Steve Lein

It was good to see this article saying Boyd dropped some weight. I know he was already a big dude when drafted, but even at Spring Training last year you could tell he was carrying something extra. Watched him pitch a few times there, and happened to be standing near the coaches to hear their thoughts at one point. They were not happy with him at all, visibly and audibly expressing such. Hopefully dropping some pounds will bring back some fastball life and also helps elsewhere.

I agree, I threw his name in there because a lot of other people seem to hold him at a relatively high-value for some reason. Point in your favor for not being one of them! My second paragraph from post #63 still holds.

Sorry, I apologize by doing this for us all: You hit the Rosario comp right on the head of the nail.

OK, I can agree with your semantics in regards to "Jason Kubel Light." Mine was explained right before I threw that name out: "was thought of as one of the best pure hitters in the minors before he blew out the knee. I don't consider Arcia to be in that lofty of hitting territory quite yet." The main thing is I don't see Arcia reaching Kubel's pre-injury peak, which is going to be decided this year, in the same leagues, at the same age. As for paragraph 2: Mauer was on a few of those same lists, so was Morneau. So were Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, Jason Bartlett, Denard Span, Michael Cuddyer, Matt Garza... I find Mauer/Morneau/Cuddyer/Span to be plenty comparable to what we have now (quite better, actually), and they were all on that list with Kubel at one point. Not trying to be "fierce" with my argument, but is that any better?

One more note, I know of quite a few people who would disagree in a major way with this sequence of statements. He was a Top 10 Twins prospect for several years, so there were plenty of people out there that saw good things in him. As for the "dude c'mon", I guess we'll have to agree we see it differently. I think you're making a mountain (Oz is better prospect) out of a mole hill (because he reached AA less than a season's worth of time sooner).

I guess in my world hitting .328/.398/.557 at 21 does not equal hitting .377/.453/.667 at (mostly) age 21 at the same level. Both are great, but not "just as good", one is considerably "greater". Career number wise, I'll agree with you, but Kubel still had a significant spike in his peak at the higher levels (compared to Arcia's "peak" at this point being in Rookie ball), while Arcia has been essentially static. Depending on who you talk too, one of those paths may be considered better than the other, but I'll take the extreme peaks of Kubel at AA/AAA. Do note however, this very well could change if Arcia continues to mash at AAA. And again, in reference to their ages, look at the timeframe of when they were the specific ages at the specific levels. I'll just reiterate I don't buy the "Arcia is better because he's a year younger at level x" argument, because it's just not true for where Arcia is now. Arcia may start in AAA this year, which means he will be 21 for almost exactly a month at AAA if he starts there, and Kubel would have turned 22 but a few weeks before reaching AAA. This is incredibly insignificant to me, and no different than trying to make this same comparison to a couple of players drafted out of high school at age 18, but happen to have birthdays a few months apart. Would you make the "They're both at AA, and the younger one doesn't have as good of numbers even though they are both good, but he's younger so he's the better prospect" argument in this case?! No, I know you wouldn't. But that's honestly how I read it. And maybe that's my problem, but I still haven't been convinced otherwise. At least I know we can agree Arcia is the Twins best pure hitting prospect right now, right?! q;)

I'm just trying to show you that if you "lock-step" their progress through the Minors, they are going to end up at AAA at the same exact time. And yes age matters, but I totally believe you're making more out of their "1 year age difference" (which isn't actually 1 exact year in a lock-step fashion in their cases) than should be. If Kubel was 24/25 at AA/AAA, I would agree with your assessment, but that's not what's going on here, both were young for their levels. And as far as progressing goes, fact is both are going to end up going from the GCL to AAA in 5 seasons of MiLB ball, and while Kubel absolutely destroyed AA/AAA, Arcia hasn't hit AAA yet, and was below Kubel in AA numbers. What do you put more stock in, Rookie leagues and A-ball, or AA and AAA?!?!? Kubel was 100% the best hitting prospect the Twins had coming up at this frame of time in their respective MiLB progressions, and while the same could likely be said about Arcia, he's not at the level Kubel displayed. I think this is just a case of Oz is a guy you guys know and have followed, therefore you believe more in him, and there's nothing wrong with that, I'm just trying to be the realist here.

I see it as this: As a 21 year old in AA for half a season, Arcia went .328/.398/.557, with 35 XBH RBI in 69 games. As a 21 year old in AA, Kubel went .377/.453/.667 with 24 XBH in 37 games, then went on to hit .343/.398/.560, with 44 XBH in 90 games at AAA after turning 22. Arcia is going to be a 22 year old in AAA this year (at some point). Do you think he's going to put up the best numbers of his MiLB career (outside of his E-Town season) in Rochester this year? Seems like you think this is a given. And do you also see how the age difference you're trying portray in comparing numbers isn't actually real? They were both 21 when at Fort Myers (and yes I'm aware Oz's #'s there are better), but you're asking for a lot if you expect Arcia to continue that trend at AAA, as he already has not exceeded Kubel's AA numbers. But you are right, I don't consider Arcia to quite be on the level of hitting prospect that Kubel was. This is not a knock at all, as I agree that he's probably going to be very good!

Well, to that, I say why isn't Arcia a top 20 MLB prospect like Kubel was then? This is why I would call it overvaluing him (at this point). Also, I don't buy the one year age difference you are citing to mean as much as you do. If Oz is in AAA next year, he'll be a 22 year old at that level in May. Kubel's birthday is in May as well, and he was also a 22 year old at AAA. (Did I mention May is the best month for birthdays?!)

It's actually quite common with the Twins, at least in regards to K numbers. See also: Chargois, Tyler Duffey, Taylor Rogers, and Josh Burris last year (not really starters though), then Matt Summers in 2011 Manuel Soliman, Pat Dean, and Martire Garcia in 2010 Dan Osterbrock and Shooter Hunt in 2008 You will notice that these rookie level numbers did not accurately predict future success for these guys, so temper some of those feelings. But I do agree that Berrios is likely better than anybody here, and I also think he could rise on Twins Top 10 prospect lists a lot faster than he does through the system. He's an out-of-HS arm with not a lot pro-innings or experience, so it's not like they're going to let him throw 150 innings next year. I'd probably max him out around 120 or lower (for reference, the last HS-drafted arm I can think of who might be worth something, B.J. Hermsen, threw 110 innings the next season after throwing around 50 innings in rookie leagues the year before)

Also, the thing about "good power arms" is, if they have any semblance of command and secondary pitches to be a starter, they get drafted in the top 10 picks, and the Twins hadn't been that high up on the draft board for like 10+ years until last year. Yes, they did draft a bunch of guys who can throw 95+, but none of them are sure bets to stick as starters (or even were starters, and I'd label most as longshots), and several of them are pure relievers, such is why they were not drafted all that high. It's an interesting philosophy that they took in drafting these guys in the hopes one or two may develop into a useful starter, and hopefully it works out, but it's not going to surprise me if it doesn't. But there's also a few of those guys who could rise to the Twins very quickly in a relief role, like Chargois, Melotakis. I even remember some saying Chargois was a guy who should be sent to AA right away in an attempt to get him to the MLB bullpen as quickly as possible, and that he was the best pure RP in the draft. I wonder how quick the Twins will try to move him.

I agree with the "depth" statement. They are looking very good on the farm, and hopefully can add Mark Appel or another top-end-near-ready SP from the 2013 draft to this next year.

Perfect example of reading too much into MiLB stats, especially rookie level ones. Rosario isn't going to launch 25-30 HR's at his peak (that IS a slugger). Maybe 20 at his peak, but where the "power" will show is racking up doubles. As for his arm, it's not a cannon, think a bit better than Span's arm (which is below average, but not close to Revere territory). He'll likely make more contact than Hicks (better avg.), but probably won't match the OBP. I recommend checking this out: Scouting Report: Eddie Rosario (2B) | Baseball Prospect Nation He doesn't have a slugger's body and there's not much room to add on strength. He's 6 foot 170 lbs-ish, and looks smaller than that in person to be quite honest: Bat speed can do a lot for you, but without large® body mass behind it, it's not nearly as potent as you think, doing more for "hitter" attributes than "power" ones. If I'm describing him, Span is a good comp, with less on-base skill and a bit more double power, but not outrageous HR power. I also don't think he'll be as good of a defender in CF (can handle it if need be), and he still needs a lot of work to stick at 2B. As for comparing Arcia to Kubel (pre-injury). Kubel absolutely RAKED, and was thought of as one of the best pure hitters in the minors before he blew out the knee. I don't consider Arcia to be in that lofty of hitting territory quite yet. I like the "Kubel-light" name I've seen thrown around.

Law's top 100 is out, but he posted organization top 10's today as well, you can find the Twins' here (Insider): American League Central top 10 prospects by team - MLB - ESPN Jose Berrios, Max Kepler, and Trevor May are the 3 who missed the top 100.

Right, that's pretty much exactly what I said. Compare this statement to the way you put it above: "Essentially all he is doing is looking at stat lines and scouting reports compiled by people who have actually been able to form opinions about players based on what they have seen, and recycling that information" - It's essentially the same exact thing. Yes, I give much more credibility to a Keith Law because of his resources (or "industry contacts" as I put it) and his background, but that's pretty much a "captain obvious" situation. Regardless, we've already agreed this list has problems.

To be fair, this is what a lot of people do (including almost all of your most favorite Twins bloggers). Keith Law will even tell you a lot of the information he relies upon is from his industry contacts. Yes, he gets out to see a lot of the guys too, but he can't see everybody, and certainly can't spend more than just a day or two out watching one certain guy, so not sure what you're expecting.

I love Kepler. I've said this before, but he's the first guy where seeing him play in-person changed the view I had of him in my head from everything I'd read and the stats he had put up. I saw a player who was far better than what those things told me, and I suspect will be much higher on this list than #10 next year. Check out this double to the opposite field from ST last year: Max Kepler lines a double down the opposite field line (video) on Twitpic He was playing on the Beloit roster, and in the 3 or 4 games I watched, he was their best in-game hitter by far, and I was actually very disappointed with what I saw from Sano and Rosario (and was very surprised Kepler didn't play at all with Beloit during the year). He played 1B on his team in Germany, and I think he's played a few games at 1B in the minors out of necessity (like less than 5 games total). He is still getting bigger, and isn't as fast as he used to be, but I don't see a move back to 1B. I'm guessing LF will be his home, with all that said, he's still plenty fast.

Another snippet from Mike Newman on maybe my favorite Twins prospect: [TABLE] [/TD] "Comment From Fred Your thoughts on Max Kepler? Do you think a breakout season coming off a breakout season is in the cards for him? [/TABLE] http://cdnsl.coveritlive.com/templates/coveritlive/images/icons/fb_share2.png [TABLE=width: 100%] [TD=class: chatmsgtime]1:26 [TD=class: chatmsgtext altcaster_text][TABLE] [/TD] Mike Newman: I would not make a top-100 list without Max Kepler in it. Very nice player with an above average skill set across the board. He's a good bet to break out in 2013." [/TABLE] [/TABLE] And he likes Kepler more than Bubba Starling of the Royals.

JP's actually a good dude (the guy who runs that site). He's very good at pulling snippets of stat lines from players who had good games/streaks, and is worth a follow on Twitter for that alone. But I think this list does show the shortcomings of how he does what he does.

Agreed, but hypothetical question: Would you rather have guy who makes say, 9 appearances, 1 inning each time, and gives up 9 runs in 1 of them and no runs in the other 8; or a guy who gives up 1 run in each of those 9 games? They both have the same ERA over that period, but I would argue the first guy did a lot more good than the second.

I think you need the subscription, but here's the link: http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/prospects/winter-baseball/winter-wonders/2013/2614603.html Eddie Rosario comes in at #2 behind Oscar Taveras of the Cardinals, one of the best prospects in all of baseball. One quote: "...his hit tool is impressive." He hit .338 (2nd in PR League), got on base at a .386 clip, and slugged .496 (4th in PR League). And you'll never guess who came in at #10: Deolis Guerra. 31:5 K:BB ration in 26 innings. Had a 3.81 ERA, but If you take out his last appearance of the season (2.1 IP, 5 ER's), that number was 2.28. Wonder how much of a chance he'll get.

I was also shocked not to see Rosario's name. Definitely a lot more quibbles with this list than others.

I've read a lot of stuff saying that his fielding improved across the board as the season went on (which isn't necessarily saying much), but, many also seem to credit some of that to the arrival of Kennys Vargas at 1B helping cut down the errors on throws. A lot of the errors do seem to come when he tries to do too much - He believes in that arm and will let it fly even if there's no chance he'll get the runner. This can lead to a lot of throws sailing.

I know Kepler has played a lot of 1B, not necessarily in the minors with the Twins, but that's what he was playing in Germany. Of the other names you throw out, I'd say Walker might be the only one where that makes sense.

I agree with Seth, I've been impressed with the athleticism Sano can show at that size. He's not a plodder, and has far more bounce in his step than Cabrera. Could that change over time? Sure. But you keep him there as long as there's a chance. I like RF more as a fall back because of his arm, but Sano is a guy who's bat will play anywhere.