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Steve Lein

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Everything posted by Steve Lein

  1. Steve Lein
    Too high: Pinto, Walker, Vargas (but would all make the top 20). Too low: Kepler, Melotakis, Santana, Harrison, Bard. Liked the write-up though!
  2. Steve Lein
    The most important sentence in the entirety of this post to me, is the last one: "I'm unwilling to pay to watch the Twins waste the rest of Joe Mauer's prime years." They've utterly and completely wasted the career of arguably their best player ever because they are unwilling to spend the money required in today's game/market to put a competitive team on the field. Sure, they had a $110+ MIL payroll a few years ago, but that team imploded into a terrible product, at which point they should have began the turnaround they are just putting into motion now. So now they're 2+ years behind in the process than where they should be, and still that much farther away from putting the team Mauer deserves on the field as he ages. Yes, it's great that TR can say so-and-so "is overpaid" or "we can't invest that many years." But the fact remains that this is what the market for those players is dictating, and you have to take a chance like that at some point in order to get a guy that is going to make a difference. The hope is that they will have a great lineup at some point in the next 2 years with guys like Arcia, Sano, Rosario, and Buxton joining the fold, but if they're counting on that to turn everything around, they, and we as fans, are going to end up supremely disappointed.
  3. Steve Lein
    Just an FYI - First Base is the position Kepler played his entire life until he enrolled in a baseball academy, it's not something that's completely new to him.
  4. Steve Lein
    I don't necessarily disagree with you on the 6-7 statement as that's pretty much what I was getting at, but that's not actually how I see #4 and #5 guys translating to W-L columns. A #5 guy is usually only slightly better than replacement level if not replacement level (or worse in Twins case), a term which translates to a .320 winning percentage per Baseball-reference, or less than .300 per Fangraphs. Some of these guys are still MLB caliber pitchers, just not anything above back-end starter types. To me a pretty much every +1.0 above 0.0 in WAR is a good rough estimate as to what type of pitcher you have. (i.e.: 0-1 WAR = #5, 1-2 WAR = #4, 2-3 WAR = #3, 3-4 WAR = #2, 4-5 = #1, 5+ = Ace - over a full season's workload) The Twins leader (per fangraphs) is Pelfrey at +1.6.
  5. Steve Lein
    I could see a Rosario, Buxton, Hicks outfield in the future if Dozier keeps this up. But I wouldn't move positions with Rosario or Dozier until it's apparent one of them is the long-term answer. I don't think we will know that until after next year. Dozier has been awesome this year at 2B defensively, and has been really good with the bat in the 2nd half. I wouldn't mess with that by moving him to SS. That didn't work the first time, what makes you think it would now? When he was coming up through the minors playing SS, nearly every prospect guy/scout in the world said he would make a better 2B than a SS when talking about him. I'd say this year has corroborated that.
  6. Steve Lein
    This. 1000x this. The Twins don't need any more #4 or #5 starters, they already have more than a whole rotations worth of them!!!!!!!!!!!!! It's time to spend some of that money they say they have and fix the freakin' problem, or at least atttempt to fix the problem in a way they really have never tried before, because the way they've always done it is what got them here in the first place.
  7. Steve Lein
    It's all about pitching in my opinion. This is a historically bad starting rotation, and has been for 3 straight years now. What have they done to improve it? Nothing. The players they've signed were no better talent-wise than what they already had, so all they've done is moved laterally. If they want any chance at turning this around in the next few seasons, they need to get a guy who can be a #1 in their rotation and it has to be from Free Agency or a trade (e.g.: from outside the organization). Alex Meyer has a lot of promise, but a great way to kill a rebuild is to put all of the responsibility to turn around the rotation on a prospect's shoulders when he gets here and overwhelm him. I'd much rather he be brought up with the expectation they don't need him to be "the guy" right away, or something similar to what the Cardinals have been able to do with Shelby Miller. I kind of think this expectation in a way was put on Gibson this year, and could have contributed to some of his struggles. I just hope the potential the Twins sell to any free-agent SP's they might try to go after with Buxton/Sano/etc... coming soon, is enough to bring them here. If it's not, they're going to have to lose one of them or a few other Top-10 type prospects to make a turnaround happen by 2015/16. They simply don't have enough ready in-house talent on the pitching side.
  8. Steve Lein
    The worst part about even thinking about all of this, is how the Twins so horribly miscalculated the level of "rebuild" they would need to undergo, and because of this, are about 2 seasons behind in putting it in motion.
  9. Steve Lein
    Just a note on Kepler, if they're sending him to the Arizona Fall League, it's very possible with a good performance there that he skips Fort Myers. I'm pretty sure he's actually eligible for the Rule V draft this year so it's very likely the Twins want to get him further up the ladder quickly. Kind of a bummer for him that he was injured the first half of the year.
  10. Steve Lein
    I would have expected Buxton's slugging be considerably higher than .519 for the month while batting .418, just saying. While the overall line is very impressive, that slugging % is very misleading for his actual "power" output, as he's only got 5 XBH's for the month, and no home runs. Also has only 4 RBI in 24 August games, and that's while he's been batting in the 3-spot quite a bit.
  11. Steve Lein
    You realize Revere was hitting .347 from the start of May until he got hurt, after his dreadful April, right? (Including .388 in July). Just had to point out he didn't "collapse." He actually would have been extremely valuable to the Twins this year, considering how badly Hicks and Worley flamed out. I'd call that a terrible miss on a trade by Ryan so far, not a win.
  12. Steve Lein
    Walker is young for a college guy, but he also played 3 full college seasons. That means he should be far more advanced than the guys he faced last year in the Rookie leagues and this year in the Midwest League. I've posted this several times about Walker, from a Keith Law chat a month or more ago: Jesse (Minny) Any opions on Adam Bret Walker in Cedar Rapids? He's over 20 HRs with a good AVG. Solid regular 1st baseman? Klaw (1:59 PM) He's also 21 and a college product in low-A, with a poor walk rate and a K rate too high for a player of his age/experience. He's not a zero, but again, the stat line here is pretty misleading - and he should be in high-A. Klaw (1:59 PM) Seriously, don't draft a good college player in the first few rounds and send him to low-A in his first full year. You're wasting everyone's time. I'm not trying to disrespect the guy, I like him a lot and spent a good amount of time paying attention to him at Spring Training and throughout this year. Very athletic, very powerful, but he also has a ton to work on. There's a great article on Baseball America about him right now and I highly recommend many of you read it if you have the subscription: Adam Brett Walker's Potential Divides Scouts - BaseballAmerica.com But definitely Buxton, Sano, Meyer, Stewart, Rosario, and Berrios, with May and Kepler on the bubble for next years Top 100 lists.
  13. Steve Lein
    Brian Fuentes.
  14. Steve Lein
    In my opinion, you're blowing the adjustment it would take way out of proportion. He'd instantly be better batting RH vs. righties than he is batting LH vs. righties now, I think.
  15. Steve Lein
    I would have mocked them 2 years ago, but he's grown into his body considerably since then and 1B is actually his "natural" position, in that it's the position he played before he was signed. From Sickels back in June, referencing Kepler: "There is a chance he will wind up at first base if he loses too much speed, but that's down the line. He remains a good overall athlete and would likely develop into a sharp defender at first base if he does move there."
  16. Steve Lein
    Also of note: Max Kepler is on the roster as a 1B-man and he has played nearly as many games there as he has in the OF for Cedar Rapids. Wonder how soon they'll make this position change fully.
  17. Steve Lein
    His Dominican Winter League team won't let him. He would have to get a special waiver to play fall/winter ball stateside and is too big of a draw for his team there for them to do it (and they picked him Round 1, Pick 1 last year).
  18. Steve Lein
    Nice to see some firsthand observations! I will note however, that Goodrum is never going to grow into his body. He is what he is. I know quite a bit about his body type since it's the same as mine. I'm 6'3", 160 Lbs, very similar to him, skinny and lanky, long levers. I can't put any extra pounds on my body to save my life, even though I've tried very hard to do so and my height says I should be able to accommodate much more. He's the same way. I've been to every Spring Training since he's been drafted and he hasn't added anything significant in that time so there's little reason to believe he will. In comparison, Kepler has changed a lot in that same time-frame (both began their careers in 2010). Much more muscle and bulk on him than when he first started. I think he's going to move to 1B when it's all said and done, and in actuality, has only played 1 less game at 1B than in the OF for Cedar Rapids this year. To clutterheart: Melotakis has a very "stiff" delivery, I describe it as robotic. Doesn't look smooth at all, but he can crank up some heat in small doses. As a sidenote, I don't mind trying to move some of these RP-guys to the rotation, whether if its to see if they can stick or to work more on their pitches that need it, but at the same time I think they could do a much better job of identifying the guys who actually have a chance to stick and need that work, and only do it with them. Tyler Duffey was a good choice for that, but I would say Melotakis never had a chance and in some systems might already be in the majors as a reliever.
  19. Steve Lein
    I read this comment on BucsDugout and laughed: "Jones for Morneau I completely understand all of the talk about Jones and Morneau being essentially the same player. However, since Jones is stuck in a pretty hefty slump and Morneau is finding his stride, would there be any value to a straight up trade between them? Morneau for Jones? We’d take on Morneau’s hefty salary and all, and the Twins get Jones. They’re not going anywhere this year, so why not take on Jones, who might do well with an off season. This might already have been talked about, but I was just wondering the sense in that. Thanks." I don't think he knows Jones came from the Twins. I do think hoping for a guy like Glasnow in return for Morneau is a pipedream, though that is the type of return I think Terry Ryan wants to see to actually move him.
  20. Steve Lein
    I don't disagree with this stance either, but to throw a bone, there are exceptions on each side. Alex Wimmers' elbow didn't blow up because of overuse when turning pro, for instance, and he also was regarded as having great mechanics when drafted. And there are guys with bad mechanics who have never had major arm problems. Like Chris Sale, for example.
  21. Steve Lein
    I'd almost say it's a "for-sure" situation that Buxton does NOT play in the AFL because it is his first full season. As for Sano, he'll be back in the Dominican Winter League. His team didn't pick him Round 1, Pick 1 last year so he wouldn't play for them. (also just an FYI since I've seen people wondering about him in the AFL: Sano can't play in the AFL unless his DWL team lets him go, which they absolutely will not, as he's such a big attraction for them). I've said this elsewhere, but I think Buxton will join the "20/20/20/20 club" (look it up) eventually, which would put him him in extremely rare and elite company. And think he's more likely to do that consistently than end up a consistent 30/30 guy like many here envision.
  22. Steve Lein
    I looked at something similar a while back, only taking into account the history of Twins prospects in the FSL. Chris Parmelee hit 16 HR's for the Miracle in 2009 in 123 games. That was the most in the past 5 seasons by any Twins prospect. Sano hit 16 HR's in 56 games for the Miracle this year. Going back to 2005 the highest HR total of anyone in a full season with the Miracle came from Brock Peterson, with 21 in 2006. So yeah, he's ridonkulous as far as Twins, and in general, prospects go.
  23. Steve Lein
    I wouldn't call Dozier's adjustments "Major Tinkering." As Parker discussed in his article last week, it was more a function of quickening his timing mechanism, not completely overhauling his setup/hands/hip rotation/etc... To quote that article: "Brunansky admitted earlier in the season that his approach is about getting hitters to have a feel for the swing rather than replicate something visually. Dozier’s problem, Brunansky diagnosed, was his timing." I'd call changing a guy's arm slot a pretty major adjustment as far as pitching is concerned. Changing when a guy gets hits foot down in the batters box to trigger hip rotation on his swing earlier, is not. Physically, that doesn't change anything, whereas an arm slot does for a pitcher.
  24. Steve Lein
    I honestly believe that this is the root of many arm-problems across all of baseball. If a guy has thrown the same for 5, maybe even 10 years by the time he's this high in the minors, those muscles are trained to recover properly with how they are used. His mechanics might not be the best fit for what you look for, but they're going to serve the guy better than overhauling them completely, in my opinion. When you start tweaking with those muscle actions, the whole muscle-memory (whatever the heck you would call it) resiliency isn't going to translate they way it did before. Think of like a hitter. There's not a 'template' for having the perfect swing. You take the guys natural ability and motions, and work with them maximize them. Should be the same for pitchers. Something like changing an arm-slot for a pitcher is definitely messing with those natural abilities and motions.
  25. Steve Lein
    I'm not so bummed out by Gibson's MLB performance thus far. You would definitely like to see better results, but those don't tell the whole story. I honestly thought Gibson had a lot of bad luck that made the numbers look worse than they should/could. That's not to say he would have been amazing without the bad luck, because he wouldn't of been, but could have looked a lot better. In the games I watched, I saw a lot of weakly hit bloopers or ground balls that ended up as hits, and that's a function of his 'stuff' that hopefully regresses/progresses, however you look at it. You can see the movement he has on that sinking fastball, and I'd say quite matter-of-factly that he still doesn't have his slider back (which was his best pitch pre-TJ). Those are things to look forward to. But overall, I'd call getting to the Majors in his first full season back after the surgery a success.
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