more polish and needs to play everyday right now so not an ideal replacement for Byron this year IMO. The Twins would also lose an option year if they played Celestino which not ideal either. So do you risk losing Garlick or Cave to add Broxton short term or move Kepler over or even use an option on Celestino? I don't know how the FO feels about that. They obviously brought him in for a reason but all indications are Cave is essentially the starting left fielder probably in platoon with Rooker to start the season. My hope is that we can keep Broxton in AAA until a need arises which pretty much every year a need has arisen and we can use Broxton to fill the gap. I think his chances are good if he plays well in AAA and Buxton gets injured like most every other year. If he reverts to the hitter of old in AAA then either Kepler moves over or Celestino comes up. Not sure how this whole thing will play out but Broxton will start in AAA that much is certain.

I get that Kirilloff is a highly regarded prospect but why does that mean he has to start the season with the Twins? I don't understand your fixation there. Rooker isn't chump change he is and has been a highly regarded power hitter. A top 10 guy in the Twins system. A guy who OPS'd 933 in AAA to Kirilloff' 756 OPS in AA. Both players play left field and 1st base but Rookers production to this point including spring training has been better than anything Kirilloff has done to this point. GM's don't just dismiss production for hype or promise. It doesn't matter that Nick Gordon was a 1st round draft choice and a top 5 Prospect in the system and Arraez was virtually no where to be found. Production separated them and the results are one is playing MLB and the other will be in AAA. Do I think Kirilloff will be better than Rooker eventually, I do. He has a great swing and great feel for the game but what's the hurry to get him up when we have someone just as good and likely better this year in Rooker. Have him come up when his bat is hot and he has confidence, this service time stuff just needs to stop at this point. His production speaks for itself and he is not ready for the season. He would need to be absolutely awesome in the few chances he has left this spring to change that.

While I get your point that Spring stats don't matter you are kind of comparing apples and oranges here. Kepler, Cave and Buxton all have years of MLB experience and track record. We all know they will have better stats than that during the regular season, well except maybe Kepler. Also Buxton is a centerfielder and not really in competition with Kirilloff, but I digress. With no "proven" MLB experience to rely on the next closest thing is Spring training where Kirilloff's competition is Rooker and Garlic who also have little to no MLB experience (apples to apples). Who has performed better? Who looks more ready to start the season? If Kirilloff is so much better than those two where are the results? For guys with no MLB track record you have to prove that you belong. Kirilloff has only played about a half season of AA ball and hasn't had a big spring. I think those results tell us he isn't as ready as his competition. Rooker had a very good MLB debut and is having a very good spring. Garlick has been very good at AAA with an up and down track record in MLB but also having arguably the best spring of any hitter on the team. Then you have Kirilloff who has been ho hum to this point. In this game you can't live on reputation you have to prove you belong. IMO Rooker and Garlick look more ready at this point in time than Alex and he should find his swing at AAA before bumping off two guys that look ready to go.

With Rooker and Kirilloff both essentially rookies I say you go with the hot hand. They are going to keep Cave so really only room for one more outfielder unless they move on from the turtle. With the options Garlick, Rooker and Kirilloff have they can mix and match all season long. Alex has been far from dominant this spring and while spring training doesn't mean much for veterans it still is used to evaluate the fringe players and rookies to some degree. To me the thought was that Kirilloff's bat was going to be so good this spring it would look bad for the team to send him down. Currently that is not the case. Right now he almost looks overmatched at the plate I haven't even seen a lot of solid contact except for obviously the HR. Do I think he is better than this, of course. Do I want to wait for him to figure it out when we have better options, NO. Send him down wait for whatever corrections need to be made and when someone on the big team starts to struggle bring him up.

I hate it when Berrios doesn't have great control and starts walking guys. He did bare down and get out of a tough jam with guys on 2nd and 3rd and no outs and no runs came across. Still he makes me nervous at times but yeah good game for him regardless of how I feel. Polanco was crossing off check boxes of my list the last couple of games. Hit for power, Check, take good at bats, check, play great defense, check. I think I can stop worrying about him now. Robles looked better today than I have seen him so far, but his fastball still gets hit hard. Honestly I prefer Derek Laws approach to Robles right now. Robles seems to be coming around and I know I need to be patient but I sense disappointment from him in the end. Hopefully I am wrong. Rogers wasn't nibbling as much today and had really good stuff. Starting to feel more confident that he will take charge in the big moments when we will need him. Stashak was all over the place and while he didn't walk anybody he also gave up 2 runs. He is generally so dependable I never have much to say about him but he had a tough day today. The starters are getting more time so less Sire of Fort Meyers action. The regular season creeps slowly closer. Real baseball is getting close and I am ready. I bought new worry socks, worry pants, and worry shirts to go with my exasperated hat and shoes. Went to Cosco and bought a bunch of antacids so I am ready for the ups and more importantly the downs of the season.

I think what I am hoping the Twins can do is similar to what the Yankee's did to us. We got Cave who they didn't have room for on the 40 man and we gave them a pitcher (Luis Gil) with the potential to throw 100MPH and who wouldn't need to be added for three or four more years. The Twins also kind of did that when they traded Lewin Diaz who needed to be added to the 40 man for Romo and had them throw in Vallimont who was a couple of years from needing to be added. Those are types of trades that I think can bring back the most value for a Smeltzer or Cave. The 4 for 1 or 5 for 1 trades are hard to pull off and as stated earlier in the post generally require not only throwing in prospects but also generally picking up salary as well. The Twins generally are not in a place to do that very often. The hope is they can still get value for guys that don't fit as well as they used to. I think the best way for them to do that is grab guys that they can develop since the farm is pretty top heavy as it is. For guys like Cave and Smeltzer to have any value they need some level of success in the big leagues or a team needs to see their potential to facilitate a trade otherwise as others have said they will just wait it out until those players are waived. The guys we are talking about live on the bottom of the roster not the top so only so much you can do to gain value. Again trading big time prospects carries risk and generally means you have take on more burdensome salary requirements. Doesn't mean it can't and shouldn't be done when it makes sense but it has to be carefully thought out because like any budget having one thing means not having another.. Having said all that there are a lot of pitchers that will likely need rule V protection next year and while there are a few spots that seem easy to drop from the 40 man there aren't many IMO. This coming offseason is going to be very challenging for the FO so I hope the decisions they make are good ones. You can't keep them all so hopefully they keep the best ones.

Good point. With Law out of options he would need to be a sure thing. The Twins like to be able to send guys up and down so he wouldn't fit in with that plan. Maybe if Robles keeps getting hit hard they give Derek his spot otherwise it is hard to see the Twins moving him onto the 40 man unless there is a major injury to another pitcher.

I had no idea Law was so well rounded that certainly gives him a leg up IMO. I only got to see him pitch one game but he was impressive. Guys were swinging over and under his stuff and he had really nice movement on all of his pitches that day. If his control problems are behind him the odds are in his favor. I still like what Ferrell did early this spring and would like see more. I know his fastball isn't where the Twins like to see it but he has some hypnotizing breaking balls IMO. I am also starting to come around on Waddell. I really thought the Twins were somewhat off base and just desperate for a lefty when they claimed him but after what he did in back to back innings yesterday I am impressed with where he is at now. If he keeps that up he has a shot in the rotation or the pen. Broxton is the lone hitter and he has been better than I imagined he could be this spring. He hasn't played against top pitchers etc so those stats need to be taken with a grain of salt but he seems to be handling laying of pitches and making good contact which were issues in the past for him. There is currently no room on the 40 man for him so baring a trade he won't make it. I am not sure if he has an opt out anymore or not but if he keeps playing like this I think the Twins will need him sooner or later so hope they don't lose him. If he continues to not be a near automatic out with the bat he is a very valuable player on any team.

The Twins appear to be all about hard hit rate which somewhat correlates to the harder a player hits the ball the greater the OPS. I am starting to have my doubts about that theory though because when players sell out for power they tend to hit everything pull side and the shift can kill them as they generally only use half the field. Also with the ball being more dead you lose the HR's that power those hard hit rate OPS stats. Honestly I think it would be beneficial for guys to try and go Opo more often. If they don't and can't hit HR's I think it is going to be a long year for our hitters. Hopefully the Twins adjust and bats get better.