Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

Steve Lein

Twins Daily Contributor
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    3,428

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    1

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by Steve Lein

  1. Steve Lein
  2. Steve Lein
    I love the sound of that outfield (and in every Sim MLB game I've played that's what my 2014 OF has ended up as), and while I don't necessarily agree with the "trade both Willingham and Morneau" part (I want Morneau to come back in a big way this year and stick around), you may be right.
  3. Steve Lein
  4. Steve Lein
    The consensus seems to be Oswaldo has plenty arm for a typical RF, though it isn't necessarily that much "above-average". As Seth says, I wouldn't fret over the arm too much, he won't be even close to Revere-ish out there in that regard. To your second point, he has already slowed down and you can check out this Scouting Report: Scouting Report: Oswaldo Arcia (OF) | Baseball Prospect Nation where it is stated he has "Lost much of his athleticism over the last two years." and also discusses in depth most all of your questions/concerns.
  5. Steve Lein
    Nope. Whereas Pavano might not always give a "quality start", he was a guy that could recover and go 7 or 8 innings after giving up some runs early. Correia is not, and has never been, an "innings eater," and I find the fact that TR & Company are hoping for this to be laughable. "Innings eaters" do exactly what I said Pavano did, which is even in a "bad" start, he would pitch late into games. In Pavano's best year with the Twins (2010), he threw over 100 pitches 17 times in 32 starts, and over 90 in 27 of 32 starts. Kevin Correia last year, threw 100+ pitches twice in 28 starts, 90+ in only half of those 28 starts. And the fact he might get pulled for a pinch hitter says more to me about what they expected to have happen if they sent him out for another inning, compared to saying "he didn't throw that many innings because he got pinch hit for". Take for instance another Pirates pitcher, A.J. Burnett. He threw 100+ pitches 18 times in 31 starts last year, and 90+ in 27 of 31. Most would classify A.J. Burnett as a better pitcher, right? I don't see this as a coincidence. And if you look at Innings pitched during games in the same manner as I do for pitch counts above, you will see the same pattern. Correia has never gone deep into games, which is a trademark of "innings eaters" to me.
  6. Steve Lein
    Can you elaborate a bit about this comparison? I guess I read this as you think Tosoni was the better prospect. I do remember Tosoni being a prospect you really liked (more than other people), and I guess Roberts is the same with me (I'd have him top-15), so I would just like to hear further thoughts as to why (if this is the case)? If I didn't know anything about them and was just glancing at their stats, I'd peg Roberts as the better prospect by far. They are the same size, both bat left-handed and throw right-handed, Roberts was a 5th round pick compared to 36th round (since you've brought that thought up relative to these rankings), Roberts draws walks far more often (11.8% of PA's, and that's not including HBP) than Tosoni does (9.3%) and drew more walks than K's last year, has a career MiLB batting average nearly .050 points higher, and career OPS .150 points higher, has shown more power (in XBH total terms) and is also an adept basestealer, a skill Tosoni has never had. If you go side by side relative to their ages, Roberts has been playing at lower levels, but outperformed Tosoni across the board. I also think with Roberts performance in the AFL this last year, his age, and the fact he was seemingly held back at Low-A due to injuries, that he's going skip Fort Myers and start the year in AA, at age 24, which is the same age Tosoni would have played at AA for some of his season there. At least, I really want this to happen. Hopefully the Twins agree!
  7. Steve Lein
    Vargas is weird. Seems people either see some David Ortiz in him and believe in his power, or they can't get past his inability to catch-up to good fastballs. The 2nd point being the more important one to me considering he's only played low-A ball to this point. The pitching is only going to get better.
  8. Steve Lein
    Cuddyer had a good arm (that's it), but that "throwing arm" doesn't make any outs chasing fly-balls in the OF, and he was not "rangy" in the slightest. This equals a well below average OF.
  9. Steve Lein
    The only quibble I have is Nate Roberts (Probably because he's been a favorite of mine since drafted). I know he's "old," but he's solid-average across the board on tools and how they play in games right now, which is a lot more than can be said about several guys in front of him. If he doesn't skip up to AA to start this year, I think the Twins are doing yet another prospect a disservice 'ala Anthony Slama. My hope is that one of the Middle Infielders (Santana, Michael, Goodrum, Polanco) takes a big step forward this year, as we all know the Twins need one of them too...
  10. Steve Lein
    Don't disagree, but I'm a big Morneau hopeful... Before the injuries, he was the most important hitter in the Twins lineup, and they've been suffering ever since he hasn't been able to perform at those same levels. I would much prefer to see him rebound to .300/.380/.520-ish levels and earn another contract with the Twins instead of him being gone (if he's gone, it likely means he doesn't). And I think the way the Twins have handled him, that they're thinking the same way (e.g.: haven't traded him yet).
  11. Steve Lein
    All of those are fair points. We also have to take into account the Twins current team defense. They aren't the type of Twins team we remember from the 2000's anymore, who were near the top of MLB every season, they are now a poor defensive team. Bad in the OF corners and bad all over the infield. This will also affect those numbers. Florimon and Escobar are better fielders than we've tried to put out there the last 2 season, but they also have to hit some to stay, which they haven't done.
  12. Steve Lein
    Not sure he's quite a "3-hole" hitter either, at least not a typical one. He probably projects to have a good batting average, OK on-base percentage relative to his average (he hasn't shown much discipline yet), and a lot of doubles. I'd probably peg him in the 2-hole with his speed. I'd love to see a 2015 lineup of with the first six being: Hicks, Rosario, Mauer, Sano, Morneau, Arcia.
  13. Steve Lein
    If that happens, or people even thought it was possible, he'd be a top 10 prospect in all of baseball. But it's just not going to.
  14. Steve Lein
    That Rosario could match Sano's HR totals in smaller ballparks... Listen, Rosario is 6'0" (probably actually more like 5'10") 170-ish pounds, Sano is 6'3"+, 235+ lbs - that's a HUGE difference in muscle mass and power-profile-projection. Also, It's been witnessed by every scout on the planet that Sano can moonshot balls over fences, while Rosario get's his HR's in a more line-drive capacity. And finally, from day 1 of scouts watching them both play at Elizabethton, they said Rosario wouldn't be able to continue with monster HR totals as he moved up (and if Rosario was going to hit 16 more HR's in those 30 games, I'm pretty sure that would be some kind of record). While I don't think Sano's HR totals are going to be suppressed all that much by the Florida State League, I do think Rosario's will be, for all the reasons stated above.
  15. Steve Lein
    I guess you're more optimistic about this pitching staff than I. With Pelfrey, Worley, and Correia coming to the AL from the NL, I see a general dip in their performance compared to ones you hope they match. Worley hasn't thrown more than 130 innings yet, Pelfrey won't reach that many innings unless he's on the staff to start the season (which doesn't sound like he will be), and frankly, I think Correia is going to get Marquis-ed or Blackburn-ed (I do hope I'm wrong about that), which leads us right back to those same guys who we had to rely on last year. Will this group post a better team starter ERA than 5.40? Yeah, it's kind of impossible not too (knock on wood), but when you have the 2nd worst staff in all of baseball you can't expect a significant improvement without going after upper echelon talent which is significantly better than what you already had. I don't think these guys are, and even if they shave a full run off that team ERA, they still would be below the MLB average starter ERA, which was 4.19 last year.
  16. Steve Lein
    Depends on how you look at it. If we're talking for 2013, it's a D+ at best. They got worse for 2013 by losing Span, Revere, Baker, Pavano, etc..., thus even a C-grade is too high if we call that "average". Worley is a good addition, though that doesn't offset the other loses, and Pelfrey/Correia don't improve a single thing in the rotation in my opinion. More potential innings of poor-level pitching doesn't strike me as the improvement Terry Ryan is spinning it as. If we're talking organizationally, I might give them as high as a B. They brought in some SP prospects who are more highly regarded than any others they had, so they improved a weakness with a strength. But the moves still weren't blockbuster-organization-transforming trades, so an A is out of the question.
  17. Steve Lein
    Eddie won't put up the power Sano will. This was already demonstrated last year in Beloit (28 HR's vs 12 HR's). BUT whereas Sano will hit more out of the yard, Rosario will rack up more doubles, so I'd expect their XBH totals at the end of the year to be very similar. And as pure hitters go, I'll still take Arcia's bat over Eddie's for tops in the system.
  18. Steve Lein
    I'm a little concerned Rich Harden's name didn't even show up in your article... I'd rather have him in the rotation over anyone else not named Diamond/Worley until it's proven he can not do it (which I hope doesn't happen).
  19. Steve Lein
    Lets get the facts straight here. Before the 2012 season, May was a near-unanimous consensus #1 prospect, as a starter, for the Phillies organization. There have been only 5 games in his MiLB career where he didn't start (in 102 total), and 3 of those came in rookie ball after being drafted. In his first taste of AA ball this year, he finally saw some struggles, posting a 4.87 ERA, BUT, he also struck out over a batter per inning, which to me, is a good sign for improvement moving forward given his track record of doing so. Take his stints at High-A ball for example. First taste, he struggled, walking almost a batter an inning to go along with striking out well over 1 batter an inning. When he repeated, he walked almost the same total number of batters, in over twice the amount of innings, and struck out more per inning than the year before (demonstrated improvement). If he's destined to start the year repeating AA ball in the Eastern League, I'd expect that trend to continue, and he'll force his way to AAA midway through the year. But I'm also not going to be surprised if he starts the year with Rochester after pitching ~150 innings each of the last 2 years, as the Twins organization is seriously lacking pitching talent in the upper levels, even with Gibson and Hendriks.
  20. Steve Lein
    Seems Marcum is heading for a 1 year deal because of the injury concerns. That being the case, I'd go as high as 1yr/10mil. When/if healthy, he'd easily be the staff's best pitcher on paper, and the type of upgrade Twins should have been trying to make from the start instead of a guy like Correia, who I don't feel improves anything when there already is Hendriks/Gibson/DeVries/Deduno/et. al around (he's not going to be any better than them AND is now paid considerably more).
  21. Steve Lein
    Most 'experts' I read say RF is more likely than 1B, citing that he's athletic enough for it and the fact that his 1 major defensive asset is his arm, which would be wasted at 1B. BUT, there's also a lot more of them saying he's going to stick at 3B now - they've always stated his defensive problems seemed to stem from lack of focus, which he appears to be changing for the better. I don't think the FSL is going to kill his power much, it's great enough for the stadiums not to matter.
  22. Steve Lein
    Huh, that's different from what I've read about Goodrum... If he isn't going to be a SS it's certainly not because he's going to "outgrow" the position. He's very lanky (I don't see muscle/body-mass-projection that would move him off the position), and is definitely still learning the position, but he's got the arm, hands, and athleticism for it. In fact, he's my best hope for a future SS that I see in the organization. This ball left the yard in a big way at ST last year:
  23. Steve Lein
    If you were putting together a team made up of Twins MiLB-ers from any level, to play against teams of the same mold from everywhere else, what would it look like? In putting this together, I weighed mostly projection and players who have played full season ball, but would like to see how others would do it as well. Here's mine (with projected 2013 level): Lineup: 1. CF - Aaron Hicks (AAA/MLB) 2. 2B - Eddie Rosario (A+) 3. RF - Oswaldo Arcia (AAA) 4. 3B - Miguel Sano (A+) 5. 1B - Chris Colabello (AAA) 6. DH - Kennys Vargas (A+) 7. LF - Joe Benson (AAA) 8. C - Chris Herrmann (AAA) 9. SS - Danny Santana (AA) Bench: OF - Nate Roberts (I sure hope he starts in AA) OF - Danny Ortiz (AA) IF - Brain Dozier (AAA, could swap him and Santana pretty easily) IF - Levi Michael (AA) Bat - Lance Ray (AA) Starting Rotation: 1. Kyle Gibson (AAA/MLB) 2. Alex Meyer (A+/AA) 3. Trevor May (AA/AAA) 4. Liam Hendriks (AAA) 5. B.J. Hermsen (AAA) Bullpen: Spot starter/long relief: Andrew Albers (AA) MR: Lester Oliveros (AAA) MR: Bruce Pugh (AA/AAA) Setup: Michael Tonkin (AA) Setup: Corey Williams (A+) Closer: Anthony Slama (AAA, though, like everyone else thinks, why not MLB?!) What say you?
  24. Steve Lein
    I don't think the Twins are quite a top 5 system yet, they have drastic holes for talent around the infield, certainly not anybody that has shown they can hit AND field, lots of either-or's or haven't shown's (there is some promise - Goodrum, Michael, Polanco). They'd rank 5-10 I think, and 7 or 8 seems to be the spot most places have them. Also, even with their recent Meyer and May acquisitions, they are very light on top-end Starting Pitching, and the bulk of that talent has yet to reach even AA. However, they are going to be well-represented in top 100 lists, as I think they have 7 legitimate candidates: Sano, Buxton, Hicks, Arcia, Rosario, Meyer, May. I also think Sano and Buxton will crack a lot of top 20's. Personally, I can't wait for Seth's Prospect Handbook again this year. I always enjoy that and was grateful my top 10 list has been included before. My top 10 as it currently sits is: 10 - Max Kepler 9 - Jose Berrios 8 - Trevor May (could rise very quickly if he bounces back, was an almost unanimous #1 prospect for Phillies going into 2012) 7 - Kyle Gibson 6 - Eddie Rosario 5 - Oswaldo Arcia 4 - Alex Meyer 3 - Aaron Hicks 2 - Byron Buxton 1 - Miguel Sano
  25. Steve Lein
    Tickets are on sale to the general public on Saturday, January 12th. I've seen multiple sites with this date, including: Minnesota Twins - 2013 Schedule | 2009 Schedule | Spring Training Online Season Ticket holders get access a few days before that.
×
×
  • Create New...