Steve Lein

Hicks and Gibson!

Dang, missed the only guy I care about this year! Be good to Max, iTwins!

Suzuki: .240/.290/.345 (even this is pretty optimistic, I think) Pinto: .270/.320/.415, 12 HR's (like his track record enough to believe) Mauer: .345/.425/.490, 16 HR's (fresher legs = somewhat of a resurgence to mid-20's form) Dozier: .275/.340/.450, 15 HR's (2nd half of last year is the real Dozier) Plouffe: .260/.330/.450, 23 HR's (Maker or break year, I see a make) Florimon: .220/.280/.315 (I don't think he'll ever hit even remotely competently) Willingham: .245/.330/.415, 25 HR's (Will be better than last year, but not 2012 better) Hicks: .265/.335/.400, 14 HR's (Will take a big step forward compared to 2012) Kubel: .230/.280/.360, 9 HR's (I think he's done) Arcia: .270/.325/.450, 24 HR's (and will strike out 150+ times) Colabello: .260/.330/.450, 11 HR's (not enough playing time for high HR count) Escobar: .255/.310/.340 (will hit enough compared to Florimon to grab playing time at SS) Bartlett: .235/.290/.300 (phrase in relation to Bartlett all season will by "Why?!") Overall take: This is a bad lineup that won't improve much, if any, over 2013's scoring runs.

I think people read too many positives from AB Walker's season at Low-A last year. Frankly, I don't think he should have even been playing there with his college experience/success (he should have been expected to tear up the Midwest League - and for what it's worth, Keith Law agrees with me). I like him, great athlete, looks the part, and has potential, but he's a one-trick pony at this point (power), and needs to develop other areas to make that one-trick play. Contact issues and non-existent plate discipline won't allow that to happen as he moves up. Can he improve? Absolutely, but there's no way I'd rank him ahead of Kepler, or Harrison for that matter, at this point. Kepler would be in my top 10 (at 9 or 10), Harrison would be top 15, and Walker would be around 20. Defensively, he also has a lot to work on as an outfielder. Even with his good speed for a bigger guy, he'll never be an asset there (by "asset" I mean above average). Have seen a few bad reports about his D out there this Spring. At 1B, I like Kepler even more in comparison than the OF one. He's very athletic for his now Morneau-like size, and growing up in Germany 1B is where he mostly played. It's not new to him. I think he'll excel there this season.

I would hope it's Deduno, but I think he'll be put in the 'pen to start the year. Once he's fully up to speed I would assume he'd be the first guy to takeover whatever SP spot opens up. I think Worley will be given the first chance at the 5 spot, and unless Diamond can fit in the 'pen too, he might be gone. I think they are going to have to lose (or risk losing) Worley or Diamond no matter which route they take. But I'd rather Gibson get the spot over anybody, regardless of "options," "performance in ST," etc...

Because we don't need a Second Baseman. Don't kid yourself, Franklin can't play SS (or shouldn't, depending on the tone you like). I'd rather have Brad Miller from the Mariners. He's not a super-glove either, but he's way better than Franklin and suitable for SS, and has shown he can hit. Reminds me a lot of the "good" Jason Bartlett.

I don't know exactly how they determine "partial" or "full" tear diagnoses from the MRI, but when I tore my ACL I basically remember them coming to this conclusion because there we're markings (technically I believe this would be "inflammation") on bone or muscle tissue where the ligament connected everything together that weren't normal, and would only be there as a result of a catastrophic and sudden disruption of all the connections (like a "whip-crack" or "ripping-off" of the ligament against that tissue, if that makes sense). I don't think mine was completely torn in half (like a knife cut it), but it was completely shredded into frayed strands. The before and after surgery pictures of my knee are pretty cool... But I knew it was torn well-before the MRI, your knee doesn't make that sound and be okay... q;)

Did you happen to stand by the guys on the radar guns for any of these guys at all? I just ask because when I've watched, I could tell a guy like Hermsen wasn't throwing as hard as others, and when I went to watch the guns, that was confirmed (80-84). But then there were the guys who "looked" like their FB had good-life, but the guns wouldn't back that observation up (86-89). AND THEN there were guys whose FB's looked pretty unspectacular, but they would light-up the guns (92-95). It wasn't easy to pin down an actual "hard thrower" from just watching them, because they are all so different in how they "look." I don't have any problem with those observations, I guess I'm just more curious if you collected any data to go along with them?

This is actually something I would like to see the Twins do more of. There are reasons when it comes draft time you always see scouts/etc... talking about how such-and-such guy was "successful college starter, but will end up in bullpen" or something similar. There are a few pitchers the Twins have drafted recently, where the "experts" were saying if they put them in the bullpen, they could help the Twins by next season, but since they're going to start him, you won't see him for a while. I don't really get this approach, but also think that it's more because of their poor drafting leading to an extreme lack of pitching talent from 2011-2013 - they had to try something... I understand the potential benefits of having a guy work as a starter to pile up innings and experience, and to work on pitches, but I also think this can work against them if they have a limited shot at ending up as a starter anyway (and I believe you can figure that out a lot sooner than getting them to AA in 3 years as a starter and then watching them struggle). Why? Because the approach as a starter vs. reliever is not the same thing. We've seen the transition work with Perkins, but think about how long that took to happen? And in his case as well, you see how the approach changed for him. As a starter, he worked with a 4-pitch mix, and none of his pitches were of the "plus" variety. As the closer now, he basically throws a 2-pitch mix with a plus-velocity fastball and developed his slider into a wipeout version that is miles better than what he threw as a starter. My basic question on this information evolves into: Would you rather have had the value Perkins is giving as a reliever/closer now 4 or 5 seasons earlier, or what he gave you as a starter during those seasons? Just so I can put a value to it, per Baseball-Reference, in 2008 and 2009 as a starter, Perk piled up 1.2 WAR in 247.1 innings. In the past 3 years as a reliever (2 as the closer), he's put up 5.5 WAR in 194.2 innings. One guy I would love to see them move back to relief sooner rather than later, is Mason Melotakis (he was the starter in the FSN televised Cedar Rapids game last year that Buxton wowed everybody). He was primarily a reliever in college, and a very good one. Going into the draft he was touted as one of the best lefty-relievers available, who worked with a power fastball in the mid-90's and had a slider with K potential. Well, as a starter, I've seen him top out in the low-90's, and he isn't striking a lot of guys out. They basically have taken the type of pitcher he was out of him in their attempt to see if he could work as a starter, and I don't like this idea even though he was arguably Cedar Rapids' best starter last season.

I've always thought May was going to be a reliever. He's likely going to get there via the Glen Perkins path (which is not a bad thing), but when he does (and on the route there), I think you'll see similar results (e.g.: I think he'll be a good reliever after having middling success as starter).

Nobody was allowed into the Red Sox Minor League area last year when we spent the day there. No idea if that's changed or is just a rule for certain days, but from what I remember you couldn't even really see what was going on their back fields from anywhere around Jet Blue Park.

I agree. Revere has the "quickness," but at the top end Hicks would overtake him. I never liked the routes Revere took, but he was quick enough to make up for most of them. Hicks has the better instincts in that regard, I would say, but in any case they're both awesome.

$&*% !!!

And as Seth says, Kepler may be disappointing in the fact he's been in the system for so long already. But in that same breath, he's still only 20, which makes him younger than guys like Eddie Rosario, Alex Meyer, Josmil Pinto, and Trevor May, who all made this very websites Twins Top 10 prospects, a list in which I suspect Kepler would be just outside. I'd have him in my own Top 10, and I'm a very big believer in Kepler. Every time I've seen him play he's done nothing but impress. 2 years ago at Spring Training, he was playing with the Beloit roster that included Sano, Rosario, and Vargas. He was without-a-doubt the best in-game hitter on that roster in the 3 games I watched, and to be honest, it wasn't particularly close (nobody was pitching to Sano or Vargas, and Rosario was acting very frustrated). I have a notebook on all those games, and even some video of Kepler hitting a double: http://twitpic.com/8zswq4 Needless to say, I was both disappointed and shocked that Kepler did not play for Beloit that season, so I also think they have held him back some to this point. But his injury last year didn't help either. I expect big things from Max this year, and look for him to play 1B moving forward. He resembles more of Morneau to me these days than an OF-er (size-wise).

I asked Baseball America a while back about this exact scenario, and J.J. Cooper answered and spoke about the process as it relates to Kepler and other prospects of his type. It's an interesting look at what goes into such decisions: http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/ask-ba-2/

I don't think I'd have Hrbek near my top 5, but agree with everyone else. Other names: Santana, Radke, Kaat, Blyleven

I've liked Brad Miller for a while. Would love to see the Twins swing something for him. He's not a Florimon-type defender, but he's not Plouffe-like at SS either. Think of him like Bartlett was in his prior Twins days. But I do think he can hit, much better than Florimon would anyway.

I honestly don't even think it should be a competition. Give the job to Hicks and go. It took Torii Hunter playing with the MLB team a bunch before he ever figured out how to hit (never was much of a hitter anywhere in the minors until AAA when he already had 140+ MLB games under his belt). I think the same will play out here, as has been demonstrated by Hicks' path through the minors. It takes him some time to get accustomed to the pitching, then he's just fine. All the other options are nothing but AAAA or bench 4th outfielders. To me, there is absolutely zero point to giving them the job on a team that is still going to be relatively bad, you're not gaining anything by doing so. Sure, they may put up a better batting line for a while, but there is no potential even close to what Hicks brings for the long term, which is where they should be looking. I love the comment "I'd rather see the team playing for the terrific future than playing for the mediocre now." from above. I agree 100%.

I wanted pitching, and complained about the Twins going that direction, though I wasn't exactly "against" their pick of Buxton. I was expecting him to not to develop as quickly as he has, so in retrospect kudos to the Twins. Plus, since then they shipped off some good players to acquire young pitching, which is arguably in the class of the guys available for them in that draft, they covered themselves in other ways.

Man, that's undervaluing what Revere did as a prospect. Sure there was (is) no power tool to speak of, but elite speed, elite hitting, and elite defense would make him a pretty high prospect on this years list. I'd probably have him ahead of Rosario.

I think this type of concern is obviously premature, BUT, if you look 6 years from now, Mauer's current monster contract isn't on the books anymore, so in all honesty I think this concern is moot. If Sano and Buxton deserve the money, the Twins will pay it! I'm predicting Buxton is the next player to join the 20-20-20-20 club (doubles, triples, HR's, SB's), and to give a perspective, only 4 players in the history of MLB are in that club.

I've liked Brad Miller for a while...

Man I couldn't disagree with you more on this, especially for Jon Rauch, considering he had the sweetest intro ever into the game to close it out: So badass... But ya, a lot of the guys music is pretty boring/dumb...

I said that is just one example. If I had time to do an exhaustive search, I guarantee I would fine numerous more. (another example just because: http://www.twincities.com/ci_23276584/tom-powers-after-all-these-years-david-ortiz) And heck, sure he sat around waiting for a team to sign him. Luckily for him, that team was Boston. They let him be himself, which in turn resulted in him becoming their powerhouse DH. When he started with them he was platooned, until it was clear what he was doing for them was working. I think that says a lot about how their potential "coaching" helped him become that guy (Juice or no juice). It's not always a guy just "figures it out" by himself. Look at all the talk about the changes Brian Dozier made last year, for example. A lot of that credit is given to Brunansky for helping him make those changes. You're certain that is not the case with Ortiz? Find proof of that for me... But I digress. I'm definitely looking forward to Sano's MLB debut more than any other player ever. Such a different type of guy for the Twins, and that's going to make it that much more fun watching him!

This is just one example of an article talking about how the Twins tried to change him. From: http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/41989/how-david-ortiz-became-david-ortiz (it does also go on to say how they wanted him to utilize his power-frame more, but this is why I say it's been demonstrated) "Ortiz spent nearly all of 1999 at Triple-A, hitting .315 with 30 home runs, before going 0-for-20 in September. He hit .282/.364/.446, playing in 130 games but platooned a lot. But there was a reason he hit only 10 home runs. The Sporting News, April 30, 2001: A year ago, the Twins tried to get DH David Ortiz to shorten his stroke and punch balls up the middle and to the opposite field."