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Steve Lein

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Everything posted by Steve Lein

  1. Steve Lein
    Diamond's ERA/Win Total etc.. are all very good right now, but as Seth says, like Blackburn, he's doing what he's doing in a non-typical fashion for a #1 or even #3 type starter, which is pretty much unsustainable long term. Keith Law's point I think is that if you look how some define #1 through #5 type starters, Diamond would fall into the #5 category. Look at who the Twins have in their starting rotation right now, of course Diamond is the Twins #1 this year, but an individual team's #1 or #3 is often times a lot different than a scout's classification of a #1 or #3. I'd say every starter the Twins are rolling out right now falls into the "fifth starter" category, most probably the "borderline fifth starter/spot starter" in actuality.
  2. Steve Lein
    Well to me, #22 to #38 isn't really that big of a difference as far as rating who's the BPA. As far as none of the pitchers being locks to be a true ace, I get that, but show me a SP in the Twins system who projects as even a #2 right now? They need pitching talent in the system in the form of top-end-of-the-rotation projection much more than they need another toolsy outfielder. Don't get me wrong, I don't hate the Buxton pick, but they're never going to solve the SP problem if they don't address it, which they could have (and should have IMO) this year with that pick.
  3. Steve Lein
    Pretty much my thoughts on this year's draft exactly. When the subjective "BPA" plays a position that is already overloaded with talent throughout the system, the shortcomings in the organizational talent pool should be taken into account much more than usual (pitching, pitching, pitching...).
  4. Steve Lein
    As far as body type? Sure...
  5. Steve Lein
    The POINT, is Antony is making it sound like we have some super-awesome-young-core-nucleus of Starting Pitching that is going to turn the Twins fortunes around sooner rather than later, and that's not even close to the truth. They don't even have a core-nucleus of Starting Pitching to form a rotation next year. Then there's the fact that if every other team in baseball put together a list of 5 starting pitchers that put a "gleam" in their GM or Assistant GM's eye, that this list would get laughed at by 90% of them. As for your comments on each guy: Berrios: Sure, he can get a gleam for what he's doing now in the Rookie Leagues, but how does that help the Twins? Gibson: You basically said the same thing I did. Hendriks: My point with the "poor mans Radke" comment is that he's not a Rotation Savior, a "poor mans Radke" certainly has value. Hernandez: Exactly. So why is he on this list? I guess I'm a glass half-empty, and you're a glass half-full guy, when it comes to this.
  6. Steve Lein
    I have no idea why this puts a "gleam in Antony's eye." I'd wager you wouldn't be able to find another team in as bad of shape as far as SP-prospects-coming-up as the Twins are. They are basically ridiculed for their draft this year on that front as well, as pretty much every Pitching prospect they drafted early (except Berrios) profiled as a RP. All these guys have questions. Berrios - just was drafted, do you really know what you have after the ~40 IP he'll throw in rookie leagues this year? Gibson - Looks good so far on his comeback, but can he keep it up? Hendriks - Love this guy, but will he figure out the Majors? I think he will, but he's a poor-mans Radke. Hernandez - At least in my view, a guy viewed as a #5 would never put a "gleam" in my eye. Vasquez - He's 28. His last 10 starts mean about the same to me as giving P.J. Walters, Cole DeVries, and Sam Deduno opportunities this year. You go to him because you don't have any other options. There's only 1 spot in this rotation spoken for next year, with Scott Diamond. And I agree with Mackey for once, lets not get carried away with what we think Diamond is. It's those Free Agent Starting Pitchers this offseason that should put a "gleam" in Antony's eye, not anybody that's already here.
  7. Steve Lein
    Law responded to a question in the comments of that article, about Sano going to 1B: "If third doesn't work out I'd put him in right field. He's not a slug." This is same I've heard from almost every take I've read and have seen in person. Sano is a big boy, but he's not exactly "slow". He gets moving pretty good around the bases and is in no way pushing a plow out there. 1B is usually meant for guys who have no business playing elsewhere because of their combination of size/speed (big AND slow), etc...(like Vargas) but Sano's not in this category... yet. He's a better athlete at this stage than a 1B-man usually is (which is often why some give hope for him sticking at 3B). Plus he's got that rocket arm that would absolutely be wasted at 1B...
  8. Steve Lein
    Quips from Kevin Goldstein on his Beloit trip: Kenny Vargas: "Despite the 1158 OPS, he merely falls into the mildly interesting pile, but is worth keeping an eye on." Also mentions how he demonstrated his skill set in the game he watched: Massive power was shown on HR to CF, good approach by taking a walk, and difficulty with breaking balls by striking out twice. Also mentions he is 22 yrs old playing in Low-A... Miguel Sano: Apparently every time KG has watched him, he's hit a HR, but also says "there's simply no way he stays at third base". Interesting note he brings up, is with his 24 HR's, he has 50% more home runs than anyone else in the league (2nd player on leaderboard has only 16). He also had some nice notes about Mason Melotakis: "left-handed power reliever [] touched 95 with a promising [] slider"; and Matt Tomshaw: "it wouldn't shock me to see Tomshaw continue to find success with an outside shot at making it as a reliever." One other note on a Twins 2012 draftee from another BP article, on J.O. Berrios: "the few pro scouts that have seen Berrios think the Twins may have really found something here."
  9. Steve Lein
    I don't really agree with all of that either, at least in the way I think you're trying to demonstrate. To me, it's an injustice to Mauer himself and the fans that he's not being surrounded by other needed talent that could put them over the top to contend.
  10. Steve Lein
    Replied before I saw Nick's response. This is exactly what I'm getting at with the word "injustice".
  11. Steve Lein
    The whole thing is, BPA is subjective. Was Buxton far and away a better player to draft at #2 than a pitcher like Appel? I honestly do not think so, and in such a case, the needs of the team should play a part.
  12. Steve Lein
    That's not the type of injustice I'm talking about (his contract certainly is NOT an injustice...). You have a once in a lifetime player on your roster, and you aren't doing everything in your power to surround him with the other needs of the team to legitimately contend for a World Series title. That is the injustice.
  13. Steve Lein
    haha, no worries. Something while reading it just made me wonder, but the sincerity is there as well. I started a "Max Kepler" thread not too long after I watched him (before the "adopt-a-prospect" series was started), trying to see if anyone else would jump on the bandwagon. Now perhaps they are.
  14. Steve Lein
    "And not doing so would be an injustice to the franchise's most valuable (and highly-paid) asset: Joe Mauer." - This was (and has been for other arguments as well) my argument for why the Twins needed to draft a pitcher (such as Mark Appel), and not necessarily the BPA (Buxton) this year in the draft. Pretty soon Mauer's "prime years" window will be gone, and during that time the Twins will never have had an ace, or even a true #1 (or even #2) pitcher to compliment him. "Injustice" is a great understatement to me. They're not going to spend the money on one in Free Agency, and I don't recall them ever sending off a major Prospect to get a stud SP via trade. Thus if they ever want one, they have to draft one. This year was the best chance at that they were going to get.
  15. Steve Lein
    Walker is basically 2 years older than Sano, and actually his HR pace is still slightly behind what Sano's was at E-Town last year, as are his avg./obp/ops (Walker's only hitting around .250). Walker does have the power, but most everyone says Sano is the best power-hitting prospect in all the minors right now. Hard to make a case for him having more potential, but it is fun to see the high HR totals.
  16. Steve Lein
    Paul - Not sure if you're mocking me or being serious...maybe a little of both?! But he's the first Twins prospect In my years of following them where watching him play in person drastically altered my opinion of him from what I had formed reading and watching elsewhere. In my opinion, he's legit, and should be up much higher on peoples Top 10 prospect lists next year.
  17. Steve Lein
    I've honestly been surprised he didn't play with Beloit this year. I realize he had to play with somebody's roster during ST, but he played with Beloit's while I was down there this year and he stood out during in-game action more than anybody (far more). Wasn't really all that impressed with Sano or Rosario's in game action then (other things about them impressed though, obviously), but Kepler impressed mightily. Here's one of his hits I caught on tape: http://www.twitpic.com/8zswq4 (Every time I saw him bat, he hit something like this. Every time.) Since then, he basically been my favorite prospect. It was kind of frustrating having to wait until June for him to play. What I like best about his season with E-Town so far (besides the power that's shown up), is he's walked just as many times as he's struck out....
  18. Steve Lein
    And just an FYI in relation to Span in Metrodome vs. Target Field: In 2009 (metrodome), in 145 games, Span had 34 XBH's. This year (Target Field), in 101 games, he has 34 XBH's (career high in 2B's already). If I go park specific, in 2009 (Metrodome), in 73 games: 8 2B's, 6 3B's, 5 HR's. (.446 slugging) In 2012 (Target Field), in 51 games: 20 2B's, 2 3B's, 2 HR's. (.502 slugging) I'll take 2012 Span in TF over 2009 Span in Metrodome any day of the week... And I'll keep the reply with quote in mind, I don't like clogging up my posts with them usually, though!
  19. Steve Lein
    Brock - I've been responding to Buck, your points pretty much agree with mine in relation to his.
  20. Steve Lein
    Span's OPS dropped from his rookie season before he had any concussions... But regardless, to me, Revere's problem isn't pitch selection, which is why I don't see much improvement in OBP/OPS (will always be driven by his average). My reasoning: He's actually pretty good at taking pitches I think, but he's also much better than most at making contact with the ball when he swings. Mauer is a great "hitter", right? Well, Mauer has K'd in 13.4% of his Plate Appearances this year. Revere? 8.0%. When he swings, he puts the ball in play. I am convinced if you looked it up (perhaps someone here knows how), Revere would have a very far below the league average swing-and-miss percentage. He doesn't foul that many balls off either. What I'm getting at, is if he swings, he is almost assuredly putting the ball out there for someone to have to field. If he wants to improve his OBP by drawing walks, he's going to have to leave that bat on his shoulder far more often than he is capable of, I think, because of this. He's a great "contact hitter", which in his case, is a detriment to the On-base skills you're hoping he can develop.
  21. Steve Lein
    ^^... So why hasn't Span improved from his first 2 seasons, he was 24 to when he came up?! You're saying it like it's a foregone conclusion Revere will put up better numbers (or any player for that matter as they get older), you can not say that with the certainty I think you are intending. Like I mentioned previously, it's like you're expecting Revere to be a perennial .360/.400 hitter from next year on out, which is flat out impossible. But I do agree, a .750 OPS guy with his range is absolutely a "pretty good player", but it's also not exactly an All-Star, and I'd wager a .750 OPS is closer to Revere's peak season during his career than it is to his career average-OPS when its all said and done.
  22. Steve Lein
    Dozier's been okay for the Twins at SS this year, but he is and always has been a better fit for second base than SS in the majors. He's played there for the Twins because he pretty much has to. If were talking what the Twins need to bring in next year though, I wouldn't even think about signing a position player until the pitching questions are addressed or all avenues have been explored on that front.
  23. Steve Lein
    ^ exactly.
  24. Steve Lein
    and I didn't include Revere's .930 OPS season at Beloit because it's an obvious outlier in his MiLB career (remember, never above .750 anywhere else...). His OPS at AAA this year was .700, while hitting .330, like he is now with Twins. Please don't ever think Revere is going to be closer to the .930 OPS guy he was at Low-A than the .750 OPS guy he is now in the majors...
  25. Steve Lein
    Higher OPS... okay, by .006 pts... Can and will Revere get better? He certainly can and I'd expect improvements in some places (not necessarily hitting, a .329 average isn't exactly easy to keep duplicating), but that's not a sure thing, this could also be his best year (say, if he follows what Span has done...are you expecting him to be a .360/.400 hitter next year now?!), which wouldn't be all that close to Span's best year. My point is that Span is much more valuable as a hitter than Revere, as his obp/slugging, and thus, OPS, is not driven solely by his batting average.
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